What is the worst element of your betting system?

[Julien_Olynpic]

If you are not into sports betting for fun or not only for fun, then I would like to ask you: what is the worst element in your strategy and betting system: analytics and prediction of match results, risk management, analysis of bookmaker odds, analysis of bookmakers? Maybe something else?
The thing is that often your loss can arise from one "weakest link in the chain". At the same time, other elements of the strategy or betting system can be quite good.

[Pandu Geddon]

The most frequent influence on me in betting ends badly is the analysis of betting odds. especially a very strong team match even on paper will definitely win. Odds are definitely smaller but that allows us to bet multi with similar Odds options. not enough with that, usually the biggest mistake is to raise the bet. the results are in accordance with predictions, but for some reason, there will always be unexpected matches.
At times like that, then we must really believe that gambling always relies on luck.

[Adbitco]

The most frequent influence on me in betting ends badly is the analysis of betting odds. especially a very strong team match even on paper will definitely win. Odds are definitely smaller but that allows us to bet multi with similar Odds options. not enough with that, usually the biggest mistake is to raise the bet. the results are in accordance with predictions, but for some reason, there will always be unexpected matches.
At times like that, then we must really believe that gambling always relies on luck.

This mostly happened when either the team assigned a new player and due to the trust we have in our favorite team we would definitely give the win even with the smaller odds we think that are possible to win over the other opposition team, but when the results didn't come out as planned it weakens us because to view or preview back the analysis there were every chances for one to win at last one ended up losing even with much time and forecast yet still didn't go as planned.

[Ziskinberg]

For me, analysis is usually valuable for winning; that’s why we constantly refine our strategy to learn from past mistakes and create a winning approach. I think I've already built that strategy on paper, but honestly, my real weakness is discipline when it comes to sports betting. Sometimes, I struggle to stick to my plan. If I had followed it with discipline, who knows, I might already be profitable by now.

[mindrust]

I noticed the more I think about it the more obsessed I get with my bet and the more obsessed I get with it, the more stressful the bet becomes for me. Since stress is very harmful to human body and nobody needs it, I decided to stop doing too much research on a game. I just read the basics, come up with an educated guess and stick with it. If I keep digging, my initial answer changes many times and then I find myself think about way too many possibilities. Since human mind doesn't work like a computer which can make many calculations at the same time, I think we shouldn't try to replicate computers. There are 2 simple reasons: 1- We can't do that, 2- It is not even healthy to try it.

[Hirose UK]

I think it about odds and betting options, for analysis strategies and others it might not have any influence or problem because from the beginning you can see the advantages of each team and it is possible to get all the information needed to take the right and proper betting options.
Sometimes odds never really matches expectations where the favorite team gets very low odd and even that is very unprofitable if it gives win, on the other hand I often see various options that should be there but are missing or not given by the bookie.
But indeed all these things when giving opportunities and becoming success can also be big advantage and never expected, but still it is the worst thing that is always felt in sports bet, we have to be smart in choosing it and really consider one by one.

[Orpichukwu]

For me, analysis is usually valuable for winning; that’s why we constantly refine our strategy to learn from past mistakes and create a winning approach. I think I've already built that strategy on paper, but honestly, my real weakness is discipline when it comes to sports betting. Sometimes, I struggle to stick to my plan. If I had followed it with discipline, who knows, I might already be profitable by now.

If you already know the best strategy to follow, which means you have a little to minimum problem with sports betting, all you have to do now is focus on how you can stay with your own decision and don't go back on your own words unless you don't believe so much in your prediction that you have some doubt, which could be the reason why you always end up choosing a different strategy at the end of the day.

[iv4n]

The thing is that often your loss can arise from one "weakest link in the chain".

Many times it happened to me that for one game I think that it is the "weakest link in the chain" and I lose a parlay from a game I was sure of. So I doubt we can conclude that we often lose from just one game we thought was the weakest link. Many times we lost on games we were sure they would win.

I can't say I get the question from the headline, the worst thing is when we lose a parlay just because of one or two games... but when it comes to betting systems for sure we are trying to find the best picks we can. I have an example from yesterday:



I chose my picks and just one game went the wrong way (Young Boys over 2.5 ended with just one goal). With parlays and a lot of games, it's hard to win, while with singles and maybe two picks we have the higher chances to win. But I had fun picking the games and hoping for a big win...
I will try the same thing today, it's about having fun while searching for good picks...

[ajiz138]

The most frequent influence on me in betting ends badly is the analysis of betting odds. especially a very strong team match even on paper will definitely win. Odds are definitely smaller but that allows us to bet multi with similar Odds options. not enough with that, usually the biggest mistake is to raise the bet. the results are in accordance with predictions, but for some reason, there will always be unexpected matches.
At times like that, then we must really believe that gambling always relies on luck.

It often happens that you are too confident with the odds that are bet small {strong team vs low team} at the most odds that have 1.20 that still lose because of unexpected matches.
I've seen someone lose a huge amount with odds of 1.09, imagine it should be a win on paper right?

Sports betting analysis is still needed, luck also depends on it, so for me the worst system is with low odds still losing.

[Charles-Tim]

I do not think I have any worst element for now. I go with little amount of money and I do not bet frequently. I won than lost bet this year. I only go for just one match in a week if I want to bet that week. I noticed that I lost parley that I have gone for in the past, including the ones that I went for in this year. All these have helped me with good analyses to win than lose. But if I lose, I can afford to lose the money. Although, I like to win than lose.

[TheUltraElite]

I would not call it weak but rather the most unpredictable part and that is the analysis.

Our method of analysis giving weightage to something vs something not is not anything that can ever be close to correct in even 50% of cases. Because you might think that factor is important but it might not or its relative weightage might not.

In more English terms, you have got zero accuracy when analyzing previous results to predict the current result. We might think ourselves to be gurus in sports betting but in reality luck determines everything.

[Baofeng]

If you are not into sports betting for fun or not only for fun, then I would like to ask you: what is the worst element in your strategy and betting system: analytics and prediction of match results, risk management, analysis of bookmaker odds, analysis of bookmakers? Maybe something else?
The thing is that often your loss can arise from one "weakest link in the chain". At the same time, other elements of the strategy or betting system can be quite good.

Of course, it will be the analysis of the bookmarker, specially if the odds is very different from what you are expecting. Because as a sports bettor, you have your own analysis of the game and even before the actual odds comes out, you know who will be the favorite. But then again, if the odds is listed, and then the favorite is like 1.1x-1.2x only, sometimes you have to question whether you are in the right sports or not.

If f** up you up mentality, and then you can your mindset and maybe think of betting the underdog or not bet at all. Messes it up but then you will look for other odds that might suit your need, or at least what you wanted to see like 1.8x or something.

[Su-asa]

The most frequent influence on me in betting ends badly is the analysis of betting odds. especially a very strong team match even on paper will definitely win. Odds are definitely smaller but that allows us to bet multi with similar Odds options. not enough with that, usually the biggest mistake is to raise the bet. the results are in accordance with predictions, but for some reason, there will always be unexpected matches.
At times like that, then we must really believe that gambling always relies on luck.

This is why you must cut down your stakes no matter how safe the bet might seem to you, I think the odds system and selections has affected every gambler into sports betting Because the odds can be very deceiving. Sometimes the odds doesn't really matter, even a combined games with an odd of 1.08 has ended badly for me, this made me come to terms with the idea that sports betting deals with a lot of luck. Strategies and predictions are just done to have an advantage and perhaps mitigate losses but they are not a hundred percent accurate

[AB de Royse777]

analytics and prediction of match results, risk management

These are my weakness. I also love to chase odds :-D

[coin-investor]

If you are not into sports betting for fun or not only for fun, then I would like to ask you: what is the worst element in your strategy and betting system: analytics and prediction of match results, risk management, analysis of bookmaker odds, analysis of bookmakers? Maybe something else?
The thing is that often your loss can arise from one "weakest link in the chain". At the same time, other elements of the strategy or betting system can be quite good.

I think for me it is attachment, even though based on your assessment, a certain player or participant is likely going to lose, but its your sentimental favorite because it has proven that it can come out with a very good performance to come up with an upset.

One example is horse racing. I thought that I have a good betting system in horse betting, but when it comes to your sentimental favorites, you have second thoughts about your system, This has been the flaw when you're betting on horse racing, because some horses always come out with a good performance even with a handicap that renders him limited.

[Solosanz]

Analysis of bookmakers is the thing you should avoid if you want to focus to win.

Bookmakers don't care if you win or lose, so the article or analysis they give is mostly just a cheap prediction or helped by AI.

Parlay of safe bets (odds below @1.50) isn't safe too, the risk is pretty much same like betting on huge underdog.

The unpredictability of sports games forms a major part of this risk. Predictions and strategies are tools to give one an edge, but they can never guarantee a win because of the unpredictable nature of sports.

If you bet on top league, the results aren't really unpredictable. I'd say International match and International tournaments are more unpredictable.

[Wexnident]

~

Me myself and I. Pretty sure that's the only thing that can be blamed here no matter what since in the first place, anything outside of that is something that you yourself accepted and acknowledged to be part of the process, so blaming those seems like you're just blaming your decision. Anyway, back to the me thing, specifically I'd probably target my ignorance (on purpose sometimes) towards ignoring how teams are painfully weak compared to their last season. I somehow keep pushing the idea to my brain that "nah, that's just like sea sickness, it'll go away" kind of thing.

Analysis wise I'd like to think I'm good at it (outside of my bias for my favorite teams), but hey a person can go wrong sometimes.

[danherbias07]

Good question.

I have a bad habit in the past of adding a heavy underdog in my parlay which is one of my biggest mistakes. Risk management is something that I really thought about and I am not doing it anymore.
Most of the time, when I bet for a heavy underdog, I keep it in a single bet only because I don't want to mess up my parlays anymore just like how I did it in the past which mostly are losses and I am just wasting money by doing that.
Today, I keep my parlays below x1.50 (sometimes x1.60) and I find it more on the side of winning than it is taking heavy underdogs just to explode the multiplier. One of the things that I think has changed my view when it comes to sports betting.

[EarnOnVictor]

If you are not into sports betting for fun or not only for fun, then I would like to ask you: what is the worst element in your strategy and betting system: analytics and prediction of match results, risk management, analysis of bookmaker odds, analysis of bookmakers? Maybe something else?

What you listed above are all good and gamblers have used them to achieve their good gambling results. Let me take them one after the other.

The analysis is very good, it helps you sort for the needed information of old and current feat, stat and results to be able to predict the possible match results. And of course, the match results are a vital part of sports analysis as well, you will always need them but you should never use them alone. As for the risk management, it is also good, I consider this to choose the odds I go for, that is why you will never see me going for an odd of 1.5 or less in a single bet, it can't be worth the risk management.

Again, the analysis of the bookmaker's odds is also a good consideration by many gamblers these days and I've noticed that they always reflect the result of my sports analysis, except in a few cases. I don't use it but if anyone uses it, I would not be surprised. Lastly, I don't know what you mean by the "analysis of bookmakers," it must have been the odds consideration.

[Agbamoni]

I have tried betting on games with low odds by picking just a few games. Maybe 2 or 3 maximum and stake them with a huge amount but at the end of most games I end up losing them. I kept wondering why even low odds that I expected would be easy to play out would be the ones spoiling the entire game making me not win. What I came to understand is that, not even the game that 99% of bettors think will play will end up playing. Circumstance can in or out of the pitch and things turn around.