Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Come on Bitcoin, it’s crunch time now. Really is time to start showing strength. We have almost certain rate cuts this month, the end of QT. It’s time to build a base and head to new all time highs later this month.


@BigCheds
Bitcoin working on a reclaim of the August 2/3rd Swing Low

https://x.com/bigcheds/status/1963274231073866085


@CryptoJelleNL

There we go, Bitcoin is back at $111k - time for the first test.

As discussed yesterday, reclaiming this will be the first sign of strength in a while.

Above $120k; the real fun is back on the menu.

One step at a time.



https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1963154603807002767

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

wrong direction buddy we want 113.0k + not 111.9k

[JayJuanGee]

The way I look at Bitcoin, it's dropping most of the time. If I'd have accurate historic data I'd do the math, but if I'd have to take a guess, it feels like it's dropping 90% of the time. But when it goes up, it goes up much faster than it went down.

The hourly or minute data could show otherwise.

Thanks for digging up the data. This is indeed not what I expected. It makes me even more curious about hourly data.

Not what I expected either. Subjective impressions are deceitful. Kudos to @DirtyKeyboard for the reality check!

It seems to me that even if the actual data does not support what we thought it would, the practice of always making sure that we are prepared for UP is still a better practice, since the trend is still up and there are some ways of looking at the data in broader swaths that might be weekly that may also end up suggesting that there are short periods of time that bitcoin goes spurting up and then it never really returns back to its prior spurting up levels.

Surely it is hard to deny that the overall trend has been up.. but yeah I am also surprised what DirtyKeyboard got from the actual data, and maybe many of us want to tell him to stop actually giving us actual facts because the story of mostly down with a few ups make more sense in the scheme of so many normies getting locked into losing trading strategies, or failing/refusing to buy enough bitcoin to prepare for up when it ends up happening and/or selling too much bitcoin too soon.

Maybe the facts do not change the story that needs to be told, even though surely it does not seem to be correct to be telling stories that are factually untrue, even though the stories can frequently attempt to motivate folks  - not to trade and to front load your bitcoin investment as best as you are able to accomplish without overdoing it.

[edited out]

That's right. Not everybody will come and ask.
However that's exactly my barrier I put up before I even talk to them about dee cornz.

And also I never tell them to buy. Rather the opposite. I tell them who hard and painful it is to hodl through bear markets etc. I tell them they should view the invested money as lost. lol

Almost everyone accepts the challenge.
Maybe if it sounds too good to be true people won't believe it..?

I think that we have had this conversation previously, yet you are sparking me, again.

You claim to have a relatively high conversion rate?  So you have a decently large number of folks who actually invest into bitcoin and are able to stay in bitcoin for at least a whole cycle after talking with you?

Yes, I like to talk about the topic, because I think the way I did it the last 10 years yielded that high conversion rate.
Not one I still have contact to sold. However, only half of them are through more than one cycle.
Some points

I
...let people come and ask, I never go out and talk about the topic unasked, or worse try to convince anyone (I could never live with the responsibility when sth goes wrong)
...try to answer all their question to my best knowledge. That takes time and energy that you won't get back!

...separate my experience from theirs "Yes it went well in my case, but that doesn't mean it will be like that for you in the future"
...tell them all about the hard shit I went through by hodling. The negative info must be predominant! (That's also to secure your ass, so that they don't come back at you when price goes down.)

...never advertise the good stuff about BTC too much. They will find out themselves when they ask you their questions
They must understand that's not a get rich quick scheme (that's what most come for in the first place) but a long-term play, and that hodling BTC will cause a lot of pain...

Maybe you just have some kind of a natural in-person charm that causes normies to commit, since I cannot see anything that you do that is much different (or materially different) from what other guys seem to be doing - even though sure some guys might sell bitcoin as a get rich quick system, but that is probably not really any kind of a regular situation that guys are doing those kinds of things.

A nice chart:

x:https://x.com/AO_btc_analyst/status/1963200612088033579

That does look familiar.

and the US crisis can certainly trigger this:

X:https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1962964166643191839

On the other hand, we know very well that BTC is the best asset in the world, If it's going down, it doesn't hurt to buy cheaper and keep accumulating.

I recall years ago looking up Max Keisers alleged networth, and many websites were saying $5 million blah blah..   Now he is a billionaire?  Could be, since he could have had bought 10s of thousands of bitcoin and still only ended up with a few thousand and still end up being close to a billionaire... though even with today's prices, a person would still need to have around 9k bitcoin or more to be a billionaire..   I suppose it is possible.

One of the advantages of anyone getting bitcoin for under $1 would have had been the ability to accumulate a lot for very little and even if he shaved off profits along the way, he still might have had retained a lot of coins.

Even though I am going down such imaginary path, it is probably not too healthy to be doing so.. especially since it can be difficult to imagine.. yet there are surely some folks with those kinds of starting out paths, yet so many were not able to hang onto a whole hell of a lot of coins.. so even if we might imagine a person who might have had a million or maybe a few million of wealth, then it is not far fetched to consider that they might throw something like $100k into various investments.. Perhaps... so they could have had still sold quite a few coins along the way and still have a lot of coins many years later.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

I recall years ago looking up Max Keisers alleged networth, and many websites were saying $5 million blah blah..   Now he is a billionaire?  Could be, since he could have had bought 10s of thousands of bitcoin and still only ended up with a few thousand and still end up being close to a billionaire... though even with today's prices, a person would still need to have around 9k bitcoin or more to be a billionaire..   I suppose it is possible.

One of the advantages of anyone getting bitcoin for under $1 would have had been the ability to accumulate a lot for very little and even if he shaved off profits along the way, he still might have had retained a lot of coins.

Even though I am going down such imaginary path, it is probably not too healthy to be doing so.. especially since it can be difficult to imagine.. yet there are surely some folks with those kinds of starting out paths, yet so many were not able to hang onto a whole hell of a lot of coins.. so even if we might imagine a person who might have had a million or maybe a few million of wealth, then it is not far fetched to consider that they might throw something like $100k into various investments.. Perhaps... so they could have had still sold quite a few coins along the way and still have a lot of coins many years later.

they way i look at it is as no one back then in <$1 days (2010? before me anyway) really had any idea as to what this was going to turn into. and when i started mining (mid 2011)  btc was like 10 bucks and it was a pain to sell through gox/dwolla etc. so the number of btc  was about as impressive as my folding@home stats in an abstract sort of way for a while. ie the number wasnt connected to actual money, as it were.   <--- lol

so considering how worthless most peps considered corn to be back in the day the fact that anyone would be expected to preserve and backup  a weirdly named file called wallet.dat in a weirdly named folder somewhere on yer PC back then in the <$1 days, well that may not of been a priority.

[JayJuanGee]

wrong direction buddy we want 113.0k + not 111.9k

You are correct.. that now cornz is knocking on the door of $113k - even though just a few days ago, we were knocking on the sub-$107k door - not enough to really feel comfortable that the local bottom is in, but at least a sign that it could be.

I recall years ago looking up Max Keisers alleged networth, and many websites were saying $5 million blah blah..   Now he is a billionaire?  Could be, since he could have had bought 10s of thousands of bitcoin and still only ended up with a few thousand and still end up being close to a billionaire... though even with today's prices, a person would still need to have around 9k bitcoin or more to be a billionaire..   I suppose it is possible.

One of the advantages of anyone getting bitcoin for under $1 would have had been the ability to accumulate a lot for very little and even if he shaved off profits along the way, he still might have had retained a lot of coins.

Even though I am going down such imaginary path, it is probably not too healthy to be doing so.. especially since it can be difficult to imagine.. yet there are surely some folks with those kinds of starting out paths, yet so many were not able to hang onto a whole hell of a lot of coins.. so even if we might imagine a person who might have had a million or maybe a few million of wealth, then it is not far fetched to consider that they might throw something like $100k into various investments.. Perhaps... so they could have had still sold quite a few coins along the way and still have a lot of coins many years later.

they way i look at it is as no one back then in <$1 days (2010? before me anyway) really had any idea as to what this was going to turn into. and when i started mining (mid 2011)  btc was like 10 bucks and it was a pain to sell through gox/dwolla etc. so the number of btc  was about as impressive as my folding@home stats in an abstract sort of way for a while. ie the number wasnt connected to actual money, as it were.   <--- lol

so considering how worthless most peps considered corn to be back in the day the fact that anyone would be expected to preserve and backup  a weirdly named file called wallet.dat in a weirdly named folder somewhere on yer PC back then in the <$1 days, well that may not of been a priority.

Even when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, there were some questions of liquidity, and surely liquidity has improved over the years....

maybe some guys might feel like a sucker if they were to buy 10k coins from someone else, and surely there was some mentality to mine the coins and then sell them to others for real money.. but then yeah, by the time I got in, the market was maturing a lot more than what I understand those earlier times..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24

Unfortunately, this thing never went away. I don't go to Twitter, but I understand that it's roiling on there.

🤕

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24

Unfortunately, this thing never went away. I don't go to Twitter, but I understand that it's roiling on there.

🤕

This is an interesting drama I must admit. Both sides make some pretty good points. I’m not sure the potential for a fork is there currently, but maybe it would heat up to that. I’m honestly not sure which side would win. In 2017 Core was able to push the narrative that BCH was the evil fork that was trying to destroy Bitcoin. Now I think Core is going to be painted as the guys who want to allow illegal images to be stored on the blockchain. I’m not sure this fork would go their way or which side would end up getting censored here this time. I do like the idea of Core having a catch phrase. Censor forums, not blockchains. LOL

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24

Unfortunately, this thing never went away. I don't go to Twitter, but I understand that it's roiling on there.

🤕

This is an interesting drama I must admit. Both sides make some pretty good points. I’m not sure the potential for a fork is there currently, but maybe it would heat up to that. I’m honestly not sure which side would win. In 2017 Core was able to push the narrative that BCH was the evil fork that was trying to destroy Bitcoin. Now I think Core is going to be painted as the guys who want to allow illegal images to be stored on the blockchain. I’m not sure this fork would go their way or which side would end up getting censored here this time. I do like the idea of Core having a catch phrase. Censor forums, not blockchains. LOL

From what I understand, they're taking the data carrier limit from 82 bytes to 100,000.

I think their strongest argument is it's a free market and a fee market. People should be able to store whatever they want if they're willing to pay the price.  And op_return is prunable, that would be the place to store things.

But the argument I hear the making most often is that the 'plebs' are too stupid to know why this is the right thing to do.

That one's a red flag for me. That's the exact same argument csw made.

That and the fact that they just basically told the rest of the community to fuck off. 

The whole thing smells to me to be honest.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24

Unfortunately, this thing never went away. I don't go to Twitter, but I understand that it's roiling on there.

🤕

This is an interesting drama I must admit. Both sides make some pretty good points. I’m not sure the potential for a fork is there currently, but maybe it would heat up to that. I’m honestly not sure which side would win. In 2017 Core was able to push the narrative that BCH was the evil fork that was trying to destroy Bitcoin. Now I think Core is going to be painted as the guys who want to allow illegal images to be stored on the blockchain. I’m not sure this fork would go their way or which side would end up getting censored here this time. I do like the idea of Core having a catch phrase. Censor forums, not blockchains. LOL

From what I understand, they're taking the data carrier limit from 82 bytes to 100,000.

I think their strongest argument is it's a free market and a fee market. People should be able to store whatever they want if they're willing to pay the price.  And op_return is prunable, that would be the place to store things.

But the argument I hear the making most often is that the 'plebs' are too stupid to know why this is the right thing to do.

That one's a red flag for me. That's the exact same argument csw made.

That and the fact that they just basically told the rest of the community to fuck off.  

The whole thing smells to me to be honest.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com