Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

What if Hedge Fund(s) have started to sell? Could it be the source of so many damn coins?

What if we had no need of speculating about this and could look up historical action of one particular BTC fund? https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=337486.0

What if we could use this as an indication for other funds where we do not have the data?

What if the people pumping/hyping GABI had confronted reality and done this, maybe they would have been less disappointed now? 

SMBIT is an excellent contrarian indicator.

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

[Sandia]

Meanwhile consolidation on Stamp and Finex is not finished yet. You will all left behind when it skyrocks with a breakout upwards  

People talking about sky rockets for months.

And no sky rocket so far, only downwards

It was a semi-joke. Not a joke as consolidation in fact has not ended yet, but it looks quite bearish and nothing seems to indicate a breakuout upwards. ~400 is quite likely, ~300 also seems reasonable, and there is even potencial for a further capitulation.

I will say it again, and get mocked for it again:

If btc goes below 340-350, there is no future for btc.  We have already lost so many new adopters this year.  Expecting anyone with a buy in from 2014 to stick around for a 40-70% drop in value is ludicrous.  Long-term growth is based on adoption, not short-term greed.  It would be a Pyrrhic victory for the whales who engineered it. (Exponential growth implies exponential adoption, which implies that the vast majority of btc owners are from 2014, amirite?)

Inb4 is btc dead AGAIN, remember 2012, stupid newbie (who has owned coins for 3 years...), there is no such thing as manipulation, this is consolidation, this is is the accumulation stage, etc.

Discussion question: do the vast majority of early adopters believe in btc, or are they trying to get as much money out of the next "bubble" as possible, then run with the fiat?  And the follow up question: does evidence from the market support one side or the other of question #1?  Scary for those who think, tragic for those who feel.

I am going to drink some Chang draft for the next few weeks, and try not to pray for a crash.

[Wilhelm]

What if Hedge Fund(s) have started to sell? Could it be the source of so many damn coins?

What if we had no need of speculating about this and could look up historical action of one particular BTC fund? https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=337486.0

What if we could use this as an indication for other funds where we do not have the data?

What if the people pumping/hyping GABI had confronted reality and done this, maybe they would have been less disappointed now? 

SMBIT is an excellent contrarian indicator.

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

When the wave comes you need to be there to ride it.

[adamstgBit]

cut your looses now         

[Bittings]

cut your looses now         

CUT LOOSE YOUR INFLATING FIAT!

[adamstgBit]

new wall on stamps just below 500

CUT YOUR LOOSE!

[N12]

CYL MOTHERFUCKERS

[madmat]

What if Hedge Fund(s) have started to sell? Could it be the source of so many damn coins?

What if we had no need of speculating about this and could look up historical action of one particular BTC fund? https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=337486.0

What if we could use this as an indication for other funds where we do not have the data?

What if the people pumping/hyping GABI had confronted reality and done this, maybe they would have been less disappointed now? 

SMBIT is an excellent contrarian indicator.

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

How do you know that ?

[adamstgBit]

CYLMF

[aminorex]

I don't think they have time to do a lot of development on Monero, they just view it as amazing technology and support the development of it.

Everybody wants to be in on the action, the cutting edge.  It's a big hammer, so everyone wants it in their toolbox.  They also want to be first to know if the picture changes in a big way, often because they are invested.   There have been prototyping projects which attempted to incorporate ring signature privacy enhancements into the btc codebase.  It is not deemed politically viable to do so in the live net, however. Several of them have reviewed code, reviewed whitepapers, advised on the day-to-day realities of maintaining a live coin codebase, advised on architectural choices for the future robustness of XMR.  Some have volunteered, and some have been compensated.

Buyers usually start on XMR because it hedges on BTC, by providing technical remedies to some of its potential vulnerabilities, in a hot, ready-to-use, liquid (relative to alts) coin. No responsible person on the BTC core team should make public their investments in other coins, in my opinion.

I don't regard Monero as a pump n dump, sure it will have bubbles like everything else. But I believe it is a longterm coin...

XMR is likely among the least volatile alts, because there are active market-makers, and an OTC options market.  Also, relatively high emission is like a constant rain of hail, popping all speculative bubbles.  Pump-n-dump'ers hate that.

It is infeasible for anyone with less than a couple of million risk dollars to pump-n-dump XMR today, and that number will grow with liquidity, but fall with declining emission, over the next few years.  If liquidity rises fast enough, it will always be infeasible.

The regulators will understand that they are impossible to enforce.

Not until they are steam-rolled by overwhelming forces.  Fortunately there is a diversity of jurisdictions, yet.  As long as that is true, it will be feasible to maintain security in your private affairs.  Eventually, it may not be true, but by then the vested powers will be so heavily into private crypto that their toady regulators will not be a problem.  

In other words:  Not a problem now.  Plenty of work-arounds if it becomes a problem for a while.  Not a problem in the long run.

Privacy is a solution, not a problem.  It's a solution for a different space than bitcoin.  Bitcoin is best for medium-latency publicly published financial records.  XMR is best for low-latency private financial transactions.  It's more like hard cash, less like a registered bond.

[aminorex]

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

How do you know that ?

I have consulting relationships with people who have told me that they were doing it.  I consider their statements to be factual because of context.  

EDIT: To clarify:  To get a pension fund to entrust you with a billion dollars of other people's money, you have to have strong credibility.  You can't talk smack.  When someone like that does you the favor of disclosing information to you out of kindness or collegiality, you need to take it seriously, or you will suffer for it.  I prefer not to suffer, therefore I take it seriously.  I do not have that credibility.  I'm just a nym in the tubes, and I talk smack whenever I feel like it, so you don't need to take my info seriously.

EDIT EDIT:  My speculation is based on the fact that difficulty continues to rise exponentially.  Eventually self-help will be called on those contracts.  If it happens simultaneously with the listing of COIN on NASDAQ, well...  TEOTWAWKI.

EDIT EDIT EDIT:  BTW, monkey thinks long bond goes up intraday,  downside is 136, upside is 136 1/2 on USZ4.  Monkey is a temporary bond bull.  I give it 3 days.  Then he is a scary bear on u.s. duration, during october.  FOMC has often frustrated the monkey, however.

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Bad monkey.

[oda.krell]

If btc goes below 340-350, there is no future for btc.

2011 wants to have a word with you.

$32 to $2. That was a sharp drop, not this down 75% chicken shit we might be seeing now.

Still, two years later, $260, then $1200.


What I'm saying is, try to avoid claims about the "future for btc" based on current price. I'm about as bearish as it gets, currently, but you don't see me throwing hissy fits about how Bitcoin is dead because we're in a bear market (and might stay in it even longer).

[madmat]

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

How do you know that ?

I have consulting relationships with people who have told me that they were doing it.  I consider their statements to be factual because of context.

Ok, thanks for this information. It is consolidating my opinion: price on exchanges is much lower than it should be. I am very optimist for the value of my bitcoins.

[klee]

What if Hedge Fund(s) have started to sell? Could it be the source of so many damn coins?

What if we had no need of speculating about this and could look up historical action of one particular BTC fund? https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=337486.0

What if we could use this as an indication for other funds where we do not have the data?

What if the people pumping/hyping GABI had confronted reality and done this, maybe they would have been less disappointed now? 

SMBIT is an excellent contrarian indicator.

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

That is so wicked it is probably true!!!

[Hunyadi]

Smart money is dumping btc on exchanges to hold down marks for contract coins.  This much I know for a fact.  I then speculate:  When that dam breaks, there will be a mighty wave.

How do you know that ?

I have consulting relationships with people who have told me that they were doing it.  I consider their statements to be factual because of context.

Ok, thanks for this information. It is consolidating my opinion: price on exchanges is much lower than it should be. I am very optimist for the value of my bitcoins.

Good to hear confirmation of this. If we can trust Aminorex 

[adamstgBit]

this market is bad shit crazy.

[Hunyadi]

this market is bad shit crazy.

+1

[aminorex]

If we can trust Aminorex 

You can take your advice from an imaginary cyborg monkey ridden by a whiskey-swilling amphetamine-chewing hacker ex-cowboy if you wish....I doubt you will get far with the judge however.

[Schickeria]

Meanwhile consolidation on Stamp and Finex is not finished yet. You will all left behind when it skyrocks with a breakout upwards  

People talking about sky rockets for months.

And no sky rocket so far, only downwards

It was a semi-joke. Not a joke as consolidation in fact has not ended yet, but it looks quite bearish and nothing seems to indicate a breakuout upwards. ~400 is quite likely, ~300 also seems reasonable, and there is even potencial for a further capitulation.

I will say it again, and get mocked for it again:

If btc goes below 340-350, there is no future for btc.  We have already lost so many new adopters this year.  Expecting anyone with a buy in from 2014 to stick around for a 40-70% drop in value is ludicrous.  Long-term growth is based on adoption, not short-term greed.  It would be a Pyrrhic victory for the whales who engineered it. (Exponential growth implies exponential adoption, which implies that the vast majority of btc owners are from 2014, amirite?)

Inb4 is btc dead AGAIN, remember 2012, stupid newbie (who has owned coins for 3 years...), there is no such thing as manipulation, this is consolidation, this is is the accumulation stage, etc.

Discussion question: do the vast majority of early adopters believe in btc, or are they trying to get as much money out of the next "bubble" as possible, then run with the fiat?  And the follow up question: does evidence from the market support one side or the other of question #1?  Scary for those who think, tragic for those who feel.

I am going to drink some Chang draft for the next few weeks, and try not to pray for a crash.

I don't agree.

First let me explain the potencial capitulation aspect. It looks like that over the past years a lot of market participants have developted some very naive kind of market perspective, that implies we top out at some point and after that we have a bear market to 0.3 - 0.25 of the top only to repeat the same pattern until we reach 1,000,000$ and beyond. Now breaking below 340, could effect a cascade of Get-Rich-Quick Holders to unload their cold wallets and we could see a cascade of heavy selling waves forcing a capitulation.

This possible cataclysm has not has to materialize never, but it's far away from delusional bearish dreaming. If we now draw a mid sized cataclysm of a capitulation low to ~220 you really mean this would be the end of bitcoin? I say, no! I say the market only would liberate hisself from exaggerated expectation, and from people who mean they can calculate market movements by counting 1 + 1 = 2.

Regarding your point of new adopters: in this early stage of bitcoin they have no big impact to the markets. They market makers, the ruling traders etc. have an impact. New adopters are like flies smelling shit, they go away when there's nothing to earn, only to come back as a bigger crowd when weather is bettering.

As I said, capitulation has not to materialize, but if it does you should stop kinda thinking that many called permabulls here have. A lot of them  (not all - as there are of course some real believers) will sell and than quitle likely beeing trapped. Hold, sell now, buy now, do what you want but don't sell into a capitulation and don't believe capitulation would mean the end of bitcoin, it likely would mean the contrary.