Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[p0peji]

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

All I am seeing is weird bid-walls popping up and goign away without actually buying coins. I mean if you really want to buy coins, why not remove the bid walls, let the price drop and buy on the way down?

[dreamspark]

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?

[wachtwoord]

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead. 

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

[mooncake]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

[ChrisML]

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading. 

Keep it like that, for you're own sake.

[ShroomsKit]

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading. 

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

[eiskalt]

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead. 

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

Thank you very much. I will consider your kind support and maybe use the provided link, when we reach 200$/BTC.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading. 

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

Did you loose too much since the last ATH?

[rpietila]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:

- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.

The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.

So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.

These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cassius]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

[p0peji]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

This is very likely, the big money was already in and is now trying to get out with as much profit/least losses as possible.

[mooncake]

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:

- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.

The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.

So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.

These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.

You are talking about the traders and investors group. I would think that many would have heard of btc already.

It will be interesting when the consumer group comes into the picture. Circle is working on this area, I believe. I'm looking forward to the day they roll out their services.
If you notice, it seems btc now benefits merchants more than consumers. Merchants save on credit card fees but consumers cannot benefit unless merchants pass down the savings. When consumers benefit, that will be when the consumer group will come in.

[ShroomsKit]

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead. 

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

Thank you very much. I will consider your kind support and maybe use the provided link, when we reach 200$/BTC.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading. 

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

Did you loose too much since the last ATH?

I didn't "loose" anything.
So why are you not trading? You know in detail what Bitcoin will do in the future. What is stopping you?

[droptable]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

the userbase is growing.
But the new ones have seen enough burned children to not risk their savings. They go in with small amounts.

[boumalo]

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

The new cohort will be motivate by owning an asset that can't be manipulated by their central government for political purposes and to own an asset that can be easily and cheaply traded around the word

[JorgeStolfi]

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming [ ... ]  These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low [... ]

How does China fit into this picture?  And the growing list of scams and failures of bitcoin-related ventures?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rpietila]

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming [ ... ]  These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low [... ]

How does China fit into this picture?  And the growing list of scams and failures of bitcoin-related ventures?

I am just taking the long-term view and big picture. A large percentage have not even heard of china. The list of scams and failed bitcoin ventures is growing every year, so up until now, the correlation with bitcoin price is positive. What I am trying to explain, are the mechanisms that always take Bitcoin up from the abyss where the majority believes that all hope is lost.

Eg. my own purchase was motivated with the following analysis:
- 75% it will go to zero
- 25% it will turn back and reach ATH, in which case I make 10x.

I know there are more people like this in the world, who buy cheaply, don't read news (they are lies) or forums (who would write anything worthwhile), and are expecting to lose all. Nothing can shake them once they have bought. That's the beauty of it

If bitcoin goes down another 6 months, all the coins belong to the likes of me. You still think the price will go down afterwards?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

This is clearly the pre-amble for the big rally to $5,000

This. And the fact the we didn't hit $550 by May 4th is actually very bullish and Chinese exchanges closing should fill everybody with optimism and hope

[njcarlos]

who would write anything worthwhile

Ain't that the truth, rpietila.

Btw, $10,000 by EOY?