Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Leahized]

#21 Rules of ₿itcoin

1. Those who understand buy Bitcoin.
2. Those who don’t, criticize Bitcoin.
3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.
4. You will never be done learning about Bitcoin.
5. Bitcoin is powered by chaos.
6. Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win.
7. Bitcoin is the one thing in the universe that you can truly own.
8. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
9. Only buy Bitcoin with the money you can’t afford to lose.
10. Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in Bitcoin.
11. Bitcoin insight is restricted to those with a need to know.
12. All your models will be destroyed.
13. The cure to economic ill is the orange pill.
14. Be for Bitcoin, not against Fiat.
15. Bitcoin is for everyone.
16. Learn to think in Bitcoin.
17. You don’t change Bitcoin, it changes you.
18. Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.
19. Respect Bitcoin, or it will make a clown out of you.
20. You do not sell your Bitcoin.
21. Spread Bitcoin with love.
X

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Happy Presidents' Day to all my American WO buddies!

 and depending on where you live in Canada,

 Happy Family (famille)/ Louis Riel/ Nova Scotia Heritage/ Islander/ unnamed civic holi-/  Day (jour de la) to all my Canadian WO pals!
 (why do I suddenly feel we are ripe for being taken over by a hostile country)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

FTX bankruptcy repayments start on 18th February (tomorrow).

Apparently the first creditors to receive repayments will be individuals with under $50,000 in assets. They will receive full refunds (fiat equivalent of what they had AT THE TIME plus 9% interest). No repayments will be in cryptocurrency so there won’t be a mass dumping threat like with Gox repayments.

Hopefully this will bring an injection of new liquidity to Bitcoin. We need something because this current range is total AIDS, we don’t seem to be able to reclaim $100,000.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hypebrother]

FTX bankruptcy repayments start on 18th February (tomorrow).

Apparently the first creditors to receive repayments will be individuals with under $50,000 in assets. They will receive full refunds (fiat equivalent of what they had AT THE TIME plus 9% interest). No repayments will be in cryptocurrency so there won’t be a mass dumping threat like with Gox repayments.

Hopefully this will bring an injection of new liquidity to Bitcoin. We need something because this current range is total AIDS, we don’t seem to be able to reclaim $100,000.

[xhomerx10]

#21 Rules of ₿itcoin

1. Those who understand buy Bitcoin.
2. Those who don’t, criticize Bitcoin.
3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.
4. You will never be done learning about Bitcoin.
5. Bitcoin is powered by chaos.
6. Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win.
7. Bitcoin is the one thing in the universe that you can truly own.
8. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
9. Only buy Bitcoin with the money you can’t afford to lose.
10. Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in Bitcoin.
11. Bitcoin insight is restricted to those with a need to know.
12. All your models will be destroyed.
13. The cure to economic ill is the orange pill.
14. Be for Bitcoin, not against Fiat.
15. Bitcoin is for everyone.
16. Learn to think in Bitcoin.
17. You don’t change Bitcoin, it changes you.
18. Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.
19. Respect Bitcoin, or it will make a clown out of you.
20. You do not sell your Bitcoin.
21. Spread Bitcoin with love.
X

 I appreciate Michael Saylor's pro-Bitcoin stance and if it actually had ambassadors, he'd be on my short list of candidates.   I do however take exception with this statement:

3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.

This might be "projection" on his part.  I don't profess to speak for everyone and certainly most people I talked to about it from the beginning were skeptical or just had no interest but personally, I was never against Bitcoin.  My understanding of Bitcoin changed over time and maybe I was only curious about it at first but I was never "against" Bitcoin.  I suppose anyone can have a list of "rules" though and he didn't call it Saylor's Laws of Bitcoin so maybe it was just a fun thing to pass some time for him and I'm overthinking this one.

[vapourminer]

3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.

This might be "projection" on his part.  I don't profess to speak for everyone and certainly most people I talked to about it from the beginning were skeptical or just had no interest but personally, I was never against Bitcoin.  My understanding of Bitcoin changed over time and maybe I was only curious about it at first but I was never "against" Bitcoin. 

when i 1st heard of bitcoin in 2011 it was from a distributed computing point of view, as i had been in folding@home and such for years already. so it was pure curiosity at that point. well that and the possibility of making beer money on the side by selling these weird "bitcoin" thingies somewhere sounded cool.

as i (slowly!) learned more, and watched bitcoin survive hit after hit and basically shrug it off made me a believer in its long term viability.

[bitebits]

Well observed Homer and have to agree with you there.

I do like the a bit unusual for Saylor number 10 though. You have to experience stepping out of the matrix yourself but once you can and do: endless rabbit holes to fall into (and being considered awkward actually having an own informed opinion about topics almost nobody IRL seems to care about lol).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

https://x.com/100trillionusd/status/1890721205059031311?s=46  

I stopped respecting that loser when S2F died a miserable death 4 years ago. The fact he still argues his models are valid is hilarious.
This is another string to his loser bow. Don’t have heroes in Bitcoin, guys. They will more often than not, disappoint you.

Now, when are we going to break out of this crab market, damn it.

maybe oct or nov

A gentlemen's bet would not be a bad thing.  We might be able to figure out something that is in the ballpark of 50/50, even though you are sounding pretty confident in your assertion that might justify different odds to show how confident you are in your proposition.  

To figure out odds, we might need to clarify moar better what you are predicting.  

I could see that you might be saying that bitcoin prices will not reach ATH again prior to October 1, 2025..but you are even throwing November into the mix, which causes me to ponder that you have a decent amount of confidence in your assertion that "it could take a while to get back into the $100ks.  

You are pronouncing with a lot of confidence, this time.. .. What else is new?    

Since you keep avoiding me, I doubt that you are even confident enough to place a wee-widdow friendly gentlemen's bet, which shows an actual lack (or absence) of confidence..   - mere words.

Edited above - perhaps slightly changing some substance

#21 Rules of ₿itcoin

1. Those who understand buy Bitcoin.
2. Those who don’t, criticize Bitcoin.
3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.
4. You will never be done learning about Bitcoin.
5. Bitcoin is powered by chaos.
6. Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win.
7. Bitcoin is the one thing in the universe that you can truly own.
8. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
9. Only buy Bitcoin with the money you can’t afford to lose.
10. Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in Bitcoin.
11. Bitcoin insight is restricted to those with a need to know.
12. All your models will be destroyed.
13. The cure to economic ill is the orange pill.
14. Be for Bitcoin, not against Fiat.
15. Bitcoin is for everyone.
16. Learn to think in Bitcoin.
17. You don’t change Bitcoin, it changes you.
18. Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.
19. Respect Bitcoin, or it will make a clown out of you.
20. You do not sell your Bitcoin.
21. Spread Bitcoin with love.
X

I appreciate Michael Saylor's pro-Bitcoin stance and if it actually had ambassadors, he'd be on my short list of candidates.   I do however take exception with this statement:

3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.

This might be "projection" on his part.  I don't profess to speak for everyone and certainly most people I talked to about it from the beginning were skeptical or just had no interest but personally, I was never against Bitcoin.  My understanding of Bitcoin changed over time and maybe I was only curious about it at first but I was never "against" Bitcoin.  I suppose anyone can have a list of "rules" though and he didn't call it Saylor's Laws of Bitcoin so maybe it was just a fun thing to pass some time for him and I'm overthinking this one.

I did appreciate reading through them, and I did notice some repeating themes in there, but there can be some variations on a theme too..  

Within the pack of rules, I was looking for: "bitcoin goes up forever, Laura."

I am thinking that I was never "against" bitcoin either, but surely, the ways that we think about bitcoin and talk about bitcoin does likely change through the years, and perhaps those of us who are mostly erroring in the side of accumulating and/or HODLing, we likely are gaining conviction by our continuing to be involved in bitcoin, yet we still might enter into stages of confusion regarding how to treat our  bitcoin, even wanting to just sell 25% of our stash, just to get some relief from the volatility... so the journey from a normies perspective might well differ from someone who might barely have any other assets, compared to if someone has various other assets, such as three yachts... yet even though I own no large luxury items like yachts, I can still imagine that there still can be some stress that comes from the volatility that can contribute to our wondering if we are allocating appropriately, even with Saylor.. so many bold and public statements that might cause some concerns about "being wrong" and then being accused of misleading people based on our statements that ended up "being wrong."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

[fillippone]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

I must admit he's been highly prudent in his declaration so far.
I would have expected to see him everywhere upon his release.

[philipma1957]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

well he was rail roaded by the feds.  he got just about 2x the right time for being a drug dealer to many people. (five would have been right)

But the federal lawman that framed he got off far too easy.  and the judge that sentenced was pretty suspect.

Look trump may do some good kicking out the illegals may get done.

So far he has done quite a bit of trumpeting.

and firing of people.  I believe he has fired more people than he has kicked out immigrants but I am having trouble getting numbers to back up

total firings
total deportations.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

I must admit he's been highly prudent in his declaration so far.
I would have expected to see him everywhere upon his release.

Give him some time.. 11 years in jail took it's toll I guess.

[d_eddie]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

If he'd freed my ass
Ten long years of doom and gloom
I would like him too




#haiku

[OgNasty]

Hopefully we're seeing the worst of it as the FTX money is rumored to start going out this week.  It would be nice if a lot of those funds flowed into Bitcoin.  It seemed to me that FTX was a Solana focused exchange (or maybe it just appeared that way because they stole everyone's money and dumped it into SOL) so I would expect we'd see the biggest rise there, but who knows.  Maybe some of those folks learned their lesson and will be self-custodying their Bitcoin from here on out.  Should be a more excited week than normal.  I'll be watching and hoping to learn something.

[Biodom]

I am a bit bemused by the current 'crab market' despite the multitude of bullish announcements.

Consider these four points:

1. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is $1.7 tril and recently bought $436 mil btc (in a form of ETF). $436 mil is about 0.026%. Now, Larry Fink have said that someone (my read it was a sov wealth fund) had discussed with him whether the "proper" allocation should be 2% or 5%.

Do the math...Abu Dhabi would have to buy 80X (additional 33.1 bil) to get to 2% and 192X ($83.4bil) to get to 5%.
The current total in IBIT is 59bil.

2. Recent from M.Saylor: https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/michael-saylor-predicts-5-million-btc-price

Apart from the price, he predicts that relatively soon you would be able to get a loan at SOFR+0.5% for your bitcoin, so there would be NO need to sell. Sofr is currently around 4.3-4.35%.

3. Bill Miller Jr: https://youtu.be/O828QTvraLE?t=95

4. Who is selling? https://youtu.be/4PT5wKJEqHs?t=22

My explanation (based in part on a vid above) for the crab market is that OGs got PTSD from the 2021-2022 "fiasco" (bull market under-performance) and they decided to sell early this time and the price around 100K seems OK to them since it is still about 40-50% higher than in 2021.

From the data above to suggest that "old" holders are selling, but new "whales" (like Abu Dhabi, presumably) are buying is not unreasonable.

Make a call...I know what mine is...hodling, of course