US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent points to higher inflation

[takuma sato]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply, but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down, this will result in higher inflation as the cost of manufacturing is increased assuming they are even able to move it all back to America in a viable way. So basically, higher inflation would mean that rates stay elevated for longer before we get a rally on risk on assets.

It is also interesting to think what the US10 yield is going to be doing from now on. It seems like was falling down, but wouldn't it go back up if inflation fears are there again? Or has this been priced in already?

Best case scenario, we just climb the wall of worry and the rally continues, but looks like the talking points of a soft landing that was being achieved are not there anymore, so if there is a hard landing, a crash is going to happen sooner or later, which again leads us to think if this is going to be frontrun and therefore there will be no "wall-of-worry-climbing" type of final blowoff top. Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

[shinratensei_]

same here, holding significant amount of cash as well now wondering if i should better reallocate my cash to asset of hedge against inflation.

I think rising inflation in the future is pretty obvious, there's reason why there has been massive flow of capital to gold that causes the price to go so high because the riches want to preserve their wealth making the market deviates.

but I guess i'll just go with bitcoin, in a time of high inflation, BTC has been doing pretty well so far, people who bought it 2 years ago already getting more than 200% profit which is pretty great considering it's more liquid than real estate and the likes.

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

[Alpha Marine]

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

This is true. There is a relation between the devaluation of the dollar and the price of bitcoin. There are many other people like you who would convert whatever fiat they have to bitcoin if they notice inflation rising, and that is why during inflation, the bitcoin price mostly rises.

This is what the saying "hedge against inflation" means. Most people mistake it to mean inflation won't affect you at all. There is no way inflation won't affect you because the cost of things you buy will increase no matter how you do, but if you save your money in bitcoin it won't be affected.

[takuma sato]

same here, holding significant amount of cash as well now wondering if i should better reallocate my cash to asset of hedge against inflation.

I think rising inflation in the future is pretty obvious, there's reason why there has been massive flow of capital to gold that causes the price to go so high because the riches want to preserve their wealth making the market deviates.

but I guess i'll just go with bitcoin, in a time of high inflation, BTC has been doing pretty well so far, people who bought it 2 years ago already getting more than 200% profit which is pretty great considering it's more liquid than real estate and the likes.

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

Im not sure what to use against inflation other than gold, which seems to be working fine in this environment. BTC is definitely not a risk-off asset for now, but a liquidity sponge. I think BTC will go to 100k+ easily on the next round of QE+low interest rates, but not in this situation, so for inflation hedges im looking at gold ETFs (even tho I don't hold any) and very low duration high quality bonds, other than that is just cash deposits.

Covid era is QE+ZIRP, we have no ZIRP so far. Covid was also a black swan so all the risk was priced in very fast, this looks like a slower unwinding of positions that will take a while.

[Free Market Capitalist]

The truth is that Trump and his team are making quite the ass of themselves on these issues. We will see if the one who claimed to be the president who had the best economic results in his first term does not have lousy ones this second.

That's not to mention things like Greenland, I would become the president of Denmark and send a bunch of troops there and ban Trump and his entire team from entering.

Im not sure what to use against inflation other than gold, which seems to be working fine in this environment. BTC is definitely not a risk-off asset for now, but a liquidity sponge. I think BTC will go to 100k+ easily on the next round of QE+low interest rates, but not in this situation, so for inflation hedges im looking at gold ETFs (even tho I don't hold any) and very low duration high quality bonds, other than that is just cash deposits.

Covid era is QE+ZIRP, we have no ZIRP so far. Covid was also a black swan so all the risk was priced in very fast, this looks like a slower unwinding of positions that will take a while.

How can you say that? What you are not clear about is the concept of volatility. Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold but precisely because of this much more profitable and serves not only to protect you from inflation but to beat it by far.

[Cryptohygenic]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply, but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down, this will result in higher inflation as the cost of manufacturing is increased assuming they are even able to move it all back to America in a viable way. So basically, higher inflation would mean that rates stay elevated for longer before we get a rally on risk on assets.

It is also interesting to think what the US10 yield is going to be doing from now on. It seems like was falling down, but wouldn't it go back up if inflation fears are there again? Or has this been priced in already?

Best case scenario, we just climb the wall of worry and the rally continues, but looks like the talking points of a soft landing that was being achieved are not there anymore, so if there is a hard landing, a crash is going to happen sooner or later, which again leads us to think if this is going to be frontrun and therefore there will be no "wall-of-worry-climbing" type of final blowoff top. Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

That was a doomed approach and lack of human conscience. It even sounds irritating as I read the speech because it holds no tendencies that they cares about the average and the less privilege people who are not financially sufficient enough to be able to buy their essential needs with the current time which the government has made difficult for them.
So I see that being said to be baseless.
How can you increase tarrif plans without creating amenities to how the masses can cope with the situation? What does that mean if not extorting the people mindlessly in the name of economy restructuring. It is a shame because the policy is bitter enough and devastating

[Sonia_123]

US Treasury and Federal Agencies to Disclose Crypto Holdings

The U.S. Treasury's upcoming crypto disclosure could transform the government's role in digital assets by offering transparency into its Bitcoin and altcoin holdings.
https://cryptonews.com/news/us-treasury-and-federal-agencies-to-disclose-crypto-holdings/
The U.S. Treasury is set to disclose its crypto holdings, which could transform digital assets into strategic national reserves and shift government policy toward legitimizing cryptocurrencies.
The establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as a “digital Fort Knox” is part of Bitcoin’s growing role as a long-term store of value in federal financial strategy.
This transparency may influence global crypto adoption and market dynamics, as this marks a turning point for both regulation and institutional confidence in digital assets.

[fruktik]

same here, holding significant amount of cash as well now wondering if i should better reallocate my cash to asset of hedge against inflation.

I think rising inflation in the future is pretty obvious, there's reason why there has been massive flow of capital to gold that causes the price to go so high because the riches want to preserve their wealth making the market deviates.

but I guess i'll just go with bitcoin, in a time of high inflation, BTC has been doing pretty well so far, people who bought it 2 years ago already getting more than 200% profit which is pretty great considering it's more liquid than real estate and the likes.

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

Don't you think that investing in Bitcoin is still much more risky than other investment instruments? I understand your desire to earn more profit, but do not forget that you can also lose capital. Remember the story with the price a few years ago. Then people also thought that this was the very asset that would help avoid inflation risks. And what happened then? Yes, exactly, the trend changed to bearish. How many investors suffered colossal losses at that time? Just a huge number. What am I getting at?

You should have a balanced investment portfolio, which will contain assets of different directions. It is desirable if they do not intersect with each other. Only in this case will you have a complete understanding of how to properly manage your capital. Over time, you will learn to properly manage it so that the profit becomes constant and balanced.

[bittraffic]

While we are in crypto already its best to just keep the BTC while the inflation continues to rise. There is a chance that bear market will indeed be here but as long as you just minimize the spending, I think you can figure out later when the market trend changes already.

You got to take it seriously when government officials warns us about whats to come. It would make sense to see what future may look like because of the tariff war that Trump started.

Don't you think that investing in Bitcoin is still much more risky than other investment instruments? I understand your desire to earn more profit, but do not forget that you can also lose capital.

Not really with Bitcoin, if you have 1BTC, it will still be 1BTC regardless of how high the inflation. But its true that the value may be lesser in bear market.

[Fortify]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply, but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down, this will result in higher inflation as the cost of manufacturing is increased assuming they are even able to move it all back to America in a viable way. So basically, higher inflation would mean that rates stay elevated for longer before we get a rally on risk on assets.

It is also interesting to think what the US10 yield is going to be doing from now on. It seems like was falling down, but wouldn't it go back up if inflation fears are there again? Or has this been priced in already?

Best case scenario, we just climb the wall of worry and the rally continues, but looks like the talking points of a soft landing that was being achieved are not there anymore, so if there is a hard landing, a crash is going to happen sooner or later, which again leads us to think if this is going to be frontrun and therefore there will be no "wall-of-worry-climbing" type of final blowoff top. Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

They are literally adding on 10-30% of costs to imports from a whole range of countries, that is far beyond the costs that manufacturers will be able to absorb and will be directly passed on to consumers. This was such a poor understanding of economics by Trump who has made a career out of bullying people in his personal and business life, he's now trying to do that with other countries and it is not going to work out. All it's going to do is cause the rest of the world to trade with each other and make American's a lot poorer in the process. Nobody has ever seen a bigger self inflicted destruction in the history of the world and it's the sort of thing that will end American hegemony and influence - an unbelievably poor decision.

[takuma sato]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply, but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down, this will result in higher inflation as the cost of manufacturing is increased assuming they are even able to move it all back to America in a viable way. So basically, higher inflation would mean that rates stay elevated for longer before we get a rally on risk on assets.

It is also interesting to think what the US10 yield is going to be doing from now on. It seems like was falling down, but wouldn't it go back up if inflation fears are there again? Or has this been priced in already?

Best case scenario, we just climb the wall of worry and the rally continues, but looks like the talking points of a soft landing that was being achieved are not there anymore, so if there is a hard landing, a crash is going to happen sooner or later, which again leads us to think if this is going to be frontrun and therefore there will be no "wall-of-worry-climbing" type of final blowoff top. Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

They are literally adding on 10-30% of costs to imports from a whole range of countries, that is far beyond the costs that manufacturers will be able to absorb and will be directly passed on to consumers. This was such a poor understanding of economics by Trump who has made a career out of bullying people in his personal and business life, he's now trying to do that with other countries and it is not going to work out. All it's going to do is cause the rest of the world to trade with each other and make American's a lot poorer in the process. Nobody has ever seen a bigger self inflicted destruction in the history of the world and it's the sort of thing that will end American hegemony and influence - an unbelievably poor decision.

I was expecting Trump to surprise to the downside so I stayed in cash and did not buy on that short lived rally which was pricing in tariffs, but what he presented was honestly surprising. The calculations are indeed out of wack and don't make much sense. He is adding tariffs in relation to the amount of goods where there is a trade deficit in respect to other countries which is quite absurd no matter how try to understand it. For this I arrive at this conclusion and there are only 2 ways to look at it:

1) The Trump admin has done this in purpose for a reason, most likely, to try to force parties into negotiation
2) The Trump admin has no idea what they are doing

And im also surprised to see the bond market is not buying higher inflation, yields are still above 4%. If tariffs are for real, then the bond market should be frontrunning inflation but isn't for now.

[philipma1957]

The truth is that Trump and his team are making quite the ass of themselves on these issues. We will see if the one who claimed to be the president who had the best economic results in his first term does not have lousy ones this second.

That's not to mention things like Greenland, I would become the president of Denmark and send a bunch of troops there and ban Trump and his entire team from entering.

Im not sure what to use against inflation other than gold, which seems to be working fine in this environment. BTC is definitely not a risk-off asset for now, but a liquidity sponge. I think BTC will go to 100k+ easily on the next round of QE+low interest rates, but not in this situation, so for inflation hedges im looking at gold ETFs (even tho I don't hold any) and very low duration high quality bonds, other than that is just cash deposits.

Covid era is QE+ZIRP, we have no ZIRP so far. Covid was also a black swan so all the risk was priced in very fast, this looks like a slower unwinding of positions that will take a while.

How can you say that? What you are not clear about is the concept of volatility. Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold but precisely because of this much more profitable and serves not only to protect you from inflation but to beat it by far.

Greenland is not capable of self defense. And denmark 🇩🇰 most likely does not want to spend the coin need to defend them

that leaves russia 🇷🇺 or america 🇺🇸 cutting a deal with Greenland 🇬🇱

so trump actually makes sense at least with that one.

[tabas]

These countries where the tariffs are being applied will definitely have to retaliate against what the US has imposed on all of them. They're expected to do some feedback as well and actions for the US not to show that they can dictate to every nation that they're superior to them. I've read the news about the friendship of US and Canada is likely to end just because of this.

Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

I think there is a reason why the big tech company stock owners and holders have to sell for cash. They'd probably see this coming and that's why they have stock up a lot of cash on their end. There is a bigger reason behind that.

[takuma sato]

The truth is that Trump and his team are making quite the ass of themselves on these issues. We will see if the one who claimed to be the president who had the best economic results in his first term does not have lousy ones this second.

That's not to mention things like Greenland, I would become the president of Denmark and send a bunch of troops there and ban Trump and his entire team from entering.

Im not sure what to use against inflation other than gold, which seems to be working fine in this environment. BTC is definitely not a risk-off asset for now, but a liquidity sponge. I think BTC will go to 100k+ easily on the next round of QE+low interest rates, but not in this situation, so for inflation hedges im looking at gold ETFs (even tho I don't hold any) and very low duration high quality bonds, other than that is just cash deposits.

Covid era is QE+ZIRP, we have no ZIRP so far. Covid was also a black swan so all the risk was priced in very fast, this looks like a slower unwinding of positions that will take a while.

How can you say that? What you are not clear about is the concept of volatility. Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold but precisely because of this much more profitable and serves not only to protect you from inflation but to beat it by far.

Greenland is not capable of self defense. And denmark 🇩🇰 most likely does not want to spend the coin need to defend them

that leaves russia 🇷🇺 or america 🇺🇸 cutting a deal with Greenland 🇬🇱

so trump actually makes sense at least with that one.

But when you are try to do strategic negotations about regional power you don't go in there and threaten them with invading them with potentially boots in the ground like we are in 1940 or something. These policies no longer work and they will just make the potential victim of the invasion to try to find other alliances. They should have took a more reasonable approach and try to convince them with arguments how they are lacking military defense against a potential takeover by Russia and China, but with a president that is leaning too much towards Russia and threatens Zelensky as a "dictator" literally, there's just so many things they have gone about the wrong way that now they are seen as goons with no diplomacy and not potential trading partners, and the worst part is they are doing this to what should be allies while they are not thought enough with Russia. Trump has tried to play the dominant card too hard and has gone over the top with this take.

[Fortify]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply, but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down, this will result in higher inflation as the cost of manufacturing is increased assuming they are even able to move it all back to America in a viable way. So basically, higher inflation would mean that rates stay elevated for longer before we get a rally on risk on assets.

It is also interesting to think what the US10 yield is going to be doing from now on. It seems like was falling down, but wouldn't it go back up if inflation fears are there again? Or has this been priced in already?

Best case scenario, we just climb the wall of worry and the rally continues, but looks like the talking points of a soft landing that was being achieved are not there anymore, so if there is a hard landing, a crash is going to happen sooner or later, which again leads us to think if this is going to be frontrun and therefore there will be no "wall-of-worry-climbing" type of final blowoff top. Im personally holding relevant amounts of cash but I still have some exposure to the market in case that happens.

American's don't like cheap goods, that can be produced for $2 an hour overseas, but would rather they pay other Americans $20 an hour to do menial tasks and pay 10x as much for products - according to Trump. That is what this boils down towards. Globalization is a constantly evolving trade mechanism that moves manufacturing to wherever the cheapest base is - which should free up workers in more developed countries to produce more value-added products that are higher in the development chain. Instead of taking that approach, Trump's recent tariffs cause jobs that are currently paying cents per product, to move back to the US in order to be produced for dollars, completely breaking supply chains that have been developed over decades and upending global trade. It is extremely damaging and completely undermines trust in American hegemony, so all trade will start to route around them.

[Abiky]

same here, holding significant amount of cash as well now wondering if i should better reallocate my cash to asset of hedge against inflation.

I think rising inflation in the future is pretty obvious, there's reason why there has been massive flow of capital to gold that causes the price to go so high because the riches want to preserve their wealth making the market deviates.

but I guess i'll just go with bitcoin, in a time of high inflation, BTC has been doing pretty well so far, people who bought it 2 years ago already getting more than 200% profit which is pretty great considering it's more liquid than real estate and the likes.

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

Yes. Cash is "King" during these uncertain times. Especially when both the crypto and stock market are going all the way down the drain. We must focus on increasing our income while the recession lasts. Investing a little on BTC and Gold wouldn't hurt either.

I know most people will panic because they're living paycheck to paycheck. But "where there's a will, there's a way". It takes time and discipline to keep yourself afloat even during economic uncertainty. Hopefully, the nightmare will be all over soon as fear from tariffs go away. Let's see if Trump's strategy will play out in the long run.

[fuguebtc]

same here, holding significant amount of cash as well now wondering if i should better reallocate my cash to asset of hedge against inflation.

I think rising inflation in the future is pretty obvious, there's reason why there has been massive flow of capital to gold that causes the price to go so high because the riches want to preserve their wealth making the market deviates.

but I guess i'll just go with bitcoin, in a time of high inflation, BTC has been doing pretty well so far, people who bought it 2 years ago already getting more than 200% profit which is pretty great considering it's more liquid than real estate and the likes.

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

Im not sure what to use against inflation other than gold, which seems to be working fine in this environment. BTC is definitely not a risk-off asset for now, but a liquidity sponge. I think BTC will go to 100k+ easily on the next round of QE+low interest rates, but not in this situation, so for inflation hedges im looking at gold ETFs (even tho I don't hold any) and very low duration high quality bonds, other than that is just cash deposits.

Covid era is QE+ZIRP, we have no ZIRP so far. Covid was also a black swan so all the risk was priced in very fast, this looks like a slower unwinding of positions that will take a while.

Many people will disagree, but I agree with you. In the current situation, no asset can keep us safe except gold.
If the tariff war escalates and leads to rising inflation, the Fed will maintain high interest rates and continue quantitative tightening (QT) instead of QE. Bitcoin even entered the bear season earlier than expected and will continue to be dumped, let alone be able to protect us from Trump's tariff war.

In times of economic uncertainty, speculative assets like bitcoin/stocks are not a wise choice. Gold and bonds will be the top choices, which is why gold demand and gold prices have been increasing continuously over the past two months.

[AVE5]

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

This is true. There is a relation between the devaluation of the dollar and the price of bitcoin. There are many other people like you who would convert whatever fiat they have to bitcoin if they notice inflation rising, and that is why during inflation, the bitcoin price mostly rises.

I guess the point to have confidence that bitcoin bull run is not over yet and sure that we'd see more breakout of further Aths when the inflation finally hits the globe and when everyone holding fiats and financing on the stock will be panicked that the centralized economy is only growing huge but values less in exchange market.
Thereby realizing that only bitcoin can safe their funds and gives them a hedge to the store of values. Surely if this work out as thought, we'll have more investors in the bitcoin market and demands will be competitive surging to a new dimension of bitcoin appreciation.

[kotajikikox]

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” Bessent said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on March 6. “The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”

To me it's clear that the US administration is already accepting that their policies are going to raise inflation to some extent. Perhaps they didn't expect nations to fight back at such degree and thought that they would simply comply,

That would be incredibly stupid for them to think that way. They should have known that countries are going to push back against their decisions because they want to and because they are capable of it. USA really just wanted to push ahead no matter what.

but both the EU and Canada are working on tariffs as well as China and nobody wants to settle down,

Korea, Japan and China have all agreed to work together against the US. This is big since we know that those three nations have a long history of fighting against one another but now they have found a bigger opponent which is the US,

[Swordsoffreedom]

sometime I think it will help bitcoin rally too, like when m2 supply were going high in covid era and money literally being used to pump BTC.

This is true. There is a relation between the devaluation of the dollar and the price of bitcoin. There are many other people like you who would convert whatever fiat they have to bitcoin if they notice inflation rising, and that is why during inflation, the bitcoin price mostly rises.

This is what the saying "hedge against inflation" means. Most people mistake it to mean inflation won't affect you at all. There is no way inflation won't affect you because the cost of things you buy will increase no matter how you do, but if you save your money in bitcoin it won't be affected.

Is that  true? Don't  you find it weird? Gold is also considered the best hedge against inflation and its price has hit record highs since the tariff war began. But why has the price of bitcoin been falling steadily for the past two months since hitting $109k the month Trump officially became president? This makes me wonder if bitcoin is really an effective inflation hedge. Are people buying it more than selling it? If  people see it as a hedge against inflation and are converting fiat to bitcoin, its price will rise with gold, not fall with  stocks.