Dude, your generous spirit and kind heart are things I can even feel from continents away... I do hope one day to sit with you and share a drink. Also maybe to play some poker, though I do not think I stand much chance there...
It's been a while since I have played one of these. This is more of a "turbo" as we are talking about a very short timeframe. Our current bull is in a stalled/consolidation phase. This could EASILY continue and BTC could be at 0 change +/- 5% as some here are predicting. But I am going to take a bet that the Elon pop is analagous to one of the moving average touchdowns from previous bull markets, and we should shortly see the price moving up again from here. I am going to use this time frame from Sep-Oct 17 as am analog for May-June 21.
This represents a 1.875x gain in that month timeframe.
Using ~47k as a bottom that puts us at 88125
Now let us consider the previous touchdown from 17 in July...
In that timeframe we saw a 2.27x rise.
Using ~47k as a bottom that puts us at 106830.
Now... Some models take into account that each bull market has a smaller raw increase than the last. Using voodoo I can say 2 halvings ago might have shown a 36x rise (~30-1100), the last halving a 18x (1100-20k), so lets assume we halve the multiple again.
We shall apply that scale difference by taking my two numbers above, average them and then divide the difference by half and adding that to the approximate touchdown price this time around, and voila there is our number:
(((106830+88125)/2-47000)/2)+47000=
72239
