🏈 - Spotsbet.io NFL Pick-Em Prediction Pool - Discussion Thread - 🏈

[Jinetics1111]

Week 13 with a 7-9 record is far from satisfactory. To be at the top you need at least a 9-10 average or better and some terrible rounds on my part have taken me out of contention. It's getting tough to finish in the top 5 with 5 weeks to go.

Yeah it's getting close to the end, gonna be really tough to keep up, especially when teams who clinch and have nothing to play for already making the playoffs.
NFL was kinda tough for me this season I let doubt and 2nd guessing rob me of good picks 
But that is the nature of the beast perhaps, trying to be perfect when it's really not needed.

[Renato297]

Week 13 with a 7-9 record is far from satisfactory. To be at the top you need at least a 9-10 average or better and some terrible rounds on my part have taken me out of contention. It's getting tough to finish in the top 5 with 5 weeks to go.

Yeah it's getting close to the end, gonna be really tough to keep up, especially when teams who clinch and have nothing to play for already making the playoffs.
NFL was kinda tough for me this season I let doubt and 2nd guessing rob me of good picks 
But that is the nature of the beast perhaps, trying to be perfect when it's really not needed.

The guys at the top are playing at a very high level, we need them to stumble a bit to close the gap.
Some teams are already out of playoff contention, but we can't get too comfortable against them, last week we saw a lot of underdogs so picking the Week 14  will be tough.
As usual, I'm making all the picks today, so we'll see what happens.

[nutildah]

Today's game is a good example of how a change in the line could represent an educated picking opportunity.

In a few hours we have the Cowboys at the Lions, where Lions are -3.5 favorites. The line opened at -6 but slowly drifted down to -3.5 where it is now, as more money has come in on the Cowboys over the last few days.

Meanwhile Sleeper has the line at -5.5 Lions, which doesn't reflect current odds and the new money on the Cowboys. So in theory taking Dallas at +5.5 would be an educated pick because it is capitalizing on the margin of difference between the old odds and the new odds. This of course works better the bigger the difference is. But even just a 2-point difference might be enough to change the outcome of a bet from a loss to a win.

*this is not financial advice

[Jinetics1111]

Today's game is a good example of how a change in the line could represent an educated picking opportunity.

In a few hours we have the Cowboys at the Lions, where Lions are -3.5 favorites. The line opened at -6 but slowly drifted down to -3.5 where it is now, as more money has come in on the Cowboys over the last few days.

Meanwhile Sleeper has the line at -5.5 Lions, which doesn't reflect current odds and the new money on the Cowboys. So in theory taking Dallas at +5.5 would be an educated pick because it is capitalizing on the margin of difference between the old odds and the new odds. This of course works better the bigger the difference is. But even just a 2-point difference might be enough to change the outcome of a bet from a loss to a win.

*this is not financial advice

Damn I had went for Dallas here but the fuel they had the past weeks couldn't keep up with the Lions who are still in the hunt for playoffs and what not.
I guess that motivated them even more, not to mention Gibbs 3 td tonight didn't make it any better.
So I started off this week on the wrong foot but its all good, I drifted away from any prize money by my poor results anyway.

[nutildah]

Contrary to what I was expecting, the Lions were the better team all night. The Cowboys were covering the spread for about 3 minutes in the 4th quarter when they almost caught back up and were down by 3 points, but then the Lions ran away with it again shortly thereafter. Teaches me to root for the Cowboys. That's what I get for doing something I never do. Just goes to show that anything can happen on Any Given Sunday.

[Jinetics1111]

Contrary to what I was expecting, the Lions were the better team all night. The Cowboys were covering the spread for about 3 minutes in the 4th quarter when they almost caught back up and were down by 3 points, but then the Lions ran away with it again shortly thereafter. Teaches me to root for the Cowboys. That's what I get for doing something I never do. Just goes to show that anything can happen on Any Given Sunday.

Yup anything can happen indeed can't compare weeks ever, you really never know how a team will come out firing at times. Any given Sunday any team can show up and really stir the pot or shake things up when you least expect it especially this time of year when teams play spoiler or what not. I also thought Cowboys was the right pick but it's all good shit happens let's see what happens come Sunday. 

[Renato297]

Well, this week 14 I have an 8-5 record  which I think is pretty good. I hope I can get another correct pick in today's game. It seems impossible to catch the top 3, so I'd only be able to fight for a top 4-5 finish. There are only a few weeks left and there's no room for error.

[Jinetics1111]

Well, this week 14 I have an 8-5 record  which I think is pretty good. I hope I can get another correct pick in today's game. It seems impossible to catch the top 3, so I'd only be able to fight for a top 4-5 finish. There are only a few weeks left and there's no room for error.

I had an even terrible week bro, at this point I'm just playing for fun now, my NFL assessment's have been not good this season at all.
But it is what it is maybe next season will be better for me, good luck to you for the rest of the season bro.

[Renato297]

Well, this week 14 I have an 8-5 record  which I think is pretty good. I hope I can get another correct pick in today's game. It seems impossible to catch the top 3, so I'd only be able to fight for a top 4-5 finish. There are only a few weeks left and there's no room for error.

I had an even terrible week bro, at this point I'm just playing for fun now, my NFL assessment's have been not good this season at all.
But it is what it is maybe next season will be better for me, good luck to you for the rest of the season bro.

I still think you have a chance to fight for the top spot, but it depends on the guys at the top having bad weeks with their picks. They've been very good so far. I hope the guys at the top stumble in week 15 so I can try to close the gap, as long as I make most of the right picks. Good luck to you too.

[Jinetics1111]

I still think you have a chance to fight for the top spot, but it depends on the guys at the top having bad weeks with their picks. They've been very good so far. I hope the guys at the top stumble in week 15 so I can try to close the gap, as long as I make most of the right picks. Good luck to you too.

Ha I like your optimism, but this ending part of the year hasn’t been all that great to me and it’s reflecting in almost every aspect of BSFL and pools for example I was 8th in F1 pool then I slipped badly and finished outside of the top 10. NFL has just been weird to me overall, and BSFL just a run of bad luck, I’m wondering when things will switch up but it is what it is.


[nutildah]

Regarding today's game, its one where I just have to go with the mismatch between the Sleeper odds (Atlanta @ +6.5) and the latest odds (Atlanta @ +5.5). Bookies are currently giving a whole extra point or point and a half to the Falcons, so I just have to go with them. Also, the Buccaneers lost at home to one of the worst teams in the league last week.

There's a good chance the Bucs will still win but maybe not by more than 6 points.

[Jinetics1111]

Regarding today's game, its one where I just have to go with the mismatch between the Sleeper odds (Atlanta @ +6.5) and the latest odds (Atlanta @ +5.5). Bookies are currently giving a whole extra point or point and a half to the Falcons, so I just have to go with them. Also, the Buccaneers lost at home to one of the worst teams in the league last week.

There's a good chance the Bucs will still win but maybe not by more than 6 points.

I also went with Falcons too, my thinking was to pick them not just based on odds but also to play spoiler since Bucs still had or have a chance to qualify for playoffs.
But in the end not only were we right but falcons also won the game outright, gotta love NFL at times.

[nutildah]

Tomorrow we get

 - Houston for -9.5, which is a bargain b/c the odds are currently -10.5
 - Jacksonville for -11.5, an incredible bargain compared to -13.5, even though 11.5 already seems high
 - Kansas City for -4.5, a whole point less than the current -5.5

All 3 teams need a win for the playoffs more than their opponent, another good reason to go with them, IMHO. As a matter of fact, most (but not all) favorites need a win more than their opponents.

Commanders vs. Giants is a total tossup. Its the Shit Bowl, to decide who gets a higher draft pick next year.

[yahoo62278]

Tomorrow we get

 - Houston for -9.5, which is a bargain b/c the odds are currently -10.5
 - Jacksonville for -11.5, an incredible bargain compared to -13.5, even though 11.5 already seems high
 - Kansas City for -4.5, a whole point less than the current -5.5

All 3 teams need a win for the playoffs more than their opponent, another good reason to go with them, IMHO. As a matter of fact, most (but not all) favorites need a win more than their opponents.

Commanders vs. Giants is a total tossup. Its the Shit Bowl, to decide who gets a higher draft pick next year.

I think the Colts get stomped hard today. They are putting in Rivers who hasn't played for 5 years and he's gonna get creamed by a top 5 defense that Seattle has. Seahawks will most likely cover 13.5, Jets starting a new QB so they prob get creamed by Jax who will take the lead in the division, and the Rams vs Det should be a great game with the Rams covering 6.

[Slissy]

nutildah you are on fire 😁 You have an 8 point gap to second place and a 13 point gap to 3rd place. damn that is impressive 😁 And there are only 3 rounds left and I feel like we've just started the season even though I haven't been following along😂

[Hhampuz]

nutildah you are on fire 😁 You have an 8 point gap to second place and a 13 point gap to 3rd place. damn that is impressive 😁 And there are only 3 rounds left and I feel like we've just started the season even though I haven't been following along😂

Considering the results in all the games this season I'm not sure whether you are good or.. bad, nutildah  

[Jinetics1111]

nutildah you are on fire 😁 You have an 8 point gap to second place and a 13 point gap to 3rd place. damn that is impressive 😁 And there are only 3 rounds left and I feel like we've just started the season even though I haven't been following along😂

Yup he definitely knows his stuff for sure especially how wild this season is, they brought out a 44 year old man out of retirement to play a game and almost won yesterday
Now if that's not insane I don't know what to tell you, and the list goes on but congrats to him on a job looks like well done.

[Renato297]

This week has been terrible for me with a 5-10 record. I've dropped three places with one game left in Week 15, but I'm slowly falling out of contention for the top spots. I'm hoping to get a point today, I think every point is important now with  three weeks to go.

[nutildah]

Today's game feels like a layup for the Steelers. The only drawback is the line is actually -3 and not -3.5. But I have a feeling that the Steelers will easily cover because Tua sucks playing cold weather. We'll see.

[Jinetics1111]

Today's game feels like a layup for the Steelers. The only drawback is the line is actually -3 and not -3.5. But I have a feeling that the Steelers will easily cover because Tua sucks playing cold weather. We'll see.

Good call bro you truly are a guru in this arena, I certainly tip my cap to you sir week after week of solid picks.
Question are you betting any of these spreads that you pick week after week? Surely you are cause you definitely would be up some money and your account would be looking lovely.