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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26919127 times)
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September 02, 2025, 03:01:17 PM


Explanation
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September 02, 2025, 03:06:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K

That approach doesn't work. Nobody buys if you try to convince them. Tried it with a family member at 170$, no chance!

They come on their own when they see your success... humans are a greedy jealous bunch of mofo's  Wink

that's the only way I have seen it work... when they came I was there for them answering their questions (surely not giving them coins though  Cheesy).
Of course you never get anything in return... it's community work
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September 02, 2025, 03:10:50 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

They come on their own when they see your success... humans are a greedy jealous bunch of mofo's  Wink

Fomo mofos.
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September 02, 2025, 03:16:26 PM
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Bitcoin has taken a new place among all the amazing technologies, discoveries, and creations that have occurred since 1000 AD to the present. Maybe this is a surprising discovery of the world to come.

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September 02, 2025, 03:21:52 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K

That approach doesn't work. Nobody buys if you try to convince them. Tried it with a family member at 170$, no chance!

They come on their own when they see your success... humans are a greedy jealous bunch of mofo's  Wink

that's the only way I have seen it work... when they came I was there for them answering their questions (surely not giving them coins though  Cheesy).
Of course you never get anything in return... it's community work

In some cases, they don't even come around when all of the following conditions apply. This actually happened to me recently. I bought last year somewhere slightly over $50k. They:

1) Have seen your success, know the multiplier for your last purchase cause you've told them I bought $x of coin yesterday (they know x too).

2) Have ample availability of cash plus other liquid assets that could be cornverted <--- (see what I did here?)

3) Have all the technical skills to execute the trade themselves. Know how to sign up, transfer money etc.

4) Know a good deal about finance and banking. Know how to compute mortgage installments, for example. THIS may be the dealbreaker. Maybe too deep in tradfi to see bitcoin for what it is?

TL;DR Nocoiners will nocoin. No use wasting energy over them. The age of evangelism is over IMHO.
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September 02, 2025, 04:01:17 PM


Explanation
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September 02, 2025, 04:07:31 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

First off, thanks, Jay. I really appreciate you breaking it down like that...

My situation is a bit different than most. I have not bought any corn since before this account was created. I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus. I was also the product of a broken home and severe drug addictions. Statistically speaking, I should be under a bridge sucking dick for crack (a bad thing, as I am not into the peen). I was on my own at 14 and had to figure out how to pretend to be an adult and get all the things that adults did as a minor done.

 How I am not dead or in jail has always been a mystery to me. That being said, I saw and was a part of some of the very first real-world use cases of these cornz and I saw with my own 2 eyes that this magic internet money only used by illicit chemical vendors was in fact a complete replacement of almost everything I saw wrong with the current debt-driven system. I was lucky enough to live in a city where they had a pretty big (at the time) conference about BTC and was orangepilled early. And the more I looked into it the more I realized that this was the way out for me.

 I still remember sending in the postal money order to a stranger in another state and receiving my first cornz at a bit of a premium over spot. I was new and needed to at least get in on the game, so I waited patiently for the email with directions on how to claim my new purchase at 3.17 USD, I believe. I still have my alpaca socks!!! I was irresponsible, and I spent so much it almost makes me sick, but if we did not back in the day, we would not be where we are now. Never did I think we would actually get here.

 I don't consider myself rich in the sense of being some super multi-millionaire. I am not greedy. The one thing, though, none of us can buy is time... it's priceless. We can buy everything else... so in that regard, I don't regret any of the time I was able to harvest by selling a bit of these cornz. That being said, I do think I have set myself up to be able to get the most out of every day, hour, minute, or second I have left on this crazy place we call earth! It has been a reverse midlife crisis for me!

 As far as being overinvested... that's just it. I don't believe that is a term that works in my scenario, as I have been 100% all in for over a decade. I haven't been able to buy more, as I effectively was able to come up with a plan that, in my mind, could not rust away. I have no other income; I live very modestly on what I have, and it has grown to more than I think I will ever need. That's just it, as it keeps exponentially growing in fiat terms. There's no reason to get off this train till I find myself a rocket!

 I just don't think there is anything else I could diversify into that would not make me regret it, as every single other thing I have tried has been a failure when you measure it in BTC not dollars! I don't want children. I believe the world is a shitehole currently. and it's going to get worse. But we all have to play the hand we were dealt.

Again I am not complaining.
K  

Of course, I can think of scenarios in which a person who came from a broken family and presumptively without any steady income could have had gotten into bitcoin and then to be able to live off of their bitcoin, yet it would be quite rare, not very typical and filled with quite a bit of luck, since the fact of the matter is that it becomes quite difficult for anyone to continue to mostly HODL, even if spending some bitcoin along the way to be able to hold back from spending all of it, since some kind of a steady income would be needed - and if not steady in the traditional sense, at least steady enough to lessen the inclinations to spend too much too soon - especially during ripping periods, but even more illogical and irrational that a lot of us end up being to end up selling too much when the price is going down out of fear of loss.

And, yeah, it could be that you just hit the matter perfectly, but seems quite a stroke of luck if you had been able to succeed in not selling too much too soon.

Even with myself, I find my own situation a kind of miracle.. maybe luck or whatever, but I did have some income sources lined up and there were a few times where I could have had ended up tapping into my bitcoin at the wrong time, but I didn't and when I reflect back there was quite a bit of going against the grain for myself...

and kind of reminds me of vapourminer's story (sorry if I got it a bit wrong, but it is in my thinking like this) in which he said that for quite a period of time, his wife was pretty much arguing that they needed to be disciplined in the sense of making sure that they cash out a certain amount of BTC on a regular basis, yet at some point, both of them come to realize that they were thinking about bitcoin wrong - and the need to regularly sell was not as great as they had previously thought. 

And, similar with philip who even admits that he did not see some aspect of the light about bitcoin (I still question a bit if he actually sees the light about bitcoin) until sometime in or after 2017.. and surely he might not have had started to really hold onto bitcoin until after 2020.. I cannot remember his situation very well, even though I seem to hound him about it on a weekly basis for the past cycle and a half or more. I surely don't dislike Philip but sometimes he shares a lot and his ideas seem to have so much short-term fiat focus that it clashes with some of my own ways of trying to both think about bitcoin and to talk with others about bitcoin and why we do it and why there is a kind of need to build up a nest egg prior to spending from it in any meaningful way, even though there could be ways that any of us are spending from our bitcoin over the years and still cme out o.k... which was a bit of my argument with WatChe recently...  and sometimes it could still end up working out if we ongoingly spend but also ongoingly accumulate so that our accumulation is greatly outpacing our spends.

My own approach had been largely spend and replace between late 2013 and early 2017.. and perhaps even spend and replace after early 2017, even though in about early 2017, I kind of learned to let go of the idea that my BTC holdings had to ongoingly continue to grow.  My ideas of over accumulation and the ramifications of it has surely changed at various points since late 2014 when I had first considered that I might have reached such status of at least sufficient accumulation and in 2015 I was more inclined to consider myself in over accumulation status, yet for reasons somewhat (but not totally) different than how I would come to such assessment of over accumulation status these days.

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.

Funny that some guys continue to have the cornz on a strict schedule, and even if such expectations might end up being correct, there should be less absolute ways of presenting such matters... even though surely many of us expect that the odds are quite great for more up to come, yet if we don't end up going through exponential UP (like some kind of a blow off top, even if it might ONLY be another 50% to 80% rise in the coming months, then it becomes more and more difficult to consider that a great downfall is coming.. yet I doubt that means the end of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle might end up getting extended a bit and then perhaps even end up overlapping into time in which the next cycle should be beginning and the old cycle had not ended or gone through some kind of a meaningful crashening.

I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus.
A hustle will always be better than being told what to do.

I wonder?

Sometimes there can be advantages to get stuck in a large organization at a few different times in our lives and to see how they work from the inside and from individually experiencing aspects of them - like a kind of training about procedures and checks and balances that sometimes have to play out within organizations.   I don't even claim to have a vast swath of experiences, even though I have gone through some interesting ones when I was part of various organizations, and not necessarily making into some of the roles of my peers based on various choices that I made from within my own choice of contribution within places that had a variety of roles and a variety of interesting characters, even within the organizations.

Even the break up of those kinds of various relations can play out in interesting ways, to be part of such organization and then no longer being a part.

Oh yeah, and I recall some periods of doing volunteer work and even variations of internships, and some of the view of the inside and/or the dedication that might be needed could be "going through the motions" or maybe trying to learn at a more in-depth level, and gosh those experiences ended up being stepping stones, and sometimes caused me to wonder what the fuck I was doing by engaging myself in non-paying jobs for relatively extended periods of time merely for the sake of having some things that I could put on my resume when I applied for the BIGGER positions.. yet on my own, I likely would not have had even imagined the path that was going to take place or how that path ended up actually taking place as compared with the earlier visions and even sometimes the goal setting that can take place in youth as compared with how goal setting might play out differently as we get older and there might not be reasons to have goals beyond or reasons to engage in certain kinds of work, whether for pay or for "learning" experiences.. .or maybe to consider the extent to which whatever we might be doing is making any difference for others beyond our ability to say that we did such things.

By the way, I frequently had been skeptical of various kinds of authority which sometimes got me into pickles, yet also sometimes there is quite a bit of value in terms of trying to learn from folks who might be telling us what to do, especially in our youth when we are potentially most receptive to learning and finding out why some things in the world play out the way that they do, but yeah, even reporting for a job for several years and/or trying to stay on a schedule and being committed to doing certain kinds of work within the guidelines of the position can have some liberation, even within seeming constraints of acceptable versus not acceptable.

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
Here are the USA nontaxable gift limitations through the past 45-ish years.
Here, the tax-free gift amount is €2690 per person per year. But if you receive it from someone abroad, there is no limit and you don't need to report it to taxes!

I was almost considering that I should have had amended my post to observe that for the first 40-ish years on the chart, from 1981 to 2021, the amount of increase had ONLY gone up $5k (which would have had been 50% from the original $10k in 1981 to $15k in 2021), and from 2022 to 2025, it went up $1k per year, which would have had been 26% for the last 4 years.

The tax free gift rate in the USA is a pretty good amount, relatively speaking compared with your mentioning your €2690 per person per year rate.
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September 02, 2025, 04:25:18 PM
Merited by nutildah (2), vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), psycodad (1)

The age of evangelism is over IMHO.

No kidding.

I recently thought about my collection of BTC buttons, tie pins, etc., and wondered if Id ever wear one again. I used to wear a BTC baseball cap everywhere I went, including on stage. That was before we started worrying about $5 wrenches.

At one time I wore a t-shirt I had made with "BTCeer Fund" and a QR code on the front. If I did that now people would probably scan it thinking it was a link to a website.

Not all my Bitcoin evangelism was wasted though. One non-wealthy friend acquired almost 3 whole bitcoins for less than $1k CAD total a decade or so ago, and is still steadfastly holding 2 whole coins for his old age. Out of the remaining less than a coin, he has already done several renovations on his home including a new roof, taken several vacations, and enjoyed other lifestyle benefits. Another acquired 11 whole coins when he was already in his 70s and somehow managed to just barely spend or give them all away by the time he passed away a few years ago. They were the exceptions though. Most merely ignored Bitcoin while some ridiculed me for wasting my money on what they saw as an obvious scam.
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September 02, 2025, 05:07:53 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (2), JayJuanGee (1)

I have 3 friends that actually listened; 2 of them are still holding strong. And yeah, J I am definitely extremely lucky to be in the position I am in... But again, getting rich wasn't the goal (albeit a happy accident). I was a supporter of the tech when the dollar side of it was just a pipe dream. Us chemists definitely made out and were lucky to see a real-world working use... (The kiddie pron guys though... they were the real early adopters.(If only I was a diddler!!)
 
 I may not be as early as Jimbo... But I have the same collection of shirts, hats, buttons, and giveaways, and again, I don't regret those times, as we got to really be on the frontlines of an actual change in the world! I do for sure worry about Wrenchs, though, and have to look twice for them around every corner. And I have definitely taken a break spreading the "good word" (no one listens anyway)

 Just need to get through September....
K
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September 02, 2025, 06:01:22 PM


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September 02, 2025, 06:12:06 PM

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping. This smells like intimidation. Let us not be scared.

The royal "us"?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I couldn't resist.

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping.
The way I look at Bitcoin, it's dropping most of the time. If I'd have accurate historic data I'd do the math, but if I'd have to take a guess, it feels like it's dropping 90% of the time. But when it goes up, it goes up much faster than it went down.

Visualized:
down down down down down down down down down UP down down down down down down down down down UP down down down down down down ............

Some variation of that is probably a healthy perspective in regards to bitcoin and part of the justification for "always being prepared for up."  

There are quite a few guys in bitcoin who are likely smart as fuck, but it only takes one time out of 10-ish times in which they end up losing all their gainz from their having had been so smart to get in and out and in and out and then wham.. they got out but the price bounced up 2x or some other level of inconvenience and they end up being trapped into a waiting strategy rather than either a buying and/or holding strategy which would have had been superior overall strategies... worse, is that some of them end up turning bitter as a result of their having had either lost all of their earlier gainz and/or their having had put their whole bitcoin situation into a waste of time when bitcoin was like a sure bet, but they somehow figured out ways to lose money or not even come close to a similar level of gain as the person who errored on the side of accumulating and/or holding for the longer term.

From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K

I consider myself as a normie.. but for just some reason, I was at a point in my life that I was receptive to bitcoin when I got into it.. so sometimes it can take some kind of an incident or some piece information for a person to recognize and/or appreciate bitcoin enough to get started in their sat-stacking journey.

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping.
The way I look at Bitcoin, it's dropping most of the time.
Visualized:
down down down down down down down down down UP down down down down
I agree and I've got the same feeling. But I was referring to lower time and number scales, in particular recently. It looks something like

(usual down down UP down down down) down Down UP UP (usual down down UP down down down)

And it feels like bears shaking a tree with a honeycomb on it.

hahahahaha

How about bears trying to hold a beachball under water at a windy beach with a 90%-ish success rate and a few failures that were bound to happen along the way and sometimes when the ball gets away it really gets away for a bit of time until they are able to get it back and push it back under water.

From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K
I didn't offer anything to anyone like you, but by the way I advised some friends that it would be smart to invest a few hundred $ in BTC, but I have the same experience as you that no one listened to me. To make matters worse, one of them bought it anyway, kept it in a hot wallet on the computer where his children were playing, and one day it all disappeared. He ended up blaming me and being so annoying that I made up for his loss.

The lesson I learned is that you shouldn't stick your nose where it doesn't belong, and this especially applies to everything related to finances - everyone should do whatever they want with their money.

I had experiences with a couple of folks who really fucked up, and I kind of helped out after they experienced their loss.. yet they have to meet certain conditions of either remorse and/or a sympathetic character.. and/or maybe continuing to try to get back on track.. so it can even be difficult to decide when and/or if to help..

which if the person were to be blaming me, I would be quite a bit less receptive to helping, yet there also can be some folks who are sympathetic characters, even if they might not have what I would consider to be very good inter-personal skills.. .. and each of us likely meet those kinds of people in our lives in which they have all kinds of seemingly great characteristics, yet at the same time, they have some characteristics that are quite annoying and causing us to want to be careful in our interactions with them.. .it is like any moment we could become collateral damage to their moments of chaos.

[edited out]
TL;DR Nocoiners will nocoin. No use wasting energy over them. The age of evangelism is over IMHO.

I don't completely agree with your conclusion, since we are going to ongoingly have nocoiners becoming coiners, whether we are arguing over the definition of no coiner or not, since many of them are likely precoiners, and I am not even proclaiming tthat they need to be evangelized upon in any kind of meaningful way or that we need to put efforts into convincing them, except perhaps there likely will be times in which folks who seemed previously hostile and/or even nonchalant about bitcoin will warm up to the idea of bitcoin (like perhaps all of a sudden, they begin to "get it.")

I recently thought about my collection of BTC buttons, tie pins, etc., and wondered if Id ever wear one again. I used to wear a BTC baseball cap everywhere I went, including on stage. That was before we started worrying about $5 wrenches.

Hopefully at some point in the future, some form of BTC fashion and/or attire can come back into fashion (or acceptability to wear) - like if a lot of people are wearing it, then why should any of us consider whether or not they hold bitcoin or should they be attacked merely because they wear something related to bitcoin.

Call me a sentimentalist... or at least a person that considers that we should not have to fear actually personally interacting with other human beings in the flesh and blood without thinking that someone is going to attack us or that they have a virus or some other seemingly bullshit that seems a ploy to want to atomize us and to contribute to our disempowerment.. .. namely the power to transact and to communicate in person..

The powers that be would just love it if we are all afraid of each other so that we channel  all (or most) of our communications and/or our transactions through mediums that they can monitor and/or selectively manipulate (or shut off at their whim).
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September 02, 2025, 06:23:58 PM

Bitcoin has taken a new place among all the amazing technologies, discoveries, and creations that have occurred since 1000 AD to the present. Maybe this is a surprising discovery of the world to come.



It certainly has much more of a claim than quantum computing which I strongly suspect is going to take a seat with nuclear fusion and always be 10 years away.
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September 02, 2025, 06:27:25 PM

TL;DR Nocoiners will nocoin. No use wasting energy over them. The age of evangelism is over IMHO.

They are often risk averse while also being very bad at assessing risk.
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September 02, 2025, 06:32:41 PM

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping. This smells like intimidation. Let us not be scared.

The royal "us"?

The WO us.
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September 02, 2025, 06:34:01 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The tax free gift rate in the USA is a pretty good amount, relatively speaking compared with your mentioning your €2690 per person per year rate.

The correct gift rate is infinite. The specious argument that the government helps create the environment for commerce and therefore deserves a share (a lion's share, apparently) of sales and income is specious enough. That it somehow contributes to the interpersonal relationship that leads to gifts of sums of money is a completely unjustified position. The only actual valid interpretation of the gift tax is "I sees it and I wants it."

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September 02, 2025, 06:38:31 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), Findingnemo (1)

A long time ago, in one of my classes (I was teaching digital electronics to military trainees), I offered to give $1 in Bitcoin to anyone who cared to learn about it. A few students were interested, especially the females. I asked them to invest one month's worth of their allowance (paid to them monthly by the military academy) in Bitcoin. This would have gotten them a good amount, maybe close to 0.5 BTC at the time. But no one did what I suggested. Not to my knowledge at least.

Some years later, one of those female students (she had already graduated and in service by then) came to me, to tell me that the $1 I had donated to her had become $30! She asked me how to buy more, but when she saw the price she gave me the all-too-familiar "it's too expensive" line.

I rarely (if at all) talk about Bitcoin to nocoiners these days. It's not worth the effort, and there are the $5 wrench attacks to consider too. If you think it's too late, then it is. For you.

“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto
xhomerx10
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September 02, 2025, 06:39:33 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I think Bitcoin value moves more like this:

        /           /      
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September 02, 2025, 06:43:28 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I recently thought about my collection of BTC buttons, tie pins, etc., and wondered if Id ever wear one again. I used to wear a BTC baseball cap everywhere I went, including on stage. That was before we started worrying about $5 wrenches.


Well, on the optimistic side, there must be a lot of people out there with fairly low balances (or even the ETFs now) enough that the prospects for a potential robber might not actually look that great. On the other hand, if they know some (but not a lot) they might assume you're carrying all your stash on your phone.

If you're driving around in a Lambo with a Bitcoin wrap, all bets are off, of course.

In the end though, need to know seems to be the best policy and the number of people who need to know is somewhere close to zero.



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A long time ago, in one of my classes (I was teaching digital electronics to military trainees), I offered to give $1 in Bitcoin to anyone who cared to learn about it. A few students were interested, especially the females. I asked them to invest one month's worth of their allowance (paid to them monthly by the military academy) in Bitcoin. This would have gotten them a good amount, maybe close to 0.5 BTC at the time. But no one did what I suggested. Not to my knowledge at least.

Of the two people I gave trial sums of Bitcoin to, both lost their phones (even though I had told them specifically to make sure they backed up their wallets). One found their lost one again after a search. I also gifted some but having learned my lesson, I gave a paper wallet and kept a copy of the private key.
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September 02, 2025, 06:47:49 PM
Last edit: September 02, 2025, 07:14:40 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

I think Bitcoin value moves more like this:

        /           /      


So true. Never does!
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