Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

Additionally, for all those certain of a 70% crash soon due to the "cycles", where is this crash going to come from? It doesn't appear that retail has come anywhere near Bitcoin this cycle, so they can't cause another crash. There has also been no crazy greed driven run up in price, it's been very controlled. ETFs and treasury companies have been the only substantial demand this run and they don't look like they have been overextending to me.

There is always an end to an era and the era of crash two years after halving has come to an end. Like you said, institutions have entered the business as report has it that they control over 12% of Bitcoin and don't seem satisfied with such numbers. Furthermore, a lot of retails have realized the games the rich are playing with their growing interest in Bitcoin, hence are not willing to liquidate their Bitcoin easily. Therefore, I do not believe we will experience 70% crash in price anymore, we could see corrections and gradual growth just as we have experienced in the Q3.

I agree...I just think that 'short term' which can be anything from 1 year to 2 years, IMHO...is gonna be the result of say a recession. Everyone WANTS and knows they

should buy stocks/land/btc in a recession but the reason again is mostly EVERYONE has been over-extended finance wise from regular folks to corporations of the

rich etc. This is due, IMHO, to the result in current USA and maybe World economies.....70% of all of that is consumer spniending.

So btc/crypt being 24/7 you can dump on emergincies and cc debt and you lose your job etc, etc...it will take a hit first

or look at it another way my house value goes to 1/2 value like last recession. Real world wise you are asset rich in a market of declining assets and or employment
kee
as such. Sucks. But again this is short term. Compared to say bonds in a recession IMHO or in my area $14k farmland dumping to $7k etc, etc.....btc crypto will do

much better then bonds in the usa again IMHO. I mean if people have less $$$ to speculate on or ie keep their lifestyle...thus the consumer spending leading the

recession change.....do you think people are going to put $$$ in bonds at 4% to 5% with inflation 2/3rds of that? er NOPE not this time around

people will park their $$$ into land/gold/real estate/btc/crypto other things on the threat of inflation and this keeps up or goes up after the recession

but again, jobs, money, inflation, bad gov't choices on debt and taxes, (me) I just don't see the real world with a usa recession bailing out the usa debt at 7 to 1 ratio

as the only choice. The 24/7 selling or buying of btc when things go south will bite btc/crypto hardest at the front end  but if btc/crypto can't keep up with 4-5% bonds

as an example...we are all dorked anyway...so it is HODL and buy time in the cycle again coming up.

damn....diamond hands.....no trophy wife...no boat...no 2nd house/cabin.....all false pretenses anyway...i could tell folks my btc worth but i'd still live like a retired

schoolteacher with my 2012 ford fusion anyway...so to advertise such to the oppiste sex would be false flag pretense anyway

alas BORING allowed me to HODL btc/crypto and BORING lets me continue to HODL btc/crypto .....what a nerd loop that is.

brad

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

Additionally, for all those certain of a 70% crash soon due to the "cycles", where is this crash going to come from? It doesn't appear that retail has come anywhere near Bitcoin this cycle, so they can't cause another crash. There has also been no crazy greed driven run up in price, it's been very controlled. ETFs and treasury companies have been the only substantial demand this run and they don't look like they have been overextending to me.

There is always an end to an era and the era of crash two years after halving has come to an end. Like you said, institutions have entered the business as report has it that they control over 12% of Bitcoin and don't seem satisfied with such numbers. Furthermore, a lot of retails have realized the games the rich are playing with their growing interest in Bitcoin, hence are not willing to liquidate their Bitcoin easily. Therefore, I do not believe we will experience 70% crash in price anymore, we could see corrections and gradual growth just as we have experienced in the Q3.

I agree...I just think that 'short term' which can be anything from 1 year to 2 years, IMHO...is gonna be the result of say a recession. Everyone WANTS and knows they

should buy stocks/land/btc in a recession but the reason again is mostly EVERYONE has been over-extended finance wise from regular folks to corporations of the

rich etc. This is due, IMHO, to the result in current USA and maybe World economies.....70% of all of that is consumer spniending.

So btc/crypt being 24/7 you can dump on emergincies and cc debt and you lose your job etc, etc...it will take a hit first

or look at it another way my house value goes to 1/2 value like last recession. Real world wise you are asset rich in a market of declining assets and or employment
kee
as such. Sucks. But again this is short term. Compared to say bonds in a recession IMHO or in my area $14k farmland dumping to $7k etc, etc.....btc crypto will do

much better then bonds in the usa again IMHO. I mean if people have less $$$ to speculate on or ie keep their lifestyle...thus the consumer spending leading the

recession change.....do you think people are going to put $$$ in bonds at 4% to 5% with inflation 2/3rds of that? er NOPE not this time around

people will park their $$$ into land/gold/real estate/btc/crypto other things on the threat of inflation and this keeps up or goes up after the recession

but again, jobs, money, inflation, bad gov't choices on debt and taxes, (me) I just don't see the real world with a usa recession bailing out the usa debt at 7 to 1 ratio

as the only choice. The 24/7 selling or buying of btc when things go south will bite btc/crypto hardest at the front end  but if btc/crypto can't keep up with 4-5% bonds

as an example...we are all dorked anyway...so it is HODL and buy time in the cycle again coming up.

damn....diamond hands.....no trophy wife...no boat...no 2nd house/cabin.....all false pretenses anyway...i could tell folks my btc worth but i'd still live like a retired

schoolteacher with my 2012 ford fusion anyway...so to advertise such to the oppiste sex would be false flag pretense anyway

alas BORING allowed me to HODL btc/crypto and BORING lets me continue to HODL btc/crypto .....what a nerd loop that is.

brad

Short term crashes, yes always a possibility. However, they are meaningless in modern finance because, as demonstrated during covid, “no matter what it takes” is always activated and the result of that is rapid expansion of the monetary supply and then hello Cantillon Effect.

In fact, that monetary expansion could be argued to precede any crash in the first place these days, causing that crash not to happen. The US fiscal expansion (and some Monetary games) over the last few years might have even done that. Regardless of how we get there of course the end destination is asset inflationary.

Anyway, due to the lack of any froth this Bitcoin run. I don’t think any substantial down movements will be any worse than that experienced by stocks. Time will tell.

Boring is definitely the way.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Short term crashes, yes always a possibility. However, they are meaningless in modern finance because, as demonstrated during covid, “no matter what it takes” is always activated and the result of that is rapid expansion of the monetary supply and then hello Cantillon Effect.
In fact, that monetary expansion could be argued to precede any crash in the first place these days, causing that crash not to happen. The US fiscal expansion (and some Monetary games) over the last few years might have even done that. Regardless of how we get there of course the end destination is asset inflationary.

Anyway, due to the lack of any froth this Bitcoin run, so far. I don’t think any substantial down movements will be any worse than that experienced by stocks. Time will tell.
Boring is definitely the way.

FTFY.

You made some good points in regards to our new world order, which were partially demonstrated through Covid and also there is more and more control over all of finances, which stable coins are likely going to be another route to further attempts at control and dollar expansion - or at least try to allow the dollar to continue to survive, even though it is on its last legs, but certain trickery can allow it to continue to last, dominate and to suck up the value of other fiats through its ongoing dominance in digital format that is a bit more modern ways of control.

We likely have to see how quarter 4 of this year plays out in order to see if any blow off top ends up playing out, or if stable (and boring) is going to continue
.,.. and you are likely correct that if too much boring continues through quarter 4, then it becomes more difficult to trigger any kind of large and/or meaningful bitcoin crash - even if we might have some behind the scene attempts to manipulate (and paperize bitcoin supplies), but those fuck twats who are manipulating bitcoin supply might end up getting blown out of the water to the extent that not all the players holding bitcoin are going to want to cooperate with them. .and do we get some kind of a behind the scene bail out or maybe Blackrock takes over Coinbase when Coinbase fucks up custody.  

It is hard to know how matters will play out, since I am not going to concede that shenanigans are not happening, just like Sam Bankman Freid likely was some kind of a plant that facilitated the taking of money and an attack on "crypto".. and the FTX might not have had played out how the powers that be wanted, yet it was still allowed to facilitate some of the agenda of the powers that be in regards to shutting down 3 "crypto-friendly" banks and other kinds of chaoses and injustices that ended up playing out.

Edit:  I had meant to say that at least in our current BTC correction from the last few days, we are getting a wee bit extra correction from that shitcoin ethereum (gotten a correction from right around 0.043 BTC in the last 6 weeks to currently right around 0.036 BTC, even though it would be nice if it were to go back below 0.020 BTC as it had gotten down to in April 2025 or even lower if possible below 0.017), even though it is hard to know if the current correction of ethereum being greater than BTC is just temporary since pumping of shitcoins surely should continue to be considered as froth, even though various aspects of the USA government have gotten more friendly to shitcoins, and even grifting upon them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Searing]

[edited out]

Short term crashes, yes always a possibility. However, they are meaningless in modern finance because, as demonstrated during covid, “no matter what it takes” is always activated and the result of that is rapid expansion of the monetary supply and then hello Cantillon Effect.
In fact, that monetary expansion could be argued to precede any crash in the first place these days, causing that crash not to happen. The US fiscal expansion (and some Monetary games) over the last few years might have even done that. Regardless of how we get there of course the end destination is asset inflationary.

Anyway, due to the lack of any froth this Bitcoin run, so far. I don’t think any substantial down movements will be any worse than that experienced by stocks. Time will tell.
Boring is definitely the way.

FTFY.

You made some good points in regards to our new world order, which were partially demonstrated through Covid and also there is more and more control over all of finances, which stable coins are likely going to be another route to further attempts at control and dollar expansion - or at least try to allow the dollar to continue to survive, even though it is on its last legs, but certain trickery can allow it to continue to last, dominate and to suck up the value of other fiats through its ongoing dominance in digital format that is a bit more modern ways of control.

We likely have to see how quarter 4 of this year plays out in order to see if any blow off top ends up playing out, or if stable (and boring) is going to continue
.,.. and you are likely correct that if too much boring continues through quarter 4, then it becomes more difficult to trigger any kind of large and/or meaningful bitcoin crash - even if we might have some behind the scene attempts to manipulate (and paperize bitcoin supplies), but those fuck twats who are manipulating bitcoin supply might end up getting blown out of the water to the extent that not all the players holding bitcoin are going to want to cooperate with them. .and do we get some kind of a behind the scene bail out or maybe Blackrock takes over Coinbase when Coinbase fucks up custody.  

It is hard to know how matters will play out, since I am not going to concede that shenanigans are not happening, just like Sam Bankman Freid likely was some kind of a plant that facilitated the taking of money and an attack on "crypto".. and the FTX might not have had played out how the powers that be wanted, yet it was still allowed to facilitate some of the agenda of the powers that be in regards to shutting down 3 "crypto-friendly" banks and other kinds of chaoses and injustices that ended up playing out.

Edit:  I had meant to say that at least in our current BTC correction from the last few days, we are getting a wee bit extra correction from that shitcoin ethereum (gotten a correction from right around 0.043 BTC in the last 6 weeks to currently right around 0.036 BTC, even though it would be nice if it were to go back below 0.020 BTC as it had gotten down to in April 2025 or even lower if possible below 0.017), even though it is hard to know if the current correction of ethereum being greater than BTC is just temporary since pumping of shitcoins surely should continue to be considered as froth, even though various aspects of the USA government have gotten more friendly to shitcoins, and even grifting upon them.

The 'supposed' legislation this fall in the USA saying that you no longer have to pay income tax on what you mined and only have to pay 15% capital gains on what you sold.

With also, say, you keeping deductions of 25% off equipment like ASICs and also other biz expenses. Anyway, which means I take a chance on an ASIC mining in a data hall

again..just put electric in it and above deductions..hell, that is much, much better then what I did before 2019 when I quit big ASIC mining as such.

IF that goes through likely will get the new block,inc Proto miner (see bitcointalk thread) made in usa only tax is 7% from the county it is made in Geaorgia

open source and upgrade-able...and NO 57.4% China Tariff on ASICs to the USA. So hell, if that happens all what I said before is moot. Bitcoin/crypto will go boom!

I mean people are nuts for btc lotto miners...with above and deductions against income for business and electric..hell...everybody and his brother will get back in and mine

and have no reason to do nothing but HODL with only expenses. The worse it would get in a recession the more mining would boom vs 4-5% on say bonds.

I wish. Check out the Proto miner group on bitcointalk if more info or just google it.....IF above does not happen..ie..same old same old on taxed on what you mine

i will stay out of ASICs. Just saying a bit of hope in all above on mining for us that have 'lost the way'

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Me realising Q4 begins next week.

🚀

October has historically been quite the month.  It seems every year around Halloween the market experiences a rally.  Hopefully this year will be no different.  I know I'm crossing my fingers for it.  Things seem to be looking up a bit as well as we rise off the recent lows but things could break down quickly when it ends so remain cautious.  I don't believe in the supercycle, but I do believe we'll see a multi-year top sometime between now and Christmas.  How high that top will be is anyone's guess, but if we get close to $200K, I just might spend the rest of my life smiling.

and in your opinion? if its not smiling then than its smiling in a few years?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Findingnemo]

Even you, Findingnemo, are getting into OG status with nearly two cycles under your belt, and it seems to me that the first cycle is the most difficult, yet it still frequently will take a couple of cycles for guys to really start to get to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, unless they were able to front load their bitcoin investment at some point in their first cycle.

I might be able to relate to you, since I came to bitcoin (got started in bitcoin)  about 1 cycle before you, and I also came to bitcoin at or near the top of the cycle... Mine entry into bitcoin was November 2013 - even though my forum registration was February 2014.

I did the terrible mistake that one can make, I was supposed to enter the market in 2014 itself around the same time period you entered but I wasn't so sure about bitcoin because I had no idea what it is and people who told me about bitcoin isn't that much clear about what it is, they just created an image like bitcoin is investment which is one of the reason I had my doubts and went huge on other path that end up terrible again my huge capital went down not just to zero but to negative that is where I lost a cycle or else I would have been sitting with a bigger stash.

But, hey... Better late than never...

So my first cycle isn't very shaky, I knew what I missed and I swore that I am not gonna make the same mistake.

And finally, JJG claiming me to be OG and becoming legendary on the same day should be some kind of sign for all in...before the UPtober.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

~snip~
#HODL

EDIT2:
Just tried to stalk myself (my bitcointalk nickname) through chatGPT, in some more advanced and intensive ways, and i pretty much failed gaining any useful, OpSec relevant information. Of couse, i was (more or less) careful, having a historic background as a former internet hacker. (Did i already mention that i miss the sound of 56k modems, but i still dream about them sometimes?)
This was also due to the fact that Theymos seemed to have protected the forum against intensive parsing via bots and engines.
Good work!

EDIT3: re-edited this post a couple of times, as usual 

You're not the only one, that sound has remained something that's hard to get rid of, and I think I hear it sometimes. Moreover, I decided to keep my modem, and your post reminded me to check if it's still where I put it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1971110768688103645?s=46

[LoyceV]

Did i already mention that i miss the sound of 56k modems, but i still dream about them sometimes?

That sounds fun to use as a ringtone.

[Paashaas]

End of the month.

Almost weekend.

Low volume, bearish sentiment.

Stocks/gold up.

Perfect condition for a massive red candle.

[philipma1957]

End of the month.

Almost weekend.

Low volume, bearish sentiment.

Stocks/gold up.

Perfect condition for a massive red candle.

I got some more dip.

Silvers up
Coppers up

I will be selling more copper on Saturday.

Things are moving nicely.

[OutOfMemory]

Did i already mention that i miss the sound of 56k modems, but i still dream about them sometimes?

That sounds fun to use as a ringtone.

I only wait until i have some spare time to make this brilliant idea real  
Thanks.