To what level will Bitcoin fall after reaching $100K (or higher)?

[dunfida]

The forum has repeatedly discussed what maximum mark $100K will reach in this cycle. Many are waiting for the level of $100K, and some, especially enthusiastic BTC-users, are talking about higher cost indicators ($150K and higher).

But now I would like to focus on another point. What is the minimum price mark that bitcoin will reach in the current cryptomarket cycle, because the lower the price, the more bitcoin (parts of BTC) can be bought. How low do you think bitcoin will fall in price after reaching $100K (or higher)?

Let me remind you that in 2018, bitcoin reached a price of ~$16.5K and fell to ~$3.5K, in 2022 - ~$67.5K with a minimum level of ~$16K.

$100k isn't the peak price of this cycle but pretty sure that this would really be that a strong resistance which needs up to break because there would really be tons that will be selling out into this price.We won't know on what would be the peak price of this cycle on which I'm sure that it won't be just that 100k but rather 150k-200k but well everyone is really that expecting something higher.Its really that important that you should be prepared for whatever things that could happen on which we know that when it comes to this aspect which it's really hard to predict on what would happen. Expect the unexpected as always so that you won't really be that disappointed. It's not bad to be optimistic but too much expectations will really be leading out to desperation and once things dont happen then it will really be giving out that kind of bad feeling.So you should be prepared on what's to come and act out immediately on which you do seem that's the right call to take.

[Questat]

I have actually brought up this kind of discussion in one of my old thread but a member said that it's not possible that Bitcoin could drop below the price of the previous all time high. Which means that he is suggesting that after the bull market has come and go, Bitcoin will not go below the previous ATH of 2021. I know that our prediction can not be correct all the time  but I believe that after the bull market of 2025, Bitcoin will definitely go below $50k.

It would still be high enough if it drops below $50k. Some might still be hesitant to buy. But seeing it fall below $30k, I think that's a very great opportunity to buy back again and accumulate as much as we can. We all know that when we witness bitcoin price drops so low, that is a good preparation for a bitcoin price reversal, so we should get ready our portfolio prior achieving that.

[pawel7777]

(...)
But now I would like to focus on another point. What is the minimum price mark that bitcoin will reach in the current cryptomarket cycle, because the lower the price, the more bitcoin (parts of BTC) can be bought. How low do you think bitcoin will fall in price after reaching $100K (or higher)?

If we assume that price action remains cyclical and moves according to the 4-year cycles, I believe the minimum calculated for this cycle was around $75,000, this is based on the average rate that each cycle's returns are lower than in the immediately preceding cycle.
According to this, some could say that we've already hit that, as the ATH (per coinmarketcap) was $73,750, but we all know that was mostly due to the approval of the spot ETFs, and it wasn't in line with the usual timing, so I wouldn't count that.

[Wexnident]

~

If we were to take in the same ratio as the past (which is around 4. something ish) then at 100k we'd probably see anywhere between 20-25k. Wouldn't assume that it's going to happen 100% though. We might even drop lower ngl since 100k is a price point MANY people are expecting and many people are probably planning to dump their coins there and then. We might even go below past 16k and maybe hover around 13-15k. That's at worst that could happen though imo.

We might also see a gradual increase instead of a sudden pump, unlike the past cycles and in that case, I don't think we'd ever see a mass dump from the market and instead we'd probably just drop down a few 10s below, maybe 10-20k down the ATH.

[michellee]

If we talk about how deep Bitcoin price will fall after reaching $100k, that still not easy because Bitcoin will go down in any lower price. Maybe that price will fall between $40k-$50k like today. But if more people panic seeing the correction, the price will go down for more.

If in 2022, the minimum level is at $16k after reach $67k, maybe after Bitcoin price reach $100k, it will go down and reach $30k-$40k or stay at $50k. We don't have a right prediction so unfortunately, we can only prepare for the fall with some money to buy back Bitcoin. That will be another chances to us to buy Bitcoin so we should not miss that moment.

We already see $73k as the highest price at this moment. The price can reach $100k this year or next year so we can wait and enjoy the ride.

[Ricardo11]

We will definitely see Bitcoin 100K at some point, maybe later this year or next year. The demand for Bitcoin is increasing day by day, and the number of Bitcoin holders is also increasing.

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If we look at the history of Bitcoin, so we can see that every time it has gone down, it has gone up again. Here in 2017, Bitcoin pumped a lot from 1K to 20K. And after that it made ATH in 2021 where it was 69K. And since then the price of Bitcoin has been falling and in November 2022 it went down to 16K. And since then, And then the bitcoin slowly increased by pumping and dumping.


If we look at this year's calculations, we can see that on the first day of 2024, i.e. January 1, its value was $42,272, and in the following month it increased by 43.66% to $63,915. And in its next month i.e. March 2024 it increased by 16.61% making a new ATH in history which is ATH of $73,737.

And currently bitcoin is dumping, but it will definitely increase. We will see a good one very soon. And maybe by the end of this year it will go above 75K, and next year we will see an ATH above 100K.

[el kaka22]

I am not sure where it will fall, but as long as it reaches there and goes beyond, that should be more than enough for all of us, because it is something that will be very important for everyone. The reality is that we are not seeing anything all that crazy right now, it has to be something that will take a while and as long as we see that type of improve the current system and should be very important feeling.

I believe that the best thing we can do is reaching that 100k because it would allow us to do more with what we can see. After seeing the price reaching those levels, it becomes something very good and people get more hyped about the potential of the future. Even if it drops to 30k, they know it could be 100k+ and that's why it is a good thing and we could do very well. I think that is why it is a good thing and I believe that we will recover a lot faster and do very well after reaching it, the potential will be there and the hype will always be there too.

[Odusko]

$100k isn't the peak price of this cycle but pretty sure that this would really be that a strong resistance which needs up to break because there would really be tons that will be selling out into this price.We won't know on what would be the peak price of this cycle on which I'm sure that it won't be just that 100k but rather 150k-200k but well everyone is really that expecting something higher.Its really that important that you should be prepared for whatever things that could happen on which we know that when it comes to this aspect which it's really hard to predict on what would happen. Expect the unexpected as always so that you won't really be that disappointed. It's not bad to be optimistic but too much expectations will really be leading out to desperation and once things dont happen then it will really be giving out that kind of bad feeling.So you should be prepared on what's to come and act out immediately on which you do seem that's the right call to take.

The reality of the matter is that, many have expected a lot from Bitcoin and most of them anticipate the $100k BTC price so yes alot will be selling off their Bitcoin holdings at that price without looking back, and for sure it may force the price to drop significantly that could affect the overall market conditions, although no matter the level of sell off that happen at that level, it won't push the price below what we have currently and regardless of what it is seeing the price of Bitcoin noise diving downward up to 50k when it touch the $100k Bitcoin price is somewhat unrealistic since we may have seen a lot of liquidation that will disallowed that from happening.

Unless if the market is under heavy attack, only then such a thing as making Bitcoin noise diving backwards in that level will happen, and I am sure that if Bitcoin touch the 100k benchmark, it won't stop there, because there is likely hold that the price may continue to rise even above that amount.

But to anyone who bought bitcoin any were below 70k will be selling definitely at that price of 100k Bitcoin Price since at that point their already made about 30% of their gains.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I have actually brought up this kind of discussion in one of my old thread but a member said that it's not possible that Bitcoin could drop below the price of the previous all time high. Which means that he is suggesting that after the bull market has come and go, Bitcoin will not go below the previous ATH of 2021. I know that our prediction can not be correct all the time  but I believe that after the bull market of 2025, Bitcoin will definitely go below $50k.

It would still be high enough if it drops below $50k. Some might still be hesitant to buy. But seeing it fall below $30k, I think that's a very great opportunity to buy back again and accumulate as much as we can. We all know that when we witness bitcoin price drops so low, that is a good preparation for a bitcoin price reversal, so we should get ready our portfolio prior achieving that.

You are correct, mate, When price drop so badly, especially the price of Bitcoin, that present a big opportunity to buy and make more profit after the price has spike again. During the bear market, although we don't what the price will fall to but even if the price is going to fall below $30k, there are investors that will buy at $40k before the price will drop further, but those people that's going to buy at the bottom will make more profit.

[darkangel11]

When bitcoin broke the ATH of 2022 this year and climbed to $73k before it started dropping down, some predicted that bitcoin couldn't drop below $50k again this year, which Bitcoin has proven them wrong. 
 

I'd argue that they were right with their predictions. Most investors rely on daily candles and see them as an indicator of market strengths and weaknesses. Since bitcoin is largely shallow and it's easy to get an hourly candle that gets nullified within the next 2 or 3 hours. The stable level that was defended was around $53k and there indeed was a wick down to 49500, but all that it showed is low market depth at that exact moment.
IMO if we go to $100k we can expect a 60% correction from there, so $40k is in play. The higher we go with the FOMO the higher the bottom will be. With $120k top, I would expect $55k to be the low point.
If we go lower, I'd start buying at $60k anyway. 50% is always a great moment to buy. If we went to 40k this year, I'd probably be selling all my stuff to get more bitcoin.

[lixer]

If we talk about how deep Bitcoin price will fall after reaching $100k, that still not easy because Bitcoin will go down in any lower price. Maybe that price will fall between $40k-$50k like today. But if more people panic seeing the correction, the price will go down for more.

If in 2022, the minimum level is at $16k after reach $67k, maybe after Bitcoin price reach $100k, it will go down and reach $30k-$40k or stay at $50k. We don't have a right prediction so unfortunately, we can only prepare for the fall with some money to buy back Bitcoin. That will be another chances to us to buy Bitcoin so we should not miss that moment.

We already see $73k as the highest price at this moment. The price can reach $100k this year or next year so we can wait and enjoy the ride.

Usually when there is a huge bull run, the bottom is about 80% of the all time high if you check the historical prices, give or take of course. This is why I think that if we can break to 100k, then the bottom would be 20k, but I think we will break over 100k, and reach to 130k or so prices, which means that the bottom would be 26k or so.

This is why I believe that next time we may have hard time going under 30k price, even if we do it would be a quick one that bounces up real quick. Of course, in order to see what the bottom would be and speculate about it, first we need to see the top, if we can see the top then we can make a deduction about what will happen later on. So we need to wait, first wait and see the top, and see the new all time high, and after it starts to go down then we can start talking about what the bottom of next bear run will be. I think a 80% fall from all time high is still a good idea, you can wait until then before you start buying again.

[Coyster]

Let me remind you that in 2018, bitcoin reached a price of ~$16.5K and fell to ~$3.5K, in 2022 - ~$67.5K with a minimum level of ~$16K.

Interesting discussion, with adoption from institutional investors and the growth of BTC in the last couple of years, quite a lot of people believe we would not drop so low like in previous cycles, and even if i want to agree with them, i am not so sure. BTC can be unpredictable and can lose 20-30% in a few hours. I'll speculate that if the price rises above $100,000, then it wouldn't fall lower than $50,000, but that's just my speculation, and i'll wait and see if i'll be wrong.

[Finestream]

No one can give precise answer to this most especially that we are not yet in the $100k btc price. But even so, knowing it will still be happening soon, let me tell you my own guess. Just believe me when I say, regardless of its current price, the chances to fall on $20k is still highly possible. It's not actually on how high the current price is, but it's more on how heavy or deep the impact of its price down fall. The most important thing here is price recovery is also highly possible after a drastic price drop.

[shinratensei_]

No one can give precise answer to this most especially that we are not yet in the $100k btc price. But even so, knowing it will still be happening soon, let me tell you my own guess. Just believe me when I say, regardless of its current price, the chances to fall on $20k is still highly possible. It's not actually on how high the current price is, but it's more on how heavy or deep the impact of its price down fall. The most important thing here is price recovery is also highly possible after a drastic price drop.

any price mark is always possible in bearish but personally since institutional investors are buying at around price of $50k then I highly doubt it will dump that low.
unless something like blackrock also dumping at the ATH, the price won't go down that low but I've heard many of this institutional investors are saying BTC will reach 1 million I guess that's the price point where they really gonna sell their stacks.

regardless if ever price hits that low, it will be great opportunity to setup for the next bullish (if any) because that price is simply too low in my opinion.
even BTC at around $30k-$40k already have so much liquidity waiting to catch BTC at some point.

the price of sub $30k i think can only happen at the deepest dump ever in the next bearish cycle.

[michellee]

If we talk about how deep Bitcoin price will fall after reaching $100k, that still not easy because Bitcoin will go down in any lower price. Maybe that price will fall between $40k-$50k like today. But if more people panic seeing the correction, the price will go down for more.

If in 2022, the minimum level is at $16k after reach $67k, maybe after Bitcoin price reach $100k, it will go down and reach $30k-$40k or stay at $50k. We don't have a right prediction so unfortunately, we can only prepare for the fall with some money to buy back Bitcoin. That will be another chances to us to buy Bitcoin so we should not miss that moment.

We already see $73k as the highest price at this moment. The price can reach $100k this year or next year so we can wait and enjoy the ride.

Usually when there is a huge bull run, the bottom is about 80% of the all time high if you check the historical prices, give or take of course. This is why I think that if we can break to 100k, then the bottom would be 20k, but I think we will break over 100k, and reach to 130k or so prices, which means that the bottom would be 26k or so.

This is why I believe that next time we may have hard time going under 30k price, even if we do it would be a quick one that bounces up real quick. Of course, in order to see what the bottom would be and speculate about it, first we need to see the top, if we can see the top then we can make a deduction about what will happen later on. So we need to wait, first wait and see the top, and see the new all time high, and after it starts to go down then we can start talking about what the bottom of next bear run will be. I think a 80% fall from all time high is still a good idea, you can wait until then before you start buying again.

I can not imagine what will happen if the price reach the bottom in $20k. People must take care their emotion to see that price and hold on tight their Bitcoin. But if they can think much about that, that situation is a very good situation because they can buy back Bitcoin without selling their Bitcoin.

At $20k-$26k, they can have a chance to accumulate many Bitcoin amount especially for people who have much money. They will not want to miss that time to buy Bitcoin at that price level. The bottom price may soon coming so we must prepare with our money to buy back.

We already saw the highest price of Bitcoin so far is at $73k and now the price down to $56k-$58k ( the price now ). If the correction coming again, that can push the price to go down and maybe that will be at $50k-$51k or even worst the price will be at $49k. Hold on tight guys.

[Marvell1]

Let me remind you that in 2018, bitcoin reached a price of ~$16.5K and fell to ~$3.5K, in 2022 - ~$67.5K with a minimum level of ~$16K.

Interesting discussion, with adoption from institutional investors and the growth of BTC in the last couple of years, quite a lot of people believe we would not drop so low like in previous cycles, and even if i want to agree with them, i am not so sure. BTC can be unpredictable and can lose 20-30% in a few hours. I'll speculate that if the price rises above $100,000, then it wouldn't fall lower than $50,000, but that's just my speculation, and i'll wait and see if i'll be wrong.

I also support that scenario, things have completely changed since bitcoin ETFs were approved and many large institutional investors entered the market. This means that bitcoin volatility will also decrease and I don't think we will see or have the opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin after each bull cycle ends.

We don't even know where the top of this cycle is yet so it's hard to predict the bottom but I also believe it's unlikely bitcoin will drop more than 50% like previous bear cycles. Bitcoin will definitely become more stable and less volatile.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is difficult to determine when it can fall if we do not know exactly what its ATH will be, if we knew that it could go up to about $50k we could talk about about $70-$80k that it could go down and that would be the limit to which it could fall, of course all that is speculation, it is not that I am going to regret it, I am just assuming a scenario that is possible, probable but not certain, it all depends on how high its next ATH reaches, which are usually very good, in BTC every ATH is very juicy and many of us love it, it always surprises us, so with BTC it is always good to be surprised.

[BITCOIN4X]

Data from bitcoin's past trading history may help speculators about where the highest point is and where the lowest point is after the next ATH. The problem is, all of this data is only data that is not fully reliable for the future, I mean everything is still uncertain. The percentage of bitcoin's price decline after the November 2021 ATH was -77% more (CMIIW), so the range of decline will not be far from that number if we refer to past history.

So if bitcoin hits $100k in its next ATH, then it could be that the lowest price will be in the range of $20k to $25k. But again, this is just unreliable speculation because anything can still be different following the rapid growth of interest in bitcoin.

[Odusko]

We have not gotten to all-time high yet. So making prediction now can be wrong. We do not know yet if bitcoin will get to over $150000 or not.

But if I should guess what the price of bitcoin could fall to during bear market, all that I believe is that bitcoin is not getting below $20000 ever again. That was its all-time high in 2017 but not getting below it ever again.

For now we have gone beyond that stage and level that Bitcoin can ever drop down to below 20k and possibility that we may see a price above 100k in the next all time high Bitcoin price is high also, so for sure what we can make out from all of this is that.

1: Bitcoin have gone beyond the level of dropping down to any amount below 50k and if that be the case, then the minimum correction price for now will still be around 60k and above and with minimum volitilities.

2: the possibility that we may likely get another all time market Price before the year 2024 runs out will and is also there so we have to take note of that also.

[STT]

I thought the last low could have been 10k if it were really bad because we had spent so much time near that round number, just like 100k people imagine significance in a larger amount of zeros at the end.   I wont say the exact number but all you have to recognize is that 16k was actually a bullish low because way back when it would have been a high number yet now it was the bitter end of a sell off hence bullish.

Iam sure next gloom and doom sell off we see a similar kind of low that is also secretly a positive.  You could predict the low off that likely repeat, where could a low be and still be a positive; I guess 50k maybe would be one heck of a high mark for the most negative take given.
   This could be more easily seen if moving to very large time frames, Japanese candlesticks with a monthly bar or quarter or 1 year each price point.