so thinking caps coming up.
it is so good to know I am 68 and likely will get to bail on the madness coming in 20 years or so.
Sounds like you're likely going to see all that madness....
88 not bad for thinking you can still remember some seed phrase then.
Whether we are 88 or some other age, hopefully we are not relying on our memory for the seed words or the seed phrase, even though surely there may be several things that we need to remember, including that we even have bitcoin and/or the places that we might have our backups and/or our different coins and how to perform some of the tasks. Some of that will change in the coming years (20 years? can you imagine?), and surely some of us will make trade off kinds of choices in regards to how we might manage our coins. I am not sure if I have greater odds than Phil to still be kicking in 20 years, but each of us can ONLY do our best, and perhaps hope that we have good health practices and/or genetics.
Let's say I have an assistant to help me with some of my matters, and surely the assistant might not be able to resist shaving off some coins, which surely does become a problem when dealing with persons in positions of trust... so there sometimes can be questions regarding how much to share... including figuring out what safeguards are enough, and what safeguards might have had become too complicated, so we might have to move over to a more simple solution... Is that part of the explanation why PlanB claimed to have had moved his BTC value from personal custody and into the Blackrock ETF?
[...]Where is that diversification discussion from Saylor? Yeah, you might not be a fan of Saylor, but so what? Saylor makes some good points about diversification.
I found this one, but there was another earlier one (perhaps in 2021? - AlcoHoDL had posted it in this very thread), in which Saylor spoke about the waste of time to diversify into shitcoins, even though Saylor has been more ambiguous in recent times.. .but the point still stands that most if not all value flows into the leader of the sector (which is bitcoin) and all others will either trend to zero or largely just be correlated with bitcoin with additional risk and without any real and/or meaningful upside.
[...]
I do remember posting this, but I can't find the actual post, and the forum's search engine is pretty bad. Still, I can say for sure that my experience with shitcoins has been negative. I regret every single shitcoin purchase I've even made.
Quick calculation:
Several years ago I bought 50 LTC (for... diversification), back when LTC was selling for around $40. At that time, BTC was selling for around $3000.
Now, my 50 LTC = $6500
Had I bought BTC instead, I would now have an extra 0.67 BTC = $65,800.
I lost $59,300.
Surely the way that any of us discuss matters can evolve over time, and I recall that earlier clip from Saylor (that you had linked) regarding why not to fuck around with shitcoins was a much better than his recent discussion about why not to diversify across industries, even though he was saying similar things.
I am not too worried about various shitcoins that I have, and you are likely correct that there has been some opportunity costs in holding some of them.
Historically, there had been some fluctuations in some of my shitcoins, and yeah there might have had been times that the totality of them might have had gotten close to 2% in my overall holdings, yet that might have had been around the time that bcash and bgold were holding their value better, and yeah, my bcash did not last long in my holdings. .maybe a couple of months for my trying to figure out how to separate them, and then another period that a couple of exchanges had made them recognizable in my account, such as Coinbase and my BTC-e account, and a couple of others later down the road. I remember when Coinbase was playing its shenanigans to try to make bcash appear like it had value and then freezing their exchange, and I was trying to get rid of them as fast as I could (at least in my timeline of reasonable) with staggered ladders.. I am not really expecting my shitcoins to perform relative to bitcoin.
Probably the ONLY shitcoin I regret is my BGold, since there was a time that it was getting close to 0.05 of a bitcoin, and perhaps I was being too greedy because I was going to sell it around that 5% or so, but for some reason it did not meet my price and so I just said fuck it.. and just moved it into a private wallet. Now it is like 0.00004 BTC.. so it has really plummeted...so it is pretty close to zero, and it has gotten delisted from several places too.. and yeah, maybe at some point there would be no place for me to sell it, even if I were to want to.
[edited out]
The only time I ever had a positive experience with a shitcoin was Ravencoin. I made an absolute killing on the pumps they did when that came out. Basically every other time I've accepted and held shitcoins I've lost money. I was also cursed by having a good NFT run in the beginning, which led me into wasting a ton of time working on and supporting projects like the Sandbox Metaverse, which I probably lost $20,000 on. I will say that POL NFTs and Solana memecoins are the most fun I've had in this space since probably 2015. So while they certainly don't make good investments, they do provide entertainment. I can't say I have any regrets. Maybe some of the NFTs I got stuck with.
I thought that you said that you made profits on the Trump coin? I think that sometimes we can make profits and not remember. I made some profits on some shitcoins, but they were pretty limited plays... ..I am kind of hesitant to go into too many details because it might sound like I am pumping shitcoins...and I think that I was experimenting. Within my first month or so of getting into bitcoin, I bought all of the shitcoins on BTC-e.. there were 7 of them. I think I held them for several years.. Kind of a waste of time on those and I did not really pay too much attention to them except just continue to monitor how each one of them kept going down... Maybe a little embarrassing to admit, even though I proclaim that I was not really studying into any of them.. just bought each one of them that was available on BTCe at the time in a kind of blind way.
Hahahahahaha
A win-win for you, ONLY if you end up winning, and if I were to lose the bet, then the amount that I would be paying you has four zeros after the decimal (not 3 zeros).. which is: 0.00003 BTC (3,000 satoshis). Otherwise, if you lose the bet, then you have to pay me 0.0003 BTC (30k satoshis) (which has 3 zeros and not 4, and I have to receive that amount, so you are responsible for fees, if you end up losing and end up having to send to me).
Sure directionally, your satoshis cost less if you lose the bet as compared to if you win the bet, then satoshis that I pay you are worth more if I lose the bet, but they still are only 1/10th the amount of satoshis that you would end up paying if you were to lose the bet. I suppose one of the calculations of placing bets in satoshis as compared with placing bets in dollars when each of us realize that it continues to be likely that with the passage of time the value of satoshis are going to continue to go up in dollar terms.
In any event, I am expecting that the odds for you to win the bet are greater than for me to win the bet, such as perhaps you have 60% or 70% odds of winning the bet, yet I entered into the bet with you, since I really doubt that your odds of winning the bet are anything close to 90%, which makes the bet economical for me to enter it, even if my odds of winning the bet may well be only 30% to 40%.
And yeah, maybe I should have forced you into giving me greater odds, but that is O.k. I am feeling charitable to some extent to merely get you to agree to the bet terms, and the other portion, if the BTC price were to go up to $333,333, then at that point my paying you 0.00003 BTC (3,000 satoshis) would amount to a dollar value of right around $10. I should be able to afford, it, even though sure in dollar terms if you lose the bet then your 0.0003 BTC (30k satoshis) would ONLY be worth $27, so in dollar terms we might imagine scenarios in which the odds are ONLY 10/27.... so a little less than 1/3...
What you says means that you think you are in win-win situation while I am assuming same for myself. Let's see who wins this claim. To me it's more about appreciation to your claim rather then money in this case.
Failure is not but aiming low is a crime. I am glad that you are so excited about the bet, and you believe that you win either way.
I never said that it was a win-win for me. I was merely questioning how you would consider your bet to be a win if you were to end up losing it, and then you have to make sure I receive 30,000 satoshis (after I give you an address, of course).
I do agree with your assessment that if we frame the bet in terms of dollars, then there are ways that we can reframe our having had agreed to 10-1 odds towards being 2.7-ish to1 odds, which odds are not as favorable to me, if we think about it in that kind of a way... .. that's fine.. even though we could end up in a situation 1.5 years down the road that I owe you 3,000 satoshis and there could be circumstances in which those satoshis might be equivalent to $9.99.. while you might be ONLY risking $27 if you were to lose the bet... but still having to pay me 30,000 satoshis.
Maybe if you consider your bet to be such a great deal and such a potential money maker, you might want to seek some other guys who might want to enter such bet on similar terms or we could increase the amounts, since it is still relatively early in the term of the bet.
I never bet/gamble because of different reasons. This is first time I am betting with someone and it's mainly because you challenged and I have no other option but to respond.
You expressed such certainty to be claiming that the BTC price is
never going to go below $90k again. It is like you are asking for punishment when you make those kinds of absolutist assertions. I did not really want to enter into the bet either, but you made it irresistible since you are so confident.
Sure, you might win the bet, but there may well be ways to NOT make such absolutist claims. Philip makes such absolutist claims too, but he does not agree to follow through with a bet, so at least you are willing to stand behind your claim, yet at the same time, it does not seem necessary to make such strong claims. But, hey whatever, you can do what you like, yet if you continue making absolute proclamations then it may end up in more bets, whether from me or some other member. The odds are in your favor... sure.
JJG lets make a formal post as suggested by hisslyness(
third adjudicator) and also we have
verificationfrom vapourminer. Just create a post here that we can refer to in case anyone wins.
We already have a formal post, and we already agreed to the terms. You said you agreed. I quoted it and one or two other members quoted it.. I think at least vapourminer and hisslyness had quoted it. We are already solidly in the bet and the formal terms have been outlined already. There is no need to outline the formal terms again, unless we are wanting to renegotiate any of the terms, which I don't see any need to do so. You are free to reiterate the terms if you like, and I can agree or not agree if you have reiterated such terms correctly... yet even if you don't attempt to reiterate our bet, we already have a "formal" iteration of our bet terms. We ONLY have one outstanding bet at this point.
looks like that bet between JJG and WatChe may paying out soon..
It's far from over my friend because Bitcoin has gone up once again and close to 100k$. Bitcoin must have some good plans for year 2025 which will be revealed as time passes.
Poor widdo WatChe.
I just like saying that. It rolls off the tongue.
Poll
