Trumpophobic Chinese Economy

[Jamala]

It all started with a mixed market dynamics, the US stock market plummeting to new lows, and GDP falling by 0.9% in the early days of the Trump tariff war resulting from about 16% import reduction. This excludes the 10% baseline Canada and Mexico tariffs. Many trade models could not determine the full effect of the tariffs as retaliatory actions swept in. Huge tariffs temporarily limited the accessibility of the US market to external investors and stunted domestic growth. Investors trembled as the tariffs effects took time to revert the downward trend. China responded with counter measures which has not stopped the downward trend of its GDP nor given then a relief. So, if Trump applies further measures, the US economy will be great again.

[coupable]

It all started with a mixed market dynamics, the US stock market plummeting to new lows, and GDP falling by 0.9% in the early days of the Trump tariff war resulting from about 16% import reduction. This excludes the 10% baseline Canada and Mexico tariffs. Many trade models could not determine the full effect of the tariffs as retaliatory actions swept in. Huge tariffs temporarily limited the accessibility of the US market to external investors and stunted domestic growth. Investors trembled as the tariffs effects took time to revert the downward trend. China responded with counter measures which has not stopped the downward trend of its GDP nor given then a relief. So, if Trump applies further measures, the US economy will be great again.

I believe this is the kind of strategy that Trump supporters believe it works. The global economy is an interconnected fabric of intertwined economies, and if one collapses, a domino effect is inevitable. This is similar to the human body: when one organ becomes ill, the entire body is affected, becoming afflicted with fever and disease. The United States itself is currently the most affected by US sanctions, and don't expect this to improve in the long term. If access to US markets continues to be difficult, partners will seek and find new markets, while there is a strong possibility that the US will fail to find new partners, especially given the presence of a strong competitor like China.

[pooya87]

One of the benefits of US flip flopping like this is that it first helps countries to wake up and face the reality of US regime; and second will help them prepare which will put US in a disadvantage on its next flip flop.

US regime did two things wrong.
1. They waged war against the entire world not just China.
For example if you check the list of tariffs Trump released on the first day, it included majority of the countries. This war hurt everyone, but by doing that it also told everyone how aggressive US regime is and how distancing yourself from US is beneficial. Distancing means decoupling from US economy as much as possible, dedollarising, etc.

2. They backed off of their aggression
After showing their true nature, they slightly backed off by reducing tariffs a little, etc. That means the instability US regime caused is diminishing but it is going to be a great opportunity for that decoupling I already mentioned. It an happen easier in a less volatile and aggressive world.

Now the only question left is which countries succeed in decoupling from US more than others?

[Joy_learns_crypto]

The huge tariff imposed by Donald trump on any country after the country and American too. There was an incident where a state put out that the tariff has caused them to start paying higher taxes. Let’s not go into what the Tariff has done to America’s relationship with other countries.
But there are those who gained from all this. Trump wasn’t too strict with the tariff policy, he sometimes threatened toward imposing tariff which cause the market to go down probably smart people capitalized on it, then when he backs off the tariff the market goes upward again.

I actually can’t fully understand Donald trump but with statistics portraying that he has more wealthy people in cabinet than any other president, I believe that there may be something fishy going on and the real question is that is he working for America or working for the financial market?

[Stella Mese]

I believe this is the kind of strategy that Trump supporters believe it works. The global economy is an interconnected fabric of intertwined economies, and if one collapses, a domino effect is inevitable. This is similar to the human body: when one organ becomes ill, the entire body is affected, becoming afflicted with fever and disease. The United States itself is currently the most affected by US sanctions, and don't expect this to improve in the long term. If access to US markets continues to be difficult, partners will seek and find new markets, while there is a strong possibility that the US will fail to find new partners, especially given the presence of a strong competitor like China.

in this case Trump supporters will be very confident in the decision taken to keep the US economy in power, and that makes them make decisions without seeing the many shortcomings that will occur among themselves, and China is a strong competitor who takes immediate action, of course that is an obstacle for the US which they think will soften, with high tariffs, of course the global economic sector becomes sluggish.

[el kaka22]

After seeing what even the "idea" of Tariffs can do to USA finance, people still have hopes that it will do great for USA? China obviously would rather work with other nations and sell to them for cheap pennies and ruin their economy before backing down. It means, yes China would go down, but USA would go down with it, while other nations (mostly western) would do fine.

Trump is not on the right path, and what he is doing is terrible and the market has already shown this. So much so that, he himself realized it was a mistake and halted the increased tariff numbers, so even when Trump realizes he made a mistake, his voters are out there defending his mistake that he himself owned up to? Weird take but if you want to do it, you may go for it.

[buwaytress]

So much so that, he himself realized it was a mistake and halted the increased tariff numbers, so even when Trump realizes he made a mistake, his voters are out there defending his mistake that he himself owned up to? Weird take but if you want to do it, you may go for it.

A cynical view suggests that he knew what he was doing. Didn't many of his friends buy in on all kinds of stocks dirt cheap? He has presidents who set precedent with tariffs before and the markets reacted just as history dictated. Everything on its way back up now he "retracted". I suppose if one could take advantage of the system, one would.

P.S. We're all afraid of China... we just know we're not here to see that future.

[Jewan420]

The US tariff policy is like hitting itself in the foot. I am often shocked by Trump's aggression against the world.

By imposing additional tariffs on the entire world, they have declared an economic war on the world and in the end they are the ones who are in trouble. Most of the countries of the world are starting to reduce their dependence on the US and are trying to establish economic relations with alternative countries. After Trump's decision, they started to suffer economically, which later they temporarily suspended the tariffs imposed on other countries except China. But the tariffs imposed on the economic rival China remained in place. China also declared an economic war against them. Which is still ongoing.
If this continues, it may not be long before we see a China-based economy. Countries are trying to become two-way from the US.

[coupable]

I believe this is the kind of strategy that Trump supporters believe it works. The global economy is an interconnected fabric of intertwined economies, and if one collapses, a domino effect is inevitable. This is similar to the human body: when one organ becomes ill, the entire body is affected, becoming afflicted with fever and disease. The United States itself is currently the most affected by US sanctions, and don't expect this to improve in the long term. If access to US markets continues to be difficult, partners will seek and find new markets, while there is a strong possibility that the US will fail to find new partners, especially given the presence of a strong competitor like China.

in this case Trump supporters will be very confident in the decision taken to keep the US economy in power, and that makes them make decisions without seeing the many shortcomings that will occur among themselves, and China is a strong competitor who takes immediate action, of course that is an obstacle for the US which they think will soften, with high tariffs, of course the global economic sector becomes sluggish.

What Trump is doing is like playing with fire: either he survives and everyone else gets burned, or they all get burned. Trump never talks about his country losing global partners entrusted with providing the American economy with what it needs to achieve growth. All we see today is Trump making gains through political blackmail, but these gains are limited and incapable of achieving sustainable progress. His success in establishing good relations with Russia has not yielded any economic gains other than halting the war expenditures it was sending to Ukraine, and even the precious metals agreement with Ukraine was unsuccessful, literally failing to achieve any ambitious goal. Likewise, his rapprochement with the oil-rich Gulf states will yield good gains in terms of investments, but this cannot compensate for the losses caused by the tariff war on the American economy, which has lost its two most important economic partners, Canada and Mexico.

[Mate2237]

You have to be careful with the way that you praise trump because I don't see anything good that this so called tariffs war he has started has brought to the American economy truth be told this war is not favourable to any one not even the Americans because the effects of the war is felt by the American economy too, anyone one praising trump could be his supporter but they should remove sentiment and face the main issue on the ground



The world has gone past that stage where America and her Allie's will hold the rest of the world to ransom and make them do what ever that they want this is what trump is trying to enforce and it's not going to work

[peter0425]

If access to US markets continues to be difficult, partners will seek and find new markets, while there is a strong possibility that the US will fail to find new partners, especially given the presence of a strong competitor like China.

Do not get it wrong, US is not that easily replaceable. They are a profitable market that a lot of companies would wish to export to. But if the costs are too damaging they would have no choice but to find different markets or different suppliers. I believe that this could be the perfect opportunity for Asian countries. We have a lot of resources but importantly, the costs would be far cheaper than the US. So, you can imagine why asian countries would be attractive to manufacture at or get supplies from.

[pooya87]

Likewise, his rapprochement with the oil-rich Gulf states will yield good gains in terms of investments,

I don't think so.

~8 years ago Trump did the same exact thing. He traveled to the Arabian peninsula to meet with the Arab dictators that are renting the land on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf.
The mainstream media aka the mouthpieces advertised it largely, talking about how he milked the Arab dictators (aka cashcows as Trump loves to refer to them) for trillions of dollars.
But in reality a tiny fraction of it was met.

The situation this time is even worse.
Trump planned this travel for 100 days trying to get some "wins" then enter Arabia as a winner and milk these dictators better. But instead he only experienced failures and entered Arabia defeated. As a failure in everything.
- No 24-hour peace in Ukraine
- No peace in Gaza
- Isolated USA
- No annexation of Canada
- No annexation of Greenland
- No annexation of Panama and its canal
- Defeated in the proxy war against Pakistan (as PAF dominated the Western air technology)
- Defeated in the direct war against Yemen
- Failed in the tariff war against China
- and a lot more

On the other hand, the Arab dictators' economic situation is worse than ~8 years ago. They are facing an economic crisis and they no longer have the same amount of money to invest in the US. What they had is already in the US and they've wasted a lot of it in the past years in US regime's proxy war against Yemen! Their budgets are also set with a higher oil price ($80-$90) so they'll face a massive deficit because of that as well (oil is currently $60). That is on top of other crisis they are facing (eg. the employment crisis in Saudi usurped Arabia).

The only conclusion we can make is that like last time, the Arab dictators who are renting the land around the Persian Gulf are going to promise Trump trillion but fulfill an even smaller percentage compared to last time both because they no longer trust US and because they have even less money compared to last time...

[Jamala]

Dedollarizing is such a difficult act to carry out because of the economic alliances the US have with many developed countries especially those under its NATO protection.Many of those NATO countries are anti-Trump but are stock to the tariff war because of the risk of being at loggerheads with the US. The US isn't new in this antics. It has worked previously in multiple occasions, so why change a winning strategy? The Trump policy is yielding possible effects on the US economy in the check the stock market.

One of the benefits of US flip flopping like this is that it first helps countries to wake up and face the reality of US regime; and second will help them prepare which will put US in a disadvantage on its next flip flop.

US regime did two things wrong.
1. They waged war against the entire world not just China.
For example if you check the list of tariffs Trump released on the first day, it included majority of the countries. This war hurt everyone, but by doing that it also told everyone how aggressive US regime is and how distancing yourself from US is beneficial. Distancing means decoupling from US economy as much as possible, dedollarising, etc.

2. They backed off of their aggression
After showing their true nature, they slightly backed off by reducing tariffs a little, etc. That means the instability US regime caused is diminishing but it is going to be a great opportunity for that decoupling I already mentioned. It an happen easier in a less volatile and aggressive world.

Now the only question left is which countries succeed in decoupling from US more than others?

[Cossyblack]

Likewise, his rapprochement with the oil-rich Gulf states will yield good gains in terms of investments,

I don't think so.

~8 years ago Trump did the same exact thing. He traveled to the Arabian peninsula to meet with the Arab dictators that are renting the land on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf.
The mainstream media aka the mouthpieces advertised it largely, talking about how he milked the Arab dictators (aka cashcows as Trump loves to refer to them) for trillions of dollars.
But in reality a tiny fraction of it was met.

The situation this time is even worse.
Trump planned this travel for 100 days trying to get some "wins" then enter Arabia as a winner and milk these dictators better. But instead he only experienced failures and entered Arabia defeated. As a failure in everything.
- No 24-hour peace in Ukraine
- No peace in Gaza
- Isolated USA
- No annexation of Canada
- No annexation of Greenland
- No annexation of Panama and its canal
- Defeated in the proxy war against Pakistan (as PAF dominated the Western air technology)
- Defeated in the direct war against Yemen
- Failed in the tariff war against China
- and a lot more

On the other hand, the Arab dictators' economic situation is worse than ~8 years ago. They are facing an economic crisis and they no longer have the same amount of money to invest in the US. What they had is already in the US and they've wasted a lot of it in the past years in US regime's proxy war against Yemen! Their budgets are also set with a higher oil price ($80-$90) so they'll face a massive deficit because of that as well (oil is currently $60). That is on top of other crisis they are facing (eg. the employment crisis in Saudi usurped Arabia).

The only conclusion we can make is that like last time, the Arab dictators who are renting the land around the Persian Gulf are going to promise Trump trillion but fulfill an even smaller percentage compared to last time both because they no longer trust US and because they have even less money compared to last time...

I don't think the US have any intentions of restoring peace in Gaza, they are already in support of the Genocide going on in the land. I watch in the television how Israeli terrorist shot directly at two very little kids to death. I felt devastated after watching those kids murder in cold blood for nothing. I hated the US and the Israeli led terrorists more and more for the atrocities and lives they continue to destroy. The US wants Israel to occupy Gaza and that's what they aiming at but resistance from Palestinians in defending their lands is overwhelming.

The US have been known for their failures in restoring peace in hostile countries. They failed in Iraq, killed a lot of innocent people in a desperate attempt to restore peace. The same goes for Syria and Afghanistan, thousands of innocent civilians got murdered in the hands that pledges  to protect them,civilians were bombed by the US on their homes, worship gathering and marriage ceremonies intentionally in Iraq,Syria and Afghanistan with an excuse that they mistook them for terrorists. The world are beginning to see them for what they are,Wolf in sheep clothing and it's just a matter of time when  nations and allies will turn against them. Today Ukraine learnt a hard lessons,never to trust the US, as they're only interested in milking what's is left of the country resources and not restoring peace.

[coupable]

Likewise, his rapprochement with the oil-rich Gulf states will yield good gains in terms of investments,

I don't think so.

...

The only conclusion we can make is that like last time, the Arab dictators who are renting the land around the Persian Gulf are going to promise Trump trillion but fulfill an even smaller percentage compared to last time both because they no longer trust US and because they have even less money compared to last time...

I agree with all your conclusions because it's clear that Trump's policies are failing all over the world, and he doesn't seem likely to achieve anything except what will exacerbate the crisis for the United States. However, I can see what's happening now from a slightly different perspective:

The United States no longer has any allies, having lost confidence due to Trump's expansionist ambitions, including its classic friends in Europe. Almost all of its friends remain are the Gulf Arab princes, who aren't shy about throwing money around, even if it doesn't directly benefit them. Trump would be happy to achieve any simple achievement with these pimps, even if it comes in the form of promises. A $400 million luxury jet from Qatar and $100 billion in investment promises from Saudi Arabia seem reassuring to the American public and portray Trump as achieving successes, but in the end, no one asks much.

On the other hand, the Gulf Arab princes still need Mama America to provide them with protection against their enemies, even if they know it can no longer even defend itself. America represents the neighborhood bully who bullies others, then entices the wealthy to pay him to protect them when they wrong someone. These princes have no value without an external force to protect their authority, otherwise they wouldn't last a single day in power. Here I mean the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. So they boast about supporting Uncle Sam to tell the world and their opponents at home as well: Look who our friend is and don't even think about undermining our authority. Trump benefits from this role and doesn't hesitate to tell the public that he wants something in return.

[tygeade]

I don't think the US have any intentions of restoring peace in Gaza, they are already in support of the Genocide going on in the land. I watch in the television how Israeli terrorist shot directly at two very little kids to death. I felt devastated after watching those kids murder in cold blood for nothing. I hated the US and the Israeli led terrorists more and more for the atrocities and lives they continue to destroy. The US wants Israel to occupy Gaza and that's what they aiming at but resistance from Palestinians in defending their lands is overwhelming.

The US have been known for their failures in restoring peace in hostile countries. They failed in Iraq, killed a lot of innocent people in a desperate attempt to restore peace. The same goes for Syria and Afghanistan, thousands of innocent civilians got murdered in the hands that pledges  to protect them,civilians were bombed by the US on their homes, worship gathering and marriage ceremonies intentionally in Iraq,Syria and Afghanistan with an excuse that they mistook them for terrorists. The world are beginning to see them for what they are,Wolf in sheep clothing and it's just a matter of time when  nations and allies will turn against them. Today Ukraine learnt a hard lessons,never to trust the US, as they're only interested in milking what's is left of the country resources and not restoring peace.

To be fair, they are after "restoring" as in "let our companies make money from it" type of way. A nation, right near the sea, with Israel partners right there, liberal mindset would say that they could make that nation so much better, for their own profit. Nobody says they "care" about Palestinians, but if they can build a touristic location, hotels, casinos, sea to swim, pools, gambling, shows, shopping centres, then yeah, they can profit so much from it and in 50 years, that place could be a new Las Vegas.

Palestinians would be fine with it, because they would earn so much, Americans can get it for free, so they would profit, and Israel would be fine, because nobody will be attacking them anymore. When you combine it all that way, it is not peace people would get, it's money, and money brings peace.

[Sticky Bomb]

So, if Trump applies further measures, the US economy will be great again.

On the contrary, If Trump applies further measures, still in the same tariff hike direction, the affected countries may form a coalition against the US and it would affect them very much negatively. China is taking the lead and have had various trade agreements with other countries including Vietnam, went as far as strengthening trilateral trade agreements with Japan and North Korea. United states are not the only smart people, gone are the days economies largely depended on them for survival, so if Trump continues playing god, it might look very ugly for the US when other nations have come together and uniformly neglected the US markets.

[WillyAp]

The strategy works great for traders.
Didn't the commander in Chief said: Buy the dip?
That is a trader's approach, the meme coins all this is trader's logic.