Return rate for bitcoin for the next 10 years

[Jawhead999]

Bitcoin ATH:
2013 $1,200
2017 $19,000
2021 $66,000

The gap between the first and second is 15x
The gap between the second and third is 3.5x

If we divide 15/3.5, we get 4.2. Which mean the return of the next cycle is using the last ATH + (last ATH/4.2). This is the catastrophic because it based on logic from past cycles.

Actually the ATH in this year outperform my catastrophic calculation, the ATH in this cycle should be $123,750 ($66,000 + ($66,000 x 3.5/4.2)), but we saw Bitcoin cross to $124K.

The ATH in 2029 would be $150K and ATH in 2033 would be 157K.

But, my high hope think Bitcoin price at least would double in every ATH, so Bitcoin price in 2033 would be around $500K.

tl;dr expect the worst for $157K, expect the best for $500K.

[Darker45]

~snip~

Bitcoin price is too volatile, and it is difficult to accurately calculate its future growth.

You are not wrong in saying that bitcoin has grown more than 100% in the last 1 year, but if you bought bitcoin 4 years ago at $69k (ATH in 2021). The profit you get is just over 80%.

Not to mention, bitcoin will grow slower in the future as its capitalization gets larger. That's why bitcoin could grow x10-x100 before, but now after more than 4 years it can't even grow x2.

Honestly, forget about bitcoin going up 100% per year and giving us 10x returns in the next 10 years, bitcoin is not small anymore.

That's the average annual return I'm talking about. There may be years when you get loss rather than profit, but all in all you could still hit an average of 100% a year. As I've said, I believe Bitcoin could reach at least a million by 2035. Again, that's not wishing upon a star. That's a realistic, albeit hopeful, target. Other timelines are even much more optimistic than that.

I'm aware that Bitcoin's appreciation would be much slower as it grows in value, but "4 years it can't even grow x2"? Just less than a year ago, Bitcoin was less than half of its current price.

What you're saying has probably been said a year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years ago. In the end, they were all surprised, many of whom were even regretting. Even here on a forum primarily dedicated to Bitcoin itself, there are pessimists and doubters like you, me included in my early years. But I've learned my lessons.

[beveryu778]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

If you hold Bitcoin for 10 years, then in these 10 years you will get 2 full four-year circles and Bitcoin will create its new ATH twice. Where we have seen that the previous ATHs and the current ATH are always double or more than the previous one. So if you can hold Bitcoin for 10 years, then the price of Bitcoin will hit ATH around $500k-$800k according to the adoption of Bitcoin. So far, very few people in the whole world use Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin, but in the next ten years, Bitcoin adoption will increase a lot and then its price will skyrocket. So if you can hold Bitcoin for 10 years, then in that case you will definitely get 4-8x return, this is definitely to be expected.

[philipma1957]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

Well this is not  just a mining question but it could be expressed in terms of for miners what will work and what will be great.

price 110k means a block is 3.125 x 110 = 343.75k
so   2028  220k means a block is 1.5625 x 220k = 343.75 K
and 2032  440k means a block is 0.78125 x 440k = 343.75k
and 2036  880k means a block is 0.390625 x 880k = 343.75 K

So merely tolerable for a miner means

coins are 220k in 2028
coins are 440k in 2032
coins are 880k in 2036

those are low end where miners do not fall apart. or case bad

case good for a miner would be.

coins are   330k in 2028
coins are   660k in 2032
coins are 1320k in 2036

what are these returns about 20% a year for the bad case of 880k
and about 25% a year for the good case of 1320k


my guess is we do 15-18% and miners will need to do some shrinkage and we are work than bad case for mining.

so if my guess is correct in 2036 we go to

512k-679k these numbers will mean miners will need to shrink the power foot print or the hash rate growth to do okay.

Sooner or late these miner rate drops need to happen unless price growth exceeds  25% a year for decades to come.