When Experts Get It Wrong: A Lesson from Today’s BTC Pump

[Ethan_Crypto]

I was in a Twitter Space today, listening to a very experienced trader. He confidently told everyone to short Bitcoin and altcoins, predicting that BTC was going to drop into the 90K range and that altcoins would dump hard.

Now, as we approach the end of the day, Bitcoin is pumping  already trading above $96K. At this point, it’s likely that his stop-loss was hit, or worse, he got liquidated.

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

[freedomgo]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

That’s totally normal. Even the so-called experts they’re not gods. They make mistakes too.
Although, they get it right most of the time, but that doesn’t mean they’re always spot on.

Look at those crypto "gurus" calling Bitcoin bullish or bearish... then boom, the complete opposite happens. But people still see them as experts, because at the end of the day, they’re human too. Mistakes happen.

So stop wondering. It’s all part of the game.

[Lida93]

.
It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

There's nothing to wonder about if you understand that there's no perfection from anyone in this prediction market wether expert or no expert. Analysis are bond to fail some times, so never solely rely on any experts but also learn to do your own groundwork that should guide your decisions on your investment.

 You too can be regarded as expert by other people if you put in that effort in studying the market and coming up with your own predictions that had many times worked.

[Alpha Marine]

Because it's a market of speculations. Nobody can be 100% accurate in predicting the outcome of the bitcoin price. It's all a prediction, and a prediction may happen or it may not.  No prediction is certain, no matter who it's coming from.
This is not maths where 1+1=2 at all times, nor is it chemistry where an alkaline substance turns litmus paper blue. This is something else that the outcome requires a lot of other factors to happen. If those factors don't happen, then the predicted outcome may not happen.
It's funnier because sometimes, those factors may happen, yet we still have a different outcome.

The fact that the "experienced trader's" prediction was wrong doesn't mean he's a fraud. It just shows that nobody gets it correctly all the time.

BTW, I think this post should be moved to the "Trading Discussion" board.

[Maslate]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

That’s totally normal. Even the so-called experts they’re not gods. They make mistakes too.
Although, they get it right most of the time, but that doesn’t mean they’re always spot on.

Look at those crypto "gurus" calling Bitcoin bullish or bearish... then boom, the complete opposite happens. But people still see them as experts, because at the end of the day, they’re human too. Mistakes happen.

So stop wondering. It’s all part of the game.

This is a game of speculation, so expect that there’ll be those who will hit it, while others end up committing mistakes. And that’s fine, trading experts do not know everything yet, but they’re much better than those who are just trying to trick the market.

So stop entertaining thoughts like this. All traders may harness their experience and establish their skills and strategies, but they will never come into perfection, remember that.

[Hazink]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

Traders just don't get it right all the time; there is no perfect strategy out there. Even the best trader and the best trading bot make mistakes; they can't be right all the time, which is why, no matter the assurance that you are being given, approach with caution.

A higher percentage of some traders in the online space are making big-time losses behind the scenes, which they don't bring to their viewers because they want to be seen as the best.

[goldkingcoiner]

I was in a Twitter Space today, listening to a very experienced trader. He confidently told everyone to short Bitcoin and altcoins, predicting that BTC was going to drop into the 90K range and that altcoins would dump hard.

Now, as we approach the end of the day, Bitcoin is pumping  already trading above $96K. At this point, it’s likely that his stop-loss was hit, or worse, he got liquidated.

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

Anyone giving financial advice or investment advice might find themselves in hot water, legally speaking. That is a dumb thing to be doing on a social media, so I am guessing this "trader" is not experienced nor professional. That alone would have been a red flag to me and a huge clue to not take this persons advice.

Just out of curiosity, who was this Twitter "trader"?

[peter0425]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

Just like others have said already, we are all speculating here. There's really no precise answer when it comes to trading. No one can learn and review and know the right answer for sure. We are all just guessing and hoping that our analysis was right. If we don't get it right, correct it better luck next time and if we do get it right then congratulations.

Though you have to evaluate the kind of traders you look for as well. There should be traders that despite being around the space for a long time now is not really as good in analyzing markets as other traders might be.

[o48o]

I was in a Twitter Space today, listening to a very experienced trader. He confidently told everyone to short Bitcoin and altcoins, predicting that BTC was going to drop into the 90K range and that altcoins would dump hard.

Now, as we approach the end of the day, Bitcoin is pumping  already trading above $96K. At this point, it’s likely that his stop-loss was hit, or worse, he got liquidated.

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

What are you talking about? Above $96k today? Bitcoin has been over $100k over 10 days now.

And it's not like traders could predict the absolute top anyway, or even be right 51% of the time, because it's not science. It's just predicting price action from past data, which might or might not help with the prediction.
I would also predict that it has a change to do double top with fakeout, and that would mean that there's really no high price level support range that i would be comfortable to put my bets on.

Either that or it will just brake out and moon. Either one suits for me now as i really don't have much skin in that game.

[Findingnemo]

Experts? I would call them scammers if they try to create an image that they're experts and selling you the signals because it's not possible to predict what will happen in the future so it's all their assumptions based on analysis it can go either way. But they're using the power of internet to present themselves as successful and rich to attract subs and make money out of it then they don't know trading or failed doing it and making money in other possible ways.

It's your money so don't let anyone to tell you what to do with it.

[SUPERSAIAN]

No economist, even the best economists, can make a 100% accurate prediction. They speculate and have a high probability of making mistakes.

The best thing for Bitcoin is to buy and hold it. In the past, there were people who gave advice for much more financial investments, now these people are not as comfortable as they used to be due to legal issues, of course there are those who continue such investment advice, it is best not to listen to these people as a clear pinpoint if they knew something they would not share it.

[JiiBs]

Now, as we approach the end of the day, Bitcoin is pumping  already trading above $96K. At this point, it’s likely that his stop-loss was hit, or worse, he got liquidated.

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

When you are not in total control of the market entirely and all you could do is speculate based on how you’ve analyzed persisting trends, candle stick patterns and breaking news, there is always going to be chances that you get some moves wrong. Experience in trading doesn’t make you an expert on market analysis as the market doesn’t follow a single set of constraints to its set up but, it’s a continually changing environment in response to several factors.
That’s why, it’s always best you learn to do your own analysis and approach the market in your own way.

[headingnorth]

Only 2 to 3% of traders are profitable in the long run. Listening to trading advice on Youtube
(or anywhere else) is almost guaranteed to get yourself wrecked.

With trading there is an extreme amount of hard work and stress involved but
the chance of success is very low. It's for stupid people who don't understand simple math,
odds and statistics. None of which are in your favor as a trader.

Everyday you hear about shorts and longs getting liquidated and losing billions of dollars.
Why? Because there seems to be a never ending supply of stupid people in the world.

[AmoreJaz]

No economist, even the best economists, can make a 100% accurate prediction. They speculate and have a high probability of making mistakes.

The best thing for Bitcoin is to buy and hold it. In the past, there were people who gave advice for much more financial investments, now these people are not as comfortable as they used to be due to legal issues, of course there are those who continue such investment advice, it is best not to listen to these people as a clear pinpoint if they knew something they would not share it.

We are all relying from our speculations based on previous history, potential developments, sentiments among users among others. So yes, there are so many variables to consider, hence, we can't get an exact prediction of the market. We can have conservative estimates so as not to get in a tight position or much worse, liquidate our position.
The roller-coaster ride in this market is still one of the features why there are so many investors. They are trying to catch its profitability because of its volatility. However, there's no exact route to do this as we have no idea when it will be low or high. We are merely speculating the next movement, and try to exhaust the profits by our own strategy.

[sunsilk]

That is because no matter how good they are, backed with evidence and charts, they can still get stomped by Bitcoin itself because it has always been volatile and unpredictable.

If they try to read the market and analyze it, they have contigencies on their trades because they know that they wont win at all times.

That is why they also make mistakes but compared to HODLing it, not a lot of effort needed ans we just go by with the waves of market.

[Queentoshi]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Seasoned traders are humans that can be affected by the emotions or other disturbances, disturbances that can affect how they make trading decisions. This is why I pity those who subscribe to signal groups owned by these so-called seasoned traders because they never really consider the times when these people will be emotional imbalance and make them to lose, seasoned traders experience losses because there is no trader with 100 percent rate of winning both in cryptocurrency and anyone in Forex.

[BenCodie]

I was in a Twitter Space today, listening to a very experienced trader. He confidently told everyone to short Bitcoin and altcoins, predicting that BTC was going to drop into the 90K range and that altcoins would dump hard.

Now, as we approach the end of the day, Bitcoin is pumping  already trading above $96K. At this point, it’s likely that his stop-loss was hit, or worse, he got liquidated.

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

Anyone who's pushing their opinion on a social media platform will get it wrong just as much as a spectator who does not publish their opinion. A lot of influencers/posters are just shooting their shot and when they're right, they won't stop posting about it, and when they're wrong, they'll either hide it, delete posts or simply just forget about it.

It's not worth listening to other people, it's worth becoming smart enough to be confident in yourself and learning from your own mistakes along the way.

[Fiatless]

It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

What are the criteria to qualify someone as a seasoned trader? Maybe because of his experience, educational background or what. Some of the predictions these people give are guesses that will either be true or false (after all a faulty clock would be right two times daily). If the prediction is right, they will use it for promotion. They will keep quiet and go into their shells when it goes wrong. I don't depend on anybody's predictions; there are enough resources to do my research.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
It makes me wonder: how do even seasoned traders still get it wrong on intraday moves?

Let me know your thoughts.

Same situation, I fcked earlier, I have this trader on X that I really admire and have been following for some time. He kept telling me to buy Bitcoin when it was below $80k a few months ago. I bought a lot, and he predicted Bitcoin would go above $90,000, and it happened. Around Bitcoin was $94k+ earlier, he said he already took profit, I also did. But even that, he still believes Bitcoin will break above $100,000, which it is now.
While me, my re buy orders are still open below $100,000 HAHAHA.

[jcojci]

That is normal because seasoned traders or pro traders are human. If you are human, you can make a mistake even many times. That is why you need to realize that we don't have to called ourselves as a pro because we can still make a mistake. A pro trader can say many things related to the market but you don't have to believe him but research by yourself.

That will help you to understand what is going on in the market so you can adapt to the current situation and benefit from that. In this situation, you will meet more people telling their predictions. But once again, you don't have to follow or believe them before you analyze the market. You can use their prediction for your additional info for your analysis because sometimes, you can find more clues from them.