Return rate for bitcoin for the next 10 years

[paxmao]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

[Mpamaegbu]

... from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

You got me laughing there! What the heck did you mean there 😂. Anyway, whatever that's; it was nicely expressed.

What range would you use and why?

If 5 being the 50% to go on the annual ROI, I will give it a 3. I choose 3 because I'm aware that very soon (perhaps after this bull season) there may not be anything as bull run as experienced in the past again. This run may be the last one. I expect a slow and steady growth in price movement and not this parabolic or active volatility we're experiencing now. So, I don't think we will be seeing that much spikes in the near future. Investors shouldn't be expecting that eye spinning type of ROI many experienced a few years ago.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

Actually for a sensitivity model on Bitcoin's 10 year annualized return I think I'd go with a range starting from minus 10% for a rare market meltdown and a bad scenario at 5% for stagnation then a neutral case around 20% while a good scenario hits 45% with strong adoption and finally the "God came to dinner" like you mentioned  .

Well the thing is everyone of them actually occurred during different periods but the 45% is the most common especially for the last couple of years. -10% was way too brief around shortly after Hal and Satoshi's time.

[Catenaccio]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

Natuarally, Bitcoin ROIs have been shrinking over years and market cycles so with most optimistic view, my prediction is only x2 (100% ROI) for each of next two market cycles and I believe in future market cycles, Bitcoin will not increase more than x2 from its price as ATH of a previous market cycle.

You can check history of Bitcoin ROIs in past years.
https://www.casebitcoin.com/

[tread93]

~snip

Actually for a sensitivity model on Bitcoin's 10 year annualized return I think I'd go with a range starting from minus 10% for a rare market meltdown and a bad scenario at 5% for stagnation then a neutral case around 20% while a good scenario hits 45% with strong adoption and finally the "God came to dinner" like you mentioned  .

Well the thing is everyone of them actually occurred during different periods but the 45% is the most common especially for the last couple of years. -10% was way too brief around shortly after Hal and Satoshi's time.

The "God came to dinner" is my favorite part haha. I think long term BTC will be doing great. I am super bullish on God coming to dinner though and the dinner is going to be so on point with rare cut streaks and fine wine of course 😛 all the plateware is made of gold and it was all purchased with bitcoin 😉

[IIrik11]

or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

whatever is no. 4 on your scale above is going to be my pick which i think would be 'good'

but having said because 10 years is a long period, we're going to see huge swings during this time

so at times it is going to hit no. 3 several times and even no. 2 some times

but in the long run it is going give no. 4 return which would be good

[Marvell1]

Natuarally, Bitcoin ROIs have been shrinking over years and market cycles so with most optimistic view, my prediction is only x2 (100% ROI) for each of next two market cycles and I believe in future market cycles, Bitcoin will not increase more than x2 from its price as ATH of a previous market cycle.

You can check history of Bitcoin ROIs in past years.
https://www.casebitcoin.com/

Although bitcoin has increased significantly and brought 8x returns to those brave enough to buy bitcoin at $15k during the 2022 bear season. But if we compare the ATH of $69k of the 2021 bull season and now, bitcoin hasn't even reached x2.

Yes, bitcoin has become big and its ROI is decreasing over time. Expecting x2 or less growth per bull cycle is realistic and I think so too. I don't believe bitcoin can increase x5-x10 as many others expect.


It can be said the era of getting rich quick, making big profits with small capital with Bitcoin is over, we are no longer in the early stages.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I would go by Michael Saylor's model, and whether you like him more or not, his model is reasonable. The first few years the returns were very high and we can't count them. In the last 5 years they have been a little over 50%. He predicts that over the next 20 years bitcoin returns will fall to something like double the S&P 500, which would be 20%, giving an average over that time of 30%.

Based on this I would calculate a bull case of 40% for the next 10 years, a bear case of 20% and an intermediate case of 30%. So it could be as follows:

1: 20%. 2: 25%. 3: 30%. 4: 35%. 5: 40%.

[BitGoba]

Gold has had an average annual return of around 8% over the past 30 years, similar to the S&P 500. The US dollar, considered the best fiat currency among about 180 fiat currencies due to its relatively low inflation, experienced inflation roughly between 8% and 10% during that period. This means that if you saved in gold or the S&P 500, you mostly managed to preserve your purchasing power. There wasn’t a real increase in purchasing power, just maintaining value.

Bitcoin is expected to have much higher CAGR over the next 30 years, around 20 to 40%. I would recommend everyone to explore the power law model to better understand this dynamic.Power law is like a crystal ball, but based on mathematics and physics. It’s a model that helps explain how certain phenomena, like Bitcoin’s growth, follow predictable patterns

[God Of Thunder]

At this point, I would go for number three or four. Even though many people believe Bitcoin has already pumped a lot and will not give you a good return in the future, I still believe Bitcoin investment has a lot of potential. It's still better than Gold and most other traditional investments. Bitcoin will return you at least 5x after ten years, while most traditional investments return you 2x or 3x at max.

Since you asked why, I would say because of its popularity, demand, mass adoption, and, most importantly, limited supply. We already mined most of the Bitcoins that will be in circulation. So, there are not many to add in the future. As long as the demand increase, the price will go up. It's a simple math.

[paxmao]

I would go by Michael Saylor's model, and whether you like him more or not, his model is reasonable. The first few years the returns were very high and we can't count them. In the last 5 years they have been a little over 50%. He predicts that over the next 20 years bitcoin returns will fall to something like double the S&P 500, which would be 20%, giving an average over that time of 30%.

Based on this I would calculate a bull case of 40% for the next 10 years, a bear case of 20% and an intermediate case of 30%. So it could be as follows:

1: 20%. 2: 25%. 3: 30%. 4: 35%. 5: 40%.

Is that yearly returns Don Pedro?

Gold has had an average annual return of around 8% over the past 30 years, similar to the S&P 500. The US dollar, considered the best fiat currency among about 180 fiat currencies due to its relatively low inflation, experienced inflation roughly between 8% and 10% during that period. This means that if you saved in gold or the S&P 500, you mostly managed to preserve your purchasing power. There wasn’t a real increase in purchasing power, just maintaining value.

Bitcoin is expected to have much higher CAGR over the next 30 years, around 20 to 40%. I would recommend everyone to explore the power law model to better understand this dynamic.Power law is like a crystal ball, but based on mathematics and physics. It’s a model that helps explain how certain phenomena, like Bitcoin’s growth, follow predictable patterns

Gold has a near inflation return over the last few millenia. You can buy a kilo of bread with the same gold you needed in roman times in general.

May I ask you for a few links of the power law model?

[EarnOnVictor]

What range would you use and why?

Any asset that can give a yearly return of 20% or above is a very good asset, and I think Bitcoin is such an asset, if bought and not traded. However, one should consider the bearish cycle of Bitcoin whenever they are planning on the yearly return. If care is not taken, when the investor buys at the selling year, then sorry, they might need to wait for at least 2 years to return in profits, depending on the striking price.

Also, the amount one could earn yearly depends on the smartness of the investor. The investors who prioritise buying a significant dip rather than relying on random buying or DCA would make more money in Bitcoin, and their 50% earnings in some years will be almost guaratteed.

[Oshosondy]

All I know is that bitcoin may be able to get to $500 thousand in the next 10 years, but you should know that there will be some tough time and not that the price will just continue to increase but in total, bitcoin should be able to increase above $500 thousand by that time. It will be a good investment.

[paxmao]

What range would you use and why?

Any asset that can give a yearly return of 20% or above is a very good asset, and I think Bitcoin is such an asset, if bought and not traded. However, one should consider the bearish cycle of Bitcoin whenever they are planning on the yearly return. If care is not taken, when the investor buys at the selling year, then sorry, they might need to wait for at least 2 years to return in profits, depending on the striking price.

Also, the amount one could earn yearly depends on the smartness of the investor. The investors who prioritise buying a significant dip rather than relying on random buying or DCA would make more money in Bitcoin, and their 50% earnings in some years will be almost guaratteed.

It is safe to assume that I do not trade. I have limited needs and I have them well covered.

Perhaps at this point I am so wired into that "limited needs" part that I probably would be psychologically unable to overspend or buy luxurious stuff that I do not need. So... let's put it this way:  I am trying to create a fund for super-big emergencies or to pass on to my grand-grand-children.

What range would you use and why?

Any asset that can give a yearly return of 20% or above is a very good asset, and I think Bitcoin is such an asset, if bought and not traded. However, one should consider the bearish cycle of Bitcoin whenever they are planning on the yearly return. If care is not taken, when the investor buys at the selling year, then sorry, they might need to wait for at least 2 years to return in profits, depending on the striking price.

Also, the amount one could earn yearly depends on the smartness of the investor. The investors who prioritise buying a significant dip rather than relying on random buying or DCA would make more money in Bitcoin, and their 50% earnings in some years will be almost guaratteed.

An investable asset giving you 20% per year constantly in the long term is not just "good", it is very difficult to find.

I know people think mostly short term, but At 20% and you will find that it is a x6 in 10 years, but x38 in 20. 10k becomes 380k. If you actually put something like 50k when you are 18 years old, you are near 2 million by the time you are 38 - that is life-changing money. The type of return that gets you financially free before you are 40.

[Odusko]

All I know is that bitcoin may be able to get to $500 thousand in the next 10 years, but you should know that there will be some tough time and not that the price will just continue to increase but in total, bitcoin should be able to increase above $500 thousand by that time. It will be a good investment.

Very true, 10 year's is quite a long time from now that we should aimed at such direction and that will be almost 3-300% ror in BTC price, sure we will have some tough time in between which could even push Bitcoin Bellow the current all time price, but sure the recovery will come and then we see the end at the 10 timeframe.

[₿itcoin]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

Yeah I could define that 5 r diegesis for your model. consider every number as yearly return, so lets see it by using veridical historic follow-up.

1. Catastrophic (-70 %) - cast back 2018 (-73 %) and 2022 (-64 %) bear years.
2. Bear (-30 %) - concede a big dip without full capitulation.
3. Base (50 %) - aligns with multi-year average returns around 50-110% over typical 5year window.
4. Bull (100 %) - humble upwards momentum without mania.
5. Superbull (300-400 %) - reflect parabolic years like +1369 % in 2017 or +5400 % in 2013.

if you averaged bitcoin every twelve months volatility you will find 60-80%,  so no one can deny downside moves like -30%, but who cares if you hodl from early days? Now look at Median DCA models, since 2019 your weekly or monthly buys produce more than 50 % annually. So those bear year is fully stomached by big bull run which yield 100% + p.a

[betswift]

All I know is that bitcoin may be able to get to $500 thousand in the next 10 years, but you should know that there will be some tough time and not that the price will just continue to increase but in total, bitcoin should be able to increase above $500 thousand by that time. It will be a good investment.

Yep.

That's why we need no leverage to be on our BTCs to hodl it for these years - otherwise, it all may all crumble due to dips and corrections..

[pawanjain]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

I believe most of the people here would rate it 5/5 based of the historical returns of bitcoin.
Over a decade, bitcoin has outperformed any other asset and this gives us a positive hope of it following the same trajectory.
Let's not assume that it will give us the same ROI but still I believe it should give us pretty good returns over the next decade.
I am hoping for at least 3x from now on and so I would also give it 5/5.

[EL MOHA]

An investable asset giving you 20% per year constantly in the long term is not just "good", it is very difficult to find.

I know people think mostly short term, but At 20% and you will find that it is a x6 in 10 years, but x38 in 20. 10k becomes 380k. If you actually put something like 50k when you are 18 years old, you are near 2 million by the time you are 38 - that is life-changing money. The type of return that gets you financially free before you are 40.

Seriously this is also my take, we shouldn’t be carried away by the past pumps that bitcoin has had but rather we should be also considering the fact that the volatility will surely reduced and two of the major reason for that is the fact that it’s marke cap is seriously big and anything moving it up is going to be huge amount, also second thing is the fact that most investors are seriously holding and this in some years will have its effect on the volatility.

But regardless with the limited supply and always increasing demand there will be pumps but definitely not like before, for me x6 in 10 years has been my realistic expectations too because I don’t think between bitcoin four cycles we will be getting much higher than 3x. So for me I much like the price Pedro idea of using Saylor model, 40% is huge for a year but that doesn’t limit the fact that we can get like 50% in bullish year will be and go lower than 20% in bearish year, over the years if will definitely add up to 6x in 10 years. This is my realistic prediction and expectations too

[Dunamisx]

what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

I don't think there is limit to how we can earn from our investment in Bitcoin, once we have the tenacity to invest and hold for some time till it becomes more profitable for us to sell, in my own case, any percentage is fine and ok by me, as long as am going to break even from it, once am not at loss, anything should be a profit except if am being greedy or something else.