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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26919041 times)
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September 02, 2025, 07:22:43 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

so fuck that four year cycle shit.

This might as well be blasphemy. Ignore the cycle at your own peril. Just like I told you ladder selling at $50K was a bad idea, ignoring the 4-year cycle is an even worse idea. Things always look brightest right before the fall. We may get a MSTR S&P500 inclusion and a rate reduction this month and people will be piling into BTC in full FOMO mode. If that happens, I’ll be dumping more BTC than I ever have before with absolutely no regrets.


I think Bitcoin value moves more like this:


        /           /      

C’mon. Everyone knows it goes up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b, a, b, a.
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September 02, 2025, 07:32:57 PM
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From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K

That approach doesn't work. Nobody buys if you try to convince them. Tried it with a family member at 170$, no chance!

They come on their own when they see your success... humans are a greedy jealous bunch of mofo's  Wink

that's the only way I have seen it work... when they came I was there for them answering their questions (surely not giving them coins though  Cheesy).
Of course you never get anything in return... it's community work

In some cases, they don't even come around when all of the following conditions apply. This actually happened to me recently. I bought last year somewhere slightly over $50k. They:

1) Have seen your success, know the multiplier for your last purchase cause you've told them I bought $x of coin yesterday (they know x too).

2) Have ample availability of cash plus other liquid assets that could be cornverted <--- (see what I did here?)

3) Have all the technical skills to execute the trade themselves. Know how to sign up, transfer money etc.

4) Know a good deal about finance and banking. Know how to compute mortgage installments, for example. THIS may be the dealbreaker. Maybe too deep in tradfi to see bitcoin for what it is?

TL;DR Nocoiners will nocoin. No use wasting energy over them. The age of evangelism is over IMHO.

That's right. Not everybody will come and ask.

However that's exactly my barrier I put up before I even talk to them about dee cornz.

And also I never tell them to buy. Rather the opposite. I tell them who hard and painful it is to hodl through bear markets etc. I tell them they should view the invested money as lost. lol

Almost everyone accepts the challenge.

Maybe if it sounds too good to be true people won't believe it..?


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September 02, 2025, 07:45:05 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1), Hottiek (1)

From 2014 almost up till the 2017 run-up, I offered to give one BTC to any one of my friends who bought one themselves and promised to hold it for 5 years, and not a single one of them took me up on my offer. I would stand up at the weekly open mic night and not do comedy but try and orange-pill others... not a single one listened.

 I did, however, have not one but 2 of them call me last year and tell me that they were ready to buy, and how do I give them their free one?? I made that offer at roughly a 250.00 spot price and they had the nerve to ask me for 44,000 (currently 111k) it was at that point that I finally just realized we truly do get them cornz at the price we deserve
The best part is now they blame me for not trying hard enough to get them onboarded.
I will never understand the normies
K
It’s actually quite natural. People always want to hear stories of success but very few are ready to listen to storie of struggle or failure. I have been with bitcoin for almost 11 years right  now. Over this time I have learned countless lessons made mistakes but also taken the right decisions.

My journey started back in college. I had a teacher who owned around 5 bitcoins. He used to tell me If you want to build a good future for yourself, try to buy some bitcoin and hold it. One day this will change your life. His words left a deep mark on me.As a student I did not have much enough money. I take some money  from my father, added a little from my own small savings, and managed to buy a bit of Bitcoin. Honestly, I did not understand much at the time. I was simply relying on my teacher belief and his advice.There were many moments along the way when i thought maybe, i should just sell it’s already profitable. But every time, my teacher would stop me. He would say to me be patient. The real time has not come yet. Looking back now i realize that without his words, I probably would have made the wrong move and sold too early.As time passed, that small investment completely changed my life. It was not just about making money. I also learned patience, conviction, and the true mindset of holding. I still have those bitcoins today, and they’re now worth around $57k. Now I stand at another new chapter of life I am planning to get married soon. Many people advise me, sell some now and cover the wedding expenses. Yet  another part of me feels this is my greatest asset, should i really let it go so easily?

To be honest, i am still torn. On one side is the responsibility of starting a new life. On the other side is my teacher lesson patience, and the belief that the real rewards of bitcoin are still ahead. What sall i do now?
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September 02, 2025, 09:09:25 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I have 3 friends that actually listened; 2 of them are still holding strong. And yeah, J I am definitely extremely lucky to be in the position I am in... But again, getting rich wasn't the goal (albeit a happy accident). I was a supporter of the tech when the dollar side of it was just a pipe dream. Us chemists definitely made out and were lucky to see a real-world working use... (The kiddie pron guys though... they were the real early adopters.(If only I was a diddler!!)
 
 I may not be as early as Jimbo... But I have the same collection of shirts, hats, buttons, and giveaways, and again, I don't regret those times, as we got to really be on the frontlines of an actual change in the world! I do for sure worry about Wrenchs, though, and have to look twice for them around every corner. And I have definitely taken a break spreading the "good word" (no one listens anyway)

 Just need to get through September....
K

I am not sure if any of us was doing "god's work" merely because we happen to be early adopters and attempting to spread the word. Yet, at the same time, of course, times change, and so many folks in recent times have heard about bitcoin and they might even think that they know what bitcoin is, yet there are so many who are still quite ill-informed about bitcoin and there are also some people in which they have not really formed any impressions about what bitcoin is because they occupy themselves with other topics and they may well not realize that bitcoin is relevant to them and aspects of their lives.

For sure, I am torn about these ideas of why any of us should be scared to interact with others in the real world and/or to either bring up the topic of bitcoin or to pursue such topic if someone else were to bring it up... and yeah, even in the real world, their are trolls and disingenuine folks who are just trying to suck out information or to not contribute proof of work into a topic.. .I cannot necessarily blame folks who might be reserved in acting rather than talking and/or potentially talking in ways that are evasive and non-commital.. yet I see no reason to necessarily be guilty of the same kind of behaviors, since some of us have some knowledge about the topic of bitcoin and we might have some responsibilities, even though surely we are not forced to have to share information and/or to necessarily put our own-selves at risk.. but at the same time, we may well need to figure out for ourselves how great of an idea it might be to attempt to be secretive about bitcoin even though we might have mixtures of genuine and disingenuine people within the folks who will hear about our bitcoin discussions or even their coming to suppositions in regards to whether or not we have coin.

The tax free gift rate in the USA is a pretty good amount, relatively speaking compared with your mentioning your €2690 per person per year rate.
The correct gift rate is infinite. The specious argument that the government helps create the environment for commerce and therefore deserves a share (a lion's share, apparently) of sales and income is specious enough. That it somehow contributes to the interpersonal relationship that leads to gifts of sums of money is a completely unjustified position. The only actual valid interpretation of the gift tax is "I sees it and I wants it."

I am not opposed to taxes and/or arguments that certain kinds of activities might be more "deserving" of tax than other areas.. especially since I do consider that there are such things as public goods and/or that some public goods/services might not be produced without some kind of a reasonable public intervention.. .and yeah of course, abuses take place and yeah, sometimes systems for assigning of value to public goods/services can also be abused and/or abusive.

Wealth taxes do seem a bit problematic - even though there may be contexts in which they are not really unfair given other possible revenue sources (or other ways of extracting taxes to the extent that there is an agreement that some kinds of funding might be justified beyond mere policing and/or dispute resolution or the bare minimums of government/public service that some libertarians might consider as acceptable... not that the libertarians are correct on either assessments that government services are not needed and/or that some of the positive outcomes would not be carried out absent some kind of governmental overlay.

A long time ago, in one of my classes (I was teaching digital electronics to military trainees), I offered to give $1 in Bitcoin to anyone who cared to learn about it. A few students were interested, especially the females. I asked them to invest one month's worth of their allowance (paid to them monthly by the military academy) in Bitcoin. This would have gotten them a good amount, maybe close to 0.5 BTC at the time. But no one did what I suggested. Not to my knowledge at least.

Some years later, one of those female students (she had already graduated and in service by then) came to me, to tell me that the $1 I had donated to her had become $30! She asked me how to buy more, but when she saw the price she gave me the all-too-familiar "it's too expensive" line.

I rarely (if at all) talk about Bitcoin to nocoiners these days. It's not worth the effort, and there are the $5 wrench attacks to consider too. If you think it's too late, then it is. For you.
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto

It does help when some folks have gone through some personal experience to see the number go up angle that might also get them to consider why the number is going up rather than presumptively (and sometimes arrogantly) concluding that they understand it sufficiently to recognize that it is too expensive, when they are likely assessing it from an ignorant position that they cannot even appreciate their own lack of ignorance... and/or their presumptiveness.

I may have told this story previously, but I was with a group of guys golfing (actually at the club house after having had golfed - mostly like an amateur kind of a gathering which why I was there just to have funz), and we were mostly peers with maybe around 6-8 guys in the conversation, yet other guys milling in and out of the conversation, so it was maybe a total of 12 guys who participated in aspects of the conversation.  

There were a few guys who were younger and some older.. and for some reason we were really going to town in regards to our bitcoin discussion, and I am thinking that it was early July-ish of 2019 since it seemed to have had predated covid, but it was still fairly recent in times.. so yeah the bitcoin price had gone from $4,200 to $13,880 and then crashed back down again.. so I think that I might have been talking with those guys around the peak of bitcoin's price for that run, even though the price had already begun to come down from the $13,880 price peak.

There were guys on the fence and several naysayers, and they were just having a good ole time ragging on me as the ONLY one who was really standing up for bitcoin, even though there were a couple of quasi-allies in the group who liked me as a person (so I had some respect in the group).. so yeah, it was a fairly fun conversation and a bit memorable for its intensity since from time to time, I was throwing out some insults towards guys who were proclaiming that bitcoin was a bubble or that it was a scam or that it was just some ephemeral phenomena... . Several arguments that I had already heard and/or addressed in this forum and also with other real life bitcoin naysayers.

A couple of the guys in the group said that they might want to get into bitcoin and/or to follow through with looking into bitcoin, yet I get the sense that none of them really did, even though they weren't exactly people that I see on a regular basis, so every once in a while I might see one or another from the group, and I might not even recall who was in the conversation or participated for some short periods, though surely several guys seemed to really enjoy the topic.. .There may have been some girls too.. but I cannot remember any specifically.

Some of the arguments about BTC price dynamics, I would suggest to not give too many shits about price, yet that those guys needed to get the fuck started buying bitcoin regularly and then maybe reassess after several years of accumulating and consider their involvement in bitcoin as a long term play rather than a trade.

Surely several of the naysayers of the group were correct for the next year or so, but they hardly could proclaim themselves to have been correct after October 2020-ish when largely bitcoin was going up and really did not come back below $10k or even below $15k anymore ever again... even in spite of the short-term period that bitcoin spent bouncing around between $15.5k and $20k in 2022 and even into parts of early 2023.  Many of us would just love to have sub $30k bitcoin and even sub $40k bitcoin would be a dream to many guys in these current times.  The odds of sub $40k or even sub $30k bitcoin ever happening again seem to be quite low, probably in the sub 2% territories, absent some bitcoin is broken discovery.

I think Bitcoin value moves more like this:
        /           /      

You are like the most scientific person that I never did meet.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

In the end though, need to know seems to be the best policy and the number of people who need to know is somewhere close to zero.

This is a gloomy view of our needs (as a people - and even individually beneficial) to be able to socially interact based on a variety of topics, including something so important, such as bitcoin.

so fuck that four year cycle shit.
This might as well be blasphemy. Ignore the cycle at your own peril. Just like I told you ladder selling at $50K was a bad idea, ignoring the 4-year cycle is an even worse idea.

Ladder selling is not really a great idea for anyone who had not yet reached overaccumulation status - otherwise, if a guy is just selling at any price based on his needs or wants without expectations of buying back cheaper and he is well into overaccumulation status, then it doesn't really matter so much when he sells.

Things always look brightest right before the fall. We may get a MSTR S&P500 inclusion and a rate reduction this month and people will be piling into BTC in full FOMO mode. If that happens, I’ll be dumping more BTC than I ever have before with absolutely no regrets.

From your forum registration date, you have been involved in bitcoin longer than most of us, even Phil, and you still haven't seemed to figure things out.

You want to trade as if you are smarter than everyone else who is buying?

Good luck with that.  Probably the reason that you are still fucking around trying to trade is because on multiple occasions, you have still not learned your lesson, and you could have had more bitcoin than god, but you have been (and ongoingly seem to be) too busy being too smart for your own good.

But, hey whatever.  Do what you want.  You are again going to think that you are rich because you are holding onto a bunch of dollars.. and if the BTC price does not come back down after you make your supposed genius move, then what you going to do?  likely buy back at higher prices but not really disclosing your ongoing dumbassedness for thinking that trading dee cornz is anything close to being smart.

Of course, you are too arrogant to admit your lost ways both historically and the likely vacuousness of your current plan that seems to involve selling way too much too soon.

But hey.

You do you.


[edited out]
That's right. Not everybody will come and ask.
However that's exactly my barrier I put up before I even talk to them about dee cornz.

And also I never tell them to buy. Rather the opposite. I tell them who hard and painful it is to hodl through bear markets etc. I tell them they should view the invested money as lost. lol

Almost everyone accepts the challenge.
Maybe if it sounds too good to be true people won't believe it..?

I think that we have had this conversation previously, yet you are sparking me, again.

You claim to have a relatively high conversion rate?  So you have a decently large number of folks who actually invest into bitcoin and are able to stay in bitcoin for at least a whole cycle after talking with you?
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September 02, 2025, 09:34:46 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)


oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?
Not even clothes left!



 Based on that skin tone, I would say you have sunscreen you can sell to buy more coin!


I stole his damn sunscreen  and sold it for corn, I was going to gift him with one of my suits I am too fat to wear anymore without shame...  but meh... he can knit his own suit out of beach grasses...

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September 02, 2025, 09:36:41 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), Hottiek (1)

~
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto
People are happy to spend their money to buy a new iPhone every year, willing to spend on fancy restaurants for a date, Starbucks, parties, and ohhh on everything that is useless… but when it comes to the one thing that may actually change their life for good, suddenly they need to “think about it deeply” and end up with nah, I can’t afford it.

Well, I guess they probably deserved to be stuck in the hamster wheel.
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September 02, 2025, 10:40:19 PM
Merited by Findingnemo (1)

~
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto
People are happy to spend their money to buy a new iPhone every year, willing to spend on fancy restaurants for a date, Starbucks, parties, and ohhh on everything that is useless… but when it comes to the one thing that may actually change their life for good, suddenly they need to “think about it deeply” and end up with nah, I can’t afford it.

Well, I guess they probably deserved to be stuck in the hamster wheel.



 "Have fun. Staying poor" is one I like to use a lot... The sad part is that if they would just listen to me rather than be jealous or pissed off about what they missed. The ones that come to me each cycle asking about what the "next bitcoin" is??? How many times have I heard, "I'm so happy that you got rich (like they have any clue)," all the while never hearing, "Hey, guess what I bought"? The extra sad part is that I actually have a great deal more that have reached out to me after the fact asking how to get the money that they made on xxx blah crap boing, and they just need my help getting out all their gains... The only consistent thing other than them not buying Cornz is they all get mad at me like I am the one who stole their money when I have to explain the Nigerian prince scam to them....

 I don't hide my involvement as much as just not try to blatantly convert each and everyone I see at the grocery store. I feel I have put my time in and it was wasted at that. Luckily enough for whatever reason or reasons, I have found myself here, and it's another crazy top in what seems like a never-ending rollercoaster. I am truly amazed each and every day. Not that I haven't made stoopid and not so stoopid mistakes in abundance on my way to get here. Again, the fact that I am not greedy and have no need to "raise my nut" makes me feel like no matter what happens, it is going to be a great second half. (life that is) And that's just with current standings... Think about what is going to happen in the next 5 or 10 years that .63 will be worth exponentially more dollarinos. (hookers and blow for everyone!!!)

Just gotta wait a lil longer...
K
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September 02, 2025, 10:46:09 PM


oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?
Not even clothes left!



 Based on that skin tone, I would say you have sunscreen you can sell to buy more coin!


I stole his damn sunscreen  and sold it for corn, I was going to gift him with one of my suits I am too fat to wear anymore without shame...  but meh... he can knit his own suit out of beach grasses...



 That was a good laugh!  Thanks Smiley
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September 02, 2025, 11:47:33 PM
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By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.

so, basically we will be able to gift whole cornz again later this year?

buy the dip lol?





 If anyone wants to continue gifting whole coins, there is no tax on gifts nor limits here in Canada.   Wink

There is no real 19K limit in US either; the excess is not taxable to the donee, but is taxable to the donator ONLY when you exceed your lifetime gift tax exemption which is currently $13.99 mil per individual.
Soo...it still takes lots of btc to go over (roughly 126 btc if given in one go).
That said, after $13.99 mil taxes are brutal-I think 40% or so.

The best is to simply stay below $19K per person (from one person).
A couple can give 19+19=38K to each kid per year and never run afoul of the current $13.99 mil maximum (</= $19K is treated as if you never gave anything, imho).
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September 03, 2025, 12:01:32 AM
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"Have fun. Staying poor" is one I like to use a lot... The sad part is that if they would just listen to me rather than be jealous or pissed off about what they missed. The ones that come to me each cycle asking about what the "next bitcoin" is??? How many times have I heard, "I'm so happy that you got rich (like they have any clue)," all the while never hearing, "Hey, guess what I bought"? The extra sad part is that I actually have a great deal more that have reached out to me after the fact asking how to get the money that they made on xxx blah crap boing, and they just need my help getting out all their gains... The only consistent thing other than them not buying Cornz is they all get mad at me like I am the one who stole their money when I have to explain the Nigerian prince scam to them....

Usually, I don't try to teach anyone about anything unless they are curious about it already and making their progress on their own and we can guide them at that point but the decision has to be theirs not ours. If they say no then it's up to them and if we bought earlier and now enjoying the reap then it's the rewards for the risk we took back then.

Finally, it’s better to just ignore such sickos who end up blaming us for not “convincing” them harder.
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September 03, 2025, 12:16:47 AM
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Sorry for the off topic!

I know there are quite a few Americans that hang out here.  For those of you who might be football fans, I'm hosting an NFL Pick-Em pool for the regular season.  The participation fee is cheap, placing your weekly predictions takes just a few minutes, it's super fun, and there's over $2k worth BTC to divy up for prizes for the lucky and the skilled.

And, you don't have to be an American to participate, everyone is welcome.

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=5551724.msg65626455#msg65626455
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September 03, 2025, 12:29:49 AM

Not everybody will come and ask
barrier I put up before I even talk
dee cornz

never tell them to buy
hard and painful to hodl
view invested money as lost, ha

Almost everyone accepts the challenge

Clueless disciples
Sometimes it's the delivery
A zen teacher, much



#haiku
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September 03, 2025, 12:48:10 AM

~
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto
People are happy to spend their money to buy a new iPhone every year, willing to spend on fancy restaurants for a date, Starbucks, parties, and ohhh on everything that is useless… but when it comes to the one thing that may actually change their life for good, suddenly they need to “think about it deeply” and end up with nah, I can’t afford it.

Well, I guess they probably deserved to be stuck in the hamster wheel.
"Have fun. Staying poor" is one I like to use a lot... The sad part is that if they would just listen to me rather than be jealous or pissed off about what they missed. The ones that come to me each cycle asking about what the "next bitcoin" is??? How many times have I heard, "I'm so happy that you got rich (like they have any clue)," all the while never hearing, "Hey, guess what I bought"?
 

The thing is that if they mention that they should have had listened to me at some earlier point like 2014 when I first started saying something, but even there were plenty that would acknowledge that they should have had listened at any point..

So then my answer has tended to be "get started as soon as possible."  and still the situation repeats over and over and over and over...

even buying as late as 2022, 2023 or 2024 would have had been great - even if not as good as having had been able to buy in 2018, 2019, or 2020.

And for sure not as great, as 2014, 2015 and/or 2016...

Almost all of them look great to have average costs that are locked in, and geez anyone who has average cost of $30k or $40k or lower must have a certain quantity of confidence - at least I personally consider that it is not too likely that those prices will ever be experienced again, absent some kind of catastrophic failure. ...

The extra sad part is that I actually have a great deal more that have reached out to me after the fact asking how to get the money that they made on xxx blah crap boing, and they just need my help getting out all their gains... The only consistent thing other than them not buying Cornz is they all get mad at me like I am the one who stole their money when I have to explain the Nigerian prince scam to them....

 I don't hide my involvement as much as just not try to blatantly convert each and everyone I see at the grocery store. I feel I have put my time in and it was wasted at that. Luckily enough for whatever reason or reasons, I have found myself here, and it's another crazy top in what seems like a never-ending rollercoaster. I am truly amazed each and every day. Not that I haven't made stoopid and not so stoopid mistakes in abundance on my way to get here. Again, the fact that I am not greedy and have no need to "raise my nut" makes me feel like no matter what happens, it is going to be a great second half. (life that is) And that's just with current standings... Think about what is going to happen in the next 5 or 10 years that .63 will be worth exponentially more dollarinos. (hookers and blow for everyone!!!)

Just gotta wait a lil longer...
K

That is what part of the amazing aspect, even for newbies.. It is way more likely to be able to accumulate 0.1 BTC or perhaps 0.21 BTC, and so it is becoming more and more difficult to even get to 0.63 BTC...

We used to be able to get more than 1,000 satoshis for a dollar, and it seems to be getting more and more difficult to accomplish that.. so guys might have to figure out first getting to 100k satoshis, then perhaps a million and then work their way up to the higher amounts.  It depends on which part of the world some  of us are in, in terms of income and if we have a discretionary income.. and surely some younger folks who are students might legitimately feel that they have to work on their education.. so it can be quite difficult when some younger folks might not have much of an income and/or some folks from low earning places, they might recognize the value of accumulating bitcoin, yet they are also struggling to put together a lot of money.. even something like $100 per week is likely not even going to get a person 0.33 bitcoin after 10 years of accumulating... so it can be difficult to figure out how much to continue to buy it for those who have not yet started accumulating sats.
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