Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

Lambos and girlfriends... if that might be the right word?

and blow too.

Girlfriends? I thought the Lambos and blow crowd preferred hookers.

I was trying to mix it up a bit, so we might not be pigeonholed too much... but yeah, girlfriends are a bit more of a commitment. .even though I have frequently heard the expression, we are all going to get girlfriends (once our bitcoin are worth a certain amout).

Its just getting weird out there.

Like?

more weird than usual?

Interesting...exactly what i was talking about, albeit, NOT available in US:

https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-asset-management-launches-the-coinbase-bitcoin-yield-fund

with 4-8% yearly average yield on bitcoin in BITCOIN, who would ever need to sell?
It's a basis trade fund, using the difference between spot and futures, imho.

Yes. Elsewhere they say it explicitly: all the yield is expected to come from the basis trade - nothing riskier than that. I lost the link and can't find it right now, but it confirms what you're saying.

I wouldn't mind throwing some corn at a thing like that, especially if the custodian is "too big to fail", as Coinbase got to be. As for nonavailability in the US, this is exactly the kind of thing that might change with a friendlier regulator at work. And I'm pretty sure there will be copycats and similar funds will pop up like mushrooms. Trusting the custodian will be the hard bit. But yield without selling is sooooo sweeeet...

So many of those kinds of yield products went tits up in 2022, and yeah, hey, no problem if a guy might say that he can live off of 4-8% in yield that is generated in bitcoin in a kind of perpetual way, so then he decides that the average of the fund (according to their proclamations) might be 6%, so then if he wants to earn $80k income per year off of that, so then he might consider putting around 20 BTC into the fund, so that he can start earning and finding out if he is able to get $80k per year from that.. and I suppose that there are tax ramifications, too...

His yield is likely going to be bit irregular (based on changes in the BTC price and changes in the amount that they are going to be paying for the yield), so yeah maybe he does not need to put 20 BTC into the fund in order to earn his $80k per year. Maybe he can put less into the fund, yet he probably needs to find out the extent that the fund pays off as well as it claims to do, and so he starts to earn his yearly yield from that amount of BTC even though it may well not be paying the full $80k (but he will find out, I suppose), and hopes that he does not get rugged out of his 20-ish BTC in the process.

Maybe if he has 40 BTC, then he might feel that it is worth it to put 1/2 of his BTC into such product, but if he only has 20 BTC, then maybe he might ONLY want to put 10 BTC into it, but then he would ONLY get $40k per year from that rather than $80k.. even though my claim is that currently the threshold amount of BTC for being able to earn $80k per year of sustainable passive income off of it is 17.25 BTC.

+1 WOsMerit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[MithiRM]

Hey...

What could be the reason behind the sudden increase in the price of BTC? Do you know any updates on this?

People trying to get their USPS fix in before the weekend?

Dip when the vendors sell, and then a spike when Saylor hits it with Wall Street "Altstock" money.  (New term I came up with for stocks trying to sucker people away from just buying Bitcoin directly, but still making them "feel" like they are apart of Bitcoin in exchange for paper.)

This is not true at all. These stocks are just trying to mislead people into investing in these altstocks instead of buying Bitcoin. But the fact is, Bitcoin is the only real digital asset that has value in the long run. These stocks are just playing on people's emotions, and the real benefit is Bitcoin. Without these fundamentals, who would want to put money behind paper?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[d_eddie]

Interesting...exactly what i was talking about, albeit, NOT available in US:

https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-asset-management-launches-the-coinbase-bitcoin-yield-fund

with 4-8% yearly average yield on bitcoin in BITCOIN, who would ever need to sell?
It's a basis trade fund, using the difference between spot and futures, imho.

Yes. Elsewhere they say it explicitly: all the yield is expected to come from the basis trade - nothing riskier than that. I lost the link and can't find it right now, but it confirms what you're saying.

I wouldn't mind throwing some corn at a thing like that, especially if the custodian is "too big to fail", as Coinbase got to be. As for nonavailability in the US, this is exactly the kind of thing that might change with a friendlier regulator at work. And I'm pretty sure there will be copycats and similar funds will pop up like mushrooms. Trusting the custodian will be the hard bit. But yield without selling is sooooo sweeeet...

Funny how they tell you the yield is going to be 4% when there is no guarantee that the yield will stay positive in the future. Nothing mechanically prevents it from going negative.

Then, they short real corn
While longing derivatives
The un-carry trade?



#haiku
#not-financial-advice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[d_eddie]

Interesting...exactly what i was talking about, albeit, NOT available in US:

https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-asset-management-launches-the-coinbase-bitcoin-yield-fund

with 4-8% yearly average yield on bitcoin in BITCOIN, who would ever need to sell?
It's a basis trade fund, using the difference between spot and futures, imho.

Yes. Elsewhere they say it explicitly: all the yield is expected to come from the basis trade

Funny how they tell you the yield is going to be 4% when there is no guarantee that the yield will stay positive in the future. Nothing mechanically prevents it from going negative.

In prose: nothing mechanically prevents the funding rate from going negative. Verifiably true: there have been several stretches of negative funding rates. The carry trade (long corn, short futures) gets disrupted when it happens. I don't think the "inverse carry trade" would work too well (shorting corn and longing futures) to monetize negative funding rates.

However, as I'm sure you know very well, the normal state for bitcoin futures is contango - that is, futures are more expensive than today's corn. In other words, the premium - basically the funding rate - is generally positive, at least when bitcoin is expected to go up.

If it's really "going up forever", as Laura often repeats after some guy told her, the more frequent, normal condition could be profitable. Predicting it to stay in the 4%-8% annualized range is another matter, though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Huliya]

BTC🎟️ Golden Tickets changing the game
People see Bitcoin only as an investment. But many do not know that it is also useful for everyday use. This small step by Japan will further increase the use of Bitcoin. I think a politician using a Bitcoin wallet will make Bitcoin more attractive to the people of Japan.
https://x.com/BTCTN/status/1917492043271557273?t=DXieq9uUKHPHEj8oCRpUgQ&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[pinhead666]

Hey all guess this location:

Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Wonder Work]

Hey...

What could be the reason behind the sudden increase in the price of BTC? Do you know any updates on this?

People trying to get their USPS fix in before the weekend?

Dip when the vendors sell, and then a spike when Saylor hits it with Wall Street "Altstock" money.  (New term I came up with for stocks trying to sucker people away from just buying Bitcoin directly, but still making them "feel" like they are apart of Bitcoin in exchange for paper.)

Actually, Due to this confusion, many people invest in altcoins and later find out that they have lost their money. This is a very serious level of confusion that will make you lose your money if you fall into its trap.

Bitcoin is the only coin that is worth more than anything else. Comparing bitcoin with paper or any other currency also seems like a kind of foolishness. At present, however, such misleading words are not very interesting because those who come to this world already know very well that BTC is the only one coin that has long-term value.

[xhomerx10]

Hey all guess this location:

Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?

 While I hadn't heard about any bitcoin bars there, the architecture reminded me of Bucharest, RO but the Bitcoin Bar in that picture is in Budapest, Hungary - not so sure it still exists as there's a kebab place at that location in 2024.

[GeorgeJohn]

Hey all guess this location:

Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?

 While I hadn't heard about any bitcoin bars there, the architecture reminded me of Bucharest, RO but the Bitcoin Bar in that picture is in Budapest, Hungary - not so sure it still exists as there's a kebab place at that location in 2024.

Bitcoin bar may possibly exist but it may not be popular as we may expected, because I have seen Bitcoin restaurants and Bitcoin gas station, but they have two options of payment in Bitcoin restaurants and Gas station, you may neither pay with Bitcoin or traditional currency, To find such bar of Bitcoin might be difficult to locate because of lack of advertisement , or they maybe afraid of exploiting the name of Bitcoin because of government in the place the bar of Bitcoin is situated.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Paashaas]

Bitcoin is dumping again what kind of bullish news did i missed?

[Volgastallion]

Hey all guess this location:

Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?

Im not with the time to do a proper research but its super high chances to be in England/London, you can see the signboard behind with the GBP exchange rate.

It can be another place? Yes for sure but the odds are more in that place i think.