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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26919088 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JimboToronto
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September 02, 2025, 01:26:09 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

But then what do you do with all this dirty fiat??? Watch it lose value??? I mean, it's a great dilemma to have, but one I really need to figure out sooner than later.

Convert it to Bitcoin.

I am lucky enough to have pulled that plug in 2017. I left my "work"/"career" and never looked back!!! decades before I was told that I was possibly going to be able to.

Congratulations and welcome to the free world.

I've been job-free since 1976. It's one of the best decisions I've made in my life. Thank you Timothy Leary. Turn on, tune in, drop out.
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September 02, 2025, 01:26:41 AM
Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1)

[edited out]
I have a sell ladder all the way to 303k
but it is not much of the hodl.

I only do the sell ladder to say I sold some at or near the top.
But I am still not where I want to be. In terms of stack

I am not opposed to any of that, yet I suspect that the ONLY reason that you only have sell ladders up to $303k is because you are likely to be out or nearly out of bitcoin by that time, if we were to get there.. . let's say, no more than 25% of your current stash would still be remaining, when you probably should have something close to or more than 50% of your current stash...

But hey.. you are doing better than I had imagined (in my head) what you were doing.

For myself.. yeah I could sell 5% to 10% and that would be good.. even though like I said, I am only set up to sell about 3% up to $500k-ish.. . which is maybe a bit extreme in the other direction... the non-selling direction.. but it still feels good to have those orders set up in order to plan to sell 3%-ish between here and $500k if we were to get there.. and $500k would really only be right around 4.5x from her ($4109k).. That is not totally outrageous for a pump as long as maybe it were to take a whole 9-ish months (baby germination time) to play out.

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K

I am having a bit of a dilemma also in regards to figuring out things to spend money on, yet, I still don't see why you are considering it to be such a great dilemma to just figure out some sell formula and then to otherwise just let it ride (meaning the bitcoin).

I am not totally poo-pooing you, since almost every cycle, after the price drops 50% to 70% or more, I start to ponder that I could have had sold a bit more, and so I end up making some adjustments, but I never end up adjusting it as high as I probably should.. . yet I also try to own whatever choice that I make, even if no matter which way the price goes, there can be feelings of "I should have done "y" instead of "x"  "X" makes no sense in retrospect, even though it made sense when I chose "X."  Right now, "y" is seeming like it would have had been a good thing to do.

From my perspective, it get the sense that you will feel a lot better once you figure out some kind of a selling on the way up formula, and let's say that you currently have 10 BTC (I know you said 0.63.. yet 10 is a easier number to fantasize about, and it is a somewhat round number too)..

You figure out some price point that you call your first doubling.. whether that is $150k or $200k or whatever (and don't pick exactly a round number, and let's say that your  first one is at $200k.., so you shave off 10%, which would be 1 BTC.

Let's say that you don't like the idea of shaving off a whole 1 BTC at one price point like that, so instead, you set yourself up to sell 0.1 BTC at each of $10k price points between $160k, $170k, $180k, $190k, $200k, $210k, $220k, $230k, $240k and $250k... again.. not placing your sell orders exactly at round numbers and you could pick smaller amounts and start doing such a thing right now at current prices.. perhaps having your first sell at $114k and the next one at $118k and the next one at $123k etc etc.. whatever numbers and amounts you want within a kind of formula, and if you down the road you start to believe that maybe you are accumulating way too many dollars from all of your sales, then you can reduce your sales amounts (quantities of BTC) and/or increments between each of your sell points.

If you don't like 10% sales for every doubling of the BTC price, then pick 5% or 3% or whatever makes you feel MOAR better. 

It is harder to think about the whole matter and figure it out some plan, but once you do figure it out and put such plan into place, you will likely start to feel better, and maybe every once in a while you will have to adjust your plan to make your sell orders bigger or smaller because sometimes you might change in your feelings, and  if you accidentally sell too much then just buy those BTC back at some price that is comfortable for you.. and if they don't end up buying back then you just have that money sitting there waiting to buy them back and maybe at some point, you come across some reason to spend that money... just for shits and giggles you decide to splurge on some consumption good or some other investment or something that fancies your then interests. 

If you don't want to be bothered with $5K increments or even $10k increments, then set your increments for $20k increments or whatever brings you more comfort, and if your sell orders don't end up filling, then you can build that into your expectations of a set of events that might end up playing out.

Sometimes I have sell order that I put into place several years earlier, and then don't fill.. My sell orders from 2017 initially went up to $1k and then I had to increase them to $2k and then $5k and then finally, they had ended up going all the way up to something like $35k, but they did not get filled for several years.. and then in 2021 some of my sell orders ended up going up to $150k, even though some exchanges did not let me set orders higher than $100k (cough , cough  cough Binance), but then little by little they started to allow higher and higher sell orders to be established (as limited orders).

I used to keep more money on exchanges, but you can imagine if I really have sell orders up to $500k-ish, I ONLY have enough money to cover my orders on the exchanges, which some folks will even think it is better to do the BTC sales manually rather than setting up sell orders in advance... which surely is reasonable. and sometimes I do purposefully remove any of my additional BTC from exchanges so that I am trying to limit that kind of exposure... even though there can be some security precautions that can be taken... and anyone who maintains accounts with exchanges realizes that some exchanges have better security systems in place than others, and I had even had some of my accounts set up in a kind of special status, but sometimes the exchanges will also pull accounts and so there can be inconveniences to have to change accounts since they might not even say why they are doing it, but they tend to give time to withdraw, but sometimes the notices are not very clear (or received).

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young

I think that many of us have likely come accross statistics that most people  do not save and/or invest, so if you get people investing anywhere in the ballpark of 10% of their income, then it still is going to take them 10 years to have had invested 1 years worth of income into their investment.

My frequent point is that if you can invest more aggressively that 10%, even as great as 25% or greater, then with a 25% investment rate, you get 1 year's of your income into your investment in 4 years.  The more you get into your investment (in bitcoin in this case), then the more that amount invested can work for you, which surely it still can take some time to really get it to a point that you can start to live off of it without depleting the principe.  Accordingly, bitcoin seems to be amongst the best of places to get to such a status that you can start to withdraw from it, whether at your income rate or at some higher or lower rate.

It is almost too good to be true.. like "we" are living in a dream... which yeah, sometimes we don't necessarily want to buy anything too flashy to draw attention to ourselves, yet at the same time, it could become quite tempting.

 I am lucky enough to have pulled that plug in 2017. I left my "work"/"career" and never looked back!!! decades before I was told that I was possibly going to be able to... Again, I am not greedy, and the .63 I may or may not have will cover me till I am long ded!

That surely is a sign of overaccumulatoin status if you have figured out the amount that you have and then you figured out your expenses, so you are already able to get started.

i think that many of us continue to either build our bitcoin or to just let it ride based on our having other income sources, and I have been using bitcoin to supplement since about 2016, yet whatever supplement I had been taking is way less than what I need to live since I draw (and spend) from inferior sources before spending from bitcoin.  There can also be ways of drawing from other funds and/or creating other income sources, and I did that too.. so that the various income sources add up and they end up causing me to not to have to spend from my bitcoin since I spend from those first... Yet I do think that I have been trying to spend more and more from my bitcoin and/or to exhaust from my other sources so that I can spend from my bitcoin.  There still are needs to figure out ways to spend within my own sensibilities and my own comfort level..

The real mind fook is that even though percentage-wise it's just more of the same, doing nothing has inevitably been the best thing I could have done... So why is it so hard to just continue to follow the course??? The corn is still the same; I have actually decreased it over the years... but what that corn can do is beyond my wildest dreams... I can't begin to comprehend what it will be able to do in another 10...
CCMF
K

I sometimes have to look back at old records to try to figure out the extent to which my BTC stash is depleting, and surely I had past projections of where I would be at certain times and/or upon the bitcoin reaching certain prices, and there are ways that the stash has shrunk but also ways in which it has not shrunk as much as the earlier projections had anticipated that it would be at certain price points. There can be some gamification in looking at some of the matters.. because in some sense, even for me, I had some projections that would go several times higher than the current price, yet the further out the numbers, the more of a ballpark figure it seemed to have had been, but it is surprising that real world numbers seem to be doing better than the projections, which maybe a reflection of my own attempts to not overly promise myself... it comes from the underpromise and overdeliver framework so that any of us who project in conservative ways, we are likely going to end up in a better place than we had projected ourself to get to.
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September 02, 2025, 01:28:18 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
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September 02, 2025, 02:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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September 02, 2025, 02:29:51 AM

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young
Strangely, I never wanted to quit any job..hey, maybe I should make them fire me so I can retire Smiley
That said, some people take relative idleness in spades...going to gym daily, picking up new hobbies, volunteering, etc.
Somehow, for me, a regular job gives more structure to a daily life.

Part of the "problem" in bitcoin, if we can call it a "problem" is that we ended up winning the lottery, especially if we errored on the side of accumulating and holding... even the whimpy ones still ended up winning the lottery as long as they did not sell.

I don't completely disagree with you, since there can be some jobs that create a considerable amount of satisfaction and even self-direction and/or a sense of belonging on a team - especially if you agree with the missions of the team and you feel that you are being treated fairly.

At the same time, winning the lottery does have to change the variables, especially if you had put in enough that you can pretty much replace all of your income, perhaps in multiples or even magnitudes.

We should not be generalizing about any job having possible issues in regards to causing us to believe that our energies could be focused elsewhere.

Doesn't that sound a bit strange to you?  You are selling while are still accumulating.
And, sure maybe that will work for you since you are planning to sell with an expectation of being able to buy back more with the same money that you received from selling it.

Personally, I don't consider that to be a good strategy for guys who are still accumulating, even though I understand that guys do it and attempt to do it, and some of them are able to do o.k. with such a strategy and others would have had been better off to just stay focused on BTC accumulation.

You are taking chances, but it is possible that it could work out for you.  Perhaps.

Yet at the same time, if a guy is still in BTC accumulation phase, he is more assured to continue to increase his stash if he just stays focused on buying and perhaps to find money from other places when he wants to buy things.. . but yeah opinions will differ regarding these kinds of matters regarding the hows and the amounts to play with when trying to catch waves.
My humble submission is that in life we have necessities and it's up to you whether to full fill these necessities and live a good life or keep saving money. I need money for few things and I am glad that I have Bitcoin who helped me out. I told you I bought a new car just because my previous car was 16 years old and it's time to replace it. I recently installed solar system in my house and now I don't pay any electricity bill, my kids sleep in AC and don't have to worry about the electricity bill.

I can go for hodling but for that I have to make a compromise on these things.

I am not proclaiming that you should not increase your standard of living - because for sure it can make sense to increase our standard of living as our wealth is going up.  I just question that if you are concededly in your BTC accumulation phase, it is hard for me to make out how it can be financially prudent to sell out of one hand and buy with the other... but yeah, apparently, you have figure out a way to make it work and to balance your situation...

So yeah, you can run the numbers yourself and see that you are both improving your standard of living but you are also drawing from your BTC and causing it to not compound upon itself and also causing the stash that you build to be way smaller than what it otherwise would have been, even though you are increasing your standard of living along the way.

We have a lot of examples of folks who did all kinds of amazing things with their bitcoin over the years, and for sure the longer that time runs, the greater the measured differences, and sure, it could be that you did the thing that was best for you and for your family.. That is what you are supposed to do... yet there are all kinds of people who spent 100s of bitcoin on houses in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and these days their houses might have gone from $300k to $1.2 million (2x to 5x appreciation in price), but the bitcoin that they used (or could have had bought) went up 100x or more.  They still feel good about what they did.

Similar is true if you bought a car and solar panels and various matters... and yeah it is up to you to do the calculations, and sure, it could well be the case that you had no other options, except to use your bitcoin.

Your timeline is not as long, and sure in some ways I have been warming up to the idea of overinvesting into bitcoin and then using some of the profits from the overinvestment as a way to prematurely shave off some profits.

In the end, you are the one who has the numbers and were able to weigh your options whether it was the right way to do it or not.. but yeah, maybe it ended up working out for you that you put a certain extra into bitcoin and cashed out at various points along the way in order to pay for expenses and/or needs while you continue to accumulate bitcoin... like you caught one of the waves and you did not really have any other options available.

It also might be too close in time for you to do a real comparative analysis in regards to options that you had available versus the option that you took and the consequences that were available.

Even with myself there have been times where I did not really realize the impact of what I did until much further down the road... .

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
Go and get married and that's it. You're done. Cheesy

Permanent Bear market.
NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO THANKYOU!!!!

It is your duty.

Sometimes there is value in "sharing."  Don't shirk your duties, expecially now that you know that you are in overaccumulation status and you have the dilemma of making sure that you spend enough.


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
124.5 to 109.2

is -12.289%
so do we go up say 109.2 to  136.04%$136.04
that would be +12.289% of the ATH

You gotta zoom out a bit, Phil.

A lot of this is just short-term noise.

Quite likely we are going much further than $136.04, and I doubt that there is any kind of exact pattern even if we might be able to see a pattern when we look in retrospect... .. and i don't even see much value in figuring out the size of various waves that may or may not come.. yeah, we likely have good ideas that up is not over, yet, and we also have ideas that up does not tend to happen without downs, even though historically we have had some periods of ups without downs... yet we cannot count on it, so why try to act like we can figure it  out, rather than just going with the flow.. we are still largely bouncing around at the top of the range since early May (ie top 100 days). and largely continuing to push higher numbers.

I thought about selling some, but then could not decide the "why" portion.
Converting btc to fiat feels a bit silly and I am in no need of a bigger house..at least, not yet.
One observation: the market feels a bit neurotic as far as the mood is concerned.
Maybe too much change (on the market and socially) is occurring too fast and the market has difficulty "digesting" the info properly.
Well, it's obvious - buying back later at a lower price. LFC_Bitcoin is my role model here. Apparently, the guy managed to sell near the top and buy back during bear, increasing his stash considerably.  Cool
Sure, I get the intent...it is the execution of BOTH trades at a correct time that is difficult to achieve.

Many sold at ATH+20-30% in 2017 only for btc to go up another 15X in just a few months.
I sold some back then too after listening to one Vinny Lindham about the presumable crash due to the first fork (all my fault, of course).
I had another small sell in 2020 after we recovered to 10K from $3.8K.
The logic back then: we are surely going into a depression as businesses are closing and unemployment is rising...recovery is just a temporary dead cat bounce, allegedly.

Thankfully, on both occasions I sold a little so it is not relevant in a big picture.

Those are some pretty painful disclosures Biodom... and surely sometimes the sell and buy back later ends up working, and it usually is not pretty.. Even LFC's situation in 2021/2022 is far from text book perfect, since LFC sold somewhere in the mid $50ks when it was going down, but it was not clearly going down because it was bouncing around his sales price for a while, so that we could call him names for a while, before it finally crashed down and he ended up being correct.

I thought about selling some, but then could not decide the "why" portion.
Converting btc to fiat feels a bit silly and I am in no need of a bigger house..at least, not yet.
One observation: the market feels a bit neurotic as far as the mood is concerned.
Maybe too much change (on the market and socially) is occurring too fast and the market has difficulty "digesting" the info properly.

Well, it's obvious - buying back later at a lower price. LFC_Bitcoin is my role model here. Apparently, the guy managed to sell near the top and buy back during bear, increasing his stash considerably.  Cool

I doubt LFC's buy back was the greatest either, and he made some purchases with the money, so yeah maybe he bought most of the BTC back in the $20ks and he might have still had some cash for buying some BTC below $20k too...

He might be able and/or willing to give some further details.. yet I doubt that the details are really pretty even though it did seem to work out fairly well. 

Yet LFC might not want to say anymore than he already said..  There have been some of us who have also had some lucky plays, yet there are ONLY so many details that we are ready to give and./or repeat to the extent that we might have had already given some of the details (or at least as many as we want to give within this context - even though sometimes we can have learning experiences too. .. which might be one of the reasons that it would be nice to get mindrust to come back  to the thread and reflect upon his March 2020 situation again and the fall out, too, even though mindrust seems to have become a bit more strident in recent times).
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September 02, 2025, 02:40:07 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

First off, thanks, Jay. I really appreciate you breaking it down like that...

My situation is a bit different than most. I have not bought any corn since before this account was created. I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus. I was also the product of a broken home and severe drug addictions. Statistically speaking, I should be under a bridge sucking dick for crack (a bad thing, as I am not into the peen). I was on my own at 14 and had to figure out how to pretend to be an adult and get all the things that adults did as a minor done.

 How I am not dead or in jail has always been a mystery to me. That being said, I saw and was a part of some of the very first real-world use cases of these cornz and I saw with my own 2 eyes that this magic internet money only used by illicit chemical vendors was in fact a complete replacement of almost everything I saw wrong with the current debt-driven system. I was lucky enough to live in a city where they had a pretty big (at the time) conference about BTC and was orangepilled early. And the more I looked into it the more I realized that this was the way out for me.

 I still remember sending in the postal money order to a stranger in another state and receiving my first cornz at a bit of a premium over spot. I was new and needed to at least get in on the game, so I waited patiently for the email with directions on how to claim my new purchase at 3.17 USD, I believe. I still have my alpaca socks!!! I was irresponsible, and I spent so much it almost makes me sick, but if we did not back in the day, we would not be where we are now. Never did I think we would actually get here.

 I don't consider myself rich in the sense of being some super multi-millionaire. I am not greedy. The one thing, though, none of us can buy is time... it's priceless. We can buy everything else... so in that regard, I don't regret any of the time I was able to harvest by selling a bit of these cornz. That being said, I do think I have set myself up to be able to get the most out of every day, hour, minute, or second I have left on this crazy place we call earth! It has been a reverse midlife crisis for me!

 As far as being overinvested... that's just it. I don't believe that is a term that works in my scenario, as I have been 100% all in for over a decade. I haven't been able to buy more, as I effectively was able to come up with a plan that, in my mind, could not rust away. I have no other income; I live very modestly on what I have, and it has grown to more than I think I will ever need. That's just it, as it keeps exponentially growing in fiat terms. There's no reason to get off this train till I find myself a rocket!

 I just don't think there is anything else I could diversify into that would not make me regret it, as every single other thing I have tried has been a failure when you measure it in BTC not dollars! I don't want children. I believe the world is a shitehole currently. and it's going to get worse. But we all have to play the hand we were dealt.

Again I am not complaining.
K  

  
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September 02, 2025, 03:01:15 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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September 02, 2025, 03:05:26 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7)

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.
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September 02, 2025, 03:18:26 AM

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.

how often did we do from dec to sept in a 106k to 110k slot

1 time bro just this time.

the dynamics for a four year cycle are shot to hell.

silver mooning

copper mooning

btc flat for 10 months basically in the ATH range never happen.

tell me that in 2013/2014 we did 10 months in a 1000-1300 slot nope
tell me that in 2017/18 we did 10 months in a 18-19.5k slot nope
tell me that in 2021/22 we did 10 months in a 58-69k slot nope


so fuck that four year cycle shit.

we grind along and peak way slower maybe Jan of 2027
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September 02, 2025, 03:28:27 AM
Last edit: September 02, 2025, 03:43:00 AM by Richy_T
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K

There are the obvious financial options that are the usual choices and probably smart to at least venture into a little (though when considering such, I get into a similar dilemma as yourself. But still, I aim to at least make a beginning by the end of the year). More interestingly, having some backing often gives you options for improving things with your employment and income situations. If a company is paying you to do X, if you can find a way to do X for yourself, that can possibly be 3x the income for the same work with potentially much more flexibility. As a word of caution though, I have tried this and found that I was not very good at the business side of things (I often say now that having a good mentor would have probably been worth more than all my university experience).



Strangely, I never wanted to quit any job..hey, maybe I should make them fire me so I can retire Smiley

I always loved the work, hated the corporate bullshit. My favorite job was 100% flexible but was too far and sadly, didn't pay enough at the time.
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September 02, 2025, 03:54:23 AM

I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus.

A hustle will always be better than being told what to do.
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Nice Aurora in Greenland - Kulusuk Airport: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlnqZxsAXOU

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September 02, 2025, 06:28:27 AM

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again
Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

Philip never saw a fiat that he doesn't like.

In other words, he never runs out of fiat.

That's part of his issue.

He keeps like a year's worth of cash, just for shits and giggles, even though he also claims to still be in his accumulation phase (or that he doesn't have enough BTC).

Do you think that our odds for further down in September might be lessened if August had started out around $113k and ended slightly below $108k (something in the ballpark of a 4.5% drop)?  
Theoretically it could be easier for September to end up from $108k, even though sure we have right around 14% in total to make up for if we want to get to another ATH, to the extent another ATH is still in the cards for September, October or perhaps later this calendar year (referring to 2025)?, but yeah we should not necessarily start counting our chickens too prematurely.

AKA I have no idea about the shorter term.

( I wrote a whole lot about stable coins and the USD, but meh... )

Sure there could be a question whether we test $100k again or we test ATH.  Which one comes first?

Regarding stable coins and USD.. you are right not really a great topic even though this thread is about the BTC/USD pair...

oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again
Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?
Yeah
I have fiat to pay my mining power bill until next august

and I have 7000 extra cash.

I am not sure if you need cash for 12 months.. but yeah that is up to you.

And, yeah there can be different specific reasons to keep certain kinds of cash and/or to dedicate it for certain kinds of things.

yet at the same time, if there is cash that is coming in, then there can be best case and worse case with whatever cash is coming in... and yeah worse case is usually zero, but most of us are not going to operate like that.. so we have a base case a worser case and a better case.. and we try to account for all or any of them while at the same time perhaps having most of our preparations in a kind of base case that is somewhat reasonable and not extreme and we might be able to draw from certain sources, .. so maybe we have a month or two in physical cash, and we might have a month or two spread across various kinds of bank accounts and then we might have a month or two in various other relatively liquid forms... so if any of our areas get depleted, then we will pay more attention to that area and perhaps try to replenish it or to try to prevent further loss in that area..  We also might have some other funds that are less liquid and perhaps more volatile and we might also have various kinds of lines of credit that we can draw upon... some more preferable than others.. and yeah if our income and/or our expenses are very unstable, then we likely have to hold more reserve/backup funds... but if our income/expenses are fairly steady then we would not need to keep so much. 3- 6 months in various forms.. 

My issue is pacing my buys more than anything else.
and by the way 106k dec 2024 to 109k sept 2025

with a dip to 74 k  with a pair of rises to 120k
look really fucking sideways to me. JJG

Are you trying to say that you told me so? 

Sure we have largely been bouncing around the top for a decently long period of time since the trump election results in early November, ground our way into top prices at various points, and then got a correction down to $74k (like nearly 30-ish%), like you said and then grinding our way back up (so far $124k). with  a so far current correction of 14%.. and you can call it sideways if you like..

I find it a bit interesting that we have been in the top 100 for nearly 4 months, so that is a bit of a grinding up rather than a flat.. but sure.. if you want to call it sideways.. you can do that.. I am just not considering bitcoin to really be inclined towards sideways so there might be some temporary reasons why we continue to be in such a state.. but then again we were in the $50ks and $60ks for decently long periods at two points in 2021 before having the major correction in 2022.. yet at the same time, we have some different kinds of dynamics going on right now, but bitcoin is never really the same - in the sense of a man never steps in the same river twice.. .. so yeah, perceptions and spinnenings and dreams of sideways.. go ahead.. dream all you like.

Maybe it is a BIG SO WHAT to assert that bitcoin gets stuck in some sideways position for a while from time to time, yet it is difficult to say how that sideways is going to play out.. but anyone wanting gradual and "stable" bitcoin prices should have some reason to rejoice in recent times.. . and yeah, we are here until we are not.. and where you proclaim the sideways to be is a bit of a BIG price range if you really want to seem correct.. and I am not going to say that between $100k and $130k is the new don't wake me up zone.. but there likely is a need to describe such zone in some kind of a way. and funny as it may seem, if we want to characterize the last 10-ish months, we might say that BTC prices finally broke through the $55k to $80k-ish don't wake me up zone and then has steadily been having that zone grind upwardly little by little and so it had become $80k to $100k-ish until about May. and then since May it has been grinding up and slowly dragging the don't wake me up zone to higher levels.. even though surely each of us likely get's excited each time new ATHs hit and they have been various relatively small UPpity jumps, but still somewhat exciting, nonetheless.
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September 02, 2025, 07:01:09 AM


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September 02, 2025, 07:12:45 AM
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By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.

Fair enough.

Here are the USA nontaxable gift limitations through the past 45-ish years.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gift_tax_in_the_United_States

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.
how often did we do from dec to sept in a 106k to 110k slot
1 time bro just this time.
the dynamics for a four year cycle are shot to hell.

You are preparing to get wrecked again based on your wanting to invent your own BTC price models?


silver mooning
copper mooning
btc flat for 10 months basically in the ATH range never happen.

You sound distracted.  Zoom out.

You want to get wrecked or what?

tell me that in 2013/2014 we did 10 months in a 1000-1300 slot nope
tell me that in 2017/18 we did 10 months in a 18-19.5k slot nope
tell me that in 2021/22 we did 10 months in a 58-69k slot nope

so fuck that four year cycle shit.

Perhaps this time is different than the previous times, but it does not negate the 4-year cycle, yet. Yeah of course, we cannot become overly reliant on the 4-year cycle, yet it seems crazy and premature to be throwing it out for blah blah blah reasons.

Even last cycle, everyone pouncing upon stock to flow because the 4-year cycle did not have a high enough top.. but if you look at the charts, the 4-year cycle seems to be continuing to go.. at least so far.

we grind along and peak way slower maybe Jan of 2027

perhaps.. and perhaps not.

I do like the idea of peaking later, and I am not even opposed to ongoing grinding up that maybe extends the cycle  another 1, 2, 3 or 4-ish quarters.  I still would not necessarily give up on the 4-year cycle, yet.

By the way, it becomes more and more difficult to have a crash if we don't get some kind of a blow off top.
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September 02, 2025, 08:01:13 AM


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