Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

In all the markets these spurts seem to come out of nowhere, as if one investor or a small group of investors suddenly decided to buy, not caring for slippage (or, on purpose, trying to lift the price).  The rest of the market then just accepted the new price (except for the last spurt to 524 USD/3195 CNY, which was soon undone).

Reminds me of the Mar/03 jump, for which I still know of no explanation.  That one apparently started with a couple of large buys on bitstamp.

On the other hand, in all markets that I can see these recent spurts are spread over 10-15 minutes, which suggests that they are not local, but are being carried over from some other market by arbitrage.  But which is the "source" market then?  On Coinbase the spurts seem to be "sharper" than the others, is that the source?

Jorge, it is so painfully obvious that you operate under some seriously constrictive, empirically unsustainable assumptions about markets in general and price discovery in particular that it'd be pointless to discuss this topic with you.

Convince yourself of the unlikeliness of (at least the strong forms of) the EMH, or worse, the RWH, and we talk :D

[ShroomsKit]

somebody removed 800 from the sell side at 528 and market sold it.

congratulations to such a smart move

Please explain.

[blatchcorn]

Rally is coming

[elg]

And the buys, a few hours ago, how can they happen at all exchanges at once?

[Cassius]

In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?

[zimmah]

Every time price remaining over 500 is healthy for TA. I'm waiting 2 green candles more tonight.

currently it is still stuck between the 508 support line (it was a resistance line but it turned to support) and the 516 resistance line.

[oda.krell]

In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?

Serious question, sorry for the cluelessness... where do they even trade Ripple in quantity?

[hdbuck]

In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?

Jed Mcalebd unleashing hell on ripple (selling 9Bn XRP)
https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/

darkcoin: regular pump before it eventually fades into the abyssal alts graveyard.

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, it is so painfully obvious that you operate under some seriously constrictive, empirically unsustainable assumptions about markets in general and price discovery in particular that it'd be pointless to discuss this topic with you.

Well, please write for the other readers then.  "Never underestimate the pleasure people feel when being told something that they already know."  (That was Fermi's IIRC.)

Convince yourself of the unlikeliness of (at least the strong forms of) the EMH, or worse, the RWH, and we talk

I don't believe in the EMH (and can't even imagine how it could be applied to an insubstantial asset like bitcoin).

Also I do not believe that price is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these).  The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes.  The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice.  Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.

[Cassius]

In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?

Jed Mcalebd unleashing hell on ripple (selling 9Bn XRP)
https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/

darkcoin: regular pump before it eventually fades into the abyssal alts graveyard.

 

Oda: various 'gateways', including Stamp and other exchanges. Don't know much about it myself.

[JorgeStolfi]

And the buys, a few hours ago, how can they happen at all exchanges at once?

Arbitrage trading keeps price in sync across all exchanges, with delays under one minute usually.  Because of arbitrage, a single large move at one exchange momentarily reversed there and duplicated it at the other exchanges, almost at the same time.

[el_rlee]

somebody removed 800 from the sell side at 528 and market sold it.

congratulations to such a smart move

Please explain.

Sarcasm.

[oda.krell]

Also I do not believe that price is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these).  The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes.  The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice.  Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.

Oh, no problem with that. I can understand that you'd remain skeptical about it as long as those who practice it fail to present it as a coherent theory that is testable. Which won't happen during my life time, I'm afraid :/

It does remind however of a mid-60s computer scientist probing a GM level chess player to explain his reasoning re: opening theory, then throwing his hands in the air when the answers are not only informal, but seem to be unformalizable even. Then, throwing them up even more when said GM beats his primitive alpha-beta machine 9-1.

Similar with your original questions: "these spurts seem to come out of nowhere, as if one investor or a small group of investors suddenly decided to buy," "... which is the "source" market then?". Any answer you or I could give to those questions won't hold up to the rigor you demand whenever it suits you. Therefore: "Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen.", don't you think?

[ShroomsKit]

somebody removed 800 from the sell side at 528 and market sold it.

congratulations to such a smart move

Please explain.

Sarcasm.

Ok

[elg]

And the buys, a few hours ago, how can they happen at all exchanges at once?

Arbitrage trading keeps price in sync across all exchanges, with delays under one minute usually.  Because of arbitrage, a single large move at one exchange momentarily reversed there and duplicated it at the other exchanges, almost at the same time.

Thanks Jorge, indeed the only thing i could think of, but thought wasn't true, because of the rather high volume

[dreamspark]

Reminds me of the Mar/03 jump, for which I still know of no explanation.  That one apparently started with a couple of large buys on bitstamp.

Because Bitcoin. Get used to it, your going to spend a lot of time scratching your head if your trying to find micro reasons for price jumps. Especially when you don't seem to have, even after several months, a true understanding of what makes it valuable to others who don't share your views.

[CoinRocka]

I believe this surge is due in no small part to the recent attempts by China and Russia to undermine the USD.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Get used to it, your going to spend a lot of time scratching your head if your trying to find micro reasons for price jumps. Especially when you don't seem to have, even after several months, a true understanding of what makes it valuable to others who don't share your views.

Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations.  The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc..  Scratching the head not only seems to work, but I can't see how one could expect to predict price moves and trends without trying to predict such external causes (which unfortunately are largely unpredictable).

It is obvious that the true believers have run out of money, for otherwise they would buy every bitcoin in sight, at any price.  Those traders offering bitcoins for sale at 550$, or buying only at 450$, obviously do not believe that it will be worth 2000$ by the end of the year, or 1'000'000$ in ten years.  They are implicitly assuming much less than one chance in 2000 of the latter happening.

[tuneman1980]

Very nice, CoinDesk is showing $509!

http://cryptocoinstats.com/pricetracker.php