It seems that MSTR premium is "just" 32.4% rn.
A bit low, imho.
Then, again, some people (Chanos) think that it ought to have "no premium".
M. Saylor thinks that premium should be 150-300% (X2.5-4X).
I'd say that at least 70-80% premium is justified, imho.
A somewhat new series of products that is offered by Saylor and/or MSTR that the market is trying to figure out the value of MSTR as compared to various related products, and sure maybe even the price dynamics of bitcoin gets affected by how the market players interact with these various options.
saw this one on reddit lmao.
They never understand.
I think that so many of us have been in some kind of a similar conversation. I just keep telling them the same thing. Bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting weaker with the passage of time, yet normies continue to not get in. They refuse to get started.. and I don't even tell them to inject some large amount. I suggest to start buying weekly.. but yeah, it is pretty rare that any normie no coiner listens to me in order to subsequently become a coiner.
Also yeah $1k is not really very much these days... even though some folks might not be able to come up with $1k, but they might be able to come up with $100 per week, and if they budget around the $100 per week, they might not even really miss it very much... another thing is keeping the investment going for a whole cycle.. and surely one of the problems is that when they get in and they already consider bitcoin to be expensive, they become even more unable to keep buying when it gets more and more expensive.
It is hard to find a way out, since no one likes to lose money.. so it could take 4 years or more before they are either in profits or starting to feel that their average cost per coin is sufficiently lower than the spot price in order to get some sense of having enough of a financial cushion.
I'd say that at least 70-80% premium is justified, imho.
I'm curious as to how you come to this conclusion. Their software business operates at a net loss and their non-Bitcoin assets are about 1% of their total asset value.
Whether Biodom is accurate or not in his estimate in the level of the MSTR premium, rather than it merely being closer to flat, it should be hard to deny that MSTR has become a leader in the bitcoin treasuries department, including that even though they have used other people's money to build their bitcoin stash, their debt to asset ratio remains quite low and they have come up with a whole hell of a lot of complementary financial products. Sure there is some benefits to having other underlying positive cashflowing businesses, which I think is part of the reason that they are currently looking to acquire some positive cashflowing businesses.
I personally am not too excited about the idea of buying MSTR or any of its derivative products, yet they are offering quite a few creative bitcoin-related products that likely are going to continue to entice interest, which end up being creative ways that MSTR accesses other people's money at a rate that is likely to continue to be less than the performance of the underlying asset (ie our lil precious), and in the whole scheme of things, normal people cannot access capital as such friendly terms as MSTR. which contributes to at least some premium whether it is as much as the level that Biodom considers to be reasonable or not..
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It may seem like I'm joking, but I agree with everything you're saying here.
I trade bitcoin since it cost 500usd, and yes, if I wasn't addicted to trading BTC, I would have much and much more than I have now,
At least you can admit that trading bitcoin has put you into a worse position than where you would have had been.. Yet from the other parts of your post, you are still considering trading rather than getting into investing, since I really doubt that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker, even if some portion of bitcoin's upward price slope is not as steep as it used to be, in terms of percentages.
1000usd was a strong resistance, then 5k too, but when it went to 17k I was all short at 10k, when I rebought everything I had at 17k and it went back to 5k and stayed below 17k for a couple of years, When I decided to recover by making more trades, mainly with altcoins, and suddenly BTC was above 25k and I was full of alts and full of accumulated losses.... and these losses have always continued to happen... But that's not why I stopped trading BTC..., I can say that I'm still addicted to it today,... 40k was also a resistance that lasted quite a while,...
You might not understand bitcoin very well if you think that it is good to be trading these various points of possible resistance, especially since bitcoin remains such a budding asset class, so it is going to have periods in which it stair steps up, and you will have sold too much too soon, so then even if you had been able to make profits in a whole bunch of your trades, you will find that you will miss out on areas to really double and/or triple your value over a short period of time.. and then it gets boring and it may even correct a lot, but you still would be in a good place by holding and otherwise just living your life off of other income sources until it recovers again.
But, worse than the losses, it was necessary to sell out of necessity,, after it went to 60k and came back below 30k, I needed to make a big sale for health reasons, it hurt even more after I sold below 30k and the price went back above 60 and quickly was at 100k, how then can I say that trading is better than just buying and keeping?,
Of course if we are on the right side of these matters, then we build up our bitcoin holdings, but at the same time we make sure that we have sufficient and/or adequate back up funds to cover various extra expenses that might come and/or shortages in our income... so if whether we are trading or investing, we should be attempting to make sure that we have a sufficient cash cushion in place, yet even with your case if you did not have enough cash on hand, yet if you had been investing since your forum registration date, even if you would have had been forced to sell some of your stash in the $30ks, the average costs of an investor who had started and perhaps attempted to stack aggressively in the beginning may well would have had been quite a bit below $10k by the time we got into 2021 and you would have had even more time to stack in 2022, 2023 and 2024 if you are saying that you had made some of your sales in 2024. For sure the bitcoin price has been all over the place since 2018, yet attempting to have a focus on just accumulating bitcoin and keeping a sufficient cash cushion, then you might be able to avoid feeling that you are losing when it comes time for unexpected expenditures or otherwise shortages in your income.
You might just have difficulties focusing on accumulating without getting distracted by price.. at least trying to accumulate for 4 years straight and then reassessing.. .. there likely are some folks who can attempt to accumulate aggressively, yet if the BTC price goes below your average purchase price, you may well still be able to continue to accumulate and recognize BTC prices to be cheaper than your already existing average cost, rather than getting worked up about some kind of a need to sell or to pause your accumulation.. even though surely guys might sometimes try to figure out how to accumulate based on BTC price moves, especially once they had already been accumulating BTC for a while.
But yes as I said before, I also get it right, and when I get it right, I leave the profit in BTC and not touch, and there is a part that I don't sell and even if I can't, my intention will always be to trade BTC, whether I want to or not, practically when I can, I've been looking at the price of BTC every day for more than ten years, And incredible as it may seem, it makes me feel good....
I suppose if you are employing ways to limit your trade exposure that would be helpful. I tend to recommend people who cannot resist to limit their trading to less than 10% the size of their bitcoin investment, without cheating (meaning without ongoingly drawing from their BTC after they lose their trading stash - even though new money coming in can be divided in the agreed to ratio of 90/10). But yeah, you might be too far gone for such limitations, even though such limitations might help you, even if they are higher than what I would recommend.. maybe something like 25% might be more acceptable to you where you are still able to keep the thrill of potentially building your trade holdings at a greater rate than your bitcoin (from the potential smartness of your trades, if such a thing is even possible).
I also don't follow anyone's trading ideas, I just follow my ideas,,
Nothing wrong with that as long as you are ongoingly trying to learn from yourself. I would imagine that sometimes others might have better ideas, yet I can understand the idea that you should be the final decider in regards to if some ideas are good or not in terms of attempting to put them into practice.
and my way of trading is based on trend, moving average lines 50 and 180, I follow the timeframes of 1h, 1D, 1w 1month charts, and volume, and what guides me, are my trend lines that were drawn in the monthly, and the other timeframes follow and where these lines intersect, I see great opportunities, blue lines for uptrends and red lines for downtrends previously traced, and as incredible as it seems, the price follows them.,
Fair enough. I can see how that can be addictive, so then there can be a question of position size and also your acknowledgement that even if you might get way more than the majority of your calls correct, there is something wrong with your practice if you are still losing more than you had gained or not making much progress when you lose out on a couple of trades because you ended up selling too much too soon, so keeping an ongoing long in which 75% to 90% or more of your holdings are longing bitcoin, then that might offset some of the losses that come from your ending up sometimes selling too much too soon.
You somehow have to figure out a way to take into account that bitcoin's trend is up, and there sometimes are surprise periods in which the BTC price goes up and you have no way of knowing in advance when those stairstep ups are going to end up happening. .and you mostly want to be in during those periods, but you end up kind of fucked if you had sold more than 50% of your holdings..
I could put a print of my TradingView's chart full of lines here, and it would be a beautiful reason for everyone here to laugh a lot, not to mention that I already assume that I am a mischievous reason for having all these losses...
Guys don't seem to get too excited about trading, but it is not off topic to post them, as long as you are not too arrogant about your charts. Some guys get a bit arrogant about their charts and perhaps assign higher odds to down than are reasonable, so then there can be some irritation that they are talking their book rather than really engaging in reasonable price analysis. I would not be opposed to your sharing your charts, and I might even argue with you about them... and call you names.. hahahahaha.. .. and I suppose those can be risks when you might post ideas that might be controversial.. and so long as you are not posting about shitcoins, some of us might not really object to the contents.
About 120k being a temporary resistance, I can say based on my weekly chart tradingview, 116 would be the resistance and 124k the highest price so far, and if we don't lose the 116k the price can try to go to the next crossing of lines which would be at 157, and 180k, but, the next touch on the blue line would be at 131k, As this week was a sell-off, then the greater probability is to go for the moving average of 50 in the weekly that is at 93k, but really in the last two years the price has been more high than low, so it is a little difficult to see the price go to 93k,, and it can be said that 100k has become a good support..., but these are all predictions, and I can't see the price drop much...
Nothing too controversial about those kinds of proclamations, even though it could be problematic if you are overly betting in one direction versus another, and let's say that you are busy selling at various resistance points, but the price keeps going up, and you are selling more than you are buying, so you end up getting fucked because you hardly have any bitcoin by the time the price goes to $157k or even $180k and then if it keeps going up, you will be stuck with a lot of cash and hardly any coins (or maybe even no coins, which that would seem very problematic).
We have had a lot of guys coming and going in this thread who had thought that they had smartly sold and kept telling us about that, but the BTC price kept going up after their sell point.. and they might not get totally reckt after one or two times, but then their wreckening keeps repeating and pretty soon they are not posting any more.
***But one thing I give you for sure, even if necessary I need to sell my remaining cryptos,, in the best opportunity I will buy some amount, just to be able to trade with BTC, this has become part of my routine, every day I need to see the price of BTC
I doubt that there are many guys in this thread that want to hear about your fucking around with shitcoins, even if your goals might be to accumulate more bitcoin with them... those kinds of conversations tend to devolve into talking about which shitcoins are less shitty, and so many of us have found that in this thread, it has tended to be better to have a zero tolerance approach to shitcoins, even though surely there are some members who get their shitcoin talking points in from time to time.
Thanks JJG for enlightening me that 1M is 4 to 5 years away.
If it's over 1 million I will cash out some of my Bitcoins to fulfil few things in my wish list. Lets hope Bitcoin reaches 1M in next 5 years.
$1 million in 4-5 years is one of the possible scenarios, yet each of us should be attempting to prepare ourselves both financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios.
There were so many folks in 2016 and early 2017 who continued to think that the top of the 2017 run would be around $5k at most, yet in that year when the BTC price went up to $19,666, there were some folks who held through all of that and maybe only sold a few BTC at various points along the way up, but they still had plenty of bitcoin, even when the BTC price got into the $17ks and above... so then some of those guys just held through much of that whole period, even if they might have had gone from 3x to 5x to 10x to 19x and beyond in the level of the BTC profits on paper.
So there can be some advantages in regards to being prepared even for scenarios that are way beyond your expectations and to have a general plan regarding how to treat such BTC price move situations if they were to play out.
My own style has been to have various points along the way that I sell, yet with me, I had already proclaimed to have had gotten to overaccumulation status in 2014-ish.. and I had never fallen out of such overaccumulation status, so even if I might have had been wrong in my assessment of my won overaccumlation status, the BTC price ongoingly going up in the last 10-ish years has largely just bolstered that overaccumulation status, so I have already outlined a tentative plan past $1 million and even past $10 million, yet I ONLY have concrete sell orders set up to about $500k.. since from my current perspective, it seems a bit unrealistic to set up my BTC sell orders beyond $500k.. even though if the BTC price starts to get close to $250k, I will likely have to reconsider the extent to which it might be practical for me to set sell orders up higher than $500k..
I remember Dec 2017, everyone was saying that next year we will see Bitcoin at 100k but year later price of Bitcoin in Dec 2018 was around 4k. So you are right in saying that we need to mentally ready for all possible scenarios.
I am in accumulation phase and though I have Bitcoin at lower price still available but I am not selling at current ATH because I have learned from my experience that Bitcoin will soon be at 200k. So better keep accumulating and sell some when price went up to 200k and 300k.
I am not much of a fan for selling in order to buy back cheaper.. but yeah, if you have been accumulating for a while you might be able to figure out some of the potential beneficial price points for accomplishing that.
One of the best ways to assume that you are continuing to accumulate more bitcoin is by continuing to buy... and yeah some guys might take a moderate approach by holding back on their bitcoin buys when the price is seeming frothy.. and it can be really difficult to say what is good for any particular guy.
Even you, you have been registered on the forum since January 2020, so you have had opportunities to accumulate decent amounts of BTC, yet at the same time, you have asserted that you have sold bitcoin from time to time during that time, which surely seems problematic from my point of view... even though several times you have defended your position, even though you admit that you are still in accumulation phase. In the end, you are choosing and you are living with the consequences of your choices.
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