Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[cAPSLOCK]

<snip>
But at our current point I am quite confused.  

<snip>Even in the presence of all these things... the cycle continues.

Bitcoin does not care.

I agree with the confusion part, not 100% agree with the second, but don't disagree either...it just remains to be seen.
Some guy (who speaks a bit like the "mad hatter" from "Alice in wonderland") proudly predicts MSTR bankruptcy scenario in 2026.

I don't buy it necessarily, but MSTR gyrations is something bitcoin would have to endure at some point.
It may be at least moderately likely that bitcoin would at some point undergo a secular bear market, but I don't envision this happening until 8-10 tril in market cap (or maybe even higher).

It seems that a lot of hodlers are uncertain about the state of the market rn.

Ah... well if your disagreement with part 2 is about the cycle...  well... I disagree with what I said as well.    Or a significant part of me does.

I think the cycle must continue to influence the price, but in less dominant ways at least eventually.  I have a hard time imagining this cycle having the same swings as the past ones.  But I have been anticipating us breaking out of that for quite a while now.  So I suppose I am hedging my position.

I am still (more quietly) a true believer in an S curve and amazingly even to me, do not think we have seen the real leg up yet.

Samson Mow talks about an "omega candle".  I think hes probably onto something.  We will see...

[cAPSLOCK]

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin?

If MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop.

Plagiarism?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500

I think not. I would certainly hope offering publicly available information on a forum like this doesn't have to be accredited.  

It most certainly does.  We can be casual about it at times, but an editorial option with a link is different than a copypaste.

I see you took the advice from others...

[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.

What a legend 

Nah - just a person with patience and a vision...

Your vision (or would it be visions?) with bcash and bsv (ie bcash sv) did not go very well.

[ChartBuddy]

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[OgNasty]

The price is up nearly $4,000 in the last half a day and continues to rise. I like that… We seem to have broken the downtrend. There isn’t really any resistance between $113,500 and $117,000, so a move up from here would start to make this rally look pretty aggressive.

[ChartBuddy]

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[bangjoe]

The price is up nearly $4,000 in the last half a day and continues to rise. I like that… We seem to have broken the downtrend. There isn’t really any resistance between $113,500 and $117,000, so a move up from here would start to make this rally look pretty aggressive.

We are strong enough to survive in the attack last night yesterday, and Bitcoin returned, to the price level that will be made the strongest support.

Alright the trend will turn around, which September has always been a nightmare of the average, this time we will get a different experience.

[ChartBuddy]

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

Patiently watching and waiting……


@CryptoJelleNL
It's so over.

For bears.

BTC


https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1963940496083964007

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[cAPSLOCK]

Adam Back weighs in on the current kerfuffle.  His opinion on this has not been super clear, but I think that is partly due to him working through it and partly due to him being able to handle nuance unlike most of the people arguing back and forth past each other.

https://twitter-thread.com/t/1963830548012372324

Bitcoin is owned by humanity, the protocol developers are stewards, and need consensus from users to change it materially. bitcoin is about money, spam has no place in the timechain. what defaults the bitcoin core project puts in the reference client matter in this.

in may there were 88mil JPEGs in the chain, now 4 months later, there are 105mil JPEGS, a 20% increase. in may 7000btc fees had been paid, at $100k btc that's $700m or an average of $8 per JPEG. they are primarily in taproot inscriptions. (@BitMEX Research data)

protocol rules are enforced by economic nodes, miners are just service providers; miners cannot change protocol rules. (everyone learned that counter-intuitive fact during the block-size wars). proof of work, hashrate and bitcoin price come from the real world. there are signals

the block-size war was won by the market, users set the price in the market. (the protocol can measure consensus valid hashrate which reacts to price. users said NO via the economic force of the market. miners followed, as they are just service providers)

to prevail, we have to make economic sense (or we work against our own objectives), and laser focus on outcome: where is the spam coming from? the JPEG industry JPEG sellers & buyers, VCs funding it and miners collecting $250m/year (very rough estimate) from the fees.

that's about 1.5% of the fee market. note fees are not simple: blocks are not always full, the spam displaced other transaction fees, lets pick a crude estimate 1% of excess fees from spam vs transactions. if fees are persistently higher miners invest in buying more ASICs, and

push the hashrate and input costs up, so the incremental net revenue would be less say 0.5%. if a given miner makes 20% profit, then maybe the spam industry is 0.1% of their profit once the hashrate settles higher. not really something they should focus on, as it also is bad

for bitcoin - prices new users out of owning a UTXO, displaces economic activity that is part of bitcoin's value proposition. yes JPEG spam is economic activity but it's extremely wasteful, they can store JPEGs in other places which are optimized for that like imgur, ipfs etc.

so you would think that miners and pools actually would not want to take too much negative PR (public miners anyway where that can impact their share price). for a 0.1% bump in profit, you could easily lose that to soft-factors - miners switching pools, hurting btc price, hurting

bitcoin use cases, adoption etc. so it looks like it should not take too much of a nudge to add friction and get the miners to do less of it. some explaining, some outreach to miners to switch to pools that don't mine JPEGs. and maybe some actual economic lobbying by fee paying

users, to deprive pools processing spam of transaction fees. so far it seems hard to do without creating centralization risks of it's own, but as a sketch wallet sends minimum network fee and rest of dynamic fees to 1 of n multisig of pool addresses that reject JPEGs.

that could be enough to make pools not filtering JPEGs even short-term unprofitable vs filtering. the centralizing issues are: solo miners and small pools maybe not in the list, but NB there aren't many pools. and sv2 and datum can be larger without chosing blocks. i guess

that could be used to bypass the pool preference, or pools in sv2/datum are "trust the pool" model, the pool could reject pool shares with JPEGs (or anything else they wanted to block), which cuts both ways.

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[ChartBuddy]

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[asUHWEceyc]

I recall years ago looking up Max Keisers alleged networth, and many websites were saying $5 million blah blah..   Now he is a billionaire?  Could be, since he could have had bought 10s of thousands of bitcoin and still only ended up with a few thousand and still end up being close to a billionaire... though even with today's prices, a person would still need to have around 9k bitcoin or more to be a billionaire..   I suppose it is possible.

bro prob made a mint off auroracoin and keisercoin =D

One of the advantages of anyone getting bitcoin for under $1 would have had been the ability to accumulate a lot for very little and even if he shaved off profits along the way, he still might have had retained a lot of coins.

think of gavin types, who, reluctantly and with contempt, prob still control several odd thou or more

That and the fact that they just basically told the rest of the community to fuck off. 

The whole thing smells to me to be honest.

maybe 0.5.3 is the one true Bit Coin after all?!