Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adam.sandler]

There is a policy, although it seems simple and trivial, but it is still possible to implement it.
Whales or famous people or large companies that play with the market to increase their money.
Whales create a positive feeling in the market with significant step purchases, ordinary people receive this signal and buy more (more profit in price) and then, boom, heavier sales from the whales begin (people also enter the fear phase and start selling) and after a short period, they continue the same thing again.
Famous people and companies also cause a stir by publishing news about their purchases and after a significant increase, they start selling secretly (yes, it is not completely secret but they no longer shout about this sale like when they bought, although they know how to do it secretly) and again ordinary people get scared.
I agree that people should be well informed about the financial markets they operate in, but unfortunately not everyone is.
I think the winners are the holders, or at least those who hold relatively long-term.

[philipma1957]

Well, Mike went on TV for an interview where he said that he thought Ethereum was going to outperform Bitcoin over the next 3-6 months..

I have many issues trusting someone with a Luna tattoo on his shoulder

Ya, that’s why I said it wasn't a major concern. I don’t know how dude got his money, but from what I’ve seen his investment decisions are subpar at best.

I will say that I bought the dip as to put my money where my mouth is. Maybe not the smartest short term move, but by September I think I’ll be glad I did.

yeah it went back under 16k and I got some dip too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kanftka]

Never stop DCA’ing

Personally, I prefer weekly rather than daily, but sure  at that rate of $50 per day or maybe $350 per week, maybe a couple of times a week for the buys would be cool with me to try to buy during dips in the week.

I feel you, I actually go with weekly too. It is just more chill and makes me feel less pressured.. That screenshot isn’t even mine though, just saw it online and thought it was a cool post to share.

Daily feels a bit too intense... and yeah $350 a week sounds really solid….

50/day or $350/wk is a solid 18.2K/year DCA and it is probably close to a maximum that a family (or a person) with middle class income (70-150K) in US can afford sans a ramen "diet".
However, 18K a year starting mid 2025 would most likely would not make someone "rich" in 2030, but they might have a good "emergency fund".

If you'll have an average of 40% yearly appreciation during 2025-2030 time frame, my approximation shows a final sum of about $279K value, give or take $20K (compound interest calculator gives a 248-291K value depending on interest rate being a fixed yearly 40% or compounded yearly 40%)).
A nice "fund" for emergencies and buying a house, for example, but definitely not "rich".

Yeah true, when you break it down like that, $18K/year from mid 2025 probably won’t make someone rich by 2030, but honestly, a $279K bag in 5 years off regular buys is still crazy solid. Not everyone will pull that off, especially with discipline. And like you said, that is house buying or emergency fund level money, which is life changing in itself depending on where you live.

[d_eddie]

The issue at this point, I think, is that liquidity is pulling both ways. There are fat juicy clusters of bids/asks at 113k-115k and 120k+, respectively. Market wants to chomp chomp it all. Which way? Or, possibly, which way first? If I were Market, I'd go for down first, because if I chomp the upper mouthful first, the lower one might vanish. Not the other way round, I suppose (well - being a near-permabull and all).

People seem to like to say down before up, since it seems so logical, and sure, frequently bitcoin cooperates, yet if we zoom out, bitcoin looks like nearly a straight uppity line, so it can be dangerous to rely in any meaningful way on down before up.

Of course I'm talking from a zoomed-in, very local view (1 week, or a few).

My next buy order is $115k-ish

My buy order was a bit over 115k and it got filled

and then they are largely in increments of every $3,500-ish down.. My next sell order is $124.5k-ish.. so that one barely got missed (by about $1.2k).. which would have caused a buy order at $120k-ish since my buy order increments will start to be every $5k-ish.. so the larger gaps mean less action.. and/or less need for my involvement.

I don't have a proper buy+sell double ladder yet. Just buying dips as it is now. I'm going to sell some, maybe in a larger chunk, very soon now.

there is a transitioning period.. just like we get the sense that the choppers gaps are currently feeling "too big."

The transitioning period is coming for me, very soon. I'm going to pull the FY lever, but I have to train myself a bit. Maybe setting up a sell ladder just to keep my fiat stash wet could be one of the first steps.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[danadc]

The market corrections that are happening right now are natural, many are taking advantage of the opportunity to buy, I think opportunities should be seized:

Is Bitcoin’s Summer Slowdown a Buying Opportunity?

Adding to this cautious sentiment is Bitcoin’s repeated failure to decisively breach the $122,000 resistance level. The report highlights that technical indicators are softening, and with institutional demand cooling, the market lacks the fuel needed for another immediate rally.

cryptodnes:https://cryptodnes.bg/en/is-bitcoins-summer-slowdown-a-buying-opportunity/


I find this analysis interesting regarding profit-taking by taking advantage of the market:

The net realized profit/loss chart clearly shows strong spikes of profit-taking by investors during price growth phases. There's a high probability we'll see one or two more waves of profit-taking before the price enters a deeper correction.

Each such wave will be accompanied by short-term correction and consolidation, but as long as the net realized profit peaks don't exceed previous extremes or are comparable in volume, the bullish trend remains intact.

Ideally, these healthy pullbacks will allow the market to cool down from excessive overheating and continue moving upward.

x:https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1948650820196544755

For those who bought at $122k or even $120k, there is now a good opportunity to buy back and get more BTC. Of course, if the price drops a little more, it is totally worth it since the price is around $116.8k.

[Ivystar5]

yeah it went back under 16k and I got some dip too.

The cornz are now looking expensive when I convert the price I bought earlier and now yet I added

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

how low do we go?

maybe we need to test 100 one last time before boarding the winter rocket

Never say never, yet it is hardly even necessary to get that level of correction in order to shake out quite a few weak hands.

With our 200-WMA still lingering at $50,400, I am not willing to bet any higher than $80k in terms of where I would be saying that the BTC price will not go below such price point prior to the end of 2025 and therefore never again.. since by the time we get to the end of 2025, the 200-WMA should be at least $75k by then.. god willing... yet my own personal bitcoin management system recognizes (and therefore accepts) that BTC's spot price could go 35% below the 200-WMA in bear markets, so maybe mid-to-late 2026 or thereafter.

During bull markets, which we are in right now, the spot price should not even come close to going below 25% above the 200-WMA, and $0k is close to 60% above the 200-WMA, so it would even be a risky bet for me to take in regards to my assertion that sub $0k will never be touched again, even though I am willing to take it for funzies... I personally believe that sub $100k is less than 50/50 odds within the next several weeks, yet at the same time, I would not bet it.. ..I am not even sure what number I would put on sub $100k.  Maybe ballparkedly 42% or so?.. not that 42% is much different from 50%.  just slightly different in the whole scheme of things.. which is maybe again why sub $100k is not bettable from my perspective, unless I am able to receive odds, like 90% or something like that.

It's the last friday of this month, so Future's gap(s) wanna be filled.
I'll prepare for recovery on monday, maybe even earlier.
#nothingtoseehere

Then we will be "poor" for only a few days

I've recently turned my luck around when it comes to selling BTC, because usually whenever I sell the price would jump in the next 24 hours, now when I sell the price drops. It's not about large amounts, but about something that helps a little to make it easier to survive until the next monthly salary.

Part of the difficulty in selling is to figure out when to buy back in so that you actually end up having more BTC than you had upon selling.

Personally, I would not recommend anyone to sell, unless they don't have any expectation of buying back lower.

Never stop DCA’ing

Personally, I prefer weekly rather than daily, but sure  at that rate of $50 per day or maybe $350 per week, maybe a couple of times a week for the buys would be cool with me to try to buy during dips in the week.

Buying the dip at $115K is a crazy thing to experience. Not going to lie, I thought we would all be flying around in helicopters when Bitcoin hit $4K, so maybe hitting a million is that far fetched. I always thought that if it happened people would be too rich, but looking back I guess I always thought that…

It is funny how redistribution of wealth takes place in a somewhat invisible kind of a way.  Some folks take a bit of time, too, to get used to figuring out how to spend their money.

50/day or $350/wk is a solid 18.2K/year DCA and it is probably close to a maximum that a family (or a person) with middle class income (70-150K) in US can afford sans a ramen "diet".
However, 18K a year starting mid 2025 would most likely would not make someone "rich" in 2030, but they might have a good "emergency fund".

Ok.... I am not even sure if that rate of stacking would get them a whole bitcoin after 10 years.  Perphaps? Perhaps?

$18,200 per year is $182k invested over 10 years.

Sure it is possible that might have had been able to get a whole bitcoin in 10 years, and the BTC price may be bounding around a million or more at that time.

Yes, I know you had proposed 7 years for our staying in the 6 digits and it is looking like I am being more bearish.

By the way my current projection of the 200-WMA, only shows between $550k and $600k for mid 2035... . and I am not showing the 200-WMA going above $1 million until either late 2038 or early 2039...  yet of course, the numbers can change based on either upwards or downwards steppenings.

By the way, my projection of the 200-WMA shows right around 1.5 BTC as entry level fuck you status in mid-2035, so it could be possible that a guy investing $350 per week, and then maybe adding some various buys at other times during the year (like if he got bonuses), could assure himself to make sure that he reaches a couple of BTC.  I figure that a guy who is able to invest $350 per week or $18.2k per year, he is likely making more than $60k per year, otherwise it is difficult to imagine normal guys being able to put that much in bitcoin, even though surely some of the wages are going up, even with the dollar ongoingly debasing.

If you'll have an average of 40% yearly appreciation during 2025-2030 time frame, my approximation shows a final sum of about $279K value, give or take $20K (compound interest calculator gives a 248-291K value depending on interest rate being a fixed yearly 40% or compounded yearly 40%)).
A nice "fund" for emergencies and buying a house, for example, but definitely not "rich".

I have $230k for the 200-WMA in mid-2030, so it seems that spot prices are going to be higher, even though sure 2030 might be a correction year, to the extent that cycles might still exist... and yeah, 2030 is not that far away, so better to just assume cycles to still exist.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

The issue at this point, I think, is that liquidity is pulling both ways. There are fat juicy clusters of bids/asks at 113k-115k and 120k+, respectively. Market wants to chomp chomp it all. Which way? Or, possibly, which way first? If I were Market, I'd go for down first, because if I chomp the upper mouthful first, the lower one might vanish. Not the other way round, I suppose (well - being a near-permabull and all).

People seem to like to say down before up, since it seems so logical, and sure, frequently bitcoin cooperates, yet if we zoom out, bitcoin looks like nearly a straight uppity line, so it can be dangerous to rely in any meaningful way on down before up.

Of course I'm talking from a zoomed-in, very local view (1 week, or a few).

My next buy order is $115k-ish

My buy order was a bit over 115k and it got filled

and then they are largely in increments of every $3,500-ish down.. My next sell order is $124.5k-ish.. so that one barely got missed (by about $1.2k).. which would have caused a buy order at $120k-ish since my buy order increments will start to be every $5k-ish.. so the larger gaps mean less action.. and/or less need for my involvement.

I don't have a proper buy+sell double ladder yet. Just buying dips as it is now. I'm going to sell some, maybe in a larger chunk, very soon now.

Ok. So perhaps you are in the early stages of considering that you have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin?  For sure, it can be difficult to know if you might not be selling too much too soon... but you been around these here parts long enough that surely it could be in the cards that you could have accumulated enough (since mid 2017, that is 8 years and two full cycles).. which actually seems fair.. 

On my own behalf, I mostly just kept buying until mid-2015 when I determined that I had reached overaccumulation status, but then I think that I was still a bit torn about it, yet as of mid-to-late 2015, I authorized myself to sell on the way up and buy back on the way down, yet I set my orders in such a way that I was not concerned if the BTC price would come back down or not.. so I set the sell orders in such a way to assume that if the BTC price kept going up, I would be o.k. with that kind of an outcome.

I never really did any large chunk sales because I frequently would think that if I made large chunk sales, then I would have been worried that I sold too much too soon.. but maybe that is just me.

Having a gap between accumulating and starting to sell can be another thing to consider, which maybe in some sense, if you start to do some price-based sales on the way up, then those are a bit easier to execute than the time-based sales.. since time based sells may well be selling a chunk of BTC at any time and no matter the price.. which seems to be a bit of a later stage level of overaccumulation as compared with some of the price based sales.. yet either of them can have a bit of a price based component that allows greater level of sales when the BTC price goes up..

there is a transitioning period.. just like we get the sense that the choppers gaps are currently feeling "too big."

The transitioning period is coming for me, very soon. I'm going to pull the FY lever, but I have to train myself a bit. Maybe setting up a sell ladder just to keep my fiat stash wet could be one of the first steps.

Price based sales could be figured out, yet one of the disadvantages is if you start to need cash on a regular basis, then you might have to withdraw periodically.. once a month? once a quarter? a couple times a year? 

Surely if you consider that you reached overaccumulation status, but none of your sales are bringing you out of overaccumulation status then that would be a good place to be... which should mean that your BTC stash is gaining in dollar value greater than the rate that you are cashing it out... which I like to use the 200-WMA to figure out my own limitations in regards to how much I am able to withdraw without overdoing it.. .which of course, I have given examples quite a few times if you might want to consider the extent to which any withdrawal formula that you are planning to carry out is sustainable, or alternatively if you were planning to deplete your principle.

The market corrections that are happening right now are natural, many are taking advantage of the opportunity to buy, I think opportunities should be seized:
Is Bitcoin’s Summer Slowdown a Buying Opportunity?

Adding to this cautious sentiment is Bitcoin’s repeated failure to decisively breach the $122,000 resistance level. The report highlights that technical indicators are softening, and with institutional demand cooling, the market lacks the fuel needed for another immediate rally.

cryptodnes:https://cryptodnes.bg/en/is-bitcoins-summer-slowdown-a-buying-opportunity/
I find this analysis interesting regarding profit-taking by taking advantage of the market:

The net realized profit/loss chart clearly shows strong spikes of profit-taking by investors during price growth phases. There's a high probability we'll see one or two more waves of profit-taking before the price enters a deeper correction.

Each such wave will be accompanied by short-term correction and consolidation, but as long as the net realized profit peaks don't exceed previous extremes or are comparable in volume, the bullish trend remains intact.
Ideally, these healthy pullbacks will allow the market to cool down from excessive overheating and continue moving upward.

x:https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1948650820196544755

For those who bought at $122k or even $120k, there is now a good opportunity to buy back and get more BTC. Of course, if the price drops a little more, it is totally worth it since the price is around $116.8k.

Sounds retarded to be trying to trade BTC around these prices.  You have one of the best, if not the best, asset in the world, and guys want to try to trade it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy is done with sales for a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy needs to get ready for the weekend.