Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec

[_act_]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

[d5000]

The "post halving shock"'s incidence is overrated in my opinion.

Miners mine 450 BTC per day. Yesterday over a million BTC were traded on exchanges. It was an extraordinary volume, but normally the volume is well in the six digits (even on weekends mostly over 200k/day).

At the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's yearly supply inflation went down from 1,6% to 0,8%.

The incidence of newly mined coins in the market is negligible now. IMO the last halving where miners' subsidy reduction did really make a difference was 2016, when supply inflation went down from 8% to 4%. 8% per year is still a high figure compared to the "money printing" that fiat currencies experience, so before 2016 there was a fairly high available supply by miners which had to be "countered" by new investments. With a 4% inflation Bitcoin entered "fiat territory" in 2016, to then lower gradually.

This means that since 2016, for me Bitcoin is already quite scarce (although scarcity has to take demand into account, so it's scarce if we assume there's static demand) and the subsequent subdidy reductions by halvings do not really make a difference.

Apart from Trump, however, there may be some other factors in play, like the Microsoft decision to ask their shareholders about Bitcoin purchases. But I think the US election is indeed the main driver of the price, at least in the last ten days.

[terrific]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both.

Both and some other factors too like the Spot ETFs that have been traded nowadays and even during the approval, there were good news already.

If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

We will never know.

[OgNasty]

The stories don't matter at all.  Trump, war, whatever...  Bitcoin is going higher because that's what it has been designed to do.  It goes on a 4-year cycle and no matter how much analysts want to try and prove themselves by calling all the little ups and downs of the market and explaining them, the only thing that matters at the end of the day is the 4-year cycle.  People shouldn't get caught up in trading (of course there are certain events like mtgox that were obvious to trade) and instead just stack sats.  There will always be events happening, but the 4-year cycle cannot be denied and rules all else.

[Perfectbaby]

I have also thought about this as well though, if it was Kamala Harris who won the election, well by now we could had seen bitcoin at the low causing serious panicked in the market. I believe lot of people could had sold out heavily because US would now be an anti-bitcoin zone but this it was on the reverse as Trump did emerged as the winner, though it was his winning which actually propelled the market driving so crazy even though there are other factors.

[EL MOHA]

I have also thought about this as well though, if it was Kamala Harris who won the election, well by now we could had seen bitcoin at the low causing serious panicked in the market. I believe lot of people could had sold out heavily because US would now be an anti-bitcoin zone but this it was on the reverse as Trump did emerged as the winner, though it was his winning which actually propelled the market driving so crazy even though there are other factors.

The thing is bitcoin is strongly follows its historical trend more than any other fundamental news or hype surrounding it. Yes the Trump win actually added its  hype and might have been the part of the rapid pump but seriously bitcoin was definitely going to increase in this quarter of the year. Would there be a different move had Kamala win, I would have said yes a little correction might have taken place but the dip wouldn’t be as heavy as the this current pump.

People think like had Kamala won it would have been bad for bitcoin but I say no it wouldn’t have been because bitcoin would’ve still follow its pattern after a few corrections. Take a look at 2020 post halving bitcoin did pumped in the last quater even though it was Biden who is not crypto friendly that won

[JeffBrad12]

People are anticipating flexibility of regulation post trump winning, there's rumour about bitcoin strategic reserve as well, I think it's like chain effect, since trump is winning, it confirmed the bullish sentiment that people are having, therefore the big buying pressure is coming to BTC market and it literally escaped from gold, equity also going up, seems like gold already overbought.

after all, the market is all about the general sentiment, if people are optimistic, BTC will always go bullish.

moreover, current bullrun is just starting, we might see even greater, altcoin season isn't here yet either.

[d5000]

The 4-year cycle is a popular theory, but evidence for it its thin at this moment. We had only two complete 4-year cycles "from a major ATH to the next major ATH": 2013-2017 and 2017-2021.We don't know how long the current cycle will be, so we can't count 2021-25.

If we take lows, we have three "cycles" with durations between 3 and 4 years already, but they don't look that regular: we had major lows in late 2011, early 2015, late 2018 and late 2022. 2011-2015 is a little more than three years, 2015-18 three and a half year (2011 and 18 lows are almost exactly 7 years away), and only 2018-22 is the "traditional" 4 year distance.

In addition we had the interesting phenomenon of the 2019 mid-year rally, getting surprisingly close to the ATH only half a year after the 2018 low, this rally was completely detached from halvings. It's a legit assumption imo that we would have had an ATH much earlier (probably in early to mid 2020, before the halving) if the Covid panic and crash that set in in February/March didn't happen, and subsequently FOMO could have set in earlier.

This doesn't mean that the 4 year cycle is totally unplausible (although I dispute the post-halving rally theory as written in my last post) but we need more time (at least ~5 years more) to confirm it imo. For me, the relative regularity could also have to do with attention cycles and are thus probably more driven by demand fluctuations than by the supply schedule.

[Smack That Ace]

What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

He is not the sole catalyst for bitcoin's growth but his impact cannot be denied as it is no small thing for a US president to express support for bitcoin. This could even be a historic turning point for bitcoin as well as the crypto industry as the industry’s growth in the next 4 years will largely depend on his policies and regulations.

Besides the impact of halving and Trump, there is another big impact that we should not ignore: ETFs. Large amounts of money are pouring into the market through ETFs and creating demand greater than supply, which will also have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin.

I wasn't very bullish on Harris from the start, she's not very bitcoin friendly and that could be a huge hurdle for the crypto industry if she replaces Trump.

[bitterguy28]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

It is expected even before the Election fever is that bitcoin and the whole market will grow Bullying because of the past halving effect in which we have witnessed over how many times now?

this election and winning of President Trump is just added to the flavor and pushes the market to go faster than we expected to happen in December upto early next year .

[Pi-network314159]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

I think all plays a role in making bitcoin growth so rapid, as a Matter of fact bitcoin growth can be trigger by anything. Emagine if Elon Musk tweet that he will join suit with Michael Saylors microstrategy to invest in bitcoin or buying %5-10 of bitcoin Total supply in regards of making it a new Gold, what do you think will happen to bitcoin? It will surly increase more.

If kamala Harris was elected , I do t think anything will happen to bitcoin growth because she has not said anything positive about bitcoin during her campaign. Meanwhile I don't care if Trump and kamala makes bitcoin increase, all I know is that bitcoin will be fine without them. Afterall during the first campaign of Trump he made some promised in regards to bitcoin and yet he couldn't do anything yet bitcoin increased. Perhaps he never believed in bitcoin after seeing bitcoin so so well now he suddenly develop interest. Let's see how it goes this time around

All I know is that bitcoin will continue creating new ATH with or without some people.

[Justbillywitt]

Who cares what's actually making bitcoin to pump. There is no point arguing or debating what's making bitcoin to pump. The most important thing is that bitcoin is pumping and everyone is happy that's what really matters. Even if Kamala had won the election, bitcoin was designed to pump even though it would have experienced a little delay, but the pump would have been inevitable. So long as bitcoin is winning, whatever that's pumping it should continue doing it.

[Majestic-milf]

 One of the factors that affects Bitcoin price if I'm not mistaken is people's sentiment so despite the fact that we experienced the Bitcoin halving this year, I will not accredit the sudden pump in price at present as the effects of the post halving event, if anything, this year was a bit silent, don't know how the other years have been.
 Granted, it's not that we should attribute the success of Bitcoin to Trump's victory in the election because before he won or ever thought to use being in support of Bitcoin as means to get votes, the coin has been thriving but we need to admit that this his victory played a big role up to the extent of experiencing three ATHs in the space of a week.

[Cryptoprincess101]

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were.

So why did the post-halving effect come exactly after the US elections was conducted after about 7 months since the halving event. Even if the post-halving also prompted the current surge in the price of bitcoin, majority of the impact was basically as a result of the post-election effects let's just be realistic.

What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both.

I can also say that the post-halving events and Trump's victory was the cause of the bullish trend we are experiencing now but since it came immediately after the US elections, i would say that Trump's victory played the major roles.

If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

Nothing much would have happened to the price of bitcoin if Kamala Harris had won, it would have only recorded either a sluggish increase or a slow downtrend since Kamala Harris didn't give any emphasis on her stands about cryptocurrencies. 

[philipma1957]

last time trump was in he passed a brutal bill that really hurt all crytpo.

it went into effect jan 1 2018. and btc slumped bigly that month.

I say we are going up because no one is going to pass anything until After feb 1.

this means btc will be safe for 70 days.

[Tmoonz]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

I would say that we shouldn't be in a haste to forget that Bitcoin was doing very much good historically even before the election, hence I quite agree with you that the election generally is not the only reason or factor leading the bull run and even if Bitcoin price wouldn't have been this far but it would have made difference from were it was before, even before the election the month of October and November has already been speculated even though there was no guarantee that bitcoin is liable to make a new all time high. Indeed Bitcoin is bullish $100k on the way, it is at $900k as at time am making this post.

[Josefjix]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

Since American are not the only people trading or holding bitcoin we cannot truly tag the current bullish conditions on bitcoin to Trump winning,  we still have other issues and news that is creating the current conditions.  We cannot also said only the post halving that is creating the current conditions either, as a lot of factors like breaking out of $73,488 the last high low , halving , interest rate cut, unemployment data from USA and most importantly Trump winning are some of the factors.

Finally kamara winning could have affected the market negatively on a temporary basis.  Remember that this market is driven by sentiment and people views on issues matters, and they views especially on social media has been the driving force of the market changing conditions over time.

[Iranus]

Finally kamara wining could have affected the market negatively on a temporary basis.  Remember that this market is driven by sentiment and people views on issues matters,  and they views especially on social media has been the driving force of the market changing conditions over time.

I wonder, assuming Harris wins and the market dumps, what would those who deny Trump's victory is positively impacting Bitcoin say? Do they blame Harris or will they say that the bitcoin price correction has been going on for months and is not over yet, and not because Harris was elected?

I'm not saying all the credit for Bitcoin hitting $93k in the past few days is due to Trump but it's clear his victory has had a positive impact on the market. Because at least for now we can believe that we have the first US president in history to publicly support bitcoin and this will be a huge catalyst. We should not deny this.


You are right, the market is driven by sentiment and people's views, the market is very bullish and believes that Trump is a pro-Bitcoin president. So it is understandable that bitcoin price is increasing.

[Baofeng]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

It's obvious that this recent spike is due to Trump winning the election as he is supposedly a pro-Bitcoin US president. My take is the post halving effect is that we should have felt it even before the election, maybe around September the price could be in a bull run but it's not. However, we have to take into account the pre-halving, we already have a new all time high.

So it's really change the cycle as this is the first time that we have seen it. But then again, in every bull run, there is some sort of catalyst besides the halving, and so in this cycle, it's Trump winning the election. And it could be bigger next year when he officially sits in the White House in January. With that, we should accept the fact that it was really Trump who drives this bull run and into a new all time high in 2025.

[philipma1957]

Finally kamara wining could have affected the market negatively on a temporary basis.  Remember that this market is driven by sentiment and people views on issues matters,  and they views especially on social media has been the driving force of the market changing conditions over time.

I wonder, assuming Harris wins and the market dumps, what would those who deny Trump's victory is positively impacting Bitcoin say? Do they blame Harris or will they say that the bitcoin price correction has been going on for months and is not over yet, and not because Harris was elected?

I'm not saying all the credit for Bitcoin hitting $93k in the past few days is due to Trump but it's clear his victory has had a positive impact on the market. Because at least for now we can believe that we have the first US president in history to publicly support bitcoin and this will be a huge catalyst. We should not deny this.


You are right, the market is driven by sentiment and people's views, the market is very bullish and believes that Trump is a pro-Bitcoin president. So it is understandable that bitcoin price is increasing.

I call bullshit.  What we have a president that previously attacked bitcoin with his like kind changes in 2018. We have a president known to lie and lie and lie.

We have a president that lawsuits are a way of life for him. And millions of morons that believe he is better for BTC when all of BTC's highs came under Joe Biden.

Like I wrote before BTC will do fine for the next 2 months then reality sets in Trump gets his powers back and we get to see what he will really do.

BTW maybe it will be good. USA has had a lot of issues for a lot of years so this certainly will be interesting I am looking forward to find out  what he does.