Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

[Obulis]

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Most folks who are merely investing DCA from their income, they might ONLY be able to invest 10% or less of their income, so if a person invests 10% of his income, it would take around 10 years for him to have had put a whole year of his salary into bitcoin.. and so frequently we have the investment being a product of both time and how much we put into it, so some guys get excited to cash out their profits, but if they have not put very much into bitcoin, then their profits would be less likely to be meaningful.  We have all kinds of examples through bitcoin's history where guys had been cashing out way too many bitcoin too soon because they got interested in short term profits, but then they ended up selling way too many bitcoin too soon and ultimately were not really managing their bitcoin holdings in a way that would really bring meaning to their fnances and their overall net worth.

Of course ,If you are  only putting 10% or less of your income into Bitcoin, you have gotta accept that it is a slow game. It is  like filling a jar with coins,  at first it feels like nothing is happening, then one day you realize it is  really actually getting pretty heavy. The problem is, a lot of people don’t wait for that heavy jar moment. They see a little green in their portfolio, get excited, and sell ,  then a few years later they are kicking themselves because those small gains could have been life changing if they just held on.

I still remember one guy on who told his sad or should i  say unfortunate story on Reddit, who sold his whole stack for a used Honda Civic back in 2016. At the time, it felt like a smart move because he bought a new car, feeling good. Fast forward to today, and those same coins could have bought him a house… maybe two. That is  the  beauty of  Bitcoin, u will need to have patience, look into the long term, because the short term wins can trick you into missing the big picture. If you want it to actually move the needle in your life, you have  to give it time to do its thing.

Yep.. it is a slow process to accumulate bitcoin, and it is not good to interrupt the process.
Regarding the Honda Civic in 2016, we can do an approximate estimate that if the guy bought a medium priced Honda Civic in 2016, he may well might have ended up spending around $20k...

So bitcoin in 2016 ranged from $350 to $900.  Let's say that he sold around $700... so then he needed to have right around 28.5 BTC in 2016 to generate $20k of cash.
Right now 28.5 BTC has a 200-WMA of $1.5 million and a spot price of $3.4 million.  Surely right now, any of us could do quite a bit with 28.5 BTC, whether we started to generate income off of it or we cashed out chunks of it.  The current sustainable income from 28.5 bitcoin would be $146k per year.

Generally lump sum cashing out for consumption (or even investing in something else that is usually going to be inferior) is not a good idea or a good way for a person to manage their BTC holdings.

This your analysis or point really shows how crazy the difference can be over time. Selling 28.5 BTC for a car back in 2016 might have felt smart at the time, but now, That same stack could have changed his whole life. It’s wild to think about. He traded something that could’ve made him a millionaire for a car that’s probably not even running anymore.

And to be also be honest with you, I  also did the same thing,  In my first year I sold a chunk of my Bitcoin, both the gains and some of my stash, and spent it on things that honestly didn’t even make much sense. At the time it felt good and it felt like the earth was just spinning around me alone, but looking back I wish I had known better. Once I really understood what long term holding means I was able to chill and stop making those quick decisions. It’s all about learning and growing right thou ......The hardest part is staying patient when the price goes up. People see green and want to take profits, but if you treat Bitcoin like long term savings it changes how you think.

Yep.  I am not really sure how any of us can make sure that we have the right mindset because it can become quite tempting to sell and to take some profits, and the guy may have had sold the 28.5 bitcoin with around 2x profits.. so he was selling out of profits since maybe he bought the coins at $350 or less... then at the same time, he just took for granted the significance of his having had accumulated that many coins...

And currently we have guys who may have had bought a lot of coins in the $17k to $35k prices through 2022 and 2023, so they might not even realize how valuable it is merely to have had accumulated so many bitcoin at those prices, and so some of them were selling their bitcoin at around $100k, so they ended up getting 3x and 4x profits, but then they are never going to be able to accumulate the quantity of bitcoin that they were able to accumulate in 2022 and 2023 for the amount of dollars that they put into their investment.

We have seen that so many times in bitcoin, and guys are not able to come even close to buying back the quantity of coins that they ended up selling, and they don't realize how difficult it will be to get that quantity of coins in the future.

It is hard to see while we are in the midst of the price, and even our current prices could well end up being really good when it comes to a few years down the road, and even 5-10 years down the road, and right now  we can accumulate as much bitcoin that we want at the current $117k-ish prices.

For sure. Very critical, having the right mindset in the "moment" when the price goes up and profits are calculated right there, not selling too early takes so much discipline with long-term vision. By now lessons should have been learnt from others, many people, like you mentioned, looks back and realize they undervalued what they had.

Accumulating Bitcoin some years back like in 2022 and 2023 was not flashy, it was strategic. Like now, even though $117k seems high, it might actually look cheap 5 to 10 years from now, just as $17k or $35k looks cheap today when it comes to holding Bitcoin asset.

It’s hard, but being focused on long-term conviction instead of short term profits is what separates two classes of people (people who keep wealth and people who just taste it for a moment).
I believe emotional intelligence and personal need assessment can help to harness discipline and long-term vision.

[Nathrixxx]

Sometimes the market may seems to appear against our direction, but it's nothing than a temporary market behavior which we are not supposed to count as what could make us fear and sell, because some will be made to react towards market behaviors like this and if we don't planned and get prepared hahead of these, we may think that we must sell in other to avoid going bearish together with the market the more, when we should be holding the more, these are part of the mistakes our newbies engaged, because they are yet to fully understand what everything is about in bitcoin investment, as in knowing the best buying or selling point before taking any action.

[JayJuanGee]

[Edited Out]Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time,

Of course sir Jay,  we have the right to judge and modify our Bitcoin accumulation approach. Let me back this up with an example

For instance, Mr. A has been acumulating Bitcoin by investing a fixed amount of money every month. Things were going very smooth until he got demoted at work, and this demotion reduced his income. After this incident, he had two choices- either pause his acumulation completely, or adjust the amount he was investing. Mr A choose the smarter approach by reducing the amount instead of stopping his investment entirely. Even though it wasn’t as much as before, he kept on building consistently

Sure, frequently the answer regarding the better ways to approach the matter will relate to the details of the situation, especially since changes are ongoing. 

There could be times in which the income is absolutely similar each month and/or times that income is similar each month, and there might also be wiggle room in each of these two matters.

Even a person who might have a fairly stable situation, he might find that some kind of changes might come, yet he also might decide to dedicate some of his time to causing changes that might come in the future, such as if he might be looking for another job or maybe he is studying  a certain kind of skill (like computer programming), and the speed upon which he gains the skills and maybe spends time "making connections" with certain people might contribute towards his being able to get increases in his income, even though in the short term, he might have to spend time, money and energy to build certain skills that might lead to such income improvement results, and sometimes he might not even know if he invests in a certain direction if he will see improvements to his income in the future, but he still might want to invest into learning such skills.

Now let us compare what happened to Mr A with what Mr. B, who faced the same challenge( he got demoted at work). As a result of this Mr B. decided to stop his Bitcoin investment completely because he couldn’t keep up with his original plan. Over the years, Mr. A, with smaller but consistent contributions, eventually ended up with more stash of Bitcoin than Mr. B.

The lesson to be learnt here is that flexibility doesn’t weaken your plan, it rather strengthen it overtime. A rigid approach may sound good but life doesn’t always go out as we planned it to be. That is why being able to adjust your plan while staying committed is what makes your Bitcoin accumulation journey sustainable in the long run.

We agree that being persistent and continuing to invest is likely a better decision, yet guys will sometimes not realize the impact of what they are doing, and so they might not even really feel any large difference for 4-6 years later, and then by the time that they realize that they had taken a less preferred (less profitable) path, it will be way too late to go back and do the situation over, so sometimes even a $10 to $50 per week contribution over 4-6 years might end up paying off, even if previously the guy  had been able to invest $100 per week, and so sometimes even small amounts compound upon themselves.

I had a situation in which I was investing into bitcoin between late 2013 and early 2015 and the BTC prices largely went down from around $1,100 in late 2013 to around $250 through much of 2015.

I had been investing at higher prices so by the time early 2015 came, I had an average cost per BTC that were right around $550, but the then prices were right around $250.  I had some cashflow problems with income going down and some needs to cut expenses based on the income going down, so there were several months that I could not buy any bitcoin at all, even though the BTC prices were generally low, but at the same time, I did not have enough discretionary income in order to justify buying bitcoin, so I figured out a plan that as my income started to normalize, any times that i received some extra income, then I would split it in half.  Half of it would be used to buy bitcoin and the other half would be used to put in my various expected expenses.l  So then there were a few months of complete dry period, then a few months of scattered buy and then a few months were I was again able to buy more regularly... so that was a tough period, yet you can imagine during that period in 2015, if I had a situation where an additional $100 came in, and then I decided to buy $50 of bitcoin, I would get 0.2 BTC for that $50, and so the amounts that I put in were seemingly small, but they ended up having really great payoffs further down the road... even though at the time, I considered that my income and my expenses were messed up for more than half of 2015... The second half of 2015 was more normalized but still with a bit more tightness than what had existed prior to January 2015.

During that time, there were quite a few people who were suggesting that I sell what I had rather than continuing to buy more BTC, even though the buy amounts were not a lot and they were a bit scattered.

Of course, we cannot go back to 2015, yet there were similar kind of dynamics between 2018 and 2020 in which the BTC price spent a lot of time between $5k and $9k, and even though there was a lot of price variation even beyond those prices, a lot of bitcoin could have been accumulated between the $5k and $9k range.  Similar in 2022 and 2023, there was a lot of time that the BTC price spent between $17k and $35k.. and yeah better to have been able to buy cheaper, yet even the $35k prices are not seeming too bad right now, if they were to ever be possible again.

Right now I am getting the sense that sub $75k will never happen again, even though I cannot be sure, and it is even possible that sub $112k will never be seen again... so even between mid-November 2024 to June 2025 we spent quite a bit of time between $85k and $106k, which I get the sense that those would have been good prices to buy bitcoin, yet there were a decent number of folks selling between $85k and $106k in that late 2024 to mid-2025 time period... and yeah history has not been written yet, so it is possible that we could return to that area, yet it is not even close to guaranteed that such return will happen.

Ongoingly, we can ONLY deal with what is in front of us, and if we are not regularly buying, then we might end up not being able to stack as much as we could have had stacked during earlier periods.

[Churchillvv]

We agree that being persistent and continuing to invest is likely a better decision, yet guys will sometimes not realize the impact of what they are doing, and so they might not even really feel any large difference for 4-6 years later, and then by the time that they realize that they had taken a less preferred (less profitable) path, it will be way too late to go back and do the situation over, so sometimes even a $10 to $50 per week contribution over 4-6 years might end up paying off, even if previously the guy  had been able to invest $100 per week, and so sometimes even small amounts compound upon themselves.

Perhaps compounding powers are always undermined by many, it always remind of the quote that says “little drop of water makes a might ocean” DCA at this is some form of tool that can easily get one few steps ahead of others who will probably wait for the best time, in waiting comes disappointment and that leads some who rush in to the bitcoin markets to grab quick profit which bitcoin is never a get rich quick scheme to spread misinformation about bitcoin, however if one risk or figures out how to spend at least $10 dollars off their expenses to invest in bitcoin in 2 cycles of bitcoin it would not longer seem like a merely $10 investment hence it’s more encouraging to risk or take a step in investing through DCA the little you can afford to do without in a long term.

[ejikeme24]

[Edited Out]
Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time,

Of course sir Jay,  we have the right to judge and modify our Bitcoin accumulation approach. Let me back this up with an example

For instance, Mr. A has been acumulating Bitcoin by investing a fixed amount of money every month. Things were going very smooth until he got demoted at work, and this demotion reduced his income. After this incident, he had two choices- either pause his acumulation completely, or adjust the amount he was investing. Mr A choose the smarter approach by reducing the amount instead of stopping his investment entirely. Even though it wasn’t as much as before, he kept on building consistently

Yeah, instead of pausing the accumulation journey entirely when you have not build a large bitcoin portfolio or getting to the stage of overaccumulation is better you make some adjustment let's say if your weekly or monthly purchase is $500 Maybe due to circumstances you can choose to reduce it to $300 to enable you take care of other expenses and also build your emergency fund and still have some reserve funds, the most important thing is you're maintaining the ongoing buying of bitcoin. Maybe with time you will find another job and start going with your fixed amount, in some cases a Guy can even decide to be more aggressive after he must have get a more decent job, to enable him achieve that same value Which he intend to get before the incident.

[JayJuanGee]

We agree that being persistent and continuing to invest is likely a better decision, yet guys will sometimes not realize the impact of what they are doing, and so they might not even really feel any large difference for 4-6 years later, and then by the time that they realize that they had taken a less preferred (less profitable) path, it will be way too late to go back and do the situation over, so sometimes even a $10 to $50 per week contribution over 4-6 years might end up paying off, even if previously the guy  had been able to invest $100 per week, and so sometimes even small amounts compound upon themselves.

Perhaps compounding powers are always undermined by many, it always remind of the quote that says “little drop of water makes a might ocean” DCA at this is some form of tool that can easily get one few steps ahead of others who will probably wait for the best time, in waiting comes disappointment and that leads some who rush in to the bitcoin markets to grab quick profit which bitcoin is never a get rich quick scheme to spread misinformation about bitcoin, however if one risk or figures out how to spend at least $10 dollars off their expenses to invest in bitcoin in 2 cycles of bitcoin it would not longer seem like a merely $10 investment hence it’s more encouraging to risk or take a step in investing through DCA the little you can afford to do without in a long term.

There may be some folks who shave off $10 here and there and they spend another $100  or $1k, and they consider it to be such a convenience, yet they are either still in their accumulation phase and/or they have not yet reached overaccumulation status, so they should be spending and replacing if they come across circumstances in which they end up spending their bitcoin prior to reaching overaccumulation status.

Surely people can do what they like.. and even imagine a guy who earns $50k per year, and he had been investing into bitcoin at $200 per week for 6 years, so he invested around $62k, and he accumulated 3 BTC, and so he is really feeling good about his whole situation.  He is still quite a bit short of reaching overaccumulation status since he would like to be able to draw an $80k per year bitcoin income, yet at the same time, he is wanting to discontinue accumulating bitcoin and he is wanting to spend some bitcoin from time to time since he does not have any other investments.  This guy might be o.k. to stop investing into bitcoin and to invest into other things, but if he starts to spend from his bitcoin too early then it might take him a bit of time to reach his own overaccumulation status., and currently it is likely that by mid-2031 around 6 years from now, even if he does not accumulate any more bitcoin, 3 BTC might be enough to be able to perpetually sustain an $80k per year income off of it.

My tentative recommendation would be to keep accumulating bitcoin until maybe the timeline for starting to withdraw from your bitcoin stash is less than 4 years from that time that you stop accumulating, which largely means no bitcoin sales (except spend and replace) until reaching overaccumulation status and if you feel like not continuing to accumulate then you could stop up to 4 years prior to your starting to withdraw, even though you could still be advantaged by continuing to accumulate.

[Edited Out]
Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time,

Of course sir Jay,  we have the right to judge and modify our Bitcoin accumulation approach. Let me back this up with an example

For instance, Mr. A has been acumulating Bitcoin by investing a fixed amount of money every month. Things were going very smooth until he got demoted at work, and this demotion reduced his income. After this incident, he had two choices- either pause his acumulation completely, or adjust the amount he was investing. Mr A choose the smarter approach by reducing the amount instead of stopping his investment entirely. Even though it wasn’t as much as before, he kept on building consistently

Yeah, instead of pausing the accumulation journey entirely when you have not build a large bitcoin portfolio or getting to the stage of overaccumulation is better you make some adjustment let's say if your weekly or monthly purchase is $500 Maybe due to circumstances you can choose to reduce it to $300 to enable you take care of other expenses and also build your emergency fund and still have some reserve funds, the most important thing is you're maintaining the ongoing buying of bitcoin. Maybe with time you will find another job and start going with your fixed amount, in some cases a Guy can even decide to be more aggressive after he must have get a more decent job, to enable him achieve that same value Which he intend to get before the incident.

It can be assumed that from time to time guys might get promotions and/or considerable increases in his take home pay, which could incentivize him to continue to invest in bitcoin and/or to invest into bitcoin at a higher level.

At the same time, you are correct that there can be times when a guy starts getting close to reaching overaccumullation status that he becomes less inclined to continue to contribute into his bitcoin funds.

[ruykeri]

It's better that we don't use timeline as the main focus on our bitcoin accumulation journey because it will depreive us from accumulating as many bitcoin as possible overtime. Instead, you should have a bitcoin target which you will plan to accumulate so that you can focus on that quantity till you achieve it irrespective of the time duration that you will use to accumulate it. S that, you can know when you are entering an over accumulation phase.

Profits shouldn't be the main thinking when accumulating but reaching your bitcoin target should be your priority.

No, I think that it's more better to accumulate Bitcoin with a duration of time than setting a Bitcoin target, because if you set up a Bitcoin target, you are limiting yourself, you might stop accumulating if you get to that target very  early, but if you set a duration of time like 10 years or more, you are definitely going to accumulate more Bitcoin as long as you are consistent in your Bitcoin accumulation journey, because I know that their are times you might even invest aggressively or sometime buy during a dip, so accumulating according to timeframe is the best way to accumulate a bigger stash of bitcoin than setting a target that can be easily achieved.

In fact, the way to invest in Bitcoin is entirely up to the individual who invests in Bitcoin. How long a person will invest or after collecting how much Bitcoin he will stop investing and lead a life through sustainable withdrawal depends on the age of the investor, his income and his plan. However, the target should be to earn that amount of Bitcoin, by winning, a strong security is created for the future life. Now let's say if someone is 50 to 60 years old, then it will not be good for him to invest in Bitcoin for more than 15 to 20 years. So he should invest a little more aggressively in 4 to 10 years because he needs to invest quickly and get financial prosperity quickly if he reaches the stage of over accumulation. But if one who  is 25 to 35 years old, he can continue to invest for a long time. Even if he can do DCA at low amount, then there will be no problem because he has enough time . However, what is most needed here is to have enough money. There must be discretionary income. The more discretionary income there is, the sooner it is possible to reach the over accumulation stage. So it is clear that the same strategy does not work for everyone because some people have time but the amount of money is less, so the target depends on the situation. However, the intention should be to go to the over accumulation stage. And after someone reaches this stage, if they want, they can spend their life in sustainable withdrawal without working anymore or if they want to pass the time, they can just do something for a couple of days a week or a few hours a day, it is up to them.

[Tonimez]

It's better that we don't use timeline as the main focus on our bitcoin accumulation journey because it will depreive us from accumulating as many bitcoin as possible overtime. Instead, you should have a bitcoin target which you will plan to accumulate so that you can focus on that quantity till you achieve it irrespective of the time duration that you will use to accumulate it. S that, you can know when you are entering an over accumulation phase.

Profits shouldn't be the main thinking when accumulating but reaching your bitcoin target should be your priority.

No, I think that it's more better to accumulate Bitcoin with a duration of time than setting a Bitcoin target, because if you set up a Bitcoin target, you are limiting yourself, you might stop accumulating if you get to that target very  early, but if you set a duration of time like 10 years or more, you are definitely going to accumulate more Bitcoin as long as you are consistent in your Bitcoin accumulation journey, because I know that their are times you might even invest aggressively or sometime buy during a dip, so accumulating according to timeframe is the best way to accumulate a bigger stash of bitcoin than setting a target that can be easily achieved.

In fact, the way to invest in Bitcoin is entirely up to the individual who invests in Bitcoin. How long a person will invest or after collecting how much Bitcoin he will stop investing and lead a life through sustainable withdrawal depends on the age of the investor, his income and his plan. However, the target should be to earn that amount of Bitcoin, by winning, a strong security is created for the future life. Now let's say if someone is 50 to 60 years old, then it will not be good for him to invest in Bitcoin for more than 15 to 20 years. So he should invest a little more aggressively in 4 to 10 years because he needs to invest quickly and get financial prosperity quickly if he reaches the stage of over accumulation. But if one who  is 25 to 35 years old, he can continue to invest for a long time. Even if he can do DCA at low amount, then there will be no problem because he has enough time . However, what is most needed here is to have enough money. There must be discretionary income. The more discretionary income there is, the sooner it is possible to reach the over accumulation stage. So it is clear that the same strategy does not work for everyone because some people have time but the amount of money is less, so the target depends on the situation. However, the intention should be to go to the over accumulation stage. And after someone reaches this stage, if they want, they can spend their life in sustainable withdrawal without working anymore or if they want to pass the time, they can just do something for a couple of days a week or a few hours a day, it is up to them.

It is true that age of a bitcoin investor matters in his accumulation journey. Some people were lucky enough to hear about bitcoin in their younger age and some do not have the privilege for different reasons. If only someone is intentional about increasing his bitcoin stash regularly, then he would set a positive attitude to that effect. However, starting at older age should not guarantee you to invest beyond your financial capacity at any time or overdo it. Mind your basic income and responsibilities and strike a balance with them. Choosing your DCA allocation or approach should not be based entirely on how much bitcoin you want to accumulate within a space of time, it should also allow you to understand that your basic responsibilities are paramount for the success of your long term holding. A person who continuously aggressively accumulate bitcoin for the sake of achieving over accumulation within a limited time may end up selling off all or part of the bitcoin earlier than he would wish to sell. This is why it is good not to overdo it in order to attend to your family life. You may be old and still not accumulate more aggressively because of your limited resources while a younger person can be able to accumulate more aggressively due to improved source of income and possible lower responsibility.

This however entails that it may be misleading to say that an older investor has to be more aggressive than the younger investors. Infact, a younger investor has higher chances of being more aggressive than an older investor due to minimal responsibilities which therefore allows him to still achieve over accumulation before the older folk. So it would be much better if everyone invests within his strength not focusing completely on age and accumulation target which could jeopardize his already accumulated bitcoin.

[blackberrman]

Sometimes the market may seems to appear against our direction, but it's nothing than a temporary market behavior which we are not supposed to count as what could make us fear and sell, because some will be made to react towards market behaviors like this and if we don't planned and get prepared hahead of these, we may think that we must sell in other to avoid going bearish together with the market the more, when we should be holding the more, these are part of the mistakes our newbies engaged, because they are yet to fully understand what everything is about in bitcoin investment, as in knowing the best buying or selling point before taking any action.

I agree with you, it is better for new investors not to be left behind in investing, if they can find a job or business from which they can earn and with that money they can meet the basic needs of the family and build an emergency fund so that if they face a sudden danger, they can overcome their danger with their funds, thus investing a part of their income using the DCA strategy monthly or weekly and if they do this investment for 7-8 years they will be able to transform their small investment into a strong one, it is very important to have a long-term view when investing in Bitcoin,

[HajiBagi]

First of all as an investor you ought to be focused and concentrate on your thing instead of looking at what others are doing but if you must look at what others are doing or saying even if they are not..., don't be drive by those things rather learn to be contented with what you have ( your capacity), if there is something great or interesting they are doing and you feel it can help you if you apply it your investment and you have what is required to carry out this then you can go ahead there is nothing wrong in doing this but don't allow other people's success or things to control you, be confident in yourself and know you must not be like others.

One thing we should know as an investor is that we should not force ourselves to become like others, we should always put in mind that we can never be the same, some individuals are confused when it comes to investing as they always look up to people who have already invested for a long term and have gathered enough a huge amount of Bitcoin, that makes them thinks that they can’t afford Bitcoin or meet up with those people who have already bought it from the beginning when the market is down.

We should never let the price or anything to distract us achieve our goals, if we did not try, we will never learn from our mistakes, although it is good to be wishing to become successful, have a big dream and also learn from them but we have to make it happen in our way instead of trying force ourselves to follow another person step, your skill, patience and knowledge will be the key to success of our journey.

[Miramax12]

This your analysis or point really shows how crazy the difference can be over time. Selling 28.5 BTC for a car back in 2016 might have felt smart at the time, but now, That same stack could have changed his whole life. It’s wild to think about. He traded something that could’ve made him a millionaire for a car that’s probably not even running anymore.

And to be also be honest with you, I  also did the same thing,  In my first year I sold a chunk of my Bitcoin, both the gains and some of my stash, and spent it on things that honestly didn’t even make much sense. At the time it felt good and it felt like the earth was just spinning around me alone, but looking back I wish I had known better. Once I really understood what long term holding means I was able to chill and stop making those quick decisions. It’s all about learning and growing right thou ......The hardest part is staying patient when the price goes up. People see green and want to take profits, but if you treat Bitcoin like long term savings it changes how you think.

Yep.  I am not really sure how any of us can make sure that we have the right mindset because it can become quite tempting to sell and to take some profits, and the guy may have had sold the 28.5 bitcoin with around 2x profits.. so he was selling out of profits since maybe he bought the coins at $350 or less... then at the same time, he just took for granted the significance of his having had accumulated that many coins...

And currently we have guys who may have had bought a lot of coins in the $17k to $35k prices through 2022 and 2023, so they might not even realize how valuable it is merely to have had accumulated so many bitcoin at those prices, and so some of them were selling their bitcoin at around $100k, so they ended up getting 3x and 4x profits, but then they are never going to be able to accumulate the quantity of bitcoin that they were able to accumulate in 2022 and 2023 for the amount of dollars that they put into their investment.

We have seen that so many times in bitcoin, and guys are not able to come even close to buying back the quantity of coins that they ended up selling, and they don't realize how difficult it will be to get that quantity of coins in the future.

It is hard to see while we are in the midst of the price, and even our current prices could well end up being really good when it comes to a few years down the road, and even 5-10 years down the road, and right now  we can accumulate as much bitcoin that we want at the current $117k-ish prices.

I've read comments like this consecutively. It seems the market dips and fluctuations isn't the only problem after all. After a beautiful long term holding plan some may feel fulfilled and go ahead to selling off their entire bitcoin stash with one order probably because they got a 2x or more. Which is why staying around those with the right mindset can also influence your decision to suit you the best way it can. If only they had stumbled upon your [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy may they would have understood how to make withdrawal following the 200WMA  and the calculations for the amount to be withdrawn each month using a fair conservative rate. With a 6% conservative rate it would take 16 years for one to fully withdraw all the bitcoin in his stash. However this gives us a leveraged ability to also make extra profits if bitcoin continues soaring for this 4 cycle without regretting our decision of selling off some bitcoin unlike those who happen to sell everything or more than half the size of their bitcoin portfolio.

There is something wrong with your description that withdrawing bitcoin at a 6% per year rate would completely deplete the bitcoin in 16 years.

My underlying presumption is that any time that we are attempting to withdraw bitcoin in a sustainable way, then the withdrawal rate is sustainable in perpetuity, meaning that you can continue to withdraw at that same rate forever and ever and ever.

Sure, the size of your bitcoin stash will continue to go down, once you start to withdraw from it, yet its dollar value should be going up at a faster and larger rate than your withdrawals from it.

For example, I assert that right now, a person who wants to have an income of $80k per year perpetually into the future and even with a 7% increase in the fiat withdrawal rate, can have 15.547 BTC and start immediately to withdraw at $6,667 per month.  Of course, if a guy is worried about having enough of a value cushion and or making any mistakes, then he could have a little extra BTC, so maybe to get started the guy has an extra 0.6817794 BTC ($80,000/$117,340), so that he withdraws the first year in advance and still has 15.547 BTC, so then when next year comes, he will see that he still has enough to withdraw an additional $85.6k (which is $80k X 1.07 to account for a 7% increase in the cost of living or a 7% decrease in the value of the dollar).

I am using the 200-WMA to calculate the value of the bitcoin and then withdrawing based 10%  of the 200-WMA dollar value. Part of the purpose is to allow for more conservative withdrawals, including that the 200-WMA largely attempts to account for BTC bottom prices.

If you were to be withdrawing 6% per year based on the 200-WMA, the dollar value of your BTC is likely to continue to greatly outgrow your withdrawal rate, so you would not be running out of BTC, unless for some reason the 200-WMA stops going up at greater than 6% per year rates.. including that the lowest rate, so far in all of bitcoin's history has been a 200-WMA appreciation rate of about 20% per year for the period between about June 2022 and November 2023.  You can see the actual historical numbers in my latest fuck you status chart, and you can also see the projected future 200-WMA values that may or may not end up being correct, but we can adjust our plans (such as reduce our withdrawal rate) if the 200-WMA ends up performing way lower than the projected amounts. 

Ultimately each of us is responsible for our own value calculations to figure out how much BTC we need and what rate of withdrawal we can achieve if we are trying to make our withdrawal rate sustainable.. which means forever rather than a paltry 16 years.. You must have had gotten that 16 years from someplace else since I am not promoting any ideas to deplete our bitcoin principle, at least not within sustainable withdrawal systems, even if there might be other non-sustainable justifications to deplete our bitcoin based on age and/or health considerations or some other emergency situation that we might believes justifies depleting our bitcoin holdings.

[edited out]

Determining the price of Bitcoin is a challenge, but as Bitcoin's popularity is increasing day by day, its demand has also increased many times over the past, and it continues to do so today. Bitcoin may increase its value in the future beyond our expectations, but we cannot guarantee it or deny it because it is likely to go up, because Bitcoin's limited supply. When Bitcoin's journey began in the past, many people may not have known about it, but at present, people in almost all regions are familiar with Bitcoin. The future of Bitcoin is bright,

In recent times more people have heard about bitcoin, yet hardly anyone has any clue about bitcoin, otherwise more people would own it.

there is no point where we will talk about losses because you only loose when you sell below the point you bought you bitcoin and that can only happen when you are short term investor that is not patient enough to invest for the long term. even though it is true that one should invest based on his financial capacity, pushing yourself above the minor limit also stands help you reach your accumilation point fast enough.

You make reasonable points Hewlet, and it seems that somehow we have to get into a mindset that we are not getting too worked up about short term profits and/or losses, and surely many guys are likely going to be accumulating bitcoin for 4-10 years or more before they might even transition to a maintenance stage and then later transition to a stage where it might start to make sense in selling any bitcoin.

But, yeah, some guys get caught up upon shorter term profits and then they maybe just get such an urge to spend their bitcoin on something rather than getting to some kind of a sustainable withdrawal stage that largely signifies withdrawing slowly and over time rather than in big chunks.

Getting through the first whole cycle while continuing to buy bitcoin and not selling any bitcoin is likely a difficult task for many, and surely there could be some guys who might be able to front load their bitcoin investment, so they might feel that they don't need to accumulate for a whole cycle or more than a whole cycle, yet those folks with sufficient abilities to front load their bitcoin investment are not as common as the ones who likely need to accumulate bitcoin for 1 or 2 cycles before they strt to get to a point of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

Yep.  I am not really sure how any of us can make sure that we have the right mindset because it can become quite tempting to sell and to take some profits, and the guy may have had sold the 28.5 bitcoin with around 2x profits.. so he was selling out of profits since maybe he bought the coins at $350 or less... then at the same time, he just took for granted the significance of his having had accumulated that many coins...

And currently we have guys who may have had bought a lot of coins in the $17k to $35k prices through 2022 and 2023, so they might not even realize how valuable it is merely to have had accumulated so many bitcoin at those prices, and so some of them were selling their bitcoin at around $100k, so they ended up getting 3x and 4x profits, but then they are never going to be able to accumulate the quantity of bitcoin that they were able to accumulate in 2022 and 2023 for the amount of dollars that they put into their investment.

We have seen that so many times in bitcoin, and guys are not able to come even close to buying back the quantity of coins that they ended up selling, and they don't realize how difficult it will be to get that quantity of coins in the future.

It is hard to see while we are in the midst of the price, and even our current prices could well end up being really good when it comes to a few years down the road, and even 5-10 years down the road, and right now  we can accumulate as much bitcoin that we want at the current $117k-ish prices.

To jump into this discussion this is the exact reason why I think we need to actually time our taking of profit so well, I have recently been in argument multiple times that one shouldn’t be taking profit simply because they want to buy back because there is a tendency that bitcoin might not even re visit that price again. For example even if it is not realistic now bitcoin might get Above $200k this year and probably not visit this $117k again even if the dip comes that means people who sold just to buy Back might be getting lesser quantity with the price.

As for taking of profit, I think everyone will definitely have a sign of little regrets after taking profit because bitcoin will definitely continue to move up so the decision to take profit should be for something worth while not unnecessary spending

Even if you are largely correct in regards to your description of our current situation, there is something that is off about your assessment for the reasons why we are not selling bitcoin.

I think that the main reason that we are not selling bitcoin is because we are buying it, so if we are buying it, we will be buying all the way up to $200k and beyond if it goes to those prices this cycle, and then perhaps if there is a correction, we are continuing to buy it until we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

We cannot have any assurance of our being able to buy more bitcoin based on our selling it and expecting to buy back cheaper, whether we are selling now or at some later point down the road such as $200k and above.

Even you, EL MOHA (if we go by your forum registration date) seem to have ONLY a year and a half in bitcoin.  I cannot imagine very many circumstances that a guy with only a year and a half in bitcoin would have gotten out of accumulation status... but sure, the more bitcoin you already accumulated could justify, perhaps, your stopping or slowing down of your accumulation of bitcoin.  I suppose only you are in a position to really know and yeah if you screw up because you stop accumulating, then sure that is not as bad as selling too much too soon, but it could still be a problem in the event that you have not yet reached ovreraccumulation status.  ONLY you are the one to figure out whether you are at overaccumulation status, and if you screw up your assessment, then that is on you.

I recall a person who had gotten into bitcoin around late 2014, and only bought a few thousand dollars in bitcoin even though the person had something close to $50k in his bank account... and he was largely skeptical of bitcoin...

The person might have gotten around 10 bitcoin with the first purchase for $4k (so maybe $400 per BTC), and then the person  bought some more bitcoin in the next year or two between 2015 and 2016, and maybe got up to around 19 BTC... with maybe a total invested of less than $8k.  The person had cashed out in bitcoin several times in 2017 and even in 2021, and perhaps the person cashed out around $150k worth of bitcoin in the various times cashing out, and perhaps sold a total of around 8 or 9 BTC.  The rest of his bitcoin (maybe 8 BTC?) got hacked based on mistakes he made, and he lost the others (around 4 BTC) in some of the 2022 exchange fiascos because he was trying to earn yield (but he got back 0.8 BTC from the one that he lost 4 BTC), so maybe now he has less than 1 whole BTC. 

it can be crazy what people do in terms of their whimpiness of buying bitcoin and their selling too much BTC too soon and then also their sloppy management of their bitcoin holdings. In some ways, I feel bad for the guy, yet in other ways his own sloppiness and reluctancies in learning how to self-custody and to not get greedy with coins were parts of the problem, even though overall he still made $150k (maybe $140k after subtracting costs) from his coins, and he still has around 0.8 BTC. Way less than he could have had, and surely he is not really in a position to earn money to replace those coins.

[edited out]

Yeah , that is  the tricky part with Bitcoin. People always think they are being smart locking in profits, but history keeps showing that most end up selling too soon. It is just human nature to want quick gains, but the tough part is realizing how much harder it will be to rebuild that same stack later when prices have already moved up.

The way I see it, if you were lucky enough to stack a good amount during 2022 and 2023 when prices were still in that 17k to 35k zone, that is a huge win already. Selling a chunk now for a 3x might feel good, but down the line those same coins could be worth life changing amounts. Even at 117k today, it might look high, but in 5 to 10 years this could be the price we wish we loaded up on. That is why holding and thinking long term usually beats trying to time the market.....

There should be a good feeling in our having had been able to accumulate some cheaper coins and to still have them in our bitcoin stack, yet over the years, we are likely going to have coins that have costs that are all over the place, and sure, if we get some chances to buy some coins cheaper, then we should do it, yet ongoingly we can never really know bitcoin's price direction, yet we can know that if we still don't have enough bitcoin, then from time to time (perhaps even every week?) we should be ongoingly, persistently, regularly, consistently and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin. 

Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time, yet any of us can imagine that there were newbies to bitcoin in 2022 who might have had been waiting for price dips, and largely since 2022, the BTC price has gone up and up and up and up, and there hardly would have had been any justification in waiting rather than regularly buying bitcoin, even if the BTC price continues to go up. 

Part of the issue regarding a guy who is regularly receiving an income is that he does not have the money until the money comes in, so even if a guy might have had been buying bitcoin as aggressively as he could have done in 2022 and 2023, he still cannot use the income that he received in 2024 and 2025 to retroactively buy bitcoin at 2022 and 2023 prices.  He has to buy bitcoin as his money comes in, and sure many times, he wishes that he could earn more money, yet frequently there is ONLY so much a guy can do to either increase his income or to decrease his expenses, so he has to work with what he has as it comes in.

It is very crazy how clear everything looks in hindsight , but in the moment , we are trying to make the most of what you have . i think a lot of us have been there  spending early gains thinking we are making the right move , only to look back , it is a learning curve. Once you start seeing Bitcoin as a long term wealth and not just fast money.
Yeah, you’re right  time in the space matters, and I have still got a lot to learn. A year and a half is not much in Bitcoin terms, but i have been trying to soak up as much as I can and approach things with a long-term mindset. I hear you on over accumulation too  it’s a tricky line to walk between stacking hard and knowing when you have done enough.
That story you shared is a heavy reminder that it’s not just about buying early it’s about how you manage what you have got. Hacks, yield chasing, bad decisions it really puts risk management into perspective. Definitely gives me more to think about.

[Silikiem]

these are part of the mistakes our newbies engaged, because they are yet to fully understand what everything is about in bitcoin investment, as in knowing the best buying or selling point before taking any action.

Your statement here looks very contradictory and somewhat misleading most especially as it is directed towards the newbies who are desirous to venture into bitcoin investment, the reason I said so is because from your statement, it will seem as  though there’s a specific time or point designated for a newbie or an investor to buy, accumulate and invest in Bitcoin and hodl for the long term goal . As far as I’m concerned, In bitcoin investment the the only time to buy and invest is when an individual is able to figure out a discretionary income to accumulate and invest with and that should be just the best time to buy and invest in bitcoin and not to wait for a particular bearish or bullish period. For an investor whose initial strategy is focused on the long term goal of accumulating and hodl, using a discretionary income to accumulate through the DCA method of accumulation, there’s no reason or whatsoever to wait for any point in the market before accumulating bitcoin, rather the best time is when the individual is able to get or figure out a discretionary income to accumulate with and hodl to gradually build up his portfolio. And again, In bitcoin investment you don’t have to wait to understand what everything is all about before you can invest, as a matter of fact you can never understand everything or know it all, the most important thing is to be able figure out a discretionary income and focus on your accumulation gradually and build up your portfolio to a certain level that fit your investment goal or target.

[Cossyblack]

Sometimes the market may seems to appear against our direction, but it's nothing than a temporary market behavior which we are not supposed to count as what could make us fear and sell, because some will be made to react towards market behaviors like this and if we don't planned and get prepared hahead of these, we may think that we must sell in other to avoid going bearish together with the market the more, when we should be holding the more,

If truly you're an investor that's buying bitcoin for the long term,then you don't have to worry about the violatility of the market since you're already on a long term accumulation plan. All what you should be focusing on is to be consistent in buying/accumulating bitcoin weekly or monthly from your inflow of Discretional income until you have achieved your accumulation target.

these are part of the mistakes our newbies engaged, because they are yet to fully understand what everything is about in bitcoin investment, as in knowing the best buying or selling point before taking any action.

Nobody has full knowledge and understanding of everything about bitcoin, so if you are waiting to acquire complete knowledge about bitcoin before investing then you may never invest at all. All you have to do is to learn the basics about bitcoin and get started.

Secondly, you don't have to be timing the market waiting for the best time to buy Bitcoin. I believe the best time to buy Bitcoin is when your discretional fund is available, and also you can be consistent and persistently in buying bitcoin if you have a regular flow of discretional income that comes weekly or monthly.

Timing the market as an investor is wrong because it is a total waste of time and energy, what's the points of monitoring the market when you don't have any control over it.

[Futurexxx]

If truly you're an investor that's buying bitcoin for the long term,then you don't have to worry about the violatility of the market since you're already on a long term accumulation plan. All what you should be focusing on is to be consistent in buying/accumulating bitcoin weekly or monthly from your inflow of Discretional income until you have achieved your accumulation target.

these are part of the mistakes our newbies engaged, because they are yet to fully understand what everything is about in bitcoin investment, as in knowing the best buying or selling point before taking any action.

Nobody has full knowledge and understanding of everything about bitcoin, so if you are waiting to acquire complete knowledge about bitcoin before investing then you may never invest at all. All you have to do is to learn the basics about bitcoin and get started.

Secondly, you don't have to be timing the market waiting for the best time to buy Bitcoin. I believe the best time to buy Bitcoin is when your discretional fund is available, and also you can be consistent and persistently in buying bitcoin if you have a regular flow of discretional income that comes weekly or monthly.

Timing the market as an investor is wrong because it is a total waste of time and energy, what's the points of monitoring the market when you don't have any control over it.

Yes you are right, Timing the market is actually a terrible way to invest in Bitcoin because by doing so you are going to miss so many buying opportunities that would have been used to buy a huge chunk of Bitcoin, so it's not wise to wait before buying, because you might not even buy in the process of waiting since you might still be waiting thinking that the price of Bitcoin might go deeper.
Additionally, having the basic knowledge is one thing and acting in it is another thing, so starting once you have the basic needs is the ideal thing to do once your discretionary income is available, because now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin not tomorrow or next tomorrow.

[EL MOHA]

Even if you are largely correct in regards to your description of our current situation, there is something that is off about your assessment for the reasons why we are not selling bitcoin.

I think that the main reason that we are not selling bitcoin is because we are buying it, so if we are buying it, we will be buying all the way up to $200k and beyond if it goes to those prices this cycle, and then perhaps if there is a correction, we are continuing to buy it until we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

We cannot have any assurance of our being able to buy more bitcoin based on our selling it and expecting to buy back cheaper, whether we are selling now or at some later point down the road such as $200k and above.

Even you, EL MOHA (if we go by your forum registration date) seem to have ONLY a year and a half in bitcoin.  I cannot imagine very many circumstances that a guy with only a year and a half in bitcoin would have gotten out of accumulation status... but sure, the more bitcoin you already accumulated could justify, perhaps, your stopping or slowing down of your accumulation of bitcoin.  I suppose only you are in a position to really know and yeah if you screw up because you stop accumulating, then sure that is not as bad as selling too much too soon, but it could still be a problem in the event that you have not yet reached ovreraccumulation status.  ONLY you are the one to figure out whether you are at overaccumulation status, and if you screw up your assessment, then that is on you.

I recall a person who had gotten into bitcoin around late 2014, and only bought a few thousand dollars in bitcoin even though the person had something close to $50k in his bank account... and he was largely skeptical of bitcoin...

The person might have gotten around 10 bitcoin with the first purchase for $4k (so maybe $400 per BTC), and then the person  bought some more bitcoin in the next year or two between 2015 and 2016, and maybe got up to around 19 BTC... with maybe a total invested of less than $8k.  The person had cashed out in bitcoin several times in 2017 and even in 2021, and perhaps the person cashed out around $150k worth of bitcoin in the various times cashing out, and perhaps sold a total of around 8 or 9 BTC.  The rest of his bitcoin (maybe 8 BTC?) got hacked based on mistakes he made, and he lost the others (around 4 BTC) in some of the 2022 exchange fiascos because he was trying to earn yield (but he got back 0.8 BTC from the one that he lost 4 BTC), so maybe now he has less than 1 whole BTC. 

it can be crazy what people do in terms of their whimpiness of buying bitcoin and their selling too much BTC too soon and then also their sloppy management of their bitcoin holdings. In some ways, I feel bad for the guy, yet in other ways his own sloppiness and reluctancies in learning how to self-custody and to not get greedy with coins were parts of the problem, even though overall he still made $150k (maybe $140k after subtracting costs) from his coins, and he still has around 0.8 BTC. Way less than he could have had, and surely he is not really in a position to earn money to replace those coins.

I didn’t actually check the date but I am 2 years and almost 6 months old in registration. For the question about me reaching my accumulation end point, in fact I am in my aggressive accumulation zone, after just coming out of sorting some person problems, thanks to your older advices of securing an emergency funds of close to six months to begin aggressively buying. With bitcoin over $100k it will take me some years again to even get my anticipated amount that I will get out of aggressively buying, I am from a country where the fiat currency actually isn’t valuable and the most easiest asset to own by me that could yield profit is bitcoin, Infact i am accumulating for retirement, if I could get to my target I think I will be very well set for retirement.

Just like you gave the example it’s usually not my thing to sell and buy back because I see the risk surrounding it flipping the reward that might come with it. For example I am have deal with exchanges just look at the risk of the story you explain now. I usually get bitcoin off exchanges and even recieves some there but never leaves bitcoin there for long. Sad for the story shared but many need to learn that the wallet security is equivalent to how they accumulate too both should be top priority

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Yes you are right, Timing the market is actually a terrible way to invest in Bitcoin because by doing so you are going to miss so many buying opportunities that would have been used to buy a huge chunk of Bitcoin, so it's not wise to wait before buying, because you might not even buy in the process of waiting since you might still be waiting thinking that the price of Bitcoin might go deeper.

Actual investors know that with investment, there are two main things to know, and obey.

Invest in long term which means accumulation for long term investment is a long process so it leads to a second point.
Don't time the market as with long term investment, it is no longer necessary.

Additionally, having the basic knowledge is one thing and acting in it is another thing, so starting once you have the basic needs is the ideal thing to do once your discretionary income is available, because now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin not tomorrow or next tomorrow.

Basic knowledge will help investors knowing that a good strategy is Dollar Cost Averaging for their investment accumulation over a long time. They know that with long term investment, this DCA strategy will help them accumulating bitcoin very effortlessly - without need of timing the market, finding any market bottom, time of bear market ending, time of bull market start and ending.

They can also apply DCA for their withdrawals/ profit taking too.
https://costavg.com/
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

[As-Soon-As]

so it's not wise to wait before buying, because you might not even buy in the process of waiting since you might still be waiting thinking that the price of Bitcoin might go deeper.
Additionally, having the basic knowledge is one thing and acting in it is another thing, so starting once you have the basic needs is the ideal thing to do once your discretionary income is available, because now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin not tomorrow or next tomorrow.

The longer you delay, the more time you will have in the future, so the sooner you can invest in Bitcoin using the DCA method, the sooner you are ready to get more benefits. Because in the case of Bitcoin investment, whenever you research the market, the thought of buying may immediately go away from your mind, because we can see that the Bitcoin market is almost running upwards.
So we should only participate in investing in Bitcoin immediately after saving money, because the more you delay in purchasing, the more likely you will be in danger because with that money you can save your danger. So never think about delaying in buying Bitcoin, participate in Bitcoin investment quickly and move further towards the future

[Sjkah]

I don't know if I will actually be successful one day if I invest in Bitcoin. I continued to invest in Bitcoin for many years but did not get any good results then everything was in vain. If we can invest correctly then we can make a profit then we should invest in Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin.

[G_Besar]

I don't know if I will actually be successful one day if I invest in Bitcoin. I continued to invest in Bitcoin for many years but did not get any good results then everything was in vain. If we can invest correctly then we can make a profit then we should invest in Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin.

You joined this forum at the beginning of the year, so the question is, when did you start investing in Bitcoin? If you've just recently invested in Bitcoin, you certainly won't see significant returns if you only buy Bitcoin periodically in small amounts. However, if you've been buying large amounts since the beginning of this year, you've certainly seen substantial returns in your portfolio, even if you haven't held it for long. However, if you've been investing in Bitcoin for years, I don't think anything has been in vain, as you've certainly seen much greater returns this year, as Bitcoin has achieved several all-time highs this year.

Now, when you say that, I have another question: how long have you been investing in Bitcoin? If you say it's been years, then your journey isn't just one year, but more than two or three years. So, you need to explain this so you don't hesitate to continue investing in Bitcoin. Many Bitcoin investors have been successful by continually buying and holding onto it, without thinking about selling at a certain price, even though Bitcoin has repeatedly set new all-time highs in the market.

[Sjkah]

Even though the investor has time, if his goal is achieved, then he has more time left. He can use that time for work. You have to wait for the long term. After buying Bitcoin, it is better not to sell it if the price increases a little. It is better not to sell Bitcoin thinking about your own profit. We should think about how to hold Bitcoin in the long term. How to invest and take Bitcoin forward. We should not sell it immediately, thinking that the price will fluctuate in the market.