I think the cycle breaks this year.
At least the 4 year concept.
We did new ath before the 1/2 ing
We cracked 100k way early last dec
And we may have witnessed the ath on January 20 a few hours before the musky trumpeter was signed in
It’s good to be prepared for all scenarios but I don’t agree with you here. We’ll see what happens but whilst the block reward is still
whole bitcoins I think we continue to run on four year cycles.
I don't know why you are gravitating on more than 1 BTC being significant. 0.78125 BTC starting in 2032 seems like a pretty significant amount to me. It will probably be more than today's dollar values, including accounting for the debasement of the dollar, and even 0.390625 BTC and 0.1953125 BTC seems significant too, starting in 2036 and 2040 respectively. Those are going to be amounts of BTC that are going to be out of touch for normies to accumulate... absent a lot of aggressive ongoing, persistent and consistent accumulation practices.
I feel that whilst there’s still such a supply shock when mining block rewards are higher than most newbies even hold we will run on four year cycles.
I don’t have any scientific or mathematical formula to back this theory up.
Bitcoin is obviously maturing as an asset, we are seeing diminishing returns (I will need to confirm that depending on what this cycle high is. Is it more then 3.5x like the 2017 high of 20k to 2021 high of 69k. What will we land at this cycle?).
Perhaps the predictable four year cycle stops playing out in 2040 when the block reward is 0.19531250
BTC or in 2044 when the block reward is 0.09765625.
Yep.. perhaps the 4-year cycle will start to not be exact, but I agree with your that we still likely have to presume it to be continuing, until it doesn't
Time will reveal all, I guess.
Whilst we’re discussing numbers, something that crossed my mind recently was, perhaps newbies should aim to HODL the amount of Bitcoin that correlates with the block reward (this will reduce as time passes obviously). Is there an argument that could be JJG’s fuck you money status one day?
I have not updated
my fuck you status chart recently, but below is a supplement to a post that I did 3 weeks ago. You can see that my current presumptions of 10% withdrawal rate fuck you status, the amounts to get into entry level fuck you status go below 1 BTC in 2038, so surely the amount of BTC you need continues to go down, and at this point, I see no reason to change the various assumptions behind the future projections.
Date SpotPrice 200 WMA %gain/time Spotvs200 gain/time Coins/10%FU Status Coins/4%FU Status Filty-Rich
11/29/24 $95,662 $41,513 27.69% 130.44% $6,325 19.27107171 48.17767928 2,408.8840
5/31/25 $53,236 28.24% 102.00% $11,723 15.02741817 37.56854542 1,878.4273
11/30/25 $68,570 28.80% 102.00% $15,334 11.66687027 29.16717568 1,458.3588
5/31/26 $76,113 11.00% $7,543 10.51069394 26.27673485 1,313.8367
11/30/26 $84,067 10.45% 95.00% $7,954 9.51624621 23.79061553 1,189.5308
5/31/27 $92,412 9.93% 95.00% $8,346 8.65683856 21.64209640 1,082.1048
11/30/27 $101,128 9.43% 95.00% $8,716 7.91076448 19.77691119 988.8456
5/31/28 $116,297 15.00% $15,169 6.87892563 17.19731408 859.8657
By the way, my number of to be necessary for BTC for the two entry-level fuck you statuses is presuming a bitcoin withdrawal rate of 10% at $800k for the first one (which is a $6,666 per month income) .. then $2 million and a traditional 4% withdrawal rate with the same $6,666 monthly income.. and then filthy rich would be a $100 million net worth.. of course each of these categories/statuses is pegged to the 200-WMA value and not to the spot price, where-ever that might be at the various snapshot times in the future.. I feel way more comfortable attempting to project 200-WMA rather than BTC spot price, even though there is a bit of an assumption regarding the rate that the 200-WMA moves up is based on BTC's spot price dragging it up at whatever rate I am presuming to be within reason for that time period.
Date SpotPrice 200 WMA %gain/time Spotvs200 gain/time Coins/10%FU Status Coins/4%FU Status Filty-Rich5/31/35 $478,906 6.32% 95.00% $28,457 1.67047403 4.17618506 208.80925
11/30/35 $507,648 6.00% 95.00% $28,742 1.57589473 3.93973683 196.98684
5/30/36 $558,413 10.00% $50,765 1.43263158 3.58157894 179.07895
11/29/36 $615,371 10.20% 102.00% $56,958 1.30002865 3.25007163 162.50358
5/30/37 $679,394 10.40% 102.00% $64,023 1.17751952 2.94379880 147.18994
11/29/37 $751,492 10.61% 102.00% $72,098 1.06454876 2.66137189 133.06859
5/31/38 $796,582 6.00% $45,090 1.00429128 2.51072820 125.53641
11/29/38 $841,987 5.70% 95.00% $45,405 0.95013366 2.37533415 118.76671
5/31/39 $887,580 5.42% 95.00% $45,594 0.90132681 2.25331703 112.66585
11/29/39 $933,240 5.14% 95.00% $45,659 0.85722882 2.14307205 107.15360
5/30/40 $1,007,899 8.00% $74,659 0.79373039 1.98432597 99.21630
11/29/40 $1,090,143 8.16% 102.00% $82,245 0.73384836 1.83462091 91.73105
5/30/41 $1,180,878 8.32% 102.00% $90,735 0.67746186 1.69365464 84.68273
11/29/41 $1,281,131 8.49% 102.00% $100,253 0.62444830 1.56112074 78.05604
5/30/42 $1,345,187 5.00% $64,057 0.59471266 1.48678166 74.33908
11/29/42 $1,409,084 4.75% 95.00% $63,896 0.56774478 1.41936196 70.96810
5/31/43 $1,472,669 4.51% 95.00% $63,585 0.54323146 1.35807866 67.90393312
Is that date correct? First quarter of2024? Something sounds incorrect about the timing of the post or the timing of the purchase, and being announced a year later? Maybe?
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