Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Lazy in August
This is what she likes to do
Coiling, recoiling




#haiku

[LFC_Bitcoin]

$6,000 up on Friday, $3,000 down now. Interesting week ahead, wouldn’t like to see it go much, if any lower.

Bulls are going to have to step in at some point, it’s all looking rather weak.

[d_eddie]

Treasury companies hopefully will step in and kick up the buying volume some. Then if Powell could please give us some brrrr, now that would be grand, thank you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Liocen]

$6,000 up on Friday, $3,000 down now. Interesting week ahead, wouldn’t like to see it go much, if any lower.

Bulls are going to have to step in at some point, it’s all looking rather weak.

No problem, our ChartBuddy now has two eyes. With one eye, he is bringing up the pyramid era of Egypt, and with the other eye, he is waiting to see the million dollar green scandal of Bitcoin. And what is happening now is through the middle part of the two eyes, i.e. the blind spot. No problem, the pyramids will come back again.

Treasury companies hopefully will step in and kick up the buying volume some. Then if Powell could please give us some brrrr, now that would be grand, thank you.

Maybe they're[Treasury companies] loading fuel and they're waiting for Powell.

[WatChe]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Just noticed buddy's new look. Nice 

[ESG]

 ____~_______...
Just noticed buddy's new look. Nice  

Yes! Very Nice! your avatar , too!>>>

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Speaking of being a millionaire, it's nostalgia time again.

 I became a millionaire in Romanian lei a little before 2005 which was a little before the gov't converted the Third leu (ROL) in to the Fourth leu (RON) and a rate of ten thousand to one.  It was no great feat - I suppose every Romanian was a millionaire due to government incompetence; arguably the silliest way to become a millionaire.

 In 2006, we went to buy a couple of train tickets from the capital to the Black Sea coast.  The cashier said, "400" (no currency mentioned but the default was RON by then) and my wife started peeling off 4 X 100 RON notes to hand over.  I was trying to get my head around the cost - at the time, we could have probably taken the train from TO to Montreal (in Canada) for about that same amount and since I had checked into it, I new I could rent a little Honda Civic for about 70 RON per day in Romania.  The price didn't make sense and as I told my wife, "Hang on a second!  This doesn't make sense... I could rent a car for the weekend and it would be cheaper...", she was already forking over the 400 RON.   The cashiers eyes suddenly got huge and she appeared to panic, shaking her head from side to side vigorously but she just repeated the same number only louder "Nu! 400!"  I had a quick discussion with my wife - "It can't possibly be 400 old lei because that wouldn't fetch a penny but I know she's saying 400 (patru sute)."  Finally, the cashier took one of our 100 RON notes and gave us back 60 RON so it was actually 40 RON for the two of us to take the train to the coast. (That's an awesome deal by the way - it was ~US$10 at the time and that's when I got an idea that retiring in Romania might be a good option in the future).  It hurt my brain but I finally realized that in a very short time, Romanians had adopted a habit of telling you the cost in thousands of old lei and just dropping the thousand, leaving it up to the payer to go the last decimal place on their own.  Everyone, everywhere... not just the cashiers but everyone we spoke with did the same nonsensical conversion.  Sometimes, even when I used that method it didn't seem right - case in point, we had purchased a new watch for my dad but had the band sized a bit small.  No problem, we took it to a jeweler to have a link put back in... he did it quite quickly and then said, "thirteen lei"  - now this guy must be speaking in terms of RON (the new currency) because 13 RON would have been a little under US$3, right?  Nope!  It was 1.3 RON or about 30 American cents.  He demonstrated the actual amount while holding my wife's wallet after assuring us he didn't plan on stealing it.  I gave him the 13 RON anyway and thanked him for the lesson after which, he gave us a lifetime guarantee on the watchband size.  So I was all set.  I had finally figured out the new money and I boldly strode into a little grocery shop on our way to dinner one evening to get myself a Coca-Cola light and some sugar free breath mints... I set it on the counter with a friendly. "Buna seara!" and the young lady behind the counter looked at me and said "cinlei" which was a new word(s) on me - a lazy way of saying "cinci lei" - so it took me a second but then I quickly converted using the New Romanian math... she means 5000 old lei, move the decimal place over to the left and bingo bango bongo - 50 bani! (half a RON).  I dug into my pocket, pulled out a 50 bani coin and handed it to the young lady.  She held it between her thumb and index finger, tilted her head to the side, put her hand on her hip, furrowed her brow and rolled her eyes at me (typical Romanian way of saying - "come on, man").  Then she twisted the screen toward me, stuck her index finger under the total and said again, "cinlei".  You guess it, it was 5 RON.  I pulled out 5 RON note and told her to keep the 50 bani and left the shop feeling dumber than when I had arrived.  Millionaire life was difficult in Romania.

[Liocen]

Speaking of being a millionaire, it's nostalgia time again.

 I became a millionaire in Romanian lei a little before 2005 which was a little before the gov't converted the Third leu (ROL) in to the Fourth leu (RON) and a rate of ten thousand to one.  It was no great feat - I suppose every Romanian was a millionaire due to government incompetence; arguably the silliest way to become a millionaire.

 In 2006, we went to buy a couple of train tickets from the capital to the Black Sea coast.  The cashier said, "400" (no currency mentioned but the default was RON by then) and my wife started peeling off 4 X 100 RON notes to hand over.  I was trying to get my head around the cost - at the time, we could have probably taken the train from TO to Montreal (in Canada) for about that same amount and since I had checked into it, I new I could rent a little Honda Civic for about 70 RON per day in Romania.  The price didn't make sense and as I told my wife, "Hang on a second!  This doesn't make sense... I could rent a car for the weekend and it would be cheaper...", she was already forking over the 400 RON.   The cashiers eyes suddenly got huge and she appeared to panic, shaking her head from side to side vigorously but she just repeated the same number only louder "Nu! 400!"  I had a quick discussion with my wife - "It can't possibly be 400 old lei because that wouldn't fetch a penny but I know she's saying 400 (patru sute)."  Finally, the cashier took one of our 100 RON notes and gave us back 60 RON so it was actually 40 RON for the two of us to take the train to the coast. (That's an awesome deal by the way - it was ~US$10 at the time and that's when I got an idea that retiring in Romania might be a good option in the future).  It hurt my brain but I finally realized that in a very short time, Romanians had adopted a habit of telling you the cost in thousands of old lei and just dropping the thousand, leaving it up to the payer to go the last decimal place on their own.  Everyone, everywhere... not just the cashiers but everyone we spoke with did the same nonsensical conversion.  Sometimes, even when I used that method it didn't seem right - case in point, we had purchased a new watch for my dad but had the band sized a bit small.  No problem, we took it to a jeweler to have a link put back in... he did it quite quickly and then said, "thirteen lei"  - now this guy must be speaking in terms of RON (the new currency) because 13 RON would have been a little under US$3, right?  Nope!  It was 1.3 RON or about 30 American cents.  He demonstrated the actual amount while holding my wife's wallet after assuring us he didn't plan on stealing it.  I gave him the 13 RON anyway and thanked him for the lesson after which, he gave us a lifetime guarantee on the watchband size.  So I was all set.  I had finally figured out the new money and I boldly strode into a little grocery shop on our way to dinner one evening to get myself a Coca-Cola light and some sugar free breath mints... I set it on the counter with a friendly. "Buna seara!" and the young lady behind the counter looked at me and said "cinlei" which was a new word(s) on me - a lazy way of saying "cinci lei" - so it took me a second but then I quickly converted using the New Romanian math... she means 5000 old lei, move the decimal place over to the left and bingo bango bongo - 50 bani! (half a RON).  I dug into my pocket, pulled out a 50 bani coin and handed it to the young lady.  She held it between her thumb and index finger, tilted her head to the side, put her hand on her hip, furrowed her brow and rolled her eyes at me (typical Romanian way of saying - "come on, man").  Then she twisted the screen toward me, stuck her index finger under the total and said again, "cinlei".  You guess it, it was 5 RON.  I pulled out 5 RON note and told her to keep the 50 bani and left the shop feeling dumber than when I had arrived.  Millionaire life was difficult in Romania.

You may have been a millionaire in the old ROL. But inflation in Romania was so severe that the government was forced to introduce a new currency and the number of digits was reduced by 1 for every 10,000. I read the history a few days ago.
Anyway, maybe you had temporary problems after becoming a millionaire, but you became a millionaire ☺️

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Speaking of being a millionaire, it's nostalgia time again.

 I became a millionaire in Romanian lei a little before 2005 which was a little before the gov't converted the Third leu (ROL) in to the Fourth leu (RON) and a rate of ten thousand to one.  It was no great feat - I suppose every Romanian was a millionaire due to government incompetence; arguably the silliest way to become a millionaire.

 In 2006, we went to buy a couple of train tickets from the capital to the Black Sea coast.  The cashier said, "400" (no currency mentioned but the default was RON by then) and my wife started peeling off 4 X 100 RON notes to hand over.  I was trying to get my head around the cost - at the time, we could have probably taken the train from TO to Montreal (in Canada) for about that same amount and since I had checked into it, I new I could rent a little Honda Civic for about 70 RON per day in Romania.  The price didn't make sense and as I told my wife, "Hang on a second!  This doesn't make sense... I could rent a car for the weekend and it would be cheaper...", she was already forking over the 400 RON.   The cashiers eyes suddenly got huge and she appeared to panic, shaking her head from side to side vigorously but she just repeated the same number only louder "Nu! 400!"  I had a quick discussion with my wife - "It can't possibly be 400 old lei because that wouldn't fetch a penny but I know she's saying 400 (patru sute)."  Finally, the cashier took one of our 100 RON notes and gave us back 60 RON so it was actually 40 RON for the two of us to take the train to the coast. (That's an awesome deal by the way - it was ~US$10 at the time and that's when I got an idea that retiring in Romania might be a good option in the future).  It hurt my brain but I finally realized that in a very short time, Romanians had adopted a habit of telling you the cost in thousands of old lei and just dropping the thousand, leaving it up to the payer to go the last decimal place on their own.  Everyone, everywhere... not just the cashiers but everyone we spoke with did the same nonsensical conversion.  Sometimes, even when I used that method it didn't seem right - case in point, we had purchased a new watch for my dad but had the band sized a bit small.  No problem, we took it to a jeweler to have a link put back in... he did it quite quickly and then said, "thirteen lei"  - now this guy must be speaking in terms of RON (the new currency) because 13 RON would have been a little under US$3, right?  Nope!  It was 1.3 RON or about 30 American cents.  He demonstrated the actual amount while holding my wife's wallet after assuring us he didn't plan on stealing it.  I gave him the 13 RON anyway and thanked him for the lesson after which, he gave us a lifetime guarantee on the watchband size.  So I was all set.  I had finally figured out the new money and I boldly strode into a little grocery shop on our way to dinner one evening to get myself a Coca-Cola light and some sugar free breath mints... I set it on the counter with a friendly. "Buna seara!" and the young lady behind the counter looked at me and said "cinlei" which was a new word(s) on me - a lazy way of saying "cinci lei" - so it took me a second but then I quickly converted using the New Romanian math... she means 5000 old lei, move the decimal place over to the left and bingo bango bongo - 50 bani! (half a RON).  I dug into my pocket, pulled out a 50 bani coin and handed it to the young lady.  She held it between her thumb and index finger, tilted her head to the side, put her hand on her hip, furrowed her brow and rolled her eyes at me (typical Romanian way of saying - "come on, man").  Then she twisted the screen toward me, stuck her index finger under the total and said again, "cinlei".  You guess it, it was 5 RON.  I pulled out 5 RON note and told her to keep the 50 bani and left the shop feeling dumber than when I had arrived.  Millionaire life was difficult in Romania.

I have to read this again, but yeah it can be confusing when in a foreign country in the middle of a currency rework.

I used to do business with an amplifier guy in Australia back in the 1998-2002 time frame and AUS dollar and USD had big swings

In that time frame.

I still use some of those amps very good gear for my home theater.

[OutOfMemory]

Treasury companies hopefully will step in and kick up the buying volume some. Then if Powell could please give us some brrrr, now that would be grand, thank you.

Powell will give us some brrrr if Trump stops increasing inflation with his stupid tariffs.
Orange-Utan no good.

Sad to say, I don't trust any newbie by default. Especially ones that make a big deal about them "being new." Its like no shit, we can see that already.

Nah, it's not sad to say. It's just sad. (The fact that newbies aren't to be trusted by default)

[d_eddie]

Orange-Utan no good.

Did you think this nickname yourself?

[OutOfMemory]

Orange-Utan no good.

Did you think this nickname yourself?

Yes.

[d_eddie]

Merit-worthy! 

[OutOfMemory]

Merit-worthy! 

Thanks. Honestly, his body shape and face expression built the foundation for this nickname, which just popped out of my head some time ago when reading some "Orange Man" post here, but i think this was the first time i actually typed it out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[blomen]

what i see? bitcoin climbing the stairs.
the price increases by approximately 10-12% with each step it climbs. perhaps this bull market will be different from the others in this regard. we know that price volatility has decreased and market cap has increased. therefore, we may need to be prepared to change our definition of a “bull market.”

if the price continues to climb by two more steps, we could see an ath between 150-155k.

What is your definition of a bull market that is needing to be changed?

We are in a bull market until we are not, right?

We been in a bull market since about November 2022, yet we might not have had realized it until either mid-2023 or perhaps as late as October/November 2023.

Perhaps at some point, we will go back to being in a bear market?  Yet maybe the bear market is skipped this cycle? Is that your definition of a change in the bull market?

Maybe if the BTC price breaks below the 100-WMA?  or even comes within 25% of the 200-WMA those might be signs of a transition from a bull to a bear market?

I doubt that guys here agree on the definition anyhow.  Some guys seem to think something like a 10% correction constitutes a bear market, and sure others how other definitioins that might have both a quantity factor and a time factor.

For me, I tend to think that going from bear to bull and then from bull to bear could end up having errors so that by the time we might recognize that we had been in a bear market, for example, then we might end up transitioning back into a bull market.  I am not clear in my own definitions except to consider that there is both a time and a quantity element so it might not be easy to know which one we are in during a transitionary period or a potential transitionary period.

in fact, a bull market is still a bull market. but when we say “bull,” we may not be thinking of the big, rapid rises that we associate with other times in the market.



as we know, when the process was complete and we looked back, there were weeks and months when the price rose significantly at the end of each cycle, and times when it fell significantly. we didn't need formulas, moving averages, etc. to determine when we were in a bull market. everything was right there.

and if someone said “bull market,” this is the kind of process that would come to mind. no one could have predicted that a bull market would last since 2022, i suppose. that’s the change for me.

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

we know that the regularity of the bitcoin graph will increase, but we may not have considered how this will affect the bull-bear cycles.

[Emikoyumi]

A little interlude while we're waiting for the corn to rise again.

Ever since I was a child, radio has always fascinated me.  I built my first crystal radio kit on my 9th birthday and never looked back.  Being able to pull sounds out of the air without the direct use of electricity was mind-bending at the time.  A few years later, I got myself one of those AM/FM/VHF/UHF/shortwave receivers and looked for stations almost nightly.  I hooked a small speaker through the headphone jack and put it under my pillow so as not to wake anyone else up.

On a good night, I could get KDKA out of Pittsburgh and WBZ out of Boston (and they were quite far away), and I would listen to "Theater of the Mind" before falling asleep.  I was also able to pick up the audio channels from TV stations out of the USA, and early on Saturday mornings, I would listen to Roger Ramjet before getting out of bed to watch the rest on TV.  I spent many wakeful nights listening to Coast to Coast AM, especially when shift work made it impossible to sleep while others in my time zone were sleeping.

I still listen to the radio almost nightly, but now I generally use TuneIn Radio over the internet; the stations come in much clearer.  Sometimes I enjoy tuning into small-town AM stations - it's a refreshing change.  KWON out of Bartlesville still has a community call-in show where people can buy, sell, and trade stuff, and they even give their phone numbers over the air... so cute.

Anyway, the reason I bring this up is that today (August 20th) is National Radio Day in the USA. KDKA in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, was the first station granted a commercial license back in 1920. WBZ got theirs in 1921.

Oh and wrt radio, this is the coolest page on the internet (imo):

https://radio.garden/

It's a world map full of little green dots representing radio stations - click on one to listen. Happy National Radio Day!

Reading your post took me back to my own childhood. radio's has never been just a device it’s been a companion for imagination feelings and memories. That quiet magic of listening under the pillow late at night, catching voices from faraway places, and picturing unknown towns and people from just the sound that’s something only radio can give.the warmth and nostalgia in your words made it feel like I was right there with you, listening too. Even though technology has changed and now the internet puts thousands of stations at our fingertips, there’s still something so alive and refreshing about small-town local stations.
the Radio Garden link is amazing to hard to believe how much life and how many voices are hidden in those little green dots. our story and love for radio made National Radio Day feel truth special