Re trading...I used to trade a LOT on the stock market, especially when I just started (late in the last century).
In one year i had about 1000 trades and not much cap gains to show, albeit I was quite 'profitable', still.
Later on, life showed me that it is not the quantity of your trades, but their quality that could give you an edge.
That was a second period with some trades, but not too many.
In bitcoin, every time I tried to trade it, it went spectacularly bad as far as timing is concerned, especially in 2017 when I listened to Vinny and sold some btc: not a large %, but still...
Basically, I sold at then ATH only to see it go up 16X in the SAME year. I did something active with the proceeds so did not "lose" all that appreciation, but it was annoying as i traded when i shouldn't had to.
Wow!!!!
That is a good example, but a really bad experience, since so many folks likely realize that around February/March 2017 Vinny was a fairly credible dweeb telling people between $800 and $1,200 that for sure he had it on good word that the BTC price was going below $500 and then at that point BIG money would be "backing up the truck" to load up on BTC, so it was like a sure 50%-ish drop in the BTC price that did not end up happening at all. From there, the BTC price ended up more than doubling in a mater of a few months.. and then getting stuck in $2k to $4k for a short period before going all the way up to $19,666 by December.. before correcting back down to $6k-ish early in 2018 and then several more times in 2018 correcting back to $6k-ish and then later in 2018 down to $3.2k-ish..
A bad thing of that likely lesson is that a guy gets put into a waiting (trading mode) rather than a buying mode...even though I personally was mostly done buying by early 2017, and I mostly was just holding and engaging in my ladder situation, which I considered maintenance and insurance rather than trading since what I was doing mostly ONLY dealt with small parts of my BTC holdings.
After that, I practically did not trade btc at all: not selling or significant buying, just hodling and small time mining with small buying as well.
Instead, I trade stocks to 'scratch' that itch, but not too much trading occurs.
In fact, I rarely even look at individual stocks midday, albeit I could never become one of the bogleheads with 70/30 VTI/BND allocation-it would bore me to smithereens.
That selling behavior ended up locking you mentally out of BTC, since no one wants to buy back for prices higher than they sold... and yeah, I should feel bad for you, instead of mocking you, even though it is courteous of you to describe that mistake.. which yeah, I understand how so many guys get fucked by selling way too much corn too soon, and it is not a good place to be because it becomes almost impossible to get back in once a guy has taken such a commitment.
However, lately, I start getting a bit of an urge to sell some btc, but with my prior 'history' I know that exactly when I want to sell (or soon after) btc is prone to rally
.
I think that is why whenever we choose to sell, we should not be expecting to buy back, so we have to pick an amount that we would be willing to accept not buying back.. but yeah, I know, you think differently from me... you want to buy back cheaper.. which may or may not end up working out, then you end up selling too much too soon, and what good does that do? If you are overinvested, then trimming off some stash should not be any kind of a problem. 5% or something.. or maybe even 10%.. I would not do it, but that is just me... but then again, since I let my own BTC compound on itself so many times, I would not need to sell very much in order to feel pretty good about having a lot of cash. I suppose there could be some BIG purchases that I could make, and I suppose if I really wanted, then I would just do it, and not worry so much if I am doing it around this price, since even this price is much better than where we were for most of 2024 (largely between $55k and $70k)
I guess one reason to potentially consider selling is a bad market configuration overall with SP500 being extended about 2X from the average P/E plus tariffs "war", etc, etc.
However, the timing of a mean-adjustment could take years and not affect btc prices much, eliminating the need to sell any btc soon.
In our area, house prices seem to decline a little bit currently or at least people are getting discounts.
The economy might be slowing down a little as well, but it is not clear if markets would throw a fit, decline 30% and "demand" lower interest rates soon.
In such scenario, bitcoin would decline first, but then would be prone to a pop up due to new QE, just like it did in 2020.
None of what you say sounds compelling, and surely you are not even thinking about selling more than 50%? I hope. Anyhow, why not just sell 10% or something like that instead of going through uncertainties. Surely I think that there are a lot of reasons not to sell, but geez cannot blame any guy for shaving off 5% or even 10%, even if I personally see no reason to do it...selling 1% or 2% seems like a fuck ton to me.. but that's just me.
Oh by the way, I frequently tell the story of some construction costs that I had in 2018/2019, and quite a few bills ended up coming due way too early than I anticipated, and it seems to me that at that time, I ended up selling around 3.5% of my BTC stash to cover my bills (and the BTC prices might have had been between $4k and $4,200 at the time that I sold), and maybe I was able to recover around half of the amount that I sold.. but it becomes a bit unclear how much I was able to recover because surely when we sell extra amounts, we cannot always compare where we are at as compared to where we would have had been, even though we did end up taking a fork in the road and having to make the choice...and surely part of the reason I had to sell as much as I did is based on a kind of presumption that I did not care, and if needed I could have sold around $6k or $7k.. but then all of a sudden trading prices dropped nearly in half...and then my bills were coming in...so sometimes mistakes are made...but like right now, if I had similar bills, I probably could sell only less than half of a percent of my stash and end up with more cash (perhaps double the cash) than I ended up with selling 3.5-ish% of my then BTC stash in late 2018.
[edited out]
Inasmuch as we are in this forum together we are just like one big family and as such I think there is need for us to be more polite when quoting someone opinion. However, trading is just like gambling because both have similar risk which may result to significant gain or to a total lost of asset if not careful enough.
Accumulating Bitcoin for long term plan either by lump sum or DCA depending on the dip price or the strategy that is more fovarable to you is more preferable to trading because if you have enough Bitcoin in stock you are likely to make huge profit in the future by selling fraction of it when the price is high.
Yeah, but why is this about me? I think that most people do not have enough BTC and they are having dilemmas to accumulate bitcoin in terms of considering how aggressive they should be in their buys and getting lured into trading.
You are pretty new to the forum with only around 10 months of being registered. Are you trying to suggest that you have it figured out? Did you start investing into bitcoin around the time of your forum registration or some other time?
I have difficulties considering too many scenarios that you would have had been able to accumulate enough BTC in the past 10 months, even if you had front loaded your BTC investment.. but I have no clue what you have been doing. Many guys are not able to front load their investment, and even if they did in the last 10 months or so, they are still likely not even feeling their BTC holdings to be in a very solid position, even though it likely feels better to be 50% or more in profits rather than being in the negative, yet being in profits can give guys a false sense of security in terms of their likely own needs to be continuing to accumulate BTC.
So I doubt this is about me, since somewhere close to 99% of the worlds population are either no coiners or low coiners, and perhaps even some of the guys who have BTC do not understand bitcoin enough to realize that they are a low coiner and that they should be buying rather than trying to figure out what the BTC price may or may not do from here.. Buy for a whole cycle, and then let's talk about possible adjustments that you might be considering.
Even look at Biodom (a two - going on 3 - cycle-ish veteran), having his own dilemma about whether to HODL or to SODL... .. Need I say more?
Upgrading the storage drive for the main BC/CL node.
Just got a 2TB since that should last a couple years at least... I mean the first TB took ~15?
That said... I would like to see sovereign scaling solutions to continue to be developed... But I am not developing them so I can only really hope. We could prob kick the can a little with a small block size increase... never mind. That's prob not gonna happen.
Anyway... little node updated today!
Seem like incongruent thoughts to me. How could a block size increase seem feasible when we have had empty blocks for nearly a week? Not that bitcoin is failing, but block size increase seems to be the opposite of what is needed currently...at this particular moment.
screenshots that give you pause
Why pause?
Just lay it out there, you big blocker Roger Ver supporting nutjob
(said with endearment).
Say it like it is
(from your perspective).
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