Bitcoin Trading Strategy 60%+ win rate

[DannyKhalifa]

Good morning everyone.
My name is Danny and I have been trading for the past 9 years, the journey was a lot of ups and downs until the last 2 years that I finally found a working strategy and I promised myself that if I ever trade, I will trade only when this strategy shows an opportunity because the win rate is higher than 60%, I would say it is more like around 70-75% win rate which is very good for taking a trade with a proper risk management.

I share this because I wish everyone to make money and live the life they want and hopefully you can implement this strategy into your trading journey.

TIP: Do not just trade this strategy right away, go ahead and test it with a DEMO account and check the history, it will give you a good idea on how it works and maybe you can find ways to adjust it for the best entry and exit. But the idea is not to be perfect, but to make money.


The strategy is the following:

Indicators used: Exponential moving average 5 / 21 / 55. The colors I use are, red, yellow and green.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/82dwVv2V/ - In the last week, we had 2 trades that this strategy was suggesting and both of them played out.

Basically when the price is in an uptrend and you see 5 EMA crossing below 21 EMA (at least on a 4h chart, because the lower the timeframe the lower the chance of it working out obviously) then it most likely will find support at the 55 EMA.
As you can see in the chart above that I posted, in the last week, the red ema(5) crossed 2 times below yellow ema(21) and both of the times bounced from the green ema(55).

In downtrend markets, you will be looking for the inverse, you are looking for the 5 EMA to cross above 21 EMA and that's when the price will most likely find resistance already at the 55 EMA.

Usually you do not get huge moves, unless it happens on a weekly or monthly time frame, but you do not need huge moves to make money, you need to be consistent and if you are leverage trading, you can already scale it into good amounts of profits with just 2-3% gains in the price action.

This strategy I tested mostly only in Bitcoin, but I can see it working also on other assets, but I just never traded with it in other assets and I do not know the win rate and the average gains, in bitcoin the average gains on the 4H and daily timeframe is just around 2.3%.

I think this is explained here well enough for those who have some experience in trading, however if anyone has any questions, feel free to ask. I will try to share as much as I can in regards to this strategy.


NOTE: I do not endorse anyone to trade with real money! Go demo trading and prove yourself that you know the drill, you know when to trade and when to stay away from the charts because this will keep you trading in the long term without getting liquidated over and over again by trying to catch every move.

[Oshosondy]

Good strategy but it is still good to tell people to use small amount of money because trading is very risky and can lead to significant loss of money.

I see some coins like bitcoin, and less volatile litecoin and some other to be very easy to trade if the trader is patient. The coins can increase, reduce a bit and later increase which traders that are patient can use to make money.

[betswift]

Good strategy but it is still good to tell people to use small amount of money because trading is very risky and can lead to significant loss of money.

I see some coins like bitcoin, and less volatile litecoin and some other to be very easy to trade if the trader is patient. The coins can increase, reduce a bit and later increase which traders that are patient can use to make money.

Risk management is the core of any strat. It's essential to remember about it whenever you are on the market, I definitely agree with you.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin Trading Strategy 60%+ win rate

If you're in a trading discussion with someone and he/she claims of such things like it's an absolute winner, then it's probably time to turn around and leave the conversation.

I'm not trying to offend you, OP. But like you posted - Don't Trust, Verify.

[BitMaxz]

Using EMA it always work on uptrend or down trend since you talk about 55 EMA or even just 50 period should also works they always respected that area and then after filling up the supply zone the market will retest 55 and there's a possibilty it could break 50 or 55 EMA to test out 100 period or 200 period if respected it will bounce again just like what happen today with BTC. It respect the 55 EMA.

I see you want to tell us to entry on 55EMA and expect for 1:2 risk reward ratio.
However, whats your confirmation here? Is your confirmation is if 5 EMA cross below or above 21EMA it considered it will bounce to 55EMA?
Without a confirmation it is considered risky.

[DannyKhalifa]

Good strategy but it is still good to tell people to use small amount of money because trading is very risky and can lead to significant loss of money.

I see some coins like bitcoin, and less volatile litecoin and some other to be very easy to trade if the trader is patient. The coins can increase, reduce a bit and later increase which traders that are patient can use to make money.

In fact the note is just below the post, to trade with only demo money, until you understand how it works and you find value innit.
The idea is not to make anyone go bet with it, but to consider adding to their strategy if they are very experienced in trading crypto currencies.

Because that is why I posted exactly about the strategy, everyone can check the history with the EMA's + I cannot explain every rule in trading in 1 post, I don't even want to. Just want to share something I make money with and it always allows a proper risk management for every trade with most of them ending in profits.

To explain a lot of rules about trading, would take weeks for me to write..
That's exactly why I endorse trading demo only, until you see, it has value.

Don't judge, you did not tried but accuse.
Verifying the chart will take 2-3 hours and you can count how many times this strategy played out.
Of course it's not 100% because there's nothing like 100%.
But has a very high chance of playing out and gives an idea where prices are heading in Bitcoin only.

Hopefully everyone understands from the right side, I am trading full time, I know how it is and I don't want people to waste money but to find a strategy that works, use it until it won't, because if it worked most of the times for the past 10+ years, the chance of it working in the future is high, or if you have anything better, this strategy can still help giving a view from another angle.

[DannyKhalifa]

Using EMA it always work on uptrend or down trend since you talk about 55 EMA or even just 50 period should also works they always respected that area and then after filling up the supply zone the market will retest 55 and there's a possibilty it could break 50 or 55 EMA to test out 100 period or 200 period if respected it will bounce again just like what happen today with BTC. It respect the 55 EMA.

I see you want to tell us to entry on 55EMA and expect for 1:2 risk reward ratio.
However, whats your confirmation here? Is your confirmation is if 5 EMA cross below or above 21EMA it considered it will bounce to 55EMA?
Without a confirmation it is considered risky.

Not really, basically, in an uptrend whenever the 5 EMA crosses below the 21, you can expect a touch again into the 5EMA or a little bit higher to enter a short position, because most of the times there is a local high when those moving averages cross happen. And you target down into the 55EMA.
In downtrend, whenever 5EMA crosses above the 21, it might retest the 5 agaiin to the downside and should go for the 55EMA which in a downtrend, is always higher than the price action.

I will try to share more examples when I will have more time on my hands, so people can have a better idea, because the thread I made is very sophisticated and it is very exact, understandable that it's hard to comprehend trading when it comes to chat/messages, it's always very tough to explain a strategy, because there's a lot to explain.

I tried my best and I always endorse to trade demo and check the charts history based on this strategy once you understood, and see how many times it plays out.

That will give you a better idea whether it's something you can add to your trading journey.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin Trading Strategy 60%+ win rate

If you're in a trading discussion with someone and he/she claims of such things like it's an absolute winner, then it's probably time to turn around and leave the conversation.

I'm not trying to offend you, OP. But like you posted - Don't Trust, Verify.

You don't need to focus on the name of the thread only, you should focus more on the chart, calculate the statistics and prove me wrong. But what I analyze is the past history of price action and statistics give me always higher chances of winning.

It's in YOUR interest to prove yourself right. Show us YOUR data with enough sample size to prove that indeed your trading strategy actually gives the user a win rate of 60% or more.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What would you say if someone came here, tried your strategy, and actually lost money instead of making money?

[slaman29]

Hey thanks OP for being the rare guy to post some actual trades. I'm the first to point out success needs to be qualified so I appreciate your post.

Personally, I don't trade anymore but I'm still interested and EMA is one of my favorites, because its so dynamic, especially for crypto this is important.

One comment I have tho is that 2 years isn't really enough to test for bear conditions since BTC has basically been on a very long extended bullrun Needs a full cycle but 2 years of data is very good.

Just a question also what is the frequency of your data? When in forex I was only confident in data of over 1000s trades for dailies but for weeklies which fit your EMA I guess I'm happy with 1000+.

[DannyKhalifa]

Bitcoin Trading Strategy 60%+ win rate

If you're in a trading discussion with someone and he/she claims of such things like it's an absolute winner, then it's probably time to turn around and leave the conversation.

I'm not trying to offend you, OP. But like you posted - Don't Trust, Verify.

You don't need to focus on the name of the thread only, you should focus more on the chart, calculate the statistics and prove me wrong. But what I analyze is the past history of price action and statistics give me always higher chances of winning.

It's in YOUR interest to prove yourself right. Show us YOUR data with enough sample size to prove that indeed your trading strategy actually gives the user a win rate of 60% or more.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What would you say if someone came here, tried your strategy, and actually lost money instead of making money?

I am tired of repeating, but read the first thread and read in fully before commenting with nonsense.
No one said for you to trade real money, I said many times to focus on the history and demo trading.
I will ignore such stupid comments from now on, because you're just trying to blame or to make me look wrong meanwhile I am trying to help and sharing what is truly working.
Based on your response, I can say that your trading experience is also on a very early stage, due to the way you comprehend.

[LogitechMouse]

As somebody that's using 20, 50 and 200 EMA to trade, this is pretty much a new for me, and it piqued my interest.

I'm still trading right now, but I already shifted from using EMA's alongside RSI and MACD to focusing on trendlines as long as support and resistances. I already took a note on this strategy that you shared, and I will be using it in the future. Thanks for sharing BTW. I mean there are many traders online that are sharing strategies here and there, but let's take note as well that there's no "perfect" strategy. We can copy OP's strategy, but without proper risk management, and psychology, we might still end up losing our money.

As for OP, maybe sharing some real time trades coming from you where you used that strategy would be a big help. I would appreciate it. We, newbies would appreciate it.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

You said you have discovered this strategy 2 year ago and it works but you only take trade when the signal shows up strong. I want to know if you have been using just this strategy to trade only Bitcoin for that two years or you have use the strategy to trade other coins.
When I started trading years back, it was with indicators but now, I don't even trust indicators anymore because I believe it doesn't work for me again. Although, I have my own strategy that works.

[EarnOnVictor]

First, thank you for bringing this strategy to us, but honestly, I am surprised that you claimed to be trading for 9 years and still using the moving average crossover strategy. This is the beginner's strategy and can be varied with many MA periods depending on how fast or slow you want the crossing to be. Well, good luck with that, but make sure you use a very strict money and risk management with this strategy and pray that the trend of the market last longer when you use it to trade. That's how you can be successful using the strategy.

[DannyKhalifa]

First, thank you for bringing this strategy to us, but honestly, I am surprised that you claimed to be trading for 9 years and still using the moving average crossover strategy. This is the beginner's strategy and can be varied with many MA periods depending on how fast or slow you want the crossing to be. Well, good luck with that, but make sure you use a very strict money and risk management with this strategy and pray that the trend of the market last longer when you use it to trade. That's how you can be successful using the strategy.

I will tell you something that comes from my experience, the EMA's are being used since 1750, trading wasn't even a thing, but EMA's were used to calculate average prices. So EMA's are good for the trend trading, if you follow the trend, they are the best to use and easiest as well. I do not use "new" strategies, I always back test and EMA's prove to still be working flawlessly in all of the major financial markets.
If the day comes and EMA's will be proved wrong, that's when I will be looking for a new strategy, but until it works, I will not change but try to make it better.

I know a lot of people who are into trading for a living and they also use EMA. This is no beginner strategy, it is very complex if you try to do the things right. Yes, many beginners might use it too, but it doesn't mean they use it the right way.

[DannyKhalifa]

You said you have discovered this strategy 2 year ago and it works but you only take trade when the signal shows up strong. I want to know if you have been using just this strategy to trade only Bitcoin for that two years or you have use the strategy to trade other coins.
When I started trading years back, it was with indicators but now, I don't even trust indicators anymore because I believe it doesn't work for me again. Although, I have my own strategy that works.

I did test it only on Bitcoin my friend. I saw it working on other assets sometimes, but I did not study the statistics on those.

On bitcoin, the statistics of this strategy playing out is quite high and if you have an idea on how to manage your risk properly, definitely you'll find value in this strategy.

what strategy do you use? and how came that you cannot trust the indicators? Maybe those indicators are low quality? I have indicators that I use for the past few years and they give me a good hedge.

[DannyKhalifa]

As somebody that's using 20, 50 and 200 EMA to trade, this is pretty much a new for me, and it piqued my interest.

I'm still trading right now, but I already shifted from using EMA's alongside RSI and MACD to focusing on trendlines as long as support and resistances. I already took a note on this strategy that you shared, and I will be using it in the future. Thanks for sharing BTW. I mean there are many traders online that are sharing strategies here and there, but let's take note as well that there's no "perfect" strategy. We can copy OP's strategy, but without proper risk management, and psychology, we might still end up losing our money.

As for OP, maybe sharing some real time trades coming from you where you used that strategy would be a big help. I would appreciate it. We, newbies would appreciate it.

So if you're already using pretty much the same EMA's try adjusting them to my set up, use more fibonacci numbers.
20 is not a fibonacci number / 21 is .
50 is not / 55 is.

Fibonacci numbers are just more likely to be found in nature so we want to bet more on those.
eMA/RSI/MACD is a solid strategy, my advice is not to do any trendlines, but clear horizontal support and resistance, trendlines can just be made in so many ways and you never know which one will react the biggets.

Exactly, there is no perfect strategy! But this is the exact reason why I want you guys to learn it, test it with demo money and only if you see results, that's when you already know what you can do / achieve with it.

+ when you have a proper strategy you can just skip everything and stick to trading when your strategy allows you to go and take a trade, this is very important as you're following a strategy with high win rate + you don't trade every move.

------

Thank you for everyone that is thankful and is appreciating this post.
That's the whole point of it, not to make you gamble or go trading, but to give you an idea how you can work out a better strategy that allows you to be more on the profitable side.
Whoever was attacking, just doesn't realize that he can basically TEST everything without really wasting a dime on it.

[masulum]

You said you have discovered this strategy 2 year ago and it works but you only take trade when the signal shows up strong. I want to know if you have been using just this strategy to trade only Bitcoin for that two years or you have use the strategy to trade other coins.
When I started trading years back, it was with indicators but now, I don't even trust indicators anymore because I believe it doesn't work for me again. Although, I have my own strategy that works.

Indicators are only a signal of potential market trends, whether bearish or bullish. This is just a statistic, nothing more. When talking about statistics, it will require analysis. You must understand very well how trading strategies are carried out using the wrong indicators in predicting trends. This is certainly not the wrong indicator, but maybe our analysis is not precise enough. If you find a suitable strategy, it indicates that the market conditions when you analyze are still stable, so your analysis can be in accordance with the trend.

[DannyKhalifa]

You said you have discovered this strategy 2 year ago and it works but you only take trade when the signal shows up strong. I want to know if you have been using just this strategy to trade only Bitcoin for that two years or you have use the strategy to trade other coins.
When I started trading years back, it was with indicators but now, I don't even trust indicators anymore because I believe it doesn't work for me again. Although, I have my own strategy that works.

Indicators are only a signal of potential market trends, whether bearish or bullish. This is just a statistic, nothing more. When talking about statistics, it will require analysis. You must understand very well how trading strategies are carried out using the wrong indicators in predicting trends. This is certainly not the wrong indicator, but maybe our analysis is not precise enough. If you find a suitable strategy, it indicates that the market conditions when you analyze are still stable, so your analysis can be in accordance with the trend.

Statistics are calculated from an analysis. It's not like I created it, this is how market works, since late 1700.

BWT: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Ei8HpRt/

currently again same strategy showing short on bitcoin, lets see

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin Trading Strategy 60%+ win rate

If you're in a trading discussion with someone and he/she claims of such things like it's an absolute winner, then it's probably time to turn around and leave the conversation.

I'm not trying to offend you, OP. But like you posted - Don't Trust, Verify.

You don't need to focus on the name of the thread only, you should focus more on the chart, calculate the statistics and prove me wrong. But what I analyze is the past history of price action and statistics give me always higher chances of winning.

It's in YOUR interest to prove yourself right. Show us YOUR data with enough sample size to prove that indeed your trading strategy actually gives the user a win rate of 60% or more.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What would you say if someone came here, tried your strategy, and actually lost money instead of making money?

I am tired of repeating, but read the first thread and read in fully before commenting with nonsense.
No one said for you to trade real money, I said many times to focus on the history and demo trading.
I will ignore such stupid comments from now on, because you're just trying to blame or to make me look wrong meanwhile I am trying to help and sharing what is truly working.
Based on your response, I can say that your trading experience is also on a very early stage, due to the way you comprehend.

OK, then are you 100% SURE that "your strategy" will give your listeners/followers a l60%+ win-rate" if they follow "your strategy" very closely over a large sample size?

OP may say that I'm stupid, and that's OK, BUT we have already seen these sorts of claims of "win-rates" before. How many of them actually helped plebs like us?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[masulum]

Statistics are calculated from an analysis. It's not like I created it, this is how market works, since late 1700.

BWT: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Ei8HpRt/

currently again same strategy showing short on bitcoin, lets see

Yes, I know a bit about indicators, but for a stable market, maybe the indicator can be valid. But, for a volatile market, no matter how good your analysis is, if you don't pay attention to the current market, you will experience false indicators. In crypto, doesn't this often happen? Of course, I'm not laughing at your analysis which is 60% successful, meaning you managed to enter and exit well. What I wanted to say before was "is the indicator wrong, or are we wrong in reading the indicator" that's all.