How Long Should You Hold Bitcoin for a Passive Income

[Isay]

Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now?

Well but the point I'm trying to make is that there is no constant growth. Constant in the sense that the exponential "growth rate" stays the same for several years.

The volatility chart indeed is not showing the whole picture (volatility can also be ramp up by short-term variations), it only hints to a tendency. So I checked the yearly average price on Jan 1 (prices in $) and calculated a 4 year average from 2014 on:

2011: 0.30
2012: 5
2013: 13
2014: 770
2015: 315
2016: 428
2017: 1010
2018: 13500
2019: 3800
2020: 7200
2021: 28800
2022: 47000
2023: 16000
2024: 42000
2025: 94000

Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-price.html#alltime

2014: 197
2015: 275 (39%)
2016: 381 (38%)
2017: 630 (65%)
2018: 3810 (500%)
2019: 4680 (23%)
2020: 6377 (36%)
2021: 13325 (108%)
2022: 21700 (62%)
2023: 24750 (14%)
2024: 33450 (35%)
2025: 49750 (48%)

Despite the varying numbers the tendency is very clear: the growth is decreasing. The 2018 growth of 500% was never reached again (the reason why we don't have higher values pre-2015 is that we don't have price data for pre-2011, we would have around 1000% otherwise for 2014). The well known rainbow charts show exactly the same tendency.

most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.)

The thing is that a realistic view doesn't prove your idea: if you want passive income, an apartment is indeed better than the "HODL and sell Bitcoin" plan. The only advantage of BTC is that real estate will need work from your part. So with BTC you can be a bit lazier, but you won't get the same type of passive income. Again, taking things like lending into account is another story.

So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits, mining equipment paid for itself even in 1 month, yes, that happened, but such moments happen almost once every hundred years, you shouldn't count on this for a long-term period, I don't think that I wrote some kind of unrealistic graph, I just don't understand how Bitcoin can develop without mining, do you know how it can exist with the blockchain turned off? I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all, it will only always fall, do you want to say that everyone should forget about Bitcoin and that it is the end? Or how can it exist without growth and without mining?

[Lida93]

Snip.

This is like misleading, thus, many people have the notion that this market is quite giving huge profits. But once they already involved themselves in this type of investment, they will realize that there's more than meets the eyes in this asset. Thus, if you are already a holder, be conservative with your estimates. Otherwise, you will get disappointed with your investments.

Very well anchored on a misleading trail for any newbie bitcoin interested Investor,  it's a concept that raises hopes all high dismissing the underlying flaws of volatility that the digital asset is sharply known for. Exactly as you said, being conservative with our estimates, predictions and expectations with bitcoin price... I only tend to be optimistic on bitcoin price value while patiently holding towards my planned timeframe.

[d5000]

So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits,

It wasn't really an "anomaly". We could also take the bull markets' amplitude alone to compare, although that would be a bit less precise.

The 2017/18 bull was, albeit very strong, already weaker than the 2013 bull (from $2 to $1000 -> ~50.000% growth). Then the 2021 bull ($3000 - $70000 -> 2200%) was weaker than the 2017 bull, and the 2025 bull (until now: $15,500 - $124,000 -> 700%) probably will not reach the amplitude of the 2021 bubble either. We don't know if the price has reached its peak, but to match the 2021 bull amplitude we would need to reach $350000 at least (a 2200% increase from the 15500 low from 2022). I would be surprised if we reached more than $200,000.

I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all,

That is for sure a challenge, but if Bitcoin really depends on a 100% growth every 4 years, then it is indeed doomed. It is simply impossible, eventually there would need to be more BTC value than atoms in the universe

But there are transaction fees, which albeit currently are very low, in the future they would make up a ever-growing part of the miners' income and eventually the block rewards would not matter anymore that much. It is possible however that the security budget could get lower. There is also the possibility of merged mining, but that depends on a strong sidechain/altcoin market.

As a last resort there could be either a tail emission (like Monero's, proposed I think by Peter Todd some time ago) or a switch to Proof of stake at least for a part of the security, but that are very controversial methods. It is perhaps possible to create a tail emission without changing the 21 million limit, as proposed here.

[Isay]

So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits,

It wasn't really an "anomaly". We could also take the bull markets' amplitude alone to compare, although that would be a bit less precise.

The 2017/18 bull was, albeit very strong, already weaker than the 2013 bull (from $2 to $1000 -> ~50.000% growth). Then the 2021 bull ($3000 - $70000 -> 2200%) was weaker than the 2017 bull, and the 2025 bull (until now: $15,500 - $124,000 -> 700%) probably will not reach the amplitude of the 2021 bubble either. We don't know if the price has reached its peak, but to match the 2021 bull amplitude we would need to reach $350000 at least (a 2200% increase from the 15500 low from 2022). I would be surprised if we reached more than $200,000.

I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all,

That is for sure a challenge, but if Bitcoin really depends on a 100% growth every 4 years, then it is indeed doomed. It is simply impossible, eventually there would need to be more BTC value than atoms in the universe

But there are transaction fees, which albeit currently are very low, in the future they would make up a ever-growing part of the miners' income and eventually the block rewards would not matter anymore that much. It is possible however that the security budget could get lower. There is also the possibility of merged mining, but that depends on a strong sidechain/altcoin market.

As a last resort there could be either a tail emission (like Monero's, proposed I think by Peter Todd some time ago) or a switch to Proof of stake at least for a part of the security, but that are very controversial methods. It is perhaps possible to create a tail emission without changing the 21 million limit, as proposed here.

You are right that this looks like madness, maybe we don’t know something and don’t understand what will happen next, you are talking about the fact that perhaps in the future Bitcoin will switch to Proof of Stake, then this is a very real development of Bitcoin, but when will this happen, while mining is still very profitable and presumably it will be profitable for a very long time, most likely we will have to switch to Proof of Stake when the price approaches 5-10 million dollars and not a single ASIC will be able to work in such a way that it brings profit, but the question is different, is it possible to do this technically and transfer the blockchain to Proof of Stake? and who can do it?

[d5000]

most likely we will have to switch to Proof of Stake when the price approaches 5-10 million dollars and not a single ASIC will be able to work in such a way that it brings profit

ASIC profitability does not really have to do with price. If the price is high, then Bitcoin will have by definition a bigger security budget than if it stays low. So ASICs will work fine if the price keeps increasing.

The danger is of course lower price growth than the equation: "block rewards + transaction fees + merged mining rewards" decreases due to halvings.

If "merged mining + transaction fees" alone is enough for a solid security budget, then Bitcoin is probably fine for the long term. Even if this security budget is lower than now (2025) it could still be high enough.

Do you think Bitcoin was safe in mid 2016 for example? The security budget in August 2016 was only about 1,5% of the current security budget: we now have a block reward of more than 350,000$ (110,000$ * 3.125 BTC) , while back then it was 5000$ (400$ * 12,5 BTC, fees were negligible back then)

The mid-2016 value is approximately the security budget we would have if now magically all block rewards disappeared, as the transaction fees make up currently 1-2% of miners' income. . So a return to 2016 levels is very much the worst case what could happen in the late 21th century. I expect the fee level + merged mining however to be higher even in a pessimistic scenario, at least 10% of the current value.

but the question is different, is it possible to do this technically and transfer the blockchain to Proof of Stake? and who can do it?

Technically it is no problem, it has been many times in the altcoin world, including by the altcoin #2 called Ethereum if you remember

"Who can do it" is a trickier question.

On a first glance it takes only a developer to implement the PoS code, and then the "economic nodes" (exchanges etc.) would be those who decide if this update "is still Bitcoin".

But there could be a strong movement opposing this change, which could be led by the miners (because they would be deprived of their income) but also Bitcoin enthusiasts who think that PoW is the best and most decentralized method to secure the blockchain. Including myself for example although I'm a nobody so my opinion alone would not count anything. This movement could create a hard fork, and it could be stronger than Bitcoin Cash in 2017, i.e. really challenge the answer to the question "what is Bitcoin"?

For example, the PoW defender group could create a fork with a tail emission, to ensure the security budget stays solid. That would also have its opponents but if the budget is already quite low it could work to attract enough people. In this case we would have a competition for the title of the true Bitcoin.

Thus, if really PoS is thought to be the best solution, there should be ample consensus before such a change is decided. And I guess this option would only be really on the table if the other options (tail emission, merged mining etc.) are too unsafe.

[sana54210]

It's definitely a terrible method if you are looking for bitcoin cashing out being your way of making money. You should never touch your bitcoins, you hold them as long as you could, if possible you leave them for your kids to inherit, that is the best part of bitcoin.

Because bitcoin is the greatest asset in the world, the best, and that means we are going to make that kind of money. So if you could do that then you are going to get the return you wish to get and should be greater. I understand it is not a simple task, but it can be better return. However, if you are not careful then you are going to get terrible results and cash it out all, you are going to lose a lot of money and won't do much in return.

[Adams0001]

It all depends on your investment goal, I can decide to invest and HODL for like 4 to 5 years or more so as to enable the profit get matured Before attempting to sell some portion. While some investors will not be  patient enough to HODL thier bitcoin till this time probably 8 to 10 months they start attempting to sell thier holdings, so it all depends on your target and one thing that would also help in achieving your goal/ target is how discipline you're if you are not discipline enough you can decide to sell your holdings for short term profit due to the volatile nature of bitcoin as you will be tempted to sell whenever there is a massive increase in the value. sometimes you can decide to sell due to panic probably when there is a dip in the price, so is all about being discipline to enable you stay focused regardless the market condition.

You can't predict when you will achieve your goal in Bitcoin just set your target and wait for the time to come and achieve your profit. You are right anyone have is on time to invest like 4 to 5 years but he will just be really difficult to get huge profit in bitcoin in just 4 to 5 years, but anything can be possible because is always volatile but to get more assurance about your investment is to keep it for like 10 years and you will definitely be profitable even you didn't get huge profit. But some can't keep it for long term because they don't have the patience to invest for long and that is why some usually find it difficult to be profitable in Bitcoin.

anything about investment is all about patience and if you can handle the patience you will surely benefit from your investment journey. In my opinion anyone that i can advise about bitcoin, if he want to invest and can says he should probably invest like 7years, but many people find it difficult to hold but I can't blame some because many people invest even without getting others source of income and when any problems comes they will surely sell there bitcoin investment funds to resolve the issues. But if you have more source is usually give you more up to hold for long term.

[EarnOnVictor]

Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why.

You are very right, bro, talk is cheap, the reality is supreme. I don't have doubts that Bitcoin can get to some insane price, but time matters. In the next 10 years, I don't even think Bitcoin can be over $250,000 by then, not to mention the $1m, it's the unrealistic dream of some people.

Another thing is that, as Bitcoin climbs higher, it needs more liquidity to move even higher. It's not like the time when it had a market cap of merely $100B. With that liquidity, it needs only an extra $100B to move 2 times its price. But now, it's getting crazier. Let's say it's at $2.3T in market cap now at $115,000, to gain 2 times, it needs an additional $2.3T, which is crazily huge. The higher the price, the more liquidity to move it higher. This liquidity will not be easily gotten, it will take time.

[Onyeeze]

Holding bitcoin for long time is basically the decision of the holder so anyone who is trying to hold Bitcoin for long time that means the person want to make a profit in future it is the Essence of some people who are holding bitcoin today to hold for long time is to make a profit, someone who have the mindset to hold for long time that person is not bothered for bearish season because he has made up his mind knowing that definitely by bitcoin will fall or it will rise and when it Rises it will make a profit so in summary the essence of holding Bitcoin in long time is because you want to a future benefit that will be more higher than the initial when you bought your Bitcoin before holding

[Figerland Shamrock]

There is no definitive answer as to how long you should hold Bitcoin for passive income because the concept of “passive income” from Bitcoin is not solely through holding, but rather by participating in staking mechanisms or lending your crypto to earn rewards. The time required to hold Bitcoin for speculative purposes or long-term investment varies greatly, but staking or lending requires holding for a specific period determined by the platform or protocol you use.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

Holding bitcoin for long time is basically the decision of the holder so anyone who is trying to hold Bitcoin for long time that means the person want to make a profit in future it is the Essence of some people who are holding bitcoin today to hold for long time is to make a profit, someone who have the mindset to hold for long time that person is not bothered for bearish season because he has made up his mind knowing that definitely by bitcoin will fall or it will rise and when it Rises it will make a profit so in summary the essence of holding Bitcoin in long time is because you want to a future benefit that will be more higher than the initial when you bought your Bitcoin before holding

True talk bro, the longer you hold, the bigger the reward most times..  I feel like there is no fixed time to hold Bitcoin, it all depends on your goal and patience.. But honestly, holding for some years, especially through the bearish seasons, that is where the real thing happens..
The people who have made massive income from Bitcoin did not just buy and sell in months, they stayed through the noise and trusted the process..