Just say no to the ChartBuddy
On other news: Germany seems to manage a government with a former manager of Black Rock as Chancellor Friedrich Merz. For all his ties I do not expect him to be pro Bitcoin by any means
My best estimate for bitcoin price is dept ceiling increase some time early summer. Till then I am not sure where a new stimulus for the price should come from.
You seem to have a decent amount of narrow thinking about bitcoin price dynamics, and surely the ONLY source of liquidity in the market is not US Govt spending, and even if there has been quite a bit of correlation of bitcoin price to liquidity, I doubt that liquidity is even as correlated to BTC price moves as people like to proclaim it to be.
Another thing is that various macro-events and even including seeming self-sabotage efforts of DOGE - the US government wannabe agency, these crazinesses could end up creating various kinds of panic modes and even excuses to print money, whether covertly or overtly.. in order to bail out whatever catastrophes end up coming about, which is another form of utility, whether intended or not.
I mean yes Strategy ™ will buy more but that was always causing dips afterwards....
Do you make any sense? Yes.. people say dumb shit, but how could Strategy's fairly regular buying of BTC contribute to price dips... That makes no sense. It is one thing to joke about such nonsense, but another thing to actually say it as if it were true.
Someone remind me. When is tax season in US?
Google is your friend.. .. you can ask.. when is the usa tax filing deadline 2025... to the extent that matters either. Yeah.. every year we get folks proclaiming that BTC prices give any shits about tax filing deadlines.
^ $5000 dump incoming.
$4500 dump is acceptable above that it will a chaos.
What is our measuring point for the dump?
I had been considering these bet odds further, and the reason why thinking about them in dollars should not make too much difference is because we can take actions to mitigate our own situation to largely lock in our circumstances in our favor.
Of course, if we consider more or less 10:1 odds at the time of the finalizing of the bet (maybe we were around $95.5k at that time
**).
**Here is largely the post that finalized our bet:@WatChe - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve? including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing? Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not? Maybe I should try to write it out?
Here it is:
The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.
The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.
Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.
If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.
Agree or not?
Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .
I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned. Once we know that the bet is in place (or likely to be in place), each of us has an ability to try to maximize our own benefit in accordance with the expected terms of the bet.
From your perspective, you may well choose to set aside extra money (whether in the form of outstanding BTC buy orders or just holding dollars/fiat on the sidelines) to purchase BTC upon a drop of the BTC price to $90k or lower. Since you consider that such BTC price drop is quite unlikely to happen, you might consider those kinds of price drops, if they were to happen, as opportunities to buy BTC, and you may even have extra buy orders at around or below those BTC price levels in order to reward yourself extra if the BTC price were to drop to such levels. Of course, if the BTC price were to drop to such levels of breaching $90k, then within a reasonable time, you would have to pay me the 30k satoshis of the bet plus any fees for the transaction of those satoshis to me. Perhaps more likely to be on the lightning network or some other mutually agreeable way, such as on chain.... Surely, for you there could be opportunity costs with considering that you have to hold enough dollars (or whatever fiat) on hand until the BTC price drops or to be able to know that you will be able to have those extra dollars (or fiat) to be able to buy BTC at those $90k-ish prices. Regarding fees, we cannot know in advance exactly what the fees will be, so you would have to make sure that you have enough dollars or fiat to purchase enough BTC to cover that too.
From my perspective, it is likely more advantageous to buy the quantity of 3k satoshis plus fees right away and then to hold that value in BTC through the term of the bet in case the BTC price were to go up from the time of the bet or from the time that I was preparing to enter into the bet. Accordingly, if the bet were to end up closing at the highest possible BTC price for the closing of the bet at $333,333, then I would have had already accumulated those 3,000 satoshis and fees at around $3 or perhaps less?. It could also be that I had already purchased some extra 3,000 satoshis plus fees at lower BTC prices, and so then my objective would be to make sure that I were to hold onto those extra BTC for the duration of our bet in case I were to have to pay you those BTC when the BTC price were to be at around $333,333. Regarding fees, it could well be the case that I would want to accumulate extra BTC since we cannot know how much the fees are going to be in the future.
The opportunity costs
for me in preparation of being able to pay the bet is holding the value in BTC, and the opportunity cost for you is holding the value in dollars. Sure, maybe neither of us prepares in advance and we take our chances that we will have the money to buy the requisite BTC at that time of the closing of the bet, and those are the kinds of calculations that each of us has to make in terms of the costs of not preparing in advance. For me, it costs me less than $3 plus fees in today's dollars to buy the 3k satoshis plus fees, yet if I did not prepare in advance it would cost me $10 plus fees in the future to buy the 3k satoshis plus fees if I were to lose the bet at the highest price of the bet closing at $333,333. Surely, we know that $10 in the future will not be worth as much as $10 today, yet even though we know that the dollar is ongoingly debasing at a fairly rapid rate, we might still consider that $10 in the future is still worth more than $3 today, so in that sense there still is an incentive to hold the 3k satoshis plus fees in satoshis rather than holding them in dollars with an anticipating of purchasing in the future, if the bet were to close at $333,333.
For you, you still would potentially be holding dollars and perhaps just setting a BTC buy order at $89,999 so that you can buy the requisite 30k satoshis plus fees in order to cover the bet, if the BTC price were to drop to such levels.. .and maybe it would cost you less to not prepare for such bet, since we know that the dollar and other fiat is ongoingly losing value through its debasement, so you might not have any incentive to prepare in advance to satisfy such bet as long as you know that you are able to generate the $27 plus fees to buy the 30k satoshis that you would owe me and to cover the fees to satisfy the bet if you were to lose the bet. So the $27 plus fees is probably worth more today than it would be in the future if the sub $90k price threshold were to be breached and you were have to pay the bet.
Don't get me wrong, I am not even suggesting that our bet might not close today or at some soon point in the future, such as this week or this month.. versus the outside timeline that the bet might close at the end of 2026. I concede also that the odds are likely in your favor to win the bet, yet I doubt that they are 10 to 1, and as outlined in this post I think that there are ways that each of us can make sure that we prepare ourselves to assure that we are maximizing our side of the bet, including considering our preparations (if any?) in the event that we were to lose the bet.
@saylor
Strategy has acquired 20,356 BTC for ~$1.99B at ~$97,514 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 6.9% YTD 2025. As of 2/23/2025, we hodl 499,096 $BTC acquired for ~$33.1 billion at ~$66,357 per bitcoin. $MSTR
Sign a temporary dip is coming?
so he owns 1/40 of all the coins in the world.
You know if coins ever really bumped up to say 300k he would be holding 1.5 trillion at a cost of 330 billion
not too shabby.
And if coins really went up to 1 million he would be holding 5 trillion at a cost of 330 billion.
Aside from Biodom's correction of your maths and sciences, in the meantime, Saylor/MSTR's target is ongoingly moving, since Saylor/MSTR is likely going to be continuing to buy BTC all the way up to $300k and/or $1 million, and as long as he does not suffer some kind of custodial incident.
In other words, both his costs (and costs per coin) are likely going up and his total asset held are going to go up. I wonder? going up by 50% would put number of coins held at 750k, and surely some folks already consider that Saylor/MSTR has decently good potential to reach 1 million BTC, which seems fantastical at this point, since why would anyone or any entity need/want that many coins?
Poll
