Bubble Cloud — ATH Ages (in Days)
.....Here's my take:
Bullish scenario: there will soon be a string of many ATHs in quick succession (i.e., many small bubbles) and sometime in 2026 the pump will end and the last ATH bubble will start to grow really large, until the next cycle.
Bearish scenario: no more bubbles will form (no more ATHs), but the current ATH bubble (indicated by the arrow in the chart) will grow massively, like a cancerous cell, spanning a period of more than 2 years, until the next cycle.
Take of this analysis what you will, I'm throwing it out there for all to see and interpret the chart in any way you want. Time will tell if more bubbles will soon follow, or the last bubble is already in for this cycle. I wish and hope for the former, but fear that the latter also has a good chance of playing out.
So your data for each of the periods begins at the beginning of the calendar year 2016, 2020 and then 2024?
There is a shrinking bubble size from 2016 to 2020, yet the period in which the large bubble usually forms has not taken place yet, so then there is a question about whether we will have one of the large bubbles (meaning a dragging out of the time in which there are no more new ATHs) or if there might be a shrinkage of those large bubbles.
I am not sure if the data or even the speculation around such data is telling us a whole lot, since we could have very painful larger bubbles that have 85% or more drops in the price, or maybe the large bubble would end up with less than 30% as the most drastic of dip portions. The bubble size would be the same for both of those scenarios since it is ONLY measuring the time that has passed since the previous ATH.
There can be some value in measuring time since ATH, yet we likely need to look at both time and the severity of the price changes therein to really get some more meaningful data. Personally I have found some of the trade weighted volume pieces of information to be interesting, yet to have a certain amount of boringness to it.
@JayJuanGee -
@OgNasty could be right, the 200dma is at around $55,000 and in past bear markets we have visited it. If we were to go near it, I would go pretty much all in with spare fiat I have allocated for a potential dump.
Sure it is not beyond the realm of possibilities to both visit the 200-WMA, but it is possible to go around 35% below it, like we did in 2022. And you are correct the 200-WMA is currently at about $55k.
At the same time, it is my opinion that we should not be basing our base case of what we believe likely to happen based on what could happen. .. and our based on minority scenarios - even though you are free to give greater to such DOWNity probabilities as compared with what I am giving to such DOWNity scenarios.
I recall that you, personally, was whining and bearish even below the October 10 liquidation event, so surely you had already taken a good chunk out prior to the drop that happened on October 10.
Yes, there have been a decent number of folks trying to characterize the October 10 liquidation event as being similar to the Terra/Luna crash that had contributed to cascading liquidations based on potential contagion and/or momentum that ends up flushing out leverage and excesses.. including excess exuberance.
I don't buy it, even though there are a lot of whiners out there attempting to emphasize those kinds of points... and sure, I agree that the timeline shows that it is time for the cycle to be over, and so surly additional weak hands (or those who are overly weighing the timeline theory.. so they end up selling too much too soon based on such timeline considerations) may well end up getting flushed out of some or maybe they get separated from a high quantity of their bitcoin at a time that was not so convenient for them.. so they lose the future value based on their assessments of abilities to buy back cheaper.. which may or may not end up happening. I am not saying for sure that you and OgNasty are wrong, even though I am saying that your level of confidence seems quite incomplete and unsubstantiated by sufficient current existing facts.
The thing is though, in my opinion we can barely even call this year a bull run so maybe because of the severely neutered bull run we don’t have a harsh bear market. Perhaps Bitcoin behaves more like the S&P500 or NASDDAQ for a year or so and we only have a 30% dump from the $126,000 top in a supposed bear market. Maybe Bitcoin has matured and it’s a more institutional type bid.
You have just given part of the justification as to why we may well have to be careful in selling too much of our corn too soon, and yeah so far we got a 22% dip from the current $126,272 high.. and so you are sitting in a pretty decent position now, even though we might not get any more correction from here.. On the other hand, sure maybe we get another 8% out of this current dip and maybe not. And, yeah maybe we get another 50% dip or more out of this to bring us to $55k or below, and maybe not. I am not in bitcoin to bet on or fuck around with down, even though sure, I have no problem with selling on the way up, especially once we have gotten to overaccumulation status.
I do find it problematic if you think that you can buy back, but then I have no problem with you having some numbers in which you would end up buying back if the price reaches such numbers, otherwise you might be committed to sticking with the sales that you already made and then just waiting for higher prices before you sell any more.. and hopefully you did not end up selling too much too soon and become a statistic in that regard.. .since it is a common practice for guys to sell too much too soon.
At the same time, from your earlier description it seemed to me that you were not selling too much too soon, since you said that you sold a relatively modest proportion of your holdings, even while providing you with decently large quantities of fiat value relative to your current expected standard of living.
Maybe when the US Government reopens we pump hard and behave like Gold has in 2025.
First of all. Fuck gold. Who gives any shits about getting distracted by gold. Apparently you do.
Second, sure there could end up coming a decently good pump from USA Government reopening, since markets do not really like uncertainty which really screws up liquidity in a variety of ways.
So yeah there could be a relief rally that brings us at least to the current ATH and perhaps a bit beyond that before Trump does some other dumb thing or various other previously stated problems rise to the level of some new fake emergency... so yeah a relief rally could at least allow me to win the bet, while at the same time we might get something around $130k or maybe some slightly higher number from that... and we would have to revisit if there is enough ongoing buying pressure, since you know that BTC price actions are not straight forward and in one direction, and we are already expiencing information that seems to tell us that there is reluctance in regards towards us going in a blow off top direction that might be of similar magnitudes had been experienced in earlier cycles.
At the same time, I am not going to rule out some kind of blow off top and/or stair-stepping up of the BTC price that would then start to justify the kinds of corrections (such as at least around 60% or greater that you consider to have decently high odds of being in the cards). Maybe I could get on board with you if we were to get somewhere close to $200k in this cycle then perhaps we could correct back to something like $80k.. yet I am trying to think about scenarios in which sub $100k is no longer likely, but we need $300k or higher in this cycle for that which I am increasingly having difficulties envisioning those kinds of supra $300k as being very likely for this cycle.
I am open to the idea that 4 year cycles are dead and maybe Bitcoin begins behaving differently. I actually read this morning that the last two times the US Government reopened after a shutdown, Bitcoin pumped significantly in the months shortly after.
I agree that it is probably better to presume 4 year cycles are still alive until they are not, and there are ways to prepare for a variety of scenarios at the same time, so we don't have to put a lot of finances and/or psychology into any one cycle playing out.
Part of my difficulties with any of us longer term bitcoiners getting all emotional about volatility relates to the fact that we have already been around the block a number of times, so we should already be accustomed to large levels of volatility, so we should have financial and psychological systems already in place to deal with one of the things that is most inevitable in bitcoin. Its volatility - which does not even have a directional component to it.. even though in the long run we expect it to be generally tending in the UPpity direction.
Basically nobody knows what will happen.
Sure we don't know, but we have senses about what will happen. That is why many of us WO regulars tend to error on the side of holding onto whatever coin that we have and/or accumulating coin... Sure some sell at various points along the way, but likely any of us who are selling are merely selling chunks here and there and not putting ourselves into positions of rooting for down (even though you seem to cross that line from time to time - even though maybe you are speaking out of fear of down rather than desire for down).
So, part of my point is that we can
not know about price direction and prepare for either price direction at the same time.
We could be entering a harsh bear market, we could be entering a softer bear market. We could be in a period of low volatility (or manipulated suppression) that ends with a parabolic 2025 Gold type move. We could even behave like indexes with a slow rise over many years.
Sure. Each or of those scenarios are all within the realm of possible with possibilities of them being exclusive from the other or even possibilities of some hybrid of a couple of the scenarios... so surely we are prepared financially and/or psychologically for any of those to play out, even if we might have preferences for one or another and we also may well apportion our preparations for one scenario in terms of how much probability that we have assigned to each of the scenarios.
It’s so tough to plan for and gauge how to play it as an investment at the moment.
You might be making it tough on yourself, since maybe you are trying to play big with tweaks that you want to make to what you are already doing, so you are having a bit of a dilemma, and part of the dilemma is likely coming to you based on the size of the tweaks that you are wanting to make rather than the fact that you are considering the information to have had changed sufficiently in order to justify your making tweaks.
You likely have to admit that if you did not have bitcoin as one of your options, then you would have had been totally fucked.
No coiners and extremely low coiners are likely in an even BIGGER dilemma. Maybe at least the low coiner who has started accumulating bitcoin, he might at least have a vision to accumulate bitcoin for 4 years.. yet a guy like you (and several of us who are active in this thread) we have made it through our first 4 years and further along, so we have way more options based on our having bitcoin in our package of options.
I am not going to feel sorry for you. You fucking have bitcoin... and a decent amount of it... You lucky fuck. hahahahhaha
#nohomo Your problem seems to be that you are trying to maximize your level of rich rather than being both grateful for what you have and also recognizing that your ongoing holding of bitcoin is going to put you in a good place and keep you in a good place, even if we might have some period of downward or even sideways performance in the coming few years.
Hopefully, for your own good, you are not overly distracted by gold and other inferior assets, even though sure, if it will make feel better to put some money in gold or some other asset that you consider might outperform bitcoin in the short to medium term, then go for it. You already seem to have some cash available for that.. and as long as you keep your allocations relatively small, then you can still get some benefits of diversifying and not missing out on that antiquated shiny metal rock and/or any other places that you might consider to be potentially competitive places to put your value besides bitcoin and cash.
We can refer to past cycles but the sample size is so small. We already saw ‘when September is green, Bitcoin always pumps hard in Uptober’ bull shit be proven as exactly that, bull shit. We’re seeing ‘Q4 in a post halving year is always massively green’ being shown to be BS.
I would imagine that you already knew that the patterns were bullshit, even though maybe at the same time, you were putting some credence in them.. So any extent that you might have had been relying on patterns is your own fault.
I see rumours that all the selling is serious OG’s getting out at over 100k which I can see being true.
I would take those kinds of proclamations with a decently good-sized grain of salt. Sure there is some truth in those kinds of myths, yet it is probably not as true (or important, if true) as it is being made out to be.
I guess that would be good medium to long term as we could do with more smaller stash owners as it dilutes the power of people with astronomical amounts of Bitcoin.
Sure. Inevitably bitcoin gets distributed, even though we have some fairly BIG 3rd party custodians coming into the space too.
We are seeing Bitcoin mature from magic internet money and a speculative investment from people like ourselves to a serious, institutional play.
Trace Mayer referred to it in his outlining of bitcoin network effects as the financialization of bitcoin. Like you suggested it is reflective of a maturing of bitcoin as an asset class.
I just pray the significant gains are still there in the future for us. 15% CAGR over the next 10-20 years would be more than good enough for me to keep the majority of my net worth in Bitcoin. If it was to drop below 10% CAGR over that time scale I would consider dramatically reducing my exposure in a decade or so.
For now though, we HODL.
With anything, we would way if there are better assets that we might want to consider allocating into, and when there is uncertainty (which generally tends to be the case with a large number of assets), we diversify to the extent to which proportioning in bitcoin and cash is not sufficient.
I was already somewhat diversified when I came to bitcoin.. yet sure, I have not been stagnant in term of considering the extent to which I might change any of my other investments, yet at the same time bitcoin has greatly outpaced any other place that I have value.
Sure, in the future, bitcoin is likely to not perform as well as it has done in the past with arguably 50% to 90% CAGRs, depending on who you ask and how they calculate it. I think that something like greater than 20% CAGR seems to have good odds of happening, yet we may well not know in advance, since even good investments will have good and bad years, so even an asset with a fairly strong CAGR, it may well have some years of greatly underperformance too.. so the CAGR ends up averaging it out rather than serving as a bare minimum... so there are ways that guys could mishe sunderstand the concept of CAGR and negatively judge the performance of their investment (bitcoin in this case) based on recent data rather than grasping scenarios to help to understand more likely future performance (that is not known in advance).
One of the reasons that I use the 200-WMA as a way of valuating my own bitcoin and figuring the amounts that I might be able to sustainably withdrawal, I get the sense that if the 200-WMA is starting to move up at less than 20% per year, then likely the spot price is below the 200-WMA, and so the spot price would not be doing good.. so there is a bit of a cushion, even though I have been proclaiming that a withdrawal of 10% per year is infinitely sustainable, yet I have been keeping in mind that I am expecting the 200-WMA to be mostly moving up around 20% per year, so maybe my own solution would be to stop selling bitcoin or even to buy more if the 200-WMA is appearing to go below a 20% per year CAGR. I suppose in those kinds of situations, it would be good to have some income sources that are not bitcoin related.. so that you don't have to spend your bitcoin and you can spend from the non-bitcoin related resources (income).
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