Bitcoin Forum
January 26, 2026, 10:56:07 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 30.2 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

Pages: « 1 ... 34207 34208 34209 34210 34211 34212 34213 34214 34215 34216 34217 34218 34219 34220 34221 34222 34223 34224 34225 34226 34227 34228 34229 34230 34231 34232 34233 34234 34235 34236 34237 34238 34239 34240 34241 34242 34243 34244 34245 34246 34247 34248 34249 34250 34251 34252 34253 34254 34255 34256 [34257] 34258 34259 34260 34261 34262 34263 34264 34265 34266 34267 34268 34269 34270 34271 34272 34273 34274 34275 34276 34277 34278 34279 34280 34281 34282 34283 34284 34285 34286 34287 34288 34289 34290 34291 34292 34293 34294 34295 34296 34297 34298 34299 34300 34301 34302 34303 34304 34305 34306 34307 ... 35432 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918898 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 11:01:18 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Leahized
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 191


Bitz.io Best Bitcoin and Crypto Casino


View Profile WWW
February 14, 2025, 11:43:14 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Roses are red,
Crypto's a trip.
I fell for you hard

Don't you dare dip!
You're my moonshot,
My charts delight.

When others sleep,
You took flight.
So,Happy Valentine's

I am holding tight,
To you, my Btc Hodl
To the moon and out of sight.

#4 haiku in valentine
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 12:01:19 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
vapourminer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4928
Merit: 5647


what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 12:03:10 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness hisslyness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?
Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness @hisslyness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!


quoted for reference

good luck and thanks hisslyness
AlcoHoDL
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2996
Merit: 6460


Addicted to HoDLing!


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 12:35:20 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JimboToronto (1)


[... non-haikus ...]


Wikipedia - Haiku
gallianooo
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 760
Merit: 519


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 12:54:25 PM

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.
This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 01:01:15 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 02:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
AlcoHoDL
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2996
Merit: 6460


Addicted to HoDLing!


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 02:01:32 PM
Last edit: February 14, 2025, 02:14:24 PM by AlcoHoDL

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.
This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...

Yes, that's how I expect it:

Cycle high @ Q4 2025
Cycle low @ Q4 2026
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4746
Merit: 11307


'The right to privacy matters'


View Profile WWW
February 14, 2025, 02:45:07 PM

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.
This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...

Yes, that's how I expect it:

Cycle high @ Q4 2025
Cycle low @ Q4 2026

I think the cycle breaks this year.

At least the 4 year concept.

We did new ath before the 1/2 ing
We cracked 100k way early last dec

And we may have witnessed the ath on January 20 a few hours before the musky trumpeter was signed in
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 03:01:18 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4270
Merit: 7114


The OTHER Wordy Man


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 03:40:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)



I am not deeply enough educated to challenge anything that you are saying... except to witness that you are saying that you love that other girl more than this girl.  You did not tell me whether you listened to the Super Testnet interview that I had provided or to criticize any of his claims.



So that is an overly simplistic representation of my position.

I do not really pit one girl against the other.  Too black and white.  And instead of two girls what I see is two tools, that though they work very similarly have a divergence at such a fundamental level that they are not the same at all.

Monero is arguably NOT a good store of value because of the issue of auditability.  You will hear proponents argue convoluted pretzel logic about how it IS auditable, but the reality is if there WERE an inflation exploit it would be VERY hard to know this.

I am struggling to think of a better analogy than two girls.  It would be better to think of Bitcoin as a tank, and Monero as a 150cc scooter.  Both means of transportation but built for very different purposes.  I would not go to war on my scooter, nor would I drive my tank to the grocery store.  But this analogy is quite flawed as well.

AND in the end I believe Bitcoin will (actually MUST) be traded on layers above the base chain, and eventually a layer will be created that inherits ALL of Monero's privacy advantages at least, and retains enough sovereignty to be safe to store a little value on that layer.  Liquid and Fedimints are inching in the right direction.

Until then though... if you really want the best privacy guarantees...  well you know the rest... poor dead horse.

I have not listened to that interview yet, but will if I find time.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 04:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
cxtreenal
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 588
Merit: 230



View Profile
February 14, 2025, 04:14:24 PM
Merited by icebar (4), JayJuanGee (1)

Happy Valentines day ! for Bitcoin !



https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1890427685601447969
serveria.com
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2744
Merit: 1370


Privacy Servers. Since 2009.


View Profile WWW
February 14, 2025, 04:33:42 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I think the cycle breaks this year.

At least the 4 year concept.

We did new ath before the 1/2 ing
We cracked 100k way early last dec

And we may have witnessed the ath on January 20 a few hours before the musky trumpeter was signed in

It seems to me your political views are forcing you to use some questionable logic. I personally fail to see any facts or hints that ATH has already been reached this cycle (and it was $100k). I also don't think we reached 100k early. We were meant to reach 100k some time late in the previous cycle (2021?). It's the last cycle which was abnormal, not this one.  

Regarding Trump, I can guarantee that we WILL see a new ATH during Trump's current term.

All in all, I can smell some bitterness and potentially dangerous "mindrusting" possibilities for Phil here. Hang on to your coins, dude!  Cool
cxtreenal
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 588
Merit: 230



View Profile
February 14, 2025, 04:39:55 PM

Citibank, one of the largest banks in the United States and is ranked third among US banks in terms of assets.
Considering launching Bitcoin and crypto services.


https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1890434908528521326
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 2413


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 05:01:15 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
WatChe
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1526
Merit: 912



View Profile WWW
February 14, 2025, 05:37:53 PM

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!

quoted for reference

good luck and thanks hisslyness

You can also volunteer yourself as a referee, that will over look the process and give decisions in case there is a dispute.
El duderino_
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 3136
Merit: 15199


“They have no clue”


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 05:47:58 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1), philipma1957 (1), xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1), serveria.com (1)

Pump my love please pump
That would be appropriate
On Valentine’s Day
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 4340
Merit: 13904


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


View Profile
February 14, 2025, 05:50:13 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

[...]There are still various tactics that can cause plausible deniability in regards to coins, and sure depending on who any of us might be wanting to be private from....   There is a lot of power to be able to directly transact with folks, and if we are drawing from wallets that might ONLY have as much as the transaction or maybe reasonable amounts higher than the transaction, then maybe no one would be able to figure out exactly how many hops back they might have to go to figure out if we might have larger stashes, and yeah we  could end up making mistakes if someone is going back and looking at from where those coins had come.  But yeah, if we get a lot more people transacting with bitcoin then that could also help to have the transactions to be more common... but we still might not want to spend from a  2 BTC wallet in order to buy $100 worth of something, but instead use our wallet that has 0.00634582 BTC.. and yeah maybe in some places we might want to use even a smaller wallet...  but yeah, maybe $100 or less might be better done on lightning network to the extent anyone is set up with that ability..and practicing, too.[...]
What I do is keep a very small amount of BTC (currently, around 0.6 BTC) in an exchange, so whenever I need to spend/send some small amount (say, $100), I just do it directly on the exchange (either convert to fiat and withdraw to my bank, or withdraw the 0.001 BTC to my phone's hot wallet, and from there to the intended recipient). Any trace done on such transaction would point to my hot wallet and then to the exchange's hot wallet (used for daily customers' withdrawals), and not linking in any way to my cold wallet. The exchange is effectively mixing my 0.6 BTC and isolating the two wallets, so the recipient wouldn't be able to link to one via the other. Not talking about coffee purchases. I guess Lightning could be used for these, but, believe it or not, I haven't used it yet for anything. I don't even know how it's done in practice (Lightning wallet app?), but I'd like to get into it. The thing is, we (still) live in a fiat world, so buying coffee with fiat makes more sense, as things currently stand at least.

I like to look for opportunities to spend bitcoin in order to try to support the infrastructure when possible, but yeah, it is not always easy to find such possibilities.  For lightning network, I have ONLY used BlueWallet (no longer available as their custodial), Phoenix (no  longer available in USA),  Breez (they force closed my channel in  late 2023 and  I have not opened a new one) and Cash App (custodial).  I had downloaded Agua and I am not opposed to trying out some others, even though there are ONLY so many hours in the day...but nice to have some option available if I were to walk into a coffee shop that accepts lightning network payments, I would probably buy some coffee or something, even if I wasn't thirsty.

An obvious question could arise from the above: what's the point of converting to $100 of fiat from the 0.6 BTC stored in the exchange, instead of simply using $100 from my fiat bank account?

Many times I don't like transacting small amounts from exchanges,  since I hate paying them so many fees and I don't like not having coin control even though it seems that it could serve your obscurity purpose, but it seems to be overly guarding yourself..  but yeah, each of us has to figure out how much is enough or not.  I don't mind holding some larger amounts on my phone like I would in my physical wallet, and surely if I was going to buy some kind of more expensive item in bitcoin, then yeah, I would pre-charge higher amounts for that purpose.  I did have a real world purchase of something that was close to $10k .. and I used a wallet that I had gone up a lot in value, so it was like $2,200 in  that wallet, and then by the time I made the large purchase, the BTC price had gone up so much that it was like $15k at the time that I made the transaction... .so that person probably could have seen that I got around $5k back in change.. usually i keep much smaller amounts, on any of my hot or semi-hot wallets.

Well, not all things we do make logical sense, and sometimes we may need to make use of our coins for some illogical, psychological reason. For example (I've probably mentioned this before), the current fiat value of my above mentioned 0.6 BTC exceeds my total fiat investment value used to buy my entire BTC stash over the years. My plan is to use that 0.6 BTC to slowly withdraw my entire fiat investment amount.

The numbers can get crazy, and even figuring out how to calculate them.  I recall several times wondering if I should withdraw my initial investment or not, yet it seems that over the years, I had ended up withdrawing my initial investment, even though I did not really do it for that purpose.. but there were a couple of times that I was dealing with some business type arrangements, and I just decided  to either buy out the situation or to provide loans to others, so then those were largely taken from my bitcoin, and so I had more than cashout my original investment.  I also had some coins lost due to my own mistakes that could have been considered cashing out my initial investment too.  Funny that all of these things can be done and how the fiat value of the cornz has become.   Some folks we had been recommending to get a few coins, and now those guys are not even able to afford 0.21 BTC... even  though surely some of the folks can still buy bitcoin on a regular basis and still maybe could reach decent amounts of BTC (satoshis), but they just have to get started rather than continuing to watch and wait.. and it can take a bit of time, just to have one or two or three places to cash in and out through exchanges, and I have a few exchanges that I can no longer use.....  but there are options available... and people in some locations have more options than in other locations, even though it is becoming possible that bitcoin is being exchanged at more places around the worlds than any other currency... even the dollar.. even though the dollar amounts make bitcoins amounts look like amounts for ants.

The funny thing is that, during the Q4 2024 rise to $100k, I was seeing the value of my 0.6 BTC getting higher while I was actually withdrawing from it... Something like a never-ending money generator! Is this what our Bitcoin stash has become?

That seems to be part of the reason that I continue to suggest to people that once they get to a stage of having enough or more than enough BTC, then they likely will be able to withdraw from their BTC stash in amounts that are much greater than  they had expected and  still  their BTC will likely be growing in value faster than they are able to spend from it.  Of course, many of  us might still spend from our fiat first, and then bitcoin later, and if I do make large transactions with BTC, I still might end up doing spend and replace (especially if I am spending from my BTC in  ways that go beyond my normal budget, then I might still end up putting cash back into my bitcoin system to keep things reasonably balanced).   

A never-ending money generator? Was Saylor's comment to Laura really true? Are we really getting richer while we sleep? I still find it too good to be true (but it really seems to be!).

Pinch yourself.  There are way too many people still talking about BTC prices going down, and sure it might happen... but relying on BTC prices to go down seems problematic.. and surely when BTC prices get above $100k but they don't come back below $100k, then some of us HODLers might still end up suffering while we might end up spending some of our coins during dippening periods, but those dippening periods will be in the 6 digits.. which is not really even much different from our today's BTC prices that are bouncing between $96k-ish and $98k-ish.  It is not like suffering. .but surely times  that many of us continue to pinch ourselves and we might even consider that there is not much difference between shaving off some cornz.. let's say 0.004 BTC at $100k or maybe if the BTC price gets to $150k, and maybe there has been some inflation, but we then ONLY have to shave 0.003 BTC for some similar thing.  What I am saying is that we might not even be bothered very much if we might have to spend 0.004 BTC or 0.003 BTC .. sure it makes a difference but not enough of a difference for us to really get worked up about.

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  
After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.
@hissleness role will be to act like a third umpire in Cricket (or VAR in football). Third umpire is available to resolve disputes which on field umpires can't resolve. Third umpire has better visibility of the disputes and can give best decisions which are also final.

Sounds good.

Roses are red,
Crypto's a trip.
I fell for you hard

Don't you dare dip!
You're my moonshot,
My charts delight.

When others sleep,
You took flight.
So,Happy Valentine's

I am holding tight,
To you, my Btc Hodl
To the moon and out of sight.
#4 haiku in valentine

Your poem is nice, but surely such poem is not a haiku, in terms of form... 5-7-5.. You are all over the place in terms of your syllable count.

I think the cycle breaks this year.
At least the 4 year concept.

We did new ath before the 1/2 ing
We cracked 100k way early last dec

And we may have witnessed the ath on January 20 a few hours before the musky trumpeter was signed in

Are you in the mood to bet in regards to your repetition of dumb.. ?  Not complete dumb, but pretty close to it.  You sound like someone just new to bitcoin.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!
quoted for reference
good luck and thanks hisslyness
You can also volunteer yourself as a referee, that will over look the process and give decisions in case there is a dispute.

It seems that we have to have an odd number.. so.. vapourminer could be a back up to hisslyness... but only if hisslyness were not available or able to appear... I would hate there to be a dispute between us, but then we end up with a dispute between the referees..  .. that is  why there would need to be an odd number.. and one is an odd number....even though a back up could  come in handy...  even though it could take until January 1-ish, 2027 to resolve.
Pages: « 1 ... 34207 34208 34209 34210 34211 34212 34213 34214 34215 34216 34217 34218 34219 34220 34221 34222 34223 34224 34225 34226 34227 34228 34229 34230 34231 34232 34233 34234 34235 34236 34237 34238 34239 34240 34241 34242 34243 34244 34245 34246 34247 34248 34249 34250 34251 34252 34253 34254 34255 34256 [34257] 34258 34259 34260 34261 34262 34263 34264 34265 34266 34267 34268 34269 34270 34271 34272 34273 34274 34275 34276 34277 34278 34279 34280 34281 34282 34283 34284 34285 34286 34287 34288 34289 34290 34291 34292 34293 34294 34295 34296 34297 34298 34299 34300 34301 34302 34303 34304 34305 34306 34307 ... 35432 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!