Tariff Policy

[DanWalker]

Note that it is the Trump spirit of things that is doing this, not necessarily Trump. Trump, himself, will come to an end. The Trump spirit will not.

Even if a Democrat becomes president, things will never go back to the former order because Trump has altered the world economic order. European Union and other economic allies have started seeking for alternatives to US partnerships. Many former US trade partners might be forced to mend relationship with China.

The USs has a GDP of $30 trillion, of which consumer spending accounts for 71% of the national GDP, or $18 trillion. It can be seen that this is the largest import and consumption market in the world, no country can replace them when it comes to the consumer market.

After trade war 1.0, China also started looking to diversify its markets and reduce its dependence on the US. They have cooperated with Europe, Russia, India, Australia...but after 4 years, their imported goods into the US are still high, more than 400 billion dollars in 2024. That shows that they still cannot reduce their dependence on the US market, so I doubt other countries like Europe, Canada, Mexico or India...will find better partners than the US.
The sad truth is that the world is still dependent on the US and this is not going away in the near future.

[franky1]

Note that it is the Trump spirit of things that is doing this, not necessarily Trump. Trump, himself, will come to an end. The Trump spirit will not.

Even if a Democrat becomes president, things will never go back to the former order because Trump has altered the world economic order. European Union and other economic allies have started seeking for alternatives to US partnerships. Many former US trade partners might be forced to mend relationship with China.

The USs has a GDP of $30 trillion, of which consumer spending accounts for 71% of the national GDP, or $18 trillion. It can be seen that this is the largest import and consumption market in the world, no country can replace them when it comes to the consumer market.

here is a out of box thought experiment for you

imagine china.. but their GDP was not converted to $ using current forex rate...(manipulated)
instead their real domestic value being ¥134.9084 trillion yuan(as is the real number)

now imagine some forex adjustment happened overnight to bring countries into parity based on min wage
EG us $15 china ¥24

meaning $1:¥1.60 exchange rate was set as new forex rate for equal parity exchange, based on labour(basic minimum standard of living)

nothing else has changed, china still holds the same money domestically, people are still paid the same salaries, retail prices of goods are all the same.. all that has changed is the forex exchange rate to be a fairer measure of standardised labour comparison

the gdp when converted to dollar ends up with china as $84.317trillion

now think to yourself.. is the US only number1 before the thought experiment, due to forex manipulation set by the dollar side to favour the dollar side in regards to international measures..
because when judging GDP based on equal labour fair parity forex.. who then wins

remember GDP means gross domestic product.. not gross dollar product
..
spoiler
of course the numbers can then be flipped back in US favour when taking the 'per capita' amount

china $84.317trillion / 1.441b = $58,512 per capita
US $29.37trillion / 341m = $86,129 per capita

reason i say try the thought experiment. because once the tariff drama settles, trump has been mentioning and hinting at a 'currency manipulation' multiple times so it suggests the next drama would be a great reset of forex rates

[Marvell1]

This might be another smear campaign but I have a strong feeling that someone inside or close to the White House is taking advantage of these inconsistent trade policies to make profit.

Trump exhibited such an attitude when he announced different cryptocurrencies that would make up the US reserved and intentionally or unintentionally skipped Bitcoin. This made the price of the mentioned coins to skyrocket. I am sure some insiders benefitted from this "oversight".

Let's wait and see the outcome of the investigation.

As I said, the nature of politics is greed, they crave both power and money, they will use power to corrupt and use corrupt money to increase power. There is certainly manipulation within the Trump administration through those inconsistent tariffs, but I believe the Democrats can do nothing, except scream.

Trust me, there will be no investigation, the democratic media is just trying to hype things up because investigating or suing a sitting president would be a waste of time. If I remember correctly, the accusations against Trump over the years, from the Capitol Hill riots to storing top secret government records in his home...were all dropped when he became president. So it is pointless to investigate and sue him while he is still president.

[Hispo]

In the short term Trump is just going to inflict a serious damage against the personal economical power of the middle class and the poor in America, because whether the people of the USA like it or not, they are highly dependant of importations and those tariffs are going to be paid by the common people who consume imported goods, which is the majority of the population of the United States.
There will be hundreds of businesses which won't be able to move their manufacturing power to the United States, because they would lose money in the process and their products would not be profitable anymore, so for now, all you got is prices going up and people struggling to meet the end of the month.

That is not making America great, it is just chaos and recklessness.

[BADecker]

In the short term Trump is just going to inflict a serious damage against the personal economical power of the middle class and the poor in America, because whether the people of the USA like it or not, they are highly dependant of importations and those tariffs are going to be paid by the common people who consume imported goods, which is the majority of the population of the United States.
There will be hundreds of businesses which won't be able to move their manufacturing power to the United States, because they would lose money in the process and their products would not be profitable anymore, so for now, all you got is prices going up and people struggling to meet the end of the month.

That is not making America great, it is just chaos and recklessness.

Wrong.

What will happen is that companies will adapt so they can sell their products. This adaptation will be enough until new manufacturing can get off the ground. MAGA wins for all of us.

[PrimeNumber7]

I generally think that tariffs are not a positive thing to implement. Tariffs hinder trade by taxing trade between two countries.

With that being said, many other countries impose tariffs and non-tariff barriers to import trade from the US to their countries. Theft of IP and a mandate that a JV with 51% Chinese ownership are two of the worst non-tariff barriers that I can think of. But other countries are also guilty. Excessive regulation against US companies and government subsidies for domestic industries comes to mind for what many European countries engage in. So the status quo is not really free trade, it is an uneven playing field with many non-tariff trading barriers imposed on the US, and few imposed by the US on other countries.

There is also the issue of national security. In a war, or a time of national emergency, countries will prioritize the defense of their own country ahead of others when it comes to allocating supplies produced by its own domestic industry. This was somewhat highlighted by covid in 2020 especially. So you really want your own domestic industry to exist and have the ability to ramp up production for things you will need in a war.

[Iranus]

In the short term Trump is just going to inflict a serious damage against the personal economical power of the middle class and the poor in America, because whether the people of the USA like it or not, they are highly dependant of importations and those tariffs are going to be paid by the common people who consume imported goods, which is the majority of the population of the United States.
There will be hundreds of businesses which won't be able to move their manufacturing power to the United States, because they would lose money in the process and their products would not be profitable anymore, so for now, all you got is prices going up and people struggling to meet the end of the month.

That is not making America great, it is just chaos and recklessness.

Wrong.

What will happen is that companies will adapt so they can sell their products. This adaptation will be enough until new manufacturing can get off the ground. MAGA wins for all of us.

It would take at least three years and cost about $30 billion to move 10% of manufacturing from China to the US, according to Dan Ives, managing director and research analyst at Wedbush Securities. This shows the enormous challenges to Trump's idea of ​​bringing manufacturing back to the US, so I don't believe that companies will implement Trump's ideas but instead they will look to buy time because Trump will only be president for 4 years.

Furthermore, bringing manufacturing back home not only costs money and time, but also makes their products less competitive because high manufacturing costs in the US make the products more expensive. Top companies like Apple won't like this.

Indeed, Trump's tariff policy will not make America great again and I guess Trump knows it. So the trade war will have to stop at some point, he will never dare to prolong it too long.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/iphone-apple-trump-tariffs-tech-us-china

[franky1]

Furthermore, bringing manufacturing back home not only costs money and time, but also makes their products less competitive because high manufacturing costs in the US make the products more expensive. Top companies like Apple won't like this.

yet again must be mentioned

companies are not moving "full production" to Us this month
this month businesses are leasing warehouse space at freeports/FTZ and putting jut the final assembly equipment in it, shipped from other countries, fitted and calibrated the week it arrives and in the meantime training staff to operate the machines, thus in business getting parts from around the world and final assembly them in the US to be "us made"

so that businesses can remain productive from late april onwards with "us made" produce and then able to have more breathing room to see how these trade deals pan out in the next 90 days whilst they then make long term plans, which they will implement

this is not a situation of forcing people to take high tariff fee foreign retail produce or have to wait years for "us made"
note difference between "made in USA" and "US made"(and other similar labels that are not "made in USA")

to be truly "made in USA" all or virtually all have parts AND final assembly need to be made in USA
where as other similar labelling just escape the tariff

[montaga]

China ordered all Chinese airlines to stop purchases of all aircraft related equipment & parts from all American companies.

[BADecker]

China ordered all Chinese airlines to stop purchases of all aircraft related equipment & parts from all American companies.

If this is true, this stunt will only hurt China in the log run. Why? Because Americans are free, and being free means working for yourself to ensure your own success. Chinese are under a dictatorship, and forced working fails in the long run.

[Rgram]

Note that it is the Trump spirit of things that is doing this, not necessarily Trump. Trump, himself, will come to an end. The Trump spirit will not.

I agree with you..most of his policies haven’t been fully implemented as well but our shared fright in the market following the bill run of btc during his first term in office..
The more traders react to the market, the more the spirit spreads across the board..

[BADecker]

Note that it is the Trump spirit of things that is doing this, not necessarily Trump. Trump, himself, will come to an end. The Trump spirit will not.

I agree with you..most of his policies haven’t been fully implemented as well but our shared fright in the market following the bill run of btc during his first term in office..
The more traders react to the market, the more the spirit spreads across the board..

And there is nothing wrong with the spirit spreading across the board. All that it takes is peaceful negotiations between everybody to include all the ideas that all people have.

At the end-times of WW2, the Germans developed some wonderful things that they would have used in the war if they had time to fully develop them. What if these things had been used for peace and prosperity rather than for war? Some of the German things were inventions that we are barely exceeding today, many years after the war.

The point is that Trump is trying to develop peace for all, so that there can be peaceful prosperity for all. But he has opponents who want to control it all, or destroy it all if they can't take control.

[OgNasty]

China ordered all Chinese airlines to stop purchases of all aircraft related equipment & parts from all American companies.

If this is true, this stunt will only hurt China in the log run. Why? Because Americans are free, and being free means working for yourself to ensure your own success. Chinese are under a dictatorship, and forced working fails in the long run.

I'm not sure about that one.  This was a good move by China.  Boeing has been making a shit product for years now and we were lucky that the Chinese were willing to buy it.  After seeing the mess that is Boeing over the last few years, I'm surprised China didn't make this move out of common sense.  I'd love to see Boeing make the best planes in the world, but they seem more concerned with DEI madness and murdering their own whistleblowers.  Airbus clearly has a better product.  Maybe this is part of why the United States went with Boeing over Lockheed Martin for their next generation warplane.  Gotta keep Boeing in business.

[BADecker]

China ordered all Chinese airlines to stop purchases of all aircraft related equipment & parts from all American companies.

If this is true, this stunt will only hurt China in the log run. Why? Because Americans are free, and being free means working for yourself to ensure your own success. Chinese are under a dictatorship, and forced working fails in the long run.

I'm not sure about that one.  This was a good move by China.  Boeing has been making a shit product for years now and we were lucky that the Chinese were willing to buy it.  After seeing the mess that is Boeing over the last few years, I'm surprised China didn't make this move out of common sense.  I'd love to see Boeing make the best planes in the world, but they seem more concerned with DEI madness and murdering their own whistleblowers.  Airbus clearly has a better product.  Maybe this is part of why the United States went with Boeing over Lockheed Martin for their next generation warplane.  Gotta keep Boeing in business.

When you look at the failures Boeing has had lately - their 737, and their space program - China is only helping us get rid of a has-been company that we might be better off without. They probably got the bid because of insiders giving it to them.

Tariff results in China? Many people think China is an old country that has lasted a long time. If you look at Chinese history, you will see that China has been a country of different countries. There are several languages spoken there, even today. They are not united. It's only since the time of Mao Zedong that they have had some semblance of unity, and today's China government is simply living off that old strength.


China Starts Losing It Over Trump Tariffs — Communist Apparatchik Warns Those ‘American Peasants Will Suffer’


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/china-starts-losing-it-trump-tariffs-communist-apparatchik/
China is starting to feel the heat over President Trump's tariffs.

Xia Baolong, a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official who governs the regions of Hong Kong and Macao, lashed out at Trump over his decision to impose 145 percent levy on goods from the region.

"The US isn't after our tariffs but our very survival," Xia said in a televised speech.

"The US has repeatedly contained and suppressed Hong Kong … and this will eventually backfire on itself."

"Let those peasants in the United States suffer in front of the 5,000 years of Chinese civilization," he continued.

"The Chinese people do not cause trouble, nor are they afraid of trouble.

"Pressure, threats and blackmail are not the right way to deal with China," he added.

While the remarks did not come from Xi Jinping himself, the tightly controlled nature of the CCP means that Xia would have almost certainly had his approval before launching his tirade.

The comments may have been retaliation for similar remarks made last week by Vice President J.D. Vance in which he defended the Trump administration's policy.

"We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture," Vance said in an interview with Fox News.
...

[Franctoshi]

The whole thing is going a bit out of control because, I guess Donald Trump didn't expect some of this countries to hit back at with their own tarrifs on United States products.

But truth be told, it isn’t bad that other countries tax US heavily whereas the US has little or tax no tax on other countries products, China is dominating the worlds trades and doesn't want to be taxed for their products? Using back doors to ship in goods into the united States through other countries to evade some tax, there should be a fare trade ,that both has to benefit and that's what Donald Trump is talking about.

[BADecker]

^^^ Not really out of control at all. We simply don't understand what the goals are because nobody has told us. However, it's slowly coming into the light.


Bessent's Grand Strategy: Use Tariff Negotiations To Isolate China From The Rest Of The World


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessents-grand-strategy-use-tariff-negotiations-isolate-china-rest-world
Yesterday, president Trump laid out the stakes in the ever-escalating trading war between the US and China, in typical laconic fashion: "We may want countries to choose between us and China" (a topic discussed further here), with the White House adding that "The ball is in China's court. China needs to make a deal with us."

This strategy, of forcing the world into "us (or US) vs them" camps first emerged last week when Trump reduced reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, something we highlighted at the time.

A few days later, this now appears to be the official strategy in the global trade war.

As the WSJ reports, the Trump admin plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.

The idea, as we laid out in not so many words, is to extract commitments from U.S. trading partners to isolate China's economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House. US officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries (the so-called "transshipment" loophole), prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China's cheap industrial goods into their economies.

Those measures are meant to put a final stake in China's already sinking economy (which somewhat ironically got a boost in the first quarter as its export partners front-loaded purchased goods ahead of the tariff price surge which is already in place and which will put a deep freeze on China's manufacturing empire) and force Beijing to the negotiating table with less leverage ahead of potential talks between Trump and President Xi Jinping. The exact demands could vary widely by nation, given their degree of involvement with the Chinese economy.

US officials have already presented the idea in early talks with some countries according to WSJ sources, who added that Trump himself hinted at the strategy on Tuesday, telling the Spanish-language program "Fox Noticias" he would consider making countries choose between the US and China in response to a question about Panama deciding not to renew its role in the Belt and Road Initiative, China's global infrastructure program for developing nations.

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zerohedge
@zerohedge
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China has three options:

1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart
...