Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

hey guys go back and find my posts on the World Cup.
 
hint not once did I compare it to American football






by the way

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-tension-between-trump-administration-182353439.html


the pope is predicting a bad ending for the musky trumpeter

"His letter includes a warning for administration officials: “What is built on the basis of force, and not on the truth about the equal dignity of every human being, begins badly and will end badly,” he wrote."

taken from the link I post.


I just want to say bitcointalk has been a blast and if we all end in a blast at least I had some fun on bitcointalk.

oh so far Joe Biden ath of 109k is beating the current number of 95.3k soundly

[d_eddie]

However, from my quick glance I haven't been able to understand how he infers USD amounts from blockchain transactions.

I think the basic assumption is that people tend to send transactions of $1 $10  $20  $50  $100  $500  $1k  $2k or $10k, so the USD amount stays the same but depending on current valuation people need to send different amounts of BTC to transfer the equivalent of $100 or $10k etc.. If you can determine which transactions are like $500 worth probably, you can deduce the price.

Still kinda magic to me  - but really cool

That makes sense, but it can only work within 1 order or magnitude, unless you have an external oracle. In other words, what looks like $10 could be $1 or $100 depending on the actual dollar price that was paid for that transaction - which we don't know, since it is exactly what we're trying to estimate.

[psycodad]

However, from my quick glance I haven't been able to understand how he infers USD amounts from blockchain transactions.

I think the basic assumption is that people tend to send transactions of $1 $10  $20  $50  $100  $500  $1k  $2k or $10k, so the USD amount stays the same but depending on current valuation people need to send different amounts of BTC to transfer the equivalent of $100 or $10k etc.. If you can determine which transactions are like $500 worth probably, you can deduce the price.

Still kinda magic to me  - but really cool

That makes sense, but it can only work within 1 order or magnitude, unless you have an external oracle. In other words, what looks like $10 could be $1 or $100 depending on the actual dollar price that was paid for that transaction - which we don't know, since it is exactly what we're trying to estimate.

I thought that it just assumes that most transactions are $100 (peak of the stencil) but they mention this in the sauce which seems to side with what you said above:

Code:

# Historical testing of the Oracle shows prices that are accurate within the variance 
# seen by different bitcoin exchanges themselves. The date and price ranges expected to work 
# for this version (version 8) are from 2023-12-15 to present and from $5k to $500k. 
# The previous version of the code (version 7) worked flawlessly from 2020 to 2024 before 
# ordinal related transactions dramatically changed the character of on-chain output patterns. 

[JSRAW]

~snip~

Impressive list.

I would look at viewing figures though, say viewing figures for the biggest game in NFL and the biggest game in football so the World Cup Final or the Champions League Final.

FIFA World Cup Final Beat Super Bowl LVI By More Than One BILLION Viewers In TV Ratings
https://www.si.com/fannation/soccer/futbol/news/how-fifa-world-cup-final-beat-super-bowl-lvi-in-tv-ratings



Personal opinion - Not that many people outside of the US care about American Football.
Football (soccer) is undisputedly the most popular sport in the world and it’s not even close. 

Add the biggest game in cricket India vs Pakistan to the list as well.

https://sporticos.com/en-gb/news/top-5-most-viewed-sports-events-all-time-tv-streaming-viewership-records

 

[Ricardo11]

BlackRock Buys $50 Million Bitcoin as Fidelity, Grayscale and Invesco Sell.


X

These asset managers' sales of Bitcoin are likely being made via their respective Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts suggest the move could be a way to rebalance their assets strategically. Meanwhile, BlackRock deviated from these other asset managers with a significant $50 million invested in purchasing Bitcoin. That is over 515 BTC bought, while others actively sold their Bitcoin holdings.


This development signals that the world’s largest asset manager remains confident in the long-term value of BTC. Financial experts consider BlackRock’s accumulation of Bitcoin a bullish signal for the asset, even when others have opted to reduce exposure. As of the last count, BlackRock held over $60 billion worth of BTC and has continued to increase its assets.
News source

[JSRAW]

So much hate for President Musk and First Orange Man, it's disgusting.

It's actually a good thing that Elon's in charge. Donny boy is such a bumbling incompetent at running things that he managed to turn an almost half billion dollar inheritance from his grandfather's brothels and father's slumlord holdings into a multi-billion dollar debt. Imagine if the Dumpster was actually in charge?

https://forward.com/fast-forward/424037/ivanka-trump-president-trump-samantha-bee-debt/

 

Both are disrupters and if you don't have any skin in the game then it's fun to witness all the shenanigans. Even, Netflix won't provide such entertainment. 

I reckon the fallout between them would be something as both of them are egoistic individuals with an Alpha mentality. Happy about what they are doing with USAID tho. In the name of aid previous regime was fucking up everything around the world.

Yeah the best thing U.S. Agency for International Development did was brand themselves USAID... makes the public think they are a humanitarian government organization, when in fact they are a front for the CIA and also a way to funnel money back into the hands of the corrupt!

Even Missionary, Islamists, terrorists and separatist groups in India.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Not sure what you have against Trump, but statements like the above are sound bites from MSM... you're better than that JimboToronto..

I try not to be brainwashed by "influencer" propaganda on mainstream social media sites like Youtube Twittex and other blogs.

I find the Biden Derangement Syndrome hilarious.

Somehow along the way, proving or disproving information versus misinformation and disinformation (a.k.a. fact checking) seems to have become taboo. Creeping idiocracy.

Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. Likewise, never attribute to stupidity what can be explained by malice. A mix of malice and stupidity is really bad.

I'm not against everything Little Donnie stands for. I hate woke bullshit.

I really support tax reduction. That's why I'm flabbergasted at the tariffs. Doesn't he realize tariffs are taxes, ultimately borne by the consumers?

Maybe in the next election voters will have a real choice instead of having to pick between two losers like in the last five elections.

In the meantime all I can do is laugh at the pathetic situation and hope tanks and troops don't start rolling across borders. I have family and friends on both sides of both the Canada/U.S. and Mexico/U.S. borders. Stand tall Canada and Mexico. Don't give in to bullies, especially not stupid ones.

Today's USA is very different from the one in which I lived in 1968. At that time I would have been happy to emigrate. Now I absolutely would not want to be a U.S. citizen. How times change.

[cxtreenal]

The weapon to increase the worth of Bitcoin is in the individuals. We (individuals) hold 70% so keep your holdings safe.

Your holdings are not for sale, pin it.



https://x.com/Saylorsatsire/status/1889652596018675877

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Rank	Sport	Audience	Regions
1	Football (Soccer)	4 Billion	Europe, Africa, Asia, America
2	Cricket	2.5 Billion	Asia, Australia, UK
3	Basketball	2.5 Billion	America, Oceania, Middle East
4	Field Hockey	2.2 Billion	Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia
5	Tennis	1 Billion	Europe, Asia, America
6	Volleyball	900 Million	Europe, Australia, Asia, America
7	Table Tennis	850 Million	Europe, Africa, Asia, America
8	Baseball	500 Million	America, Japan
9	Rugby	475 Million	Oceania, South Africa, England
10	Golf	450 Million	America, Oceania, Europe

 Well since we were talking about it I decided to do some (limited) research.  Some of the stats seemed outdated as basketball has really taken off these last few years so this table is only an approximation based on numbers I was able to find online. The popularity of Field Hockey blew my mind.

Cricket s not a global sport but a sport limited to countries that is ruled by Great Britain in the past i.e. there are 8 to 10 countries where cricket is major sports. It has audience of 2.2 billion mainly because it's the most popular sports in most populated countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Field hockey is played in more countries as compared to Cricket and that's why it's included in Olympics also. Only Pakistan has adopted it as national sports. There are hockey leagues played in India and may be few EU countries have hockey leagues also. But field hcokey s definatly not that popular to be at number 4.

[cAPSLOCK]

One of the few times I got rugged because of nyknyc. I almost never left coins on an exchange,  but I had some sitting in btce when they were shut down.

I take that back feds. I'm just making shit up...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Soft Crem]

Rank	Sport	Audience	Regions
1	Football (Soccer)	4 Billion	Europe, Africa, Asia, America
2	Cricket	2.5 Billion	Asia, Australia, UK
3	Basketball	2.5 Billion	America, Oceania, Middle East
4	Field Hockey	2.2 Billion	Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia
5	Tennis	1 Billion	Europe, Asia, America
6	Volleyball	900 Million	Europe, Australia, Asia, America
7	Table Tennis	850 Million	Europe, Africa, Asia, America
8	Baseball	500 Million	America, Japan
9	Rugby	475 Million	Oceania, South Africa, England
10	Golf	450 Million	America, Oceania, Europe

 Well since we were talking about it I decided to do some (limited) research.  Some of the stats seemed outdated as basketball has really taken off these last few years so this table is only an approximation based on numbers I was able to find online. The popularity of Field Hockey blew my mind.

Cricket s not a global sport but a sport limited to countries that is ruled by Great Britain in the past i.e. there are 8 to 10 countries where cricket is major sports. It has audience of 2.2 billion mainly because it's the most popular sports in most populated countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Field hockey is played in more countries as compared to Cricket and that's why it's included in Olympics also. Only Pakistan has adopted it as national sports. There are hockey leagues played in India and may be few EU countries have hockey leagues also. But field hcokey s definatly not that popular to be at number 4.

My personal opinion is that more than ever, different sports are popular in different countries of the world like football is very popular in most of the countries and I think cricket is popular in Asian continent compared to European countries.  I think field hockey is more or less popular in all countries.  But not as popular as football or cricket. Field hockey has number 4 here, I think it would have been better to have number 7 instead of 4 to 6

[Biodom]

Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...

Indeed, but he hasn't done a very good job at that.

His cabinet has been filled mostly with Fox News personalities and others with no experience in the fields he's assigned them to. Most were chosen for loyalty to him personally. Musk is the only one even close to competent and some people wonder about his long-term motives.

Just listen to his (higher level) ex-employees.
Him and Donald are the perfect narcissistic couple.
Americans gonna learn their lesson the hard way (again?).

We will not learn our lesson.  The structure is designed for robber barons for over 200 years. Once in a while the robber barons simply say fuck it and show us who is really in charge.

The musky trumpeter this time.

Hey, maybe we are in the equivalent of 20ies instead of 70ies, this time.
A big Depression in 2029-2032 while roaring twenties in 2025-2029?
It's possible.

[Volgastallion]

BlackRock Buys $50 Million Bitcoin as Fidelity, Grayscale and Invesco Sell.


X

Hahaha i really like this imfographic.

Its reminds me in a first and fast look a war in the space from movies or games, like Starwars, its like a "death star" is atacking another one. OR i just become crazy?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...

Indeed, but he hasn't done a very good job at that.

His cabinet has been filled mostly with Fox News personalities and others with no experience in the fields he's assigned them to. Most were chosen for loyalty to him personally. Musk is the only one even close to competent and some people wonder about his long-term motives.

Just listen to his (higher level) ex-employees.
Him and Donald are the perfect narcissistic couple.
Americans gonna learn their lesson the hard way (again?).

As Leonard Cohen puts it, "That's how it goes. Everybody knows."

That's the type of personality the electorate "chooses" to vote for. In the political arena, it's usually the bully, the arrogant and the narcissist that rises to the top. As for Trump's associates, Musk is probably the least problematic, and I must admit that I still admire him for his achievements (SpaceX, Tesla Motors), although I'm not as much of a fan as I used to be (but the engineer in me wants to like him for his technical achievements). And all that pre-election talk about creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve has been marred by all the post-election "crypto" nonsense about XRP and ETH. It goes to show that one should never trust politicians. At least team Trump are clearly anti-woke, which is a good thing.

[cAPSLOCK]

Proton... the people who made Protonmail (which is supposedly private?  I use it.  Conspiracy theories abound...) has just come out with a web based bitcoin wallet.

https://proton.me/wallet

At a glance it seems fairly good. Very simple, but seems to be built correctly for the tradeoffs chosen.

-Open source:  https://github.com/protonwallet/
-100% SELF CUSTODIAL.  They do nothing other than hold encrypted data (if you trust them...).  Your keys.
-E2E encrypted
-Only you have your keys*
-Standard 12 word seed that will work elsewhere
-Seamlessly lets you send bitcoin via email (have not tried this but sounds interesting)
-Uses (without any credit seemingly?) their own implementation of Blockstream's block explorer.**

I would like to see it allow for a BIP-39 passphrase to add a layer of security. but that said...

*Anything that runs in a browser window already has attack surface that otherwise would not be there.
**Block explorers are leaky and can be used in coin analysis and tracking.  In fact Proton could sell the queries made by their customers to coin analysis firms and thereby create links to BTC addresses/tx and IPs.  Of course this is true for ANY block explorer you use unless you run your own (and audit the code you use... ha)  Feel free to use mine if you can stand waiting on a TOR connection. I will not sell your data or even look at it.  TRUST ME. (lol)
http://emnjmgvibqwy5xncae3rekyitxxh2acc57sicmscfbnilsliqrfc3gad.onion/