Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I thought about selling some, but then could not decide the "why" portion.
Converting btc to fiat feels a bit silly and I am in no need of a bigger house..at least, not yet.
One observation: the market feels a bit neurotic as far as the mood is concerned.
Maybe too much change (on the market and socially) is occurring too fast and the market has difficulty "digesting" the info properly.

Well, it's obvious - buying back later at a lower price. LFC_Bitcoin is my role model here. Apparently, the guy managed to sell near the top and buy back during bear, increasing his stash considerably.  

Sure, I get the intent...it is the execution of BOTH trades at a correct time that is difficult to achieve.

Many sold at ATH+20-30% in 2017 only for btc to go up another 15X in just a few months.
I sold some back then too after listening to one Vinny Lindham about the presumable crash due to the first fork (all my fault, of course).
I had another small sell in 2020 after we recovered to 10K from $3.8K.
The logic back then: we are surely going into a depression as businesses are closing and unemployment is rising...recovery is just a temporary dead cat bounce, allegedly.

Thankfully, on both occasions I sold a little so it is not relevant in a big picture.

[OutOfMemory]

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.

You should treat a Guest better than that! You know you were wrong to jump on the bandwagon. Don't you think?  

We are not at McDonalds here to obey to the guest. WO Guests are not treated much differently than regulars,  because the latter are guests here too. It's like you stumble into a veteran meeting and shout: "Hey, I like guns n stuff too, I'm one of you, I tell you some stories of mine and you owe me respect!"

I may cite from the 1st message of this thread:

Recommendations
Do: Post TA and news items related to Bitcoin, engage in friendly debate and banter, ignore people who offend or insult you
Don't: Be a drama queen

If you can do this, be welcome and keep doing things this way.
If you can't and continue teaching us - or trying to teach anybody here - how to kiss your poor victimized ass, just GTFO and close the door behind you.

If you have an IQ higher than 90, you can do this.
And it will help your karma, regardless which of both options you may choose.

Guys, i am on a holiday now, i cant post much, because IT is horrible to type on my roadwarrior tablet. I had to tap backspace a multiple times more often than this Text consists of Letters.

What's stopping you from getting a light, cheap, low-power, disposable laptop with full disk encryption and good keyboard for travels? I've "tested" it for the first time this year, and I'm very happy with it.

Which one?
I use such one at home, but for traveling I need a slim, small device capable of presenting media and providing otg storage and editing. Mostly footage from the go-pro. I am reading ebooks,  which is better on a tablet, I even use a pen. I rarely type, and I could add a Bluetooth keyboard,  but the comfortable ones are bulky. If I'm on the go, I try to get everything I need into a combat or traveling backpack. I need flexibility, I don't like to be bound to a suitcase or trolley, like walking a dog.
Oh, and I hate (the sound of) blowing fans and having a hot notebook on my lap, too.

I managed to set up the touchscreen keyboard to behave better, by the way.
It's more acceptable now,  but it still takes too much time to write longer posts, unlike this one.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   912756  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.3315%  (1525 / 1447.81 expected, 77.19 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129699156960680.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 136500642749837 and 136953518056656
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.2440% and +5.5932%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2025 at 4:12 PM  (+0.2039%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 11:11 PM  (in 3d 5h 41m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:12 AM  (in 3d 6h 42m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 59m 34s and 13d 8h 0m 6s

wow a huge amount of gear going online in August big mining is bullish as fuck

And maybe they see what I see.

August was not very disappointing  we hit the ath.

on August 14th 124,457

the lowest number was 107,444 on August 30th

August 1st the lowest number was 112,724

Date   ...................Open............High................   Low................   Close ................Adj Close ........Volume
Sep 01, 2025   108,251.73   109,830.23   107,310.23   108,495.19   108,495.19   64,631,078,912
Aug 31, 2025   108,818.46   109,491.00   108,104.66   108,236.71   108,236.71   47,986,191,770
Aug 30, 2025   108,409.41   108,929.35   107,444.45   108,808.07   108,808.07   51,486,264,208
Aug 29, 2025   112,550.52   112,619.05   107,559.63   108,410.84   108,410.84   77,843,379,644
Aug 28, 2025   111,219.05   113,450.08   110,900.92   112,544.80   112,544.80   58,860,155,962
Aug 27, 2025   111,795.71   112,619.41   110,398.27   111,222.06   111,222.06   62,137,056,409
Aug 26, 2025   110,124.10   112,397.02   108,762.04   111,802.66   111,802.66   69,396,320,317
Aug 25, 2025   113,456.90   113,637.84   109,324.28   110,124.35   110,124.35   85,706,860,190
Aug 24, 2025   115,387.39   115,615.09   111,060.55   113,458.43   113,458.43   73,961,489,632
Aug 23, 2025   116,866.37   116,996.25   114,536.11   115,374.33   115,374.33   55,377,142,586
Aug 22, 2025   112,433.73   117,377.40   111,678.95   116,874.09   116,874.09   82,528,088,240
Aug 21, 2025   114,275.69   114,802.65   111,986.23   112,419.03   112,419.03   57,817,883,700
Aug 20, 2025   112,828.02   114,625.80   112,387.96   114,274.74   114,274.74   67,993,811,526
Aug 19, 2025   116,241.86   116,764.50   112,730.40   112,831.18   112,831.18   71,657,600,353
Aug 18, 2025   117,453.91   117,614.17   114,723.68   116,252.31   116,252.31   72,787,808,090
Aug 17, 2025   117,492.79   118,595.77   117,279.52   117,453.06   117,453.06   45,852,169,525
Aug 16, 2025   117,398.42   117,996.06   117,271.95   117,491.35   117,491.35   48,036,922,378
Aug 15, 2025   118,365.78   119,332.31   116,864.57   117,398.35   117,398.35   68,665,353,159
Aug 14, 2025   123,339.40   124,457.12   117,254.88   118,359.58   118,359.58   104,055,627,395
Aug 13, 2025   120,168.98   123,682.45   118,939.63   123,344.06   123,344.06   90,904,808,795
Aug 12, 2025   118,717.66   120,302.47   118,228.72   120,172.91   120,172.91   72,803,657,984
Aug 11, 2025   119,306.81   122,321.09   118,159.03   118,731.45   118,731.45   90,528,784,177
Aug 10, 2025   116,497.72   119,320.71   116,485.16   119,306.76   119,306.76   64,755,458,694
Aug 09, 2025   116,678.27   117,906.61   116,363.84   116,500.36   116,500.36   54,004,312,429
Aug 08, 2025   117,505.50   117,689.20   115,917.46   116,688.73   116,688.73   59,713,005,166
Aug 07, 2025   115,030.05   117,676.91   114,279.71   117,496.90   117,496.90   64,051,649,681
Aug 06, 2025   114,140.91   115,737.84   113,372.25   115,028.00   115,028.00   56,379,133,510
Aug 05, 2025   115,072.19   115,117.44   112,701.11   114,141.45   114,141.45   61,039,182,286
Aug 04, 2025   114,223.92   115,729.47   114,130.41   115,071.88   115,071.88   35,783,028,986
Aug 03, 2025   112,525.80   114,747.42   111,943.80   114,217.67   114,217.67   48,099,615,826
Aug 02, 2025   113,320.39   114,021.60   112,005.77   112,526.91   112,526.91   56,870,866,000
Aug 01, 2025   115,738.95   116,060.77   112,724.45   113,320.09   113,320.09   91,294,530,181
July 31, 2025   117,833.63   118,919.98   115,505.22   115,758.20   115,758.20   69,370,346,018


the numbers above are fairly steady no huge dips.

Why be disappointed .

what has happened is the market moved forward for the third month in a row over 100k

if you go to yahoo and look from May 9th Until Sept 1 we have been above 100k and under 125k for all but a tiny bit of time on

June 23 and June 24 but on those 2 days we close above 100k and averaged over 100k

So that Time frame is

June 30
July 31
AUG 31
Sept   1
May  23

115 days closing and averaging above 100k

a very tight slot of 100k to 124.6k

no one should be dissatisfied.

As of today.

I added more than .16 btc to my stack during this time.

Note all charts are from yahoo finance

[fillippone]

wow a huge amount of gear going online in August big mining is bullish as fuck

Same old story: Antminer announced their new beast, but they are not shipping. Suddenly, difficulty rises, and when you get your miner, it’s already worth 30% less.

[goldkingcoiner]

I don't know why but I suddenly got a hankering for a banana split but I'm going to make one instead of going to DQ.

 I bought Chapman's French Vanilla 2 liter box for $3.99 and the bananas for $1.69 (in this case 9 but it's 3lbs of bananas - obviously the size of the bananas determines the number you get).  I'm going to use 150ml of the ice cream and 1 banana.   I don't use a lot of fancy toppings, usually cocoa powder and strawberries but I'm splurging today with some homemade dulceata visine (sour cherry preserves) from a friend in Romania as well.  Sadly, I didn't have any pineapple to crush.

 ice cream - $0.29925
 banana    - $0.18778
-------------------------
 sub-total  ~ $0.49

Not too bad considering the historic price of a banana split.  Here's where it goes pear-shaped: Fresh strawberries are $8.99 for 2lbs and the cocoa powder (my wife only buys the organic stuff) was $27.95 for a pound.  I'm going to calculate in grams because it's easier on my brain - I cut up 50g of strawberries and sprinkled 7g of cocoa powder on the whole thing.

  7g of cocoa power - $0.4309 (almost the same cost as the base ingredients!)
50g of strawberries - $0.495 (more than the cost of the base ingredients)

 I put a couple of teaspoons of the sour cherry preserves - you don't need much as they pack a lot of flavour - but since I didn't buy it, I can't add the exact cost.  

 What banana split would be complete without the whipped cream?  I just buy the can and leave it in the fridge it was $5.49 for 400g - it says the serving size is 15g but who uses that piddly amount?  Let's say 40g (to make it really easy)

 40g of whipped cream - $0.549

 This banana split was quite large - it overfilled a cereal bowl and was probably enough for 2 (that didn't stop me from finishing it off though)

Ingredient	Cost
Ice Cream	$0.29925
Banana	$0.18778
Strawberries (50g)	$0.495
Cocoa Powder (7g)	$0.4309
Whipped Cream (40g)	$0.549
Total	$1.96183

 I was surprised to learn that the cost of each individual topping was worth nearly as much or more than the basic ingredients combined.  Those toppings are a luxury!  If bitcoin is going to dip much lower, I'm going to have to go with just the ice cream and bananas and forgo all the toppings. Ouch! I just checked BTC again... maybe I'll just have the bananas.

The whipped cream does nothing. It's basically decoration. So take it out. And if you want a traditional banana split then take out the strawberries and instead of cocoa powder you use chocolate syrup, which is $2.50 usd for 24 oz, which is 680.389g, so the same 7g is only $0.0257205804326642553010116271721.

Total would be ~ $0,52 (rounded up - which gives you wiggle room for a gram or so of extra chocolate syrup).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

wow a huge amount of gear going online in August big mining is bullish as fuck

Same old story: Antminer announced their new beast, but they are not shipping. Suddenly, difficulty rises, and when you get your miner, it’s already worth 30% less.

yeah but they are doing something a bit different.

I have only s21xp which do just under 13 watts in cool weather.

the new s23 claims 11.5 watts  and 1.5/13=0.115  a 11.5% improvement

these are the air cooled models this improvement is the worst they have ever offered.

last time the s19xp did 21  watts in good weather
and the s21 claimed 17.5

so 3.5/21= a 16.7% improvement

The only reason they can list a really nice number is if you get a liquid cooled model (9.5 watts) and they are neglecting to explain

new transformer needed
new pdu needed
new external radiator needed.

Cost is almost 2x that of the 21xp and it will take 2 to 3 years to pay off the infrastructure needed to get the 9.5 watts claimed.

if you stick with air cooled you do not need to change anything at all

I am thinking this is the worst new generation of miners they ever made.

Should be interesting to see if they will need to drop the price a ton on the s23 air cooled to sell it.




oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

[fillippone]

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

[Findingnemo]

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

I still got something left from W.W’s stash… but it’s mostly in blue not green.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

..

You’re not cygan.. are you?

~

I would be 83 and even if a btc is 10 or 20 million

I would still be 83.

I can honestly say i am in okay shape at 68.

So the 1957 weren’t just made up..

[cAPSLOCK]

Do you think that our odds for further down in September might be lessened if August had started out around $113k and ended slightly below $108k (something in the ballpark of a 4.5% drop)?  

Theoretically it could be easier for September to end up from $108k, even though sure we have right around 14% in total to make up for if we want to get to another ATH, to the extent another ATH is still in the cards for September, October or perhaps later this calendar year (referring to 2025)?, but yeah we should not necessarily start counting our chickens too prematurely.

AKA I have no idea about the shorter term.

( I wrote a whole lot about stable coins and the USD, but meh... )

[JayJuanGee]

we only had a 13% correction from the ATH... that's actually quite bullish imo

quiet I was able to get 1000's of dollars during august dips.
We do not want people catching on.

Maybe I will finally be prepared for up .
{hint not yet}
June      0.022895
July       0.010436
August   0.023510
Total dip  0.056841

and dca mining 92x.00103=0.0948
so I added 0.151641 in 90 days.
also some small ladder buys on kraken

0.00455  added on kraken
So just about 0.156 in 92 days
been a good summer.

Part of your calculation problem seems to be that your "ins" are not without encumbrances, so the mined coins are not pure profits.  They have capital costs and electricity costs.  

It is also different if you are bringing new money into bitcoin to build it and to keep it in bitcoin for a relatively long period versus if you ar just moving money around from one place to another, so for example if you had bought copper or whatever in 2022 then you sold the copper to buy bitcoin in 2025 (your recent buys), those kind of numbers are not without their baggage.  

I hate to be a party poop, and maybe this time your BTC hold period might have more meaning, even though I doubt it.  I doubt that you would still have much if any of those 0.156-ish BTC if BTC prices were to reach and/or exceed $200k-ish.

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.

You should treat a Guest better than that! You know you were wrong to jump on the bandwagon. Don't you think?  

You are not a guest.  You are a participant in the conversation who went overboard in his vagueness and then in his proofs.

Surely there wee guys who were largely sympathetic to your situation until you continue to dig yourself in deeper - which you seem to be inclined to continue to dig rather than apologizing for your problematic posts and your seemingly ongoing desires to battle and to proclaim yourself as some kind of a supposed victim.

Which part are you wanting to continue to battle about?  My behaviors?  I am a meanie sometimes.  What more do you want to get out of me?  What do you want to get from this thread?  Weren't you throwing out insults, describing yourself as a victim and proclaiming that several of us (including yours truly) was out to get you?  Several of us, including this here guy, have already responded to those accusations.  It seems that several guys have even been giving you several suggestions regarding how to proceed, but you seem to have some challenges in your own abilities to move on or even to fix yourself from aspects of your posting style.

None of us have even negatively (or neutrally) marked your trust yet, so you might count your blessings while they still exist, even though some members had already mentioned it or at least hinted at such a possible outcome.

So maybe the more important and/or imminent question might not be so much about me, yet it might concern how you might be able to save yourself from yourself.

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.

You should treat a Guest better than that! You know you were wrong to jump on the bandwagon. Don't you think?  

Last comment I am going to make on this: I have never looked into a person's post history. But now that I did, I don't know why I decided to even tried to white knight for him. All previous advice still stands; I just feel like I was yelling at the wall...

Usually the ones who get themselves in trouble are stubborn like that.

Again, off topic... But with the current price action, does anyone know how long the M2 correlation theory will last? As the goalposts seem to keep moving back and forth. I am not even sure of an "exit plan" anymore, as I have only sold enough to cover my very basic lifestyle. But the plan always was when the time comes, try to shave off some to divest and hedge some of my gains. That being said, everything else looks so much worse in comparison... I learned my lesson trading alts in 2017 (still swallowing that pill), so I'm not looking to do that again (fool me once...you know).

You are trying to catch the top?  That can be problematic.

Of course, I consider price based sustainable withdrawal to likely be able to kick in prior to time-based sustainable withdrawal (I talk about both strategies in my sustainable withdrawal thread), yet you still need to be in overaccumulation status for either of them, so then if you start to sell, you are not necessarily selling with expectations to buy back cheaper... since that would be trading/gambling rather than investing..

So if you have not quite made it to overaccumulation status yet, then you have more dilemmas to ride matters out.. once more cycle or whatever.

That being said, we're getting to the point where my supposed.63 bitcoin is borderline life-changing money, so why not shave off a bit to lock in profits?

Nothing wrong with that.  Why should you feel bad if you have some kind of a tier in which you shave off something in the ballpark of 10% every time the price doubles, and if you cannot wait for doubling intervals then just shave off 1% every 10% rise or some other variation?

If you have enough or more than enough BTC then you should be able to accomplish price based sustainable withdrawal.

If you con't want to wait for the price, then just do time based sustainable withdrawals, so that if you were to happen to have 0.63 BTC right now, then you could shave off right around $3,279 per year or $273 per month with right around 7% per year increases.  That would be time based sustainable withdrawal.

But to what the dollar looks so bad? Also, buying more strategy seems counterproductive... I feel I have finally gotten to a point that if I sell and can never buy back cheaper, I would be happy (we are way past Adams's 32k #). But then what do you do with all this dirty fiat??? Watch it lose value???

You don't need to sell with purposes of buying back cheaper, especially with sustainable withdrawal, and if you sell so much that you are sitting on a bunch of extra cash, then there might be something wrong with your selling formula.

You are not really describing anything that suggests any rush to sell except that you might not want to go through a long and extended dip, but you don't think that it will dip from here but instead dip in the future.  So then if it dips in the future you want to have some cash to either buy back or just be able to spend.

I mean, it's a great dilemma to have, but one I really need to figure out sooner than later. Or cry about another full bear, which I am not sure if I can handle.

Now you are sounding overinvested.

Why can't you just figure out some kinds of price points that you are willing to sell some but not necessarily big chunks, so then it will make you feel better for having had sold some... going back to the selling 10% for every doubling formula.

It's been so long that it kind of doesn't even seem real anymore... But it definitely has real-world consequences.

You mean that you did most of your accumulating years back, so then you have not done anything for a while, neither bought nor sold.

I tend to think that if guys go through accumulation, then there might be a period of maintenance where they are not really selling and they are not really buying, so then once they go through the maintenance stage, then they can start to sell small amounts here and there and when you need it, so if you are not selling in really large chunks, you should be able to sell forever in such a system.  Part of the issue is crossing the chasm of getting to the point of having enough and then clearly being in a place of having more than enough.. which once you have crossed the chasm, then you should be able to sell within the overaccumulation status without falling back below being in such overaccumulation status.
 

Again, it's a wonderful position to be in, and I am grateful for it, but it definitely doesn't make anything any easier. I try to live life normally, pretending it's not there, but at some point we all have to live a little, right? I feel like this month is going to be the hardest yet...
 All that being said, I fully believe that the Number goes up forever (at least longer than I will be alive). This really is one of the only things I like about our current timeline we all have to endure!!!
K

Not everyone is in the same status, since some guys seem to have already crossed over.. yet of course, no one really wants to sell a bunch right before it goes up and yeah we would not want to sell at the bottom either, even if we have enough and/or more than enough.. which yeah, maybe never goes away when we are living within one of the greatest wealth transfers known to mankind and we would rather be on the receiving end of that rather than being on the giving side of that great transfer.

[bitmover]

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K

retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young

Strangely, I never wanted to quit any job..hey, maybe I should make them fire me so I can retire
That said, some people take relative idleness in spades...going to gym daily, picking up new hobbies, volunteering, etc.
Somehow, for me, a regular job gives more structure to a daily life.

I think it depends on what kind of job you have and how much time you spend there.

I love to practice sports and do outdoor activities, for example. My job forces me to be stuck in there from 9 AM to 18PM, so I basically can't do anything else. My job literally destroys my routine.

However, since 2020, I am allowed to work from home 2-3 times a week, which makes things way better. This is why I haven't quit it yet.

[Churchillvv]

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

Not even clothes left!

[philipma1957]

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

Yeah

I have fiat to pay my mining power bill until next august

and I have 7000 extra cash.

plus literally tons of copper to sell

and kilos of silver to sell.

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=5556792.0

I believe my price for those silver coins is the best price in the entire world

In fact I am fairly certain it is well under the ebay price.  Maybe 8000 plus taxes say 8500 is the true price on ebay

Well under the cull price 2800+1790+2910 =7500 on ebay for culls mine are better than culls

and well under the melt price.  7350 for melt




My issue is pacing my buys more than anything else.


and by the way 106k dec 2024 to 109k sept 2025

with a dip to 74 k  with a pair of rises to 120k

look really fucking sideways to me. JJG

[xhomerx10]

Aurora update.

 Visuals in Norway but most of Europe saw nothing so far.  
The peak is estimated to be 0600 to 0900 GMT (sun will obscure viewing in Europe) but good news for North America.  West coast viewers should be able to see the auroras between 11pm and 2am PT (GMT -8) obvisouly a bit later in central time zones and in the east... 2am to 5am
New Zealand that would be 6pm to 9pm (with sunset happening between 6pm and 7pm you could be in for a show as well)
Good luck

[xhomerx10]

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

Not even clothes left!

 Based on that skin tone, I would say you have sunscreen you can sell to buy more coin!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com