Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Strange to see you mentioning CME gaps. You used to bash me for mentioning them. What’s next, an admission the 4-year cycle is real and you should have sold instead of screaming to buy at $120K?

The 4 year cycle is not real, that is just a delusion. You seem to have a few sadly..

Delusional is telling the person who has been right about this market that they have delusions while you’re sitting on year over year losses… I do applaud the self confidence around here though. I would honestly be embarrassed if I had bashed the guy who told me to sell the top and continued to do so, even after a 37% correction in the following weeks proved him right.

Perhaps there could have had been a decently good trade if someone were to have had sold around the $126k top and bought at around the so far $80k bottom.  Yet for some strange reason, I have my doubts about your either having had sold at the top or to have had bought back in at the so far bottom, since at one point you said that you were waiting for something like $40ks, but then at various later times you moved off of that, and you have a back up position to say that you are just going to spread out your BTC buy backs on around a monthly basis over the next year-ish and perhaps even longer than that.

Sure, it is possible that your trade ends up working out for you, even if you didn't sell as high as you proclaim ur lil selfie to have had sold and you do not end up buying back at whatever low ends up coming from our current correction situation that you continue to imply has already pivoted dee cornz into a supposed bear market.

So, sure, maybe you ended up getting it correct this time, even though i have a lot of doubts about your getting it right (if that were to actually end up happening is going to make up for your historical screw ups over the past nearly 15 years that you could have had built up a sufficiently large bitcoin stash so that you would not have to be fucking around trying to trade, yet instead you fucked up so many times over the years, and you still seem to be unable to attribute your own smarter than everyone else perspective to the reason why you are having to fuck around trying to trade in the first place.  

If a guy were to have average bitcoin prices below $500 per coin (which you should have had been able to easily achieve), then why the fuck should such a guy give too many shits if his stash happens to be ONLY 160x (representing an $80k price) in profits rather than 240x (representing a $120k price) in profits?  

Ongoingly, when you are denigrating guys for largely HODLing their bitcoin and even continuing to accumulate bitcoin at any price, you seem to be missing the power of compounding that becomes difficult for BTC traders to achieve, since the BTC traders ongoingly end up selling way too many coins too soon and unable to buy back as many coins as they would have had (or could have had) if they had developed an investor mentality rather than letting their degenerate tendencies to gamble to rule their thoughts and practices around dee cornz.

Strange to see you mentioning CME gaps. You used to bash me for mentioning them. What’s next, an admission the 4-year cycle is real and you should have sold instead of screaming to buy at $120K?

The 4 year cycle is not real, that is just a delusion. You seem to have a few sadly..

Delusional is telling the person who has been right about this market that they have delusions while you’re sitting on year over year losses… I do applaud the self confidence around here though. I would honestly be embarrassed if I had bashed the guy who told me to sell the top and continued to do so, even after a 37% correction in the following weeks proved him right.

Small successes here and there won't make up for past life mistakes, but I guess most aren't ready to face that reality.   All cycle theory proponents must be rich then, history repeats itself in their dreams of course.  

There are so many guys like OgNasty who have been in bitcoin a long time, yet they ongoingly fail and refuse to learn a lesson about their trying to trade bitcoin that has cost them a lot over the years, yet they ongoingly and delusionally continue to proclaim that their trading has benefitted them more than it has cost them, and OgNasty himself fails to appreciate how he fucked his own situation in the 2017 price run by selling way too much too soon, but then he keeps on fucking around trying to trade, which he probably could be multiples (if not magnitudes) richer if he had never gone down the trading path or at least corrected his ways after his 2017 fuck ups.

OgNasty is too busy trying to argue how much smarter he is than others rather than to really recognize and appreciate the power of actual investing into bitcoin and the power of compounding value that has come to guys who came to bitcoin and who had errored on the side of mostly (if not exclusively?) buying and holding.

Point is you sell if you need some money or stuff right now. Otherwise just HODL.

This is where you and I disagree. I think people should sell the tops and establish enough income that they will never need to sell again and can be a constant buyer. Being in a position where you are forced to sell at a loss (like many will find themselves later this year) is what will destroy an individual’s Bitcoin holdings.

You think that guys with average costs per BTC anywhere between $500 per coin to $10k per coin are going to be selling at a loss any time soon (or ever for that matter?)?

And you could have had been at the lower end of that range or even below costs of $500 per coin if you had ever established anything close to an investor (rather than a gambler/trader) mindset and buying and holding practice.

Even if you might have had been able to correct your ways from your 2017 screw ups (to the extent that you did not sell your whole BTC stash in 2017?), you could have had really decent chances to fix your dumb-ass degenerate gambling/trading (and wanting to act like you know more than everyone else) ways between 2018 and 2021 in order to have had been able to establish a decently good base of bitcoin right now instead of ongoingly fucking around with trying to trade and likely ongoingly undermining your own bitcoin holdings.

You say that guys like me were lucky, yet how could that be?  You started more than 2.5 years before me, yet you are still trying to trade and/or show that you are smarter than everyone else by supposedly selling and supposedly benefitting from BTC prices dropping from $126k to $80k, even though there aren't any real signs that you bought back yet since you were supposedly waiting for bitcoin to go into the lower $50ks or even into the $40ks.  Supposedly.  You tend to talk a big game, even though you also tend to have several stories at the same time..

Let's make a hypothetical and say that during your 2017 BTC sales you had thought that you were so smart because you had generated around $300k from those sales, but then at the same time, by the end of 2017, you realized that you fucked up.. .so for a 2018 New Year's resolution, you decided that you were going to buy back all of your sold amount in the next 3 years and you would become an investor rather than staying as a degenerate gambler (trader).

Accordingly in the beginning of 2018, you started to buy back $2k per week, and you continued to buy back $2k per week until the end of 2020, which would have had resulted in your using all of the $300k of your 2017 sales and you would have ended up with 42.3 BTC - which surely would be a good place to be, even with that particular scenario you would have an average cost per BTC of right around $7.1k, and I am having trouble imaging any trading scenario that you have been fucking around with since 2018 that would have had gotten you better results than if you had focused on investing in bitcoin during that time and going "cold-turkey" on your trying to trade (gamble) with bitcoin.

I also have trouble imagining how any seemingly degenerate like you would have had been able to humble himself with having a bitcoin stash of 42.3 BTC by the time 2021 came, and perhaps you could not have had held onto those BTC during bitcoin's volatility after 2021 - even though with such a stash of bitcoin, if you weren't a degenerate gambler (trader), you likely could have had figured out some reasonable forms of sustainable withdrawal (price based and/or time based) with that size of a stash.. and still largely still have right around 3/4 of the stash.

Even my sustainable withdrawal tool (made and improved by Bitmover) shows that starting with a 42.3 BTC stash in early 2021 and withdrawing at a 10% per year rate (within the confines of the tool) would have had still retained nearly 32 BTC right now and 10 BTC sold over the past 5 years... and having 32 BTC right now would also not be a bad place to be.

Right now, 32 BTC would support a sustainable withdrawal rate of right around $184k per year with a 7% per year increase in the dollar value of those withdrawals into the future, which to me seems that it would be a very good place to be for a bitcoin investor, and I have my doubts about whether whatever you have been doing in the past 5-ish years would have had been able to outperform the bitcoin investor (even the reformed bitcoin investor as I had outlined such a possible reformed bitcoin investor scenario).

[edited out]

He has support for being more direct with the speech, even if he has issues with lying too but which politician doesn't? They didn't say we are bringing democracy to Venezuela or invent terrorists to create a precedent, they said the want the oil and so they came. It is refreshing for a change, putting aside whether they are doing the right thing or not.

O.k. So you (BitHolders) seem to believe that Trump is more of a speaker of truth than he is a liar.. and so hopefully you realize that he will come out with several justifications for whatever thing he is doing, to the extent that he even talks about it, and then at some point he will figure out which version has better reviews for him, and then he will stick with that version.  There were a few shifting narratives with the Venezuela situation, including the oil justification, which he may or may not end up sticking with that version of events.

Surely any of us could agree that Trump will sometimes say some unpopular things and even sometimes be shown to have had been correct on some of the things that he had ended up saying, yet even if he is sometimes found to have been more correct than originally thought, I doubt that it means that he is either a purveyor of truth or even that he is trustworthy, even though there are a lot of folks (including yourself) who seem to be ready and willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in regards to all kinds of outrageous shit that he does to arguably push the limits of the powers (or to strive to increase the powers?) of the Presidency.

So far.
When shit hits the fan, nobody wants to be responsible for not taking countermeasure, even Reps. You don't need many. That's democracy, too.

He didn't really do anything that crazy yet, unless you think that speaking a bit unhinged and playing around with Tariffs is crazy.  

One man's "crazy" is another man's "another day at the office."

So I opened my box of chocolates.
I have a glass of vodka
And a leg of slow roasted turkey.

With a side of ice tea
Early dinner for me.
Maybe early bed

Forest Gump?  Is that you?

By the way, I recall one day, I was out on a run (perhaps 20-ish years ago), and as I was running through a neighborhood in the area that I was then living, and some guys (and girls too, I think?) were calling out "Run Forrest, run," and they were laughing as they were yelling it.  

I was a bit offended by the comment, but I did not do anything or say anything since I could not really see any purpose in stopping my run in order to say something - even though it did not feel like a flattering comment and they seemed to have had been denigrating my choice to go for a run and such strangers seemed to have ben making fun out of my situation and getting the last word (laugh) out of it, since I did not want to stop and/or respond to it.  

Surely some folks love Trump no matter what he does and perhaps even expected various extreme and quasi-unpredictable actions in regards to Trump being elected as with some sort of mandate to "disrupt."

It seems that at that at the same time, even Trump lovers should have some abilities to employ some critical thinking skills in regards to things that he does.. or is it that all things that Trump does must be good, since Trump is doing them?

I suppose anyone who trusts another person (even a convicted criminal) will give them benefits of the doubt based on having that trust, even though surely anyone questioning trump is presumed to be a trump hater (or to have Trump derangement syndrome) merely based on their questioning Trump  - and surely even with TDS, there are likely degrees of it.  There should be a value in questioning persons in positions of power, yet I suppose if there are desires that such persons become omnipotent, then maybe there are values that such person is not questioned about anything that they do.  

Nobody is saying that what he is doing is objectively good or that he is using the best strategy possible to do it, it is more that his strategy has been obvious for some time and still people are playing right into his hands. Every time he does the same thing with another subject, people start speculating on reasoning including stuff that it is because he is senile and they get upset and such.

I am sure that there is a lot of variation in perspectives about Trump, and he loves attention and even seems to love being the heal.

He has likely never really been held accountable for his various bad man conduct, and surely some folks don't mind Trump because they think that he is their asshole. (meaning that he is an asshole, but at least he is on the same side as they are.   They may or may not be correct in such assessment).  Trump seems to be able to get along with many folks, as long as such folks are in agreement with Trump and don't waiver in agreeing with Trump.

As far as the convicted criminal part is concerned, looking at the state of the justice system in the US and Europe that is meaningless these days.

I doubt that it is meaningless to have judge and juries convict.. yet Trump still able to get away with those things that he was convicted of... He was also likely criminally guilty of several other crimes, yet several criminal charges were either dropped or deferred after he was elected in November.

Many heavy criminals are not convicted because they have connections with the higher ups or for other reasons, and on the other hand you can get convinced for saying something mean online in some countries.

I am not referring to any "what about-ism." I am referring to Trump.  Yes, when he got elected, it was a get out of jail card. I will grant that there might have had been some folks who purposefully voted for Trump because they wanted him to get out of jail and to get out of the various prosecutions that were then in process against him.... and probably the more important fact is that he was voted in, rather than why various voters decided to vote for him - even though surely there is all kinds of variation, and votes are also captured in time too.. and there may well be quite a few folks with regrets about their votes even though they might have not been willing to vote for Kamala, either, even if they could go back in time and unvote for Trump.

With the state of things being like this, it should come to no surprise that most people don't care that some court in New York or wherever convicted Trump on some class whatever bullshit?

Of course, some folks don't care and they want to either minimize the importance of the criminal conviction or to act like it did not happen.  Trump and his team made various efforts to try to remove and/or to destroy some of the records related to various Trump prosecutions (and impeachements) over the years.

If he gets convicted for something that almost nobody else does even when they engage in the same thing, and definitely not someone rich and famous then it is a witch trial not worth thinking about.

If anything Trump has gotten away with way more than he should have had gotten away with rather than folks picking on him in a "witch trial" kind of context as he frequently likes to proclaim within his deluded and self-absorbed feelings of victimhood (in ways that he many times had brought on such desires of folks to prosecute him).

As free speech continues to get criminalized, most of us will be criminals.

You are probably correct that there are quite a few ongoing threats to free speech.

For those who love Trump no matter what, is there any limitation that you expect that could be or should be placed on him?  

For those who want Trump to have more and more and more power, should we consider the historical checks and balances within the American governmental systems to be outdated and no longer needed?

He's doing a lot of things in way that I would not want to be done, or some things that I would not like to have done at all. If you think about it, even if he campaigned as pro Bitcoin and did a lot of things that advanced that position he also did a lot of things that hurt Bitcoin in 2025. Let's see what 2026 will bring.

Yes his conduct in regards to bitcoin (and crypto) have been all over the place, and surely some not so good things by him or the various organizations connected to him, and perhaps even his kids.

Yes.. 2026. Let's see what happens.. I doubt that there are very many folks (including Trump and/or the efforts of folks in his Cabinets or various appointees) who are really trying to figure out ways that people are empowered by bitcoin - even though sometimes Trump or his various appointed folks will say some things or do some things that make it appear that they are supporting bitcoin rather than getting distracted by various cryptos or even being obsessed with ways to create CBDCs out of stable coins (privatized CBDCs) .. and yeah, it can be problematic to have Tether freezing coins (USDT) based on US government preferences and any of us might get caught up in some kind of a random freezing of the USDT that we might try to hold - which surely should cause pause in regarding how any of us might attempt to use some stable coin rather than BTC.  

We cannot address all of the ongoing attacks on bitcoin here, even though from my general perspective, there continue to be all kinds of ways that BTC is being attacked through KYC measures and/or paper bitcoin promotion that might contribute towards slower forms of attack on bitcoin in terms of ways that transacting through paper bitcoins or holding bitcoin paper products are given preferences, and direct ownership of bitcoin is ongoingly punished, even if lip service might be given - yet are the Samurai developers going to be released from Jail and/or have their sentences commuted and/or pardoned?   Trump is not in any kind of a hurry to fix those kinds of recent injustices (current events).

Signs in the heavenlies.

Also not fond of this recent push, I think we just broke support.  I'm thinking we need to jump up pretty quick back to the low 90s or 75 might be in the cards. I hate it, but that's kind of what it looks like.

Yes.

Ouch.

[philipma1957]

Well silver is allowing me to buy on the way down.

I may get some more.

[BTCETFInvestor]

 Strategy acquired 22,305 BTC, while institutional custody wallets added 577K BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also show large net inflows, signaling strong demand.

[philipma1957]

add more corn myself

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   933146  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.0442%  (1755 / 1827.28 expected, 72.28 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                           
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 140769230387742 and 140861161857177
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8938% and -3.8310%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:30 PM  (in 1d 21h 3m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:44 PM  (in 1d 21h 17m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 36m 24s and 14d 13h 50m 19s

these numbers will allow decent stacking for the next 15-16 days

I may get past 2 btc much sooner than planned.

[Biodom]

It could, but it doesn't mean that it would.

NVDA $30.47-36.64 gap (more than 20%) on 5/25/2023 gap never closed; it's still there after about 33 months.
The bitcoin equivalent would be a $18K gap.

Strange to see you mentioning CME gaps. You used to bash me for mentioning them. What’s next, an admission the 4-year cycle is real and you should have sold instead of screaming to buy at $120K?

Everyone comes to the same conclusion eventually. A good analyst comes to the conclusion when it is still early enough to profit from the analysis.

That 'analyst' never makes any predictions of value, expect beating his own chest, lol.

All of that "CME gap", '4 year cycle' , etc, etc are known by everyone, hence it is not any prediction or a prediction with zero value.

I guess "everyone" is just stupid and act as lemmings...fascinated by the putative 4 year cycles.
There are just $41mil bitcoin produced per day in an asset that trades 100bil.

This trickling cannot possibly have an effect and it doesn't (anymore).
The "cycle" is in the head of some OGs.
Let them sell their "cake"-more for us.
Capische?

92K (on Nov 17) or 88K-makes almost no difference.
That said, I don't believe in cycles any longer.
For example...if a war breakes out or a meteorite or a solar flare comes...what this would have had with the putative 'cycles'?
The COVID scare caused a 50% decline? Same thing-nothing to do with cycles.

Cycles are dead, bro. No more.
The only entities cycles are affecting are the miners, but the issuance of miners is so small, it is almost nothing in the big picture when someone gulps btc at 22k btc a shot (> 48 day issuance).
I am staying in the 'saddle' as long as I can.

I may trade stocks instead (plus, i listened to Elon and decided to reduce my ret fund allocations and increase spending).
Booyah!

[vapourminer]

Signs in the heavenlies.

Also not fond of this recent push, I think we just broke support.  I'm thinking we need to jump up pretty quick back to the low 90s or 75 might be in the cards. I hate it, but that's kind of what it looks like.

* makes old man shakes fist at clouds motions and grumbles loudly for good measure *

there, that should do it

[philipma1957]

Signs in the heavenlies.

Also not fond of this recent push, I think we just broke support.  I'm thinking we need to jump up pretty quick back to the low 90s or 75 might be in the cards. I hate it, but that's kind of what it looks like.

Will simply mean a good time to buy a bigger piece.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

err Buddy, 91101 is an curious number, impressive...



# i saw, buddy, 91, 91.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy pulling 89k

Well corn on sale

[OgNasty]

…

No way am I reading all that.

What I will say is that you talk one way, but your actions don’t support it.

You write about how people who sell are dumb and you aren’t because you never trade. Meanwhile your “sustainable withdrawal tool” tells that you sell Bitcoin to survive and have been a net seller for how many years now?

I own more BTC now than I did in 2018. Do you?

I will own more BTC at the end of this year than I do now. Will you?

I don’t ever have to sell another satoshi. Do you?

Want to be a real Bitcoin bull instead of pretending? Maybe you should start off by being a net accumulator instead of planning to live the rest of your life as a leech on the Bitcoin market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

…

No way am I reading all that.

Of course not.  It is likely too difficult for you.  And, in any case you are not genuinely trying to engage on the topic.

What I will say is that you talk one way, but your actions don’t support it.

You write about how people who sell are dumb and you aren’t because you never trade. Meanwhile your “sustainable withdrawal tool” tells that you sell Bitcoin to survive and have been a net seller for how many years now?

I am glad that you supposedly like my sustainable withdrawal ideas.  They are not contrary to anything that I am proclaiming in regards to getting to overaccumulation status prior to employing any selling techniques.  Once guys have reached overaccumulation status, then they have more options in terms of how to mange their bitcoin whether it is just maintaining the stash or even entering into some form of sustainable withdrawal practices..

I don't recommend selling BTC in order to accumulate more bitcoin, even though selling can work once we have already reached overaccumulation status, which then selling could serve as a form of downside protection or just a way to live off of ones bitcoin by drawing a regular income from it..

I consider that there are two types of sustainable withdrawal. One is price-based and the other is time-based.

I suspect that it is easy to employ price-based sustainable withdrawal, so in that sense it makes sense that price-based sustainable withdrawal might be reachable before time based sustainable withdrawal.  My sustainable withdrawal thread refers to both of the sustainable withdrawal styles.

My ideas about overaccumulation status have changed since 2015, so I am surely ongoingly flexible to different interpretations in regards to what levels of bitcoin accumulation might end up constituting overaccumulation status.

I could give examples, even though you surely don't seem interested in any genuine discussion but instead seeming to want to interpret my sustainable withdrawal ideas as if they were trading bitcoin or something like that (when they are not) and/or as if those sustainable withdrawal strategies were some variation of the same thing that you are doing, which truly does not seem to be the case since you seem to be a bit of a degenerate gambler... including a bit of a know it all attitude thrown in for a bonus without any system except to proclaim that you can feel where there might be tops and/or bottoms, and of course currently latching onto the four year cycle theory to support that your trading approach is a smart one..

I own more BTC now than I did in 2018. Do you?

That is good.

I probably own around the same amount... maybe it depends on the date in 2018.. I am not sure off the top of my head, I would have to look.

By the way, once a person reaches or gets into overaccumulation status, they do not need to continue to accumulate more bitcoin.  The idea of over accumulation means that more than enough bitcoin had already been accumulated, so the amounts of bitcoin that are above and beyond any kind of a bitcoin target can be sold off.  

I could give some examples that would be based on income levels, yet I don't really seem to need to do so, since you are not really interested in that part, you are largely just interested in trying to play gotcha and to show how much smarter you are because you are still accumulating bitcoin. I am not sure if still accumulating bitcoin is a good place to be, but you are at where you are at.

It seems to me that when a person is still in their bitcoin accumulation stage, then surely it would make sense for that person to still be continuously trying to own more bitcoin as the years pass.

Initially, I had determined that I had reached over accumulation status in 2015, yet I did still grow in my bitcoin in 2016 and early 2017, then I had to reassess my bitcoin stash around early 2017.  I was mostly just employing price based maintenance in 2017 through 2020-ish, and really I did not really figure out my time-based sustainable withdrawal until 2021 or 2022, even though I had ideas around time-based sustainable withdrawal they seem to become more solid in 2021 and 2022, especially when I gravitated more towards using the 200-WMA as my bitcoin valuation measure.

Are you wanting to compete with me or to compare yourself to me in terms of accumulation or maintenance or even liquidation?

Of course, you don't want to work with some of my earlier examples that show a person getting to overaccumulation status earlier in his bitcoin journey would help to provide more options, so you likely don't even agree on the framework for such a discussion..
 
Since you came to bitcoin in 2011, you could have had gotten to overaccumulation status in those first few years that you were in bitcoin, and perhaps you did end up reaching some level of overaccumulation, but then it seems to me that you tried to be smart and sell so that you could buy back cheaper in 2017, yet you had admitted to screwing up in 2017, and to even be still in your bitcoin accumulation stage.. yet your still ongoingly staying in your bitcoin accumulation phase might mean that you sold too much too early and knocked yourself out of overaccumulation (which I consider to be the most likely) or alternatively you might believe that there is no such thing as overaccumulation, and you think that you have to keep accumulating bitcoin until you die.. which seems a bit retarded if you believe that to be the case.. but hey I wouldn't put it past you..  
Of course, in order to potentially account for your 2017 screw up(s), in my last post, I had given an alternative scenario in which you could have had started to get serious about your bitcoin accumulation in early 2018  (which would have been around 6.5 years after you had already been registered on the forum) and then there could have had been ways that you could have had been able to get close to over accumulation status by the end of 2020 if you had focused on bitcoin accumulation during that 3-ish years period.

Of course, mine is just an example of some form of focus on bitcoin accumulation rather than trading (or gambling), so now you are wanting to proclaim that your trading of BTC strategy would have had beaten strategies that focus on bitcoin accumulation through buying and holding?

I surely have my doubts about those kinds of claims that trading would be able to beat buying and holding of BTC, especially if we go back 8 years or longer, even though you might want to make up your facts to support how you had beaten a strict BTC accumulation through buying strategy (and hold strategy), too.  And you might even want to argue shorter time periods, and sure there could be luck in shorter time periods, but if we go back 8 years or longer, then it becomes very hard to beat any strategy that focuses on bitcoin accumulating through buying (and not trading) and holding.

I will own more BTC at the end of this year than I do now. Will you?

I am not still in my BTC accumulation stage, so I probably won't own more BTC at the end of the year.  I am not really sure.  At this point in my BTC journey, I don't need to hold more BTC at any point in time.  When a person is at over accumulation status (like I am) it does not matter how many BTC they own now as compared to the end of the year (which is also true with me) since I have enough and more than enough BTC so that I don't have to trade BTC in order to try to accomplish anything..and I can also sell BTC to the extent that I want to or need to for buying goods and/or services.

It is funny how frequently I run across forum members who don't seem to understand that even if they had accumulated a certain quantity of BTC, at some point they might not need to continue to accumulate more BTC, and the BTC that they had already accumulated will ongoingly support higher and higher levels of withdrawal rates (in dollar terms) as time passes, especially if the 200-WMA is used as the way to valuate their BTC stash (since the 200-WMA has so far continued to go up.. so the value of the stash continues to go up if it is valuated in accordance with the 200-WMA, which is currently at $57.6k.).  

I proclaim that I have never been involved in trading bitcoin, even though I have employed both types of sustainable withdrawal strategies.. price based and time based, which means that when I sell any BTC, I do not sell such BTC with any intention to buy it back cheaper or that I need to buy it back cheaper, so for example with price based sustainable withdrawal if a person sells somewhere less than 10% of his holdings for every time that the price doubles, then 40% of the stash is still getting carried over and compounding upon itself as the price goes up. In my price based sustainable withdrawal, I think that I am selling somewhere around 3% of my stash size for every time the BTC price doubles... so the rate is pretty low, which means that 47% of the stash continues to roll over and compound upon itself for every time the BTC price doubles.  I post on the compounding effect and describe my own stash as going through 9 doublings since 2015 which results in compounding effects of 256x price appreciation.

I don’t ever have to sell another satoshi. Do you?

Once you reach overaccumulation status you don't need to keep accumulating bitcoin and you can sell BTC on a regular basis, either price-based and/or time-based, even though you still would have to figure out your numbers so that you don't sell too much too soon.

I have already structured my finances where i can sell BTC with either the price based or the time based sustainable withdrawal, and I don't want to change the system that I already have in place with variations of the price based sustainable withdrawal being employed since 2015, and perhaps the time-based sustainable withdrawal was not systematically employed until 2022 - even though there were some variations of my employing it prior to 2022.  Sometimes I have considered if there might be more ways for me to spend more money.

I will say that I do have sources of income besides bitcoin, and my bitcoin sales have been relatively modest in recent years, even though I have a few accounts that are kind of locked into time-based sustainable withdrawal since about 2022, yet they are selling lower amounts of BTC than what they could be authorized to sell... so there is quite a bit of more room for additional sales if I were to choose to go down that road..

Since I base my time-based sustainable withdrawal valuations of the BTC on the 200-WMA (which is currently at $57,600), so my time based sustainable withdrawal system allows for full withdrawal as long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, and then it reduces the withdrawal amounts if the BTC spot price goes lower than 25% higher than the 200-WMA.    Right now the spot price is about 55% higher than the 200-WMA.

Of course, there is a presumption of already being within overaccumulation status to employ something like time-based sustainable withdrawal, and I think that up to 10% of the 200-WMA dollar value of the holdings could be authorized and sustainable with a 7% increase in the dollar value of the withdrawal each year, yet there are guys who are concerned that such a high rate of withdrawal (including increasing the dollar amount by 7% each year) would overly deplete the funds, yet I don't think so, even though I am not opposed to the employment of lower withdrawal rates based on concerns about over depletion of the funds.

Also a person could have a higher amount of BTC.  So for example right now if a person wanted to have start an $80k  per year withdrawal rate with a 7% increase each year, then the minimum amount of Bitcoin (the threshold amount) would need to be at least 13.8936 BTC, and surely it could be better to have a bit more, such as even 1 BTC more if a person wanted to withdraw the whole first year from the start rather than withdrawing on a monthly basis.

Want to be a real Bitcoin bull instead of pretending? Maybe you should start off by being a net accumulator instead of planning to live the rest of your life as a leech on the Bitcoin market.

You are delusional.

If you get to overaccumulation status with the quantity of your bitcoin holdings, then you have options that include shaving off from the overaccumulation amount, yet if you want to stay in overaccumulation status, you should never withdraw so much BTC that the withdraw amount would knock you out of overaccumulation status.

If you are still accumulating BTC, then you have not made it to such overaccumulation status, and so I never suggest that it is a good idea to sell BTC in order to accumulate more BTC. That would be a bad practice and even a form of gambling since it employs luck rather than ongoing accumulation through ongoing buying, yet once you have reached overaccumulation status then you can sell from the excess BTC that you have.

Do you need an example?  

I just gave the example of having a desire to start to withdraw $80k per year requiring at least 13.8936 BTC.. Yet if a person had 18.8936 BTC, then he would have 5 BTC extra or his overaccumulation level would be 5 BTC... so he has extra 5 BTC that gives him a cushion as long as his annual withdrawal rate stays at $80k per year with the 7% increase each year.  If he changes his target number then his calculations change.

Of course you don't need any example since you are not even trying to engage in any kind of a meaningful discussion regarding what might constitute accumulation stage and getting through that BTC accumulation stage, then perhaps after getting through accumulation stage then guys might spend some time in their maintenance stage, an then after their maintenance stage, they would be in liquidation phase (which includes the employment of various sustainable withdrawal practices - even though price based sustainable withdrawal could probably start to be employed during maintenance stage).  

Surely the stages could overlap and maybe you are not sure which stage you are in, yet you talk about your being in accumulating bitcoin as if you are still in your BTC accumulation phase, and you might not have even made it to your maintenance stage yet.  Maybe you can clarify if it is something else?  Yet it could be true that you are not sure what stage you are in, and maybe you are in your maintenance stage, even though through your post you seem to be prioritizing continuing to accumulate more BTC as if that is a priority for you.  You are the best person to figure out which stage you happen to be in or even if you consider the stage as overlapping.

Perhaps also you have not even figured out how many bitcoin that you need in order to get to overaccumulation status, and I won't necessarily hold that against you, even though I do hold your lecturing about trading being preferential against you.  

Yet if you are still in a stage that you are still mostly trying to accumulate bitcoin, then it seems to be what you are saying that you are trying to do, then you might not be ready for maintenance stage or even for the ideas of liquidation stage.

At the same time, I had been criticizing you for bragging about supposedly working on and focusing on bitcoin accumulating when there could have been (and should have had been) a lot of ways that you could have had already reached overaccumulation status, yet you had been ongoingly bragging about the supposed ways that you were supposedly killing it in your bitcoin accumulation, even though from what you are saying it seems that you had not yet reached anything close to overaccumulation status (whether you know what that is or not might be another question.. there are some folks that believe that there is no limitation in regards to what they want.. so then they might be forcing themselves to always be in accumulation stage..  

I think that my example of focusing on accumulation between 2018 to 2020 could have had been a decently good time to reach some variation of overaccumulation status, even if you had already screwed up in 2017 by selling too many bitcoin too soon as you seemed to have had mentioned previously, but  maybe not realizing your mistake of selling too much BTC too soon until the BTC price had run up to $19,666 in late 2017.

Whether or not we should be arguing about these points, I do still stand by my earlier points that focusing on accumulation through buying only and holding is a better strategy for guys in their earlier years, and trading is not a good way to accumulate bitcoin, including that selling is not a good way to accumulate bitcoin.  

It seems to me that the better way to accumulate bitcoin is to focus on ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying only for at least for one or two cycles and maybe even until reaching overaccumulation status.

You seem to be arguing otherwise. You seem to be arguing that it is good to accumulate bitcoin through trading and selling, and maybe you are even arguing that guys should be accumulating bitcoin for their whole life, which truly does not seem necessary, from my point of view.

To me it seems that selling with an expectation of buying back cheaper puts too much risk and luck into the accumulation of bitcoin formula.. which does not have good chances of working out for an overwhelming majority of normies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hypebrother]

98k USD - 87k USD 

don't you realize that our public education is funded by the hurry back from lunch bonus and NGOs who enjoy peaceful serenity in the highest paid resorts and hotels?
calm your tits. it is fine to make money trading?

Trading is just a hedge tool?
Investment is Long Term?

Since we are averse to redacted bullshit since sometimes we forget something that is important upstairs, yes?

by the way, I has found a way to run CS2 in ubuntu, which is better than windows bullshit app with logger - which comes with free or 2$ enterprise key from Indian tech support.

please enjoy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rx0jxhdN5M

[JayJuanGee]

98k USD - 87k USD 

don't you realize that our public education is funded by the hurry back from lunch bonus and NGOs who enjoy peaceful serenity in the highest paid resorts and hotels?
calm your tits. it is fine to make money trading?

Trading is just a hedge tool?
Investment is Long Term?
Since we are averse to redacted bullshit since sometimes we forget something that is important upstairs, yes?

In bitcoin the traders are not likely to be making money, especially if we look at performance over 8 years or longer.  Sure, you might think that you are making money by trading, yet if you compare yourself to those who accumulated bitcoin and held, the chances are pretty low that you would have had been able to beat a buy and hold strategy...

So sure, a lot of traders think that they are smart asses, but they cannot even beat a DCA strategy, especially if the timeline is 8 years or longer.