I was going through X and I saw this news, I don't know if I will say it's a speculation or not, Tom Lee forecast that bitcoin potential rises of price to $200k to $250k by year end,
My Question, is that, is it possible for bitcoin to hit $200k for the remaining two months, or his forecast is a fallacy?
https://x.com/i/trending/1980064729587470841?t=iMsvnIb1nSn-01gtV1tujg&s=09I do not know but I know that
bitcoin is going to $1 million one day. I do not like all these short term speculations.
Bitcoin getting to $1 million "one day" is quite a vague prognostication too.
Probably the soonest scenario for bitcoin to go to $1 million would be around 6-ish months, yet I have a hard time believing that it is going to take longer than a couple of cycles for it to touch upon $1 million - even though staying there might be another thing and even though
my projection of the 200-WMA (bottom price) ONLY first starts to show $1 million for the 200-WMA around late 2038 or early 2039, which seems like quite a while into the future, even though the 200-WMA tends to be thought of as a bottom price, too.
https://x.com/jack/status/1979880332175495586Jack Dorsey says bitcoin is not crypto.
We needed a reminder didn't we
What is this crypto stuff anyway?
Pushback? Thousands of replies.
David Schwarz - one of the guys behind ripple (the shittiest of shitcoins IMO), seems to disagree.
Or maybe not: I didn't investigate too deeply.
bitcoin is not a “crypto”. if we use the word “crypto” as an abbreviation for cryptocurrency, this may be correct, but essentially, ‘crypto’ means “secret, hidden.” so cryptocurrency will be an appropriate definition for bitcoin.
furthermore, cryptography is the general term for mathematical algorithms and methods used to keep information and data secure. calling bitcoin a crypto or cryptography is like calling mozart music. we can't say it's completely wrong, but it's a bit odd.
What you're saying is strictly correct, but, IMHO, it confuses things and does not help in this discussion. When you visit Yahoo Finance and click on "Crypto", you don't expect to see an explanation of SHA-256, do you? You go there to check the prices of Bitcoin and possibly other cryptocurrencies.
Crypto = cryptocurrency in this discussion -- I think we can all agree on this.
Some of my disputes related to the use of the term crypto is both its vagueness in regards to reference - meaning is the person talking about bitcoin or something else, and there tends to be a need to specify, which sometimes the lack of specificity is due to sloppiness, and other times it is done on purpose or even for a person to try to sound smart so they use the term crypto rather then either specifying bitcoin or specifying what they are talking about exactly.
There can be times in which it is perfectly acceptable to use the term crypto especially if we know the reference or how it is being used.. so maybe there is not so much progress that is made in terms of clarifying the semantics, since people are going to continue to use it in a variety of ways, even though people can be and even should be called out upon their use of such term if they are using it in vague ways, whether they do it on purpose or not.
By the way, there also could be some ways in which the term crypto is used in order to purposefully be vague, even to do so without trying to deceive anyone, except perhaps in a friendly joke context. Usually joking with "crypto" is not so friendly or light-hearted because there is a bit of seriousness with the subject matter and an ongoing existence of a battle between bitcoin and other assets/currencies and the presence of a lot of sometimes subtle battle tools, which may well mean that we might not always know if some other person might be on the right side of the battle or if they might be engaging in an attack, which is also part of the current and even ongoing skepticism about Saylor in terms of considering whither he is "with us" or if he might somehow be playing a long con to attack bitcoin.
Many of us longer term bitcoiners are also aware that bitcoin is for friends and enemies, so it is not necessary that "we" are going to agree the extent to which another person is a "true bitcoiner" or "one of us," if might just have differing views about bitcoin and its use or if he might be outrightly attacking bitcoin.
We don't necessarily need to agree - even though you are likely to continue to find me responding back if I don't appreciate that the term crypto might be being used sloppily and/or potentially with purposeful intentionality that I consider to be unfair attacks on bitcoin. Sure some attacks on bitcoin may well be fair attacks, especially if some of the criticisms might be made in objective ways and/or with consideration of work-arounds or giving context to why some of the negative aspects of bitcoin might not necessarily be considered as a negative in all contexts... so frequently, each of us might have to choose certain balances in our own lives that might relate to position size, especially if we might believe that some aspects of bitcoin could undermine some of the value propositions that we might consider to be important in regard to our own situation and how much exposure we might want to have to bitcoin based on various attributes of bitcoin and how our perception of those attributes might change with the passage of time.
For sure, even coiners can become confused and even WOers can become confused.
I don't really put LFC into the "confused" category, even though I would suggest that his ongoing bearish rhetoric likely ends up contributing to confusion and/or adding to confusion, even if he might end up being correct. And, sure he has a right to say what he says, since surely we don't all need to agree in these here parts, and sometimes we do need guys like LFC who are willing to say what he really thinks (feels) even if it is unpopular with some of us... so yeah, the fact that he says it and even is willing to bet upon it, shows a decent amount of conviction regarding what he is saying and he is not merely saying it, just to say it or to be unnecessarily provocative.
Of course, anyone has the freedom to say whatever they want. Perhaps I'm projecting to others my own way of seeing things... When I consider what Bitcoin has given me over the years, in terms of complete financial independence and total freedom to do almost anything I've ever dreamed of, I find it insulting and ungrateful to say that "I'm very disappointed" by its performance because of a 20% dip (now 10%), seeing that it's at 6 digits USD for months and expected to rise significantly. I don't know, maybe it's just me...
You are not really going to get argument from me in terms of some of the frustration that exists when we are dealing with what seems to be flip-flopping of emotions or even over-reactions... . .yet, I suppose if all of us were to be calm, cool and collected, then we might not get too many meaningful posts in these here parts.
There can be some frustration since it seems that longer term bitcoiners should know better, yet at the same time, even some small variance in our personal factors could drastically change our perspectives, and really, there are so many newbies ongoingly coming into bitcoin, so it can sometimes take newer bitcoiners a while to go through some of the stages and the phases that several of us have had to go through.
By the way, even with LFC, maybe he ends up getting in and out of decently good sizes of his BTC, or maybe he get's in and out of merely 5-10% of his holdings, and so even though he ends up being quite vocal about what he is doing, he still is largely (maybe even 70-90% in the ballpark of doing the same as other longer term HODLers, yet he is just being a bit more vocal about it and maybe even engaging in conduct that other longer term holders consider to be quite premature and/or not necessary... sometimes, also, what he is doing will lead newbies into "doing what LFC is doing, when they should be concentrating on their accumulation for 1-2 cycles or more before they even consider deploying some variation of an LFC move.
Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.
There may well be some of us, who ONLY got as far as we got in bitcoin based on a whole hell-of-a-lot of luck - meaning that we might not even have any clue about what is bitcoin or why it's number had been going up, yet at the same time, we ended up putting a decent amount of investment into it, and then it largely grew beyond expectation to contribute to our ending up getting emotional about an investment that we only coincidentally fell into and circumstances contributed to our ongoing continuance in HODLing it.
I am not even necessarily talking about bitcoin, since many of us likely recall the story of the supposed OG who decided to sell 80k worth of bitcoin in order to supposedly engage in estate planning, which hardly makes any sense - except in a scenario where the guy had already died or is getting close to dying, so he is worried about the logistics in trying to pass down 80k bitcoin... so sometimes there can be some behind the scenes dynamics that are motivating guys to go down paths that hardly make any sense to some of us, and we might even speculate that they are failing/refusing to account for
their 9 individual factors, even though we happen to just not know enough about how they are weighing certain ones of their 9 individual factors, and perhaps what they are doing ends up making sense rather than being the mere appearance that seems to support that they were being too emotional in their reactions and/or their articulation of how they see the bitcoin situation (including how much emphasis they seem to be giving to one of the 9 individual factors related to their own assessment of bitcoin prices as compared to other (non-bitcoin) places that they could put their time, energies and/or value).
Again, I don't disagree with the above. I used the word "luck" loosely, even for those of us who
do have a clue about what Bitcoin is. Luck, in the sense that many of us have reached a stage where our lives are sorted, at least financially, all thanks to Bitcoin.
Surely, in retrospect there are some of us who likely ended up on the receiving end of strategies that mainly focused on accumulating and holding bitcoin without losing them.. so surely a combination of luck and perseverance and even being in the right place at the right time in regards to our ability to identify advantages in deploying our time, energies and value towards bitcoin.
Even some guys who had a lot of similar knowledge may well could have had made some small mistakes and/or divergences that greatly impacted their outcomes. Many of us likely have heard the statistics that if we were not "in" bitcoin for something like 10-15 days out of the whole year (and not even knowing which of those days and/or when they would come), we would have had either not been profitable in bitcoin, and/or we may well have experienced negative outcomes in bitcoin (in regards to price).
Anything could have gone wrong, but all the pieces seem to have fallen into the right place to bring us to a good position.
For sure. There are things that could go wrong in terms of our own personal execution, and also things that could have gone wrong in terms of macro factors (largely outside of our abilities to directly influence).
Surely, part of the reason that we might not go "all in," and we try to figure out a personally tailored adequate position size relates to our views on our own execution risks and macro risks. Many of us have probably come to recognize that we might not even be able to recognize and appreciate our own boundaries and limitations, yet if we had ended up going overboard in our bitcoin investment, then we could have had ended up partially or completely reckt, even if we had been correct in various aspects of our assumptions, presumptions and assessments in regards to bitcoin.
The same is true for newer entrants or guys who are just getting into bitcoin. There are likely needs to identify and tailor largely reasaonable approaches to bitcoin, and there might not even be any kind of exact perfection, even though there still likely would be trade-offs between those who were whimpy versus aggressive versus those who over did it in their approach.
For sure, even those whom might have had carried out overly whimpy strategies that had started 7-12 years ago, they still may well find themselves in a position in which their persistence still ended up paying off, even if they also can simultaneously recognize that they were overly whimpy in their approach to bitcoin. There is no way to go back in time and increase the past level of whimpiness, even though there can be ways to learn from the past, and hopefully learn a fitting lesson rather than sometimes repeating similar mistakes while under a belief that actual learning had taken place and had been sufficiently applied. Many of us likely do recognize that many of us are creatures of habit so we may well end up repeatedly making similar, if not the same, mistakes of the past, even when we might consider ourselves to have had been learning from our mistakes.
And, yeah, sometimes we either cannot see our mistakes and we might even be ongoingly arguing in ways that whitewash our past mistakes.
I just can't help but appreciate that. I would never say that "I'm very disappointed". On the contrary! Even if Bitcoin dipped to $50k (which it won't, and you will win your bet), I'd say that I'd still feel ecstatic --
"Disappointed" does seem quite a bit of a princesa characterization, since overall bitcoin continues to outperform all other assets, including gold, even though some folks seem to be distracted by gold's recent outperformance of bitcoin - and surely we have to likely recognize that from time to time, there are going to continue to be assets that are outperforming bitcoin, and such outperformance could even persist for several years.
Well? one thing is winning the bet and another thing relates to if we end up either entering some underperformance that takes us into another bear market or some other negative bitcoin price repercussions.
Surely, the longer that we have been in bitcoin then the more of a "profits" cushion we have with our bitcoin holdings, and in recent times, I have been frequently inclined towards asserting that anyone who had been regularly accumulating bitcoin for 4 years is likely to have an average cost per BTC that is at or around the 200-WMA (currently at $54k), and surely if we have bee regularly accumulating bitcoin longer than 4 years, then our average cost per BTC should be even lower than the 200-WMA... and of course, recent entrants into bitcoin may well have average costs per BTC that are all over the place, even if they are ONLY buying and not trading, yet sometimes they can still end up with a lot of variance in both how much they bought and then the extent to which they might start to feel pressure based on their cost per BTC and the fact that they could end up having their holdings going into the negative... so they might not really be sure how to deal with their holdings, and even several of us might have differing recommendation, including my own ongoing recommendation tends to gravitate towards suggesting that guys should be striving to build their bitcoin holdings through ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying (not selling) for a whole cycle, at least, before they might consider the extent to which they might want to switch to some other strategy for either ongoing accumulation or just the maintenance of their holdings.
Edit: By the way. Regarding your $54k number... It is not impossible to go down that low, but it would be quite a black swan kind of scenario since currently the 200-WMA is at $54k. I am having a hard time considering that the 200-WMA would be any less than $58k in 3 months.
Yet, even if we were to get a bear market kind of crash, it should take several months to get down towards touching upon the 200-WMA... and yeah, of course, something in macro or even specifically in regards to bitcoin could doom and gloomily blow up.. . so I am thinking that if we were to go below and stay below $80k for anything more than a 1-2 day flash crash, I would lose a lot of confidence in my ability to win my bet with LFC - even though, it would not be over until it is over, so I probably would not pay him in advance, unless there are real dire factual circumstances that support nearly no way that I would be able to win the bet... which surely none of us really would want that, even probably LFC.
Bitcoin has performed outstandingly over the years, and certainly beyond my expectations, when I was buying it for $200/coin.
[...]
Even those of us who had gotten into bitcoin mostly prior to 2016 are not necessarily going to have costs per coin below $500, especially if we were striving to build the size of our bitcoin holdings rather than getting worked up about our average cost per bitcoin, even though there could be some guys who were able to achieve such. I am pretty sure that you mentioned to me (perhaps privately) to having costs per BTC that are quite a bit higher than $200 per coin, even though you were able to pickup some coins for around that price.
ia m pretty sure that my various relatively lame attempts to pick up BTC in 2015 still resulted in many of those coins with average costs of around $250 per coin, even though these days, I am gravitating towards proclaiming that my cost per BTC are closer to $5k - since I probably can make a lot of similar points with a higher average cost per coin, even though surely there still can be some factual matters that relate to getting some coins at those various lower prices, even though the overall average might be considered as higher..
There is also a bit of an ease in calculating $1k per coin, even though $250 per coin would be in a 4x better position, and $200 per coin would be in a 5x better position, and some extent the profits might not even matter so much as compared with just trying to figure out how to consider managing coins based on how many have been accumulated, so then assessing their value, whether some of the coins (or perhaps the whole holdings) might be considered 5x in profits, 20x in profits, 100x in profits or even 550x in profits which would be more or less the case for coins accumulated for around $200 each.
There used to be quite a few guys in these here parts who also had been claiming to have had bought and sold BTC several times and then proclaiming their cost basis to be at or near zero, and so therefore claiming that they are totally "playing with house money," and I have not seen those kinds of representations in recent times, even though I also was not completely sure what benefits come from claiming that our holdings have zero basis.. which frequently would cause me to consider that the person making such claims did not have very much conviction in bitcoin if they are trying to proclaim that they are ONLY playing with house money and they are not ready, willing and/or able to put more money into it.... even though surely, I might be being too judgmental sine there can be circumstances in which it makes sense to characterize (and practice) your bitcoin holdings in such a way... especially for guys who might not have any income or guys who get income through BTC.
OK last one -
I'm in on this😁😁
I'm betting 0.0005 that BTC will reach ATH before April.
Last one..
hahahahahaha.
Early bird gets the work, so to speak.
Lol...it's 'early bird gets the
worm'...albeit a bird still has to do some "work" to get it.
Hmmmm
Good eye. Good eye.
That was a typo.. I did fix the original.
One more green day and the naysayers will start talking about the next ATH. Aren't you tired of being manipulated?
Not if it helps some to DCA at the lower price
.
You only get nervous if either don't have a firm conviction, need money sooner than later or are over-invested (leverage, too high allocation, etc.).
Newer bitcoiner might not be accustomed to such UPs and downs, yet it seems that most bitcoiners who have been through at least a whole cycle should have already been through these kinds of happenings in bitcoinlandia.
Frequent manipulations are par for the course... in other words, to be expected.
£94,500
Huh? What is that? And, what does it mean?
You must be talking about: €
Not: £
AmInotRite?
Poll
