Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I took you off ignore to watch you and jjg have a net fit fight.

It's like mud-wrestling with a pig.

Many of us are likely familiar with the expression.

 

back to topic. will we go back up before Dec 1 Set a new high in Jan 1 top it again in February 2026. and show up OgNasty

or is he correct and we are hosed and 55k  is just around the corner.

$55k seems a bit extreme, and it could be that OgNasty is merely trying to be dramatic in order to make a point, which I would imagine many of us consider him to be a bit much when it comes to suggesting that there is some way to have certainty about the extent of the drop.

It sure could be possible that our already existing local bottom of $98,898 could end up already being a sufficient bottom, yet it would not be any more bearish than it already is to have another test of our curren t$98,898 bottom and perhaps even go as low as $90k-ish.. before returning in the UPpity direction.. and that would surely shake a few more weakhands who are teetering on this superficial theory that the "the top is already in."

I could also end up breaking down after such additional test, since there could be some more froth to flesh out from our October 10th liquidations.. .so maybe there are 35% or perhaps close to 40% or so odds of breaking down after some kind of a retesting of our current local bottom rather than resuming into a grinding up kinds of a scenario.  

JJG - I don't know why the nice and considerate good people here put up with your shit...

Maybe he's just L33T?

hahahahaaha..   I had not even noticed that.

[edited out]

It's always a win-win when you've already won!

That's part of the thing that tends to be so difficult for the low coiner, the no coiners and the overly whimpy accumulator guys to realize that a certain amount of ongoing building up of the bitcoin stash will likely end up in later having some kind of a price cushion between our costs per BTC and the current price.. and even after a while the 200-WMA will end up being way higher than our costs per BTC... so then at that point the investment has already won, even if the amout of profits might still be fluctuating in seemingly large ways, relatively speaking  

There seems to be a lot of "already won" built in for guys who have somewhere close to a couple of cycles and beyond, and surely I had been saying that if some of the guys had built most of their stack prior to 2021, there are decently good odds that he will feel like he is in the already winning camp.. as long as he had been mostly erroring on the side of buying and holding and not fucking around with trading and any sales were either relatively small or done in a spend and replace kind of a way.

I acknowledge that even a guy who did most of his stacking prior to 2021, he likely would have had needed a couple of years of stacking at least.. but yeah, I hate to be overly presumptive, except that I know that it tends to take long time to build a bitcoin stash, even if a guy might have some abilities to invest from other savings and the reallocation from other investments besides merely relying on income from his regular job, since it is fairly rare for guys to both have a lot of discretionary income and also be focused enough to invest high amounts of it (especially into something like bitcoin).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SPIDERMAN008]

I want to buy this burger with Bitcoin at 2035.
I don't want to be a second Laszlo by buying it now .



X

[Riginac111]

I want to buy this burger with Bitcoin at 2035.
I don't want to be a second Laszlo by buying it now .



X

A burger seller will accept to sell, because people is aware of Bitcoin, when Laszlo bought pizza with bitcoin so many countries is not aware of Bitcoin and that is why people will keep on values the impacts Laszlo created with bitcoin. If you rate the amount Laszlo bought pizza with bitcoin with the correct rate of Bitcoin, I don't think you can have such mindset to sacrifice such amount to buy burger currently.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[She shining]

I want to buy this burger with Bitcoin at 2035.
I don't want to be a second Laszlo by buying it now .

And you believe you won't be a second Laszlo when it's 2035? SMH. If you too fixated on the cost of everything, you would miss out on many things.

[AlcoHoDL]

OK, this is new to me. Bubble Clouds! Yes, this is a MATLAB function, if anyone cares. This can be very useful for visualizing data in various ways. So I gave it a try using the Bitstamp day price historical data I'd used in my earlier posts. Here's what came out:

Bubble Cloud — ATH Ages (in Days)



It shows the ATHs as bubbles, grouped by 4-year cycles (each cycle starts at the halving shown in the legend). The size of each bubble is proportional to the ATH's age in days. Notice the number of bubbles, an also the size of the bubbles. There is no price information in this chart. What we want is many bubbles (meaning many ATH occurrences). If a bubble is very large, it means the price is stable or dipping (no more ATHs for the lifespan of that bubble).

We see that the 2016 halving cycle (July 2016 ~ May 2020) contains many small bubbles, as well as a massive one, which signifies a kind of "price saturation" if you will, where the pump ends and the price goes sideways or dips. This massive bubble corresponds to the 17-12-2017 ATH of $19,666, which lasted for a whopping 1079 days (almost 3 years).

On to the 2020 halving cycle (May 2020 ~ April 2024), which, again, contains many small bubbles, but fewer than the previous cycle. Also, we now have 3 big ones, with the biggest one corresponding to the 10-11-2021 ATH of $69,000, and lasting for 846 days (more than 2 years).

Finally, the current, 2024 halving cycle (April 2024 ~ March 2028), still has more than 2 years to go, and so does not yet have as many bubbles as the previous two cycles. We also see that no massive bubble has yet formed, and I've also indicated the current, 06-10-2025 ATH of $126,272 with an arrow pointing to the corresponding bubble in the chart. The absence of a super-massive bubble in this cycle can be interpreted in different ways, from bullish, to bearish. Here's my take:

Bullish scenario: there will soon be a string of many ATHs in quick succession (i.e., many small bubbles) and sometime in 2026 the pump will end and the last ATH bubble will start to grow really large, until the next cycle.

Bearish scenario: no more bubbles will form (no more ATHs), but the current ATH bubble (indicated by the arrow in the chart) will grow massively, like a cancerous cell, spanning a period of more than 2 years, until the next cycle.

Take of this analysis what you will, I'm throwing it out there for all to see and interpret the chart in any way you want. Time will tell if more bubbles will soon follow, or the last bubble is already in for this cycle. I wish and hope for the former, but fear that the latter also has a good chance of playing out.

On to my haikus now...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JayJuanGee -

@OgNasty could be right, the 200dma is at around $55,000 and in past bear markets we have visited it. If we were to go near it, I would go pretty much all in with spare fiat I have allocated for a potential dump.

The thing is though, in my opinion we can barely even call this year a bull run so maybe because of the severely neutered bull run we don’t have a harsh bear market. Perhaps Bitcoin behaves more like the S&P500 or NASDDAQ for a year or so and we only have a 30% dump from the $126,000 top in a supposed bear market. Maybe Bitcoin has matured and it’s a more institutional type bid.

Maybe when the US Government reopens we pump hard and behave like Gold has in 2025. I am open to the idea that 4 year cycles are dead and maybe Bitcoin begins behaving differently. I actually read this morning that the last two times the US Government reopened after a shutdown, Bitcoin pumped significantly in the months  shortly after.

Basically nobody knows what will happen. We could be entering a harsh bear market, we could be entering a softer bear market. We could be in a period of low volatility (or manipulated suppression) that ends with a parabolic 2025 Gold type move. We could even behave like indexes with a slow rise over many years.

It’s so tough to plan for and gauge how to play it as an investment at the moment. We can refer to past cycles but the sample size is so small. We already saw ‘when September is green, Bitcoin always pumps hard in Uptober’ bull shit be proven as exactly that, bull shit. We’re seeing ‘Q4 in a post halving year is always massively green’ being shown to be BS.

I see rumours that all the selling is serious OG’s getting out at over 100k which I can see being true. I guess that would be good medium to long term as we could do with more smaller stash owners as it dilutes the power of people with astronomical amounts of Bitcoin.

We are seeing Bitcoin mature from magic internet money and a speculative investment from people like ourselves to a serious, institutional play. I just pray the significant gains are still there in the future for us. 15% CAGR over the next 10-20 years would be more than good enough for me to keep the majority of my net worth in Bitcoin. If it was to drop below 10% CAGR over that time scale I would consider dramatically reducing my exposure in a decade or so.

For now though, we HODL.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

OK, this is new to me. Bubble Clouds! Yes, this is a MATLAB function, if anyone cares. This can be very useful for visualizing data in various ways. So I gave it a try using the Bitstamp day price historical data I'd used in my earlier posts. Here's what came out:

Bullish scenario: there will soon be a string of many ATHs in quick succession (i.e., many small bubbles) and sometime in 2026 the pump will end and the last ATH bubble will start to grow really large, until the next cycle.

This is in line with my theory, maybe I should have not said specifically Q4 but sometime later in 2026 I think anyway. https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=178336.msg65987340#msg65987340

Nice MATLAB work.

[philipma1957]

@JayJuanGee -

@OgNasty could be right, the 200dma is at around $55,000 and in past bear markets we have visited it. If we were to go near it, I would go pretty much all in with spare fiat I have allocated for a potential dump.

The thing is though, in my opinion we can barely even call this year a bull run so maybe because of the severely neutered bull run we don’t have a harsh bear market. Perhaps Bitcoin behaves more like the S&P500 or NASDDAQ for a year or so and we only have a 30% dump from the $126,000 top in a supposed bear market. Maybe Bitcoin has matured and it’s a more institutional type bid.

Maybe when the US Government reopens we pump hard and behave like Gold has in 2025. I am open to the idea that 4 year cycles are dead and maybe Bitcoin begins behaving differently. I actually read this morning that the last two times the US Government reopened after a shutdown, Bitcoin pumped significantly in the months  shortly after.

Basically nobody knows what will happen. We could be entering a harsh bear market, we could be entering a softer bear market. We could be in a period of low volatility (or manipulated suppression) that ends with a parabolic 2025 Gold type move. We could even behave like indexes with a slow rise over many years.

It’s so tough to plan for and gauge how to play it as an investment at the moment. We can refer to past cycles but the sample size is so small. We already saw ‘when September is green, Bitcoin always pumps hard in Uptober’ bull shit be proven as exactly that, bull shit. We’re seeing ‘Q4 in a post halving year is always massively green’ being shown to be BS.

I see rumours that all the selling is serious OG’s getting out at over 100k which I can see being true. I guess that would be good medium to long term as we could do with more smaller stash owners as it dilutes the power of people with astronomical amounts of Bitcoin.

We are seeing Bitcoin mature from magic internet money and a speculative investment from people like ourselves to a serious, institutional play. I just pray the significant gains are still there in the future for us. 15% CAGR over the next 10-20 years would be more than good enough for me to keep the majority of my net worth in Bitcoin. If it was to drop below 10% CAGR over that time scale I would consider dramatically reducing my exposure in a decade or so.

For now though, we HODL.

Yeah a longer cycle will begin one day maybe this is the first longer cycle.

[xhomerx10]

[...]

A bit tired to go out tonight (too much exercise yesterday, body aching). So I thought of crunching some more numbers. Latest Bitstamp day historical data, starting from 17 December 2017 (the dramatic post-fork ATH) up until 7 November 2025 (yesterday). I plotted the spot price throughout that period (almost 8 years), and marked all ATHs with orange circles, and an orange line showing how long each ATH lasted. I then plotted the difference between the spot price and the ATH preceding it (bottom, red graph). This shows the inter-ATH dips that have occurred throughout the 8-year period.



Now, the question is: will there be another BIG and LONG dip starting in 2026, like the one shown in the red graph, which starts in 2022 and ends in mid-2024? The years fit (2022 + 4 = 2026).

I will concede that from time to time, there can be value in regards to focusing on short periods, especially in what you are seeming to be intending to focus on recent history with a kind of underlying presumption that recent history is more important (since bitcoin is maturing as an asset class so then newer dynamics are likely more important than some of the dynamics that might not have had been present in earlier times), yet it seems that your overall points are probably not hurt by adding the earlier cycles - perhaps even potentially allowing for cutting off of the data prior to 2013 or something like that... bitcoin is ongoingly growing and adding more and more new players as various aspects of its network effects (the network effects outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to grow.

My data source does not go so far back as 2013. Still, I could have included some more data from mid-2014 onwards. Somehow I feel that the December 2017 ATH was the first major, truly significant ATH in the history of Bitcoin. I'm kind of drawn to it, and often use it as a reference. Going to $10? Nice. $100? Very nice. $1000? Yeah! But $20k, now that was a feeling I'll never forget! Again, this is just my feeling. Nothing more than a feeling...

If this happens, then LFC_Bitcoin is right and we'll soon be entering into another BIG and LONG dip, which could last until mid-2028, after the next halving. History often repeats itself, but Bitcoin is so predictably unpredictable that anything can happen.

You seem to be arguing that we should be taking history with a pretty BIG ass grain of salt, even though history can provide some parameter guidelines for us to consider in regards to what is within the realm of possible - which truly seems to be problematic in regards to rigidity in thinking that bitcoin has to do something (such as crash) within a certain timeline..

We can say that 4 year cycles exist and don't exist at the same time.. I know guys want to get worked up about whether or not the 4-year cycle pattern is going to disappear or that we have to follow such cycle with precision.

Almost no matter what, we are not going to have enough information, until after the fact.. after the market actually crashes (versus a  mere temporary correction) we might be able to say after the fact that the market crashed because x, y or z where right now x, y and/or z are not really known in terms of their specifics.. they are merely inferred in a general kind of way.. and so far we have seen that generally some kind of a blow off top has had to have had taken place in order for a correction to be justified, but then when the 2021 blow off top ended up being a way smaller version than expected, then we looked at the data and noticed the level of depravity, degenerate gambling, leverage, rehypothication that was going on, and then we realized that maybe the top could not have had gone any further without some of that froth being flushed out of the system..

And, so right now, we might not really know the level of leverage in the system - yet surely it is quite likely that even the market does not necessarily resolve all injustices, since it is probably the case that sometimes the degenerates end up winning with their gambling plays and they do not end up getting flushed out within this particular part of the market cycle. .or in this particular wave..  There are likely examples in history where undeserving people and undeserving technologies end up prevailing due to how matters played out.. not that I am suggesting that even bitcoin itself is any of those things  - since bitcoin is protocol layer and then we have a lot of players betting on top of it and through it.

[...]

I don't know. I hope that the 2022-2024 inter-ATH dip in the above chart does not repeat in t+4 years (which is about now). If it does, then we're in for a 2-year-long dip, until the next halving. But, again, this is just some pattern in a chart that's not guaranteed to repeat. I'm a pattern seeker by nature, so I can't ignore it, but I also know how unpredictable Bitcoin can be in the short or even medium term, so I don't give it too much attention. Even if it happens, it's OK, I wasn't planning on selling anyway. So, I'll wait it out. It will just be an added delay in Bitcoin's upward path. The 200-WMA will keep rising, albeit a little slower. But if the dip doesn't happen, and UPpity is resumed in 2025 or early 2026, then all the better for all of us.

It's always a win-win when you've already won!

trigger warning - actual fiat currency will be displayed below.



 I remember reading in psych104 that we're all (Yep! The royal "we" - even Queen Elizabeth) pattern-seekers and somehow it benefits us.  The specifics are lost on me but it's due to the neocortex of our brain.  Not sure why it's beneficial to see a hideous face hidden in the portrait of our most-beloved queen but here it is (courtesy of the Bank of Canada website):


 

 People likened the image to the Devil so the notes were altered 2 years after release to remove the illusion.  Maybe this Bitcoin cycle we'll remove the illusion of cycles

[BTCETFInvestor]

back to topic. will we go back up before Dec 1 Set a new high in Jan 1 top it again in February 2026. and show up OgNasty

or is he correct and we are hosed and 55k  is just around the corner.

Phil - Your outcome is the correct one...with greater than 4/1 odds!   

[BTCETFInvestor]

OK, this is new to me. Bubble Clouds! Yes, this is a MATLAB function, if anyone cares. This can be very useful for visualizing data in various ways. So I gave it a try using the Bitstamp day price historical data I'd used in my earlier posts. Here's what came out:

Bullish scenario: there will soon be a string of many ATHs in quick succession (i.e., many small bubbles) and sometime in 2026 the pump will end and the last ATH bubble will start to grow really large, until the next cycle.

This is in line with my theory, maybe I should have not said specifically Q4 but sometime later in 2026 I think anyway. https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=178336.msg65987340#msg65987340

Nice MATLAB work.

Agree!

@AlcoHoDL's MATLAB BubbleClouds data chart is praiseworthy...

I'd like to see the Bitcoin price prediction results from MATLAB's machine learning capabilities.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Trump announces American citizens will recieve a $2,000 tariff dividend.

[xhomerx10]

Trump announces American citizens will recieve a $2,000 tariff dividend.

 They should put it all into Bitcoin; it's the only way.

[Abelly]

[...]

A bit tired to go out tonight (too much exercise yesterday, body aching). So I thought of crunching some more numbers. Latest Bitstamp day historical data, starting from 17 December 2017 (the dramatic post-fork ATH) up until 7 November 2025 (yesterday). I plotted the spot price throughout that period (almost 8 years), and marked all ATHs with orange circles, and an orange line showing how long each ATH lasted. I then plotted the difference between the spot price and the ATH preceding it (bottom, red graph). This shows the inter-ATH dips that have occurred throughout the 8-year period.



Now, the question is: will there be another BIG and LONG dip starting in 2026, like the one shown in the red graph, which starts in 2022 and ends in mid-2024? The years fit (2022 + 4 = 2026).

I will concede that from time to time, there can be value in regards to focusing on short periods, especially in what you are seeming to be intending to focus on recent history with a kind of underlying presumption that recent history is more important (since bitcoin is maturing as an asset class so then newer dynamics are likely more important than some of the dynamics that might not have had been present in earlier times), yet it seems that your overall points are probably not hurt by adding the earlier cycles - perhaps even potentially allowing for cutting off of the data prior to 2013 or something like that... bitcoin is ongoingly growing and adding more and more new players as various aspects of its network effects (the network effects outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to grow.

My data source does not go so far back as 2013. Still, I could have included some more data from mid-2014 onwards. Somehow I feel that the December 2017 ATH was the first major, truly significant ATH in the history of Bitcoin. I'm kind of drawn to it, and often use it as a reference. Going to $10? Nice. $100? Very nice. $1000? Yeah! But $20k, now that was a feeling I'll never forget! Again, this is just my feeling. Nothing more than a feeling...

If this happens, then LFC_Bitcoin is right and we'll soon be entering into another BIG and LONG dip, which could last until mid-2028, after the next halving. History often repeats itself, but Bitcoin is so predictably unpredictable that anything can happen.

You seem to be arguing that we should be taking history with a pretty BIG ass grain of salt, even though history can provide some parameter guidelines for us to consider in regards to what is within the realm of possible - which truly seems to be problematic in regards to rigidity in thinking that bitcoin has to do something (such as crash) within a certain timeline..

We can say that 4 year cycles exist and don't exist at the same time.. I know guys want to get worked up about whether or not the 4-year cycle pattern is going to disappear or that we have to follow such cycle with precision.

Almost no matter what, we are not going to have enough information, until after the fact.. after the market actually crashes (versus a  mere temporary correction) we might be able to say after the fact that the market crashed because x, y or z where right now x, y and/or z are not really known in terms of their specifics.. they are merely inferred in a general kind of way.. and so far we have seen that generally some kind of a blow off top has had to have had taken place in order for a correction to be justified, but then when the 2021 blow off top ended up being a way smaller version than expected, then we looked at the data and noticed the level of depravity, degenerate gambling, leverage, rehypothication that was going on, and then we realized that maybe the top could not have had gone any further without some of that froth being flushed out of the system..

And, so right now, we might not really know the level of leverage in the system - yet surely it is quite likely that even the market does not necessarily resolve all injustices, since it is probably the case that sometimes the degenerates end up winning with their gambling plays and they do not end up getting flushed out within this particular part of the market cycle. .or in this particular wave..  There are likely examples in history where undeserving people and undeserving technologies end up prevailing due to how matters played out.. not that I am suggesting that even bitcoin itself is any of those things  - since bitcoin is protocol layer and then we have a lot of players betting on top of it and through it.

[...]

I don't know. I hope that the 2022-2024 inter-ATH dip in the above chart does not repeat in t+4 years (which is about now). If it does, then we're in for a 2-year-long dip, until the next halving. But, again, this is just some pattern in a chart that's not guaranteed to repeat. I'm a pattern seeker by nature, so I can't ignore it, but I also know how unpredictable Bitcoin can be in the short or even medium term, so I don't give it too much attention. Even if it happens, it's OK, I wasn't planning on selling anyway. So, I'll wait it out. It will just be an added delay in Bitcoin's upward path. The 200-WMA will keep rising, albeit a little slower. But if the dip doesn't happen, and UPpity is resumed in 2025 or early 2026, then all the better for all of us.

It's always a win-win when you've already won!

trigger warning - actual fiat currency will be displayed below.



 I remember reading in psych104 that we're all (Yep! The royal "we" - even Queen Elizabeth) pattern-seekers and somehow it benefits us.  The specifics are lost on me but it's due to the neocortex of our brain.  Not sure why it's beneficial to see a hideous face hidden in the portrait of our most-beloved queen but here it is (courtesy of the Bank of Canada website):


 

 People likened the image to the Devil so the notes were altered 2 years after release to remove the illusion.  Maybe this Bitcoin cycle we'll remove the illusion of cycles

You're right, this is also known as pareidolia
where we see faces or patterns in random objects
 the neocortex actually plays a big role in it
it's not disbelief our brains are wired in such a way that they even find mystery in banknotes!



History has shown time and again that when illusions are removed
truth remains, maybe this cycle will see that reality too!

[BTCETFInvestor]

Trump announces American citizens will receive a $2,000 tariff dividend.

Yep! The proposed $2,000 tariff dividend payments will be paid to all Americans except 'high income people', but the proposal will require congressional approval. There will undoubtably be pressure on Congress to pass its approval...

High income people will likely be based on similar past proposal income limits of: Married couples with income of $150,000 or more and Individual taxpayers with an income of $75,000 or more.


Economists have concerns about potential inflation and the feasibility of the plan. Other proposals prioritize using tariff revenue to pay down the national debt first.


Illegals can go back to where the hell they came from...