How Long Should You Hold Bitcoin for a Passive Income

[QuasarColumba]

Asking “how long should I hold Bitcoin for passive income?” comes from the fiat mindset. In today’s system, your money bleeds value, so you’re forced to chase yield and “passive income” just to stay afloat.
Bitcoin flips that. It isn’t meant to generate yield — it’s money that can’t be diluted. The longer you hold, the more purchasing power you preserve as fiat is debased.

So the real answer: you hold Bitcoin not for income, but to step off the treadmill.

[FortuneFollower]

Asking “how long should I hold Bitcoin for passive income?” comes from the fiat mindset. In today’s system, your money bleeds value, so you’re forced to chase yield and “passive income” just to stay afloat.
Bitcoin flips that. It isn’t meant to generate yield — it’s money that can’t be diluted. The longer you hold, the more purchasing power you preserve as fiat is debased.

So the real answer: you hold Bitcoin not for income, but to step off the treadmill.

BTC is the greatest alternative out there to preserve your value going forward, I definitely agree with you.

Welcome to the forum, by the way.

[Marykeller]

Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income)

Year      Price (USD)      Sale (BTC)      Remaining BTC
2036      960,000          0.1042          0.8958
2037      1,120,000        0.0893          0.8065
2038      1,280,000        0.0781          0.7284
2039      1,440,000        0.0694          0.6590
2040      1,920,000        0.0521          0.6069
2041      2,240,000        0.0446          0.5623
2042      2,560,000        0.0391          0.5232
2043      2,880,000        0.0347          0.4885
2044      3,840,000        0.0260          0.4625
2045      4,480,000        0.0223          0.4402
2046      5,120,000        0.0195          0.4207
2047      5,760,000        0.0174          0.4033

Looking at the price you posted from 2036 upwards. Does it mean that Bitcoin won't decrease a bit in other years? It will only be an increase in the price of Bitcoin that we will be seeing. No buying opportunity for investors to buy Bitcoin at a discount during the bearish market.

Sorry to burst that bubble of yours that your speculation won't work at all because the market doesn't operate in such motion(increasing motion). It fluctuates in price(upwards and downwards), opening up opportunities for investors to buy at a discount price to later sell at a high price.

[coolcoinz]

The bearish trend will make adjustments to OP's calculations, since when the price of bitcoin falls at such moments, the expenses (sales) of bitcoin will increase (it will be necessary to sell more units\parts of bitcoin to obtain a profit of $100k. per year).

Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.

His calculations are given under "ideal" conditions, without taking into account internal influences - the BTC-cycles and external influences, in the form of crises and the like.

That's the point. If we continue to have cycles and you expect to live of this passive income, you may find yourself in deep shit when the crisis, that some people are actually waiting for, begins.
If we adjust for a possible 50% bear market drawdown where you have to sell anyway to fund your lifestyle, the whole calculation starts to look different.

But why do you think that this will never happen and we achieved growth only because of the ETF? Perhaps the ETF helped the growth, there is always something that helps growth, and a very important point is the moral growth of the price, few people believed five years ago that bitcoin could reach 100,000, but it reached this mark and fixed itself at it, with 1 million it will also be very difficult, there are a lot of calculations where bitcoin reaches 1 million much earlier than 2036, but I do not believe in them because this is the same moral growth mark and it will also be very difficult to reach, but bitcoin will reach it or cease to exist, just think for yourself how bitcoin will work without constant growth, bitcoin cannot exist without mining and mining cannot exist without constant growth of bitcoin.

We did not did that only thanks to ETFs. I gave the ETF example to point towards a recent fast growth. It was the moment when a lot of money came to bitcoin and it still was less than you're predicting. That's why I'm skeptical that we'll continue to get 2024/25 inflows for the next 10 years.

Do you know why people say that we'll go to 1m next? Because they draw a straight line on charts that makes bitcoin look like it's going to continue to grow exponentially, but at some point this line is going to become more and more flat. Adoption tends to slow down. I'm not saying that we won't reach $1m, but I doubt that bitcoin will appreciate by $100k each year for the next 10 years. I certainly wouldn't rely on this as a source of income.

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

This table shows that in your imagination, I don't consider it as calculation as it is not based on any math, Bitcoin price will grow linearly with years. That has not happened since 2009 and it won't happen in the future.

Search and learn about Bitcoin market cycle that is four years for each cycle with bullish years and bearish years. When you learn, you will see that Bitcoin has not risen linearly with years in several market cycles so far.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

This also got me wondered as to when Bitcoin price rises and experiencing new ATH every year, it had never happened like this before which absolutely, the calculation done by the OP can never be correct. Op's calculation is based on the fact that Bitcoin price always reached new ATH every year and such assumptions had never occurred  and can never happen resulting it to be faulty.

[Davidvictorson]

Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income)

Year      Price (USD)      Sale (BTC)      Remaining BTC
2036      960,000          0.1042          0.8958
2037      1,120,000        0.0893          0.8065
2038      1,280,000        0.0781          0.7284
2039      1,440,000        0.0694          0.6590
2040      1,920,000        0.0521          0.6069
2041      2,240,000        0.0446          0.5623
2042      2,560,000        0.0391          0.5232
2043      2,880,000        0.0347          0.4885
2044      3,840,000        0.0260          0.4625
2045      4,480,000        0.0223          0.4402
2046      5,120,000        0.0195          0.4207
2047      5,760,000        0.0174          0.4033

Looking at the price you posted from 2036 upwards. Does it mean that Bitcoin won't decrease a bit in other years? It will only be an increase in the price of Bitcoin that we will be seeing. No buying opportunity for investors to buy Bitcoin at a discount during the bearish market.

Sorry to burst that bubble of yours that your speculation won't work at all because the market doesn't operate in such motion(increasing motion). It fluctuates in price(upwards and downwards), opening up opportunities for investors to buy at a discount price to later sell at a high price.

I found the post rather unbelievable because the OP failed to include variables like market fluctuations and trends and other mechanics that make the Blockchain network function systematically.
So for now, it is just a mere speculative post like any other except for the fact that, the time when an investor can start earning reasonable returns from their Bitcoin investments is close to or after a decade and that's an undisputed fact that still make many investors hold their Bitcoin for that long.

Also is the case of funding a profitable Bitcoin investment, because not many who have the right investment plan actually have a source of income to execute and achieve their desired results, even though the DCA strategy may be a safe haven model to practice for low income earners as well as high income earners.

[tabas]

This also got me wondered as to when Bitcoin price rises and experiencing new ATH every year, it had never happened like this before which absolutely, the calculation done by the OP can never be correct. Op's calculation is based on the fact that Bitcoin price always reached new ATH every year and such assumptions had never occurred  and can never happen resulting it to be faulty.

That's based on his assumptions and that the price of Bitcoin will be high every year by 2036. It also shows something out of it that you should only have at least 0.8 BTC by that time and we've got plenty of time, a decade until we reach to that amount. While it's known from the forum that there are notable users here that have more than 1, 10 and even more than a hundred. They've got their own plans too and people should read what's suggested about JJG's thread. It's very insightful and can give some idea on how to plan your sale.

[Floxynice]

It’s worth noting that this isn’t the easiest calculation, and getting an exact number is quite challenging. Bitcoin will remain in your portfolio over time. If we begin selling from 2036 at $100,000 per year, in roughly 10 years we could safely increase annual withdrawals to $200,000. Approximately every decade after that, it should be possible to gradually raise the amount of Bitcoin we spend in dollar terms, keeping a stable and growing passive income.

This is so good to be true. I am a strong believer in bitcoin, I am very passionate about it. However, what I will never do is over exaggerating bitcoin to anyone. It is true that one can become rich from investing in bitcoin, especially following the duration stated in the op. But op decorated bitcoin so well that he did not make mention of any possible decline in price during those periods. Thereby making it seem like bear season does not exist.

This post is somehow misleading or maybe not comprehensive enough. Op himself needs guidance to really understand how bitcoin works.

[Free Market Capitalist]

The profit we got from selling Bitcoin is a capital gain, not passive income.

I disagree with this because, for starters, there are countries without capital gains tax. And then there is income that is considered “passive,” such as rental income, which is not so passive, especially if you manage the rentals yourself.

If you have to make analysis, making a plan when to buy, sell and re-buy Bitcoin, you're a trader which spent time for making money, not just sitting on your bed and you're still earn.

Sell and re-buy? When we talk about passive income with bitcoin, it's because you've reached a level where you don't have to repurchase. Since you gave that example, I'll give you another: you bought 1,000 bitcoins more than a decade ago, and with your lifestyle, you only need 1 bitcoin a year to live (at current prices). All you have to do is click twice when you need to sell.

[Luzin]

Sell and re-buy? When we talk about passive income with bitcoin, it's because you've reached a level where you don't have to repurchase. Since you gave that example, I'll give you another: you bought 1,000 bitcoins more than a decade ago, and with your lifestyle, you only need 1 bitcoin a year to live (at current prices). All you have to do is click twice when you need to sell.

You definitely need to have a target. But it's best not to reduce your BTC holdings unless you really need to. You can sell and then buy again, by understanding the halving period bull and bear sites to make more BTC. I understand that passive income is income without active or ongoing involvement, so the money works for you even if you are not working directly. But remember that BTC is highly volatile, and just holding it will cause us to lose money at certain moments. So I think it's not quite suitable to use Bitcoin as passive income, unless, for example, you use the Staking feature on an exchange.

[Apocollapse]

Sell and re-buy? When we talk about passive income with bitcoin, it's because you've reached a level where you don't have to repurchase. Since you gave that example, I'll give you another: you bought 1,000 bitcoins more than a decade ago, and with your lifestyle, you only need 1 bitcoin a year to live (at current prices). All you have to do is click twice when you need to sell.

The amount of your illustration is too huge, it's not able to be achieved by Average Joe. I think someone in this forum might have 1K Bitcoins, but what's the point to discuss a high privilege person to low privilege people? the high privilege person trying to show if it's possible to be achieved by low privilege people, when the reality it's not.

In your illustration, you have 1K and you only use 1 per year, which mean 0.1%

While in @OP illustration, he have 1 and sold 0.1 at the first year, which mean 10%.

If someone can live comfortable in a year by selling 0.1% from 1 BTC (0.001 BTC), then yeah they can treat Bitcoin as a passive income because they don't need to do anything to live comfortable.

[DeathAngel]

I love the price projections in the OP, not too sure how realistic they are though. We can’t even 2x the price from the previous cycle at the moment. With increasing institutional adoption though & hopefully nation state adoption over the next decade, perhaps something like the plan OP devised is realistic. I am feeling a little deflated at this moment about this bull run though.

[OcTradism]

I love the price projections in the OP, not too sure how realistic they are though. We can’t even 2x the price from the previous cycle at the moment.

No cycle is 100% same as a past cycle and this market cycle can have a first time in Bitcoin market history that price fails to x2 from ATH of a previous market cycle. I won't feel too disappointed if it happens as with time and market cycles, Bitcoin price increases so its market cap rises too. Consequently, to x2 its price from a previous market's ATH, it needs to have bigger capital in the market. It has become harder and harder to repeat past ROIs in latest ROIs and Bitcoin market cycle ROIs will be shrinked with time.

With increasing institutional adoption though & hopefully nation state adoption over the next decade, perhaps something like the plan OP devised is realistic. I am feeling a little deflated at this moment about this bull run though.

I believe Bitcoin will have price of $1 million for 1 BTC in the future but honestly I don't know when and even don't mind to make my prediction when it happens.

[peter0425]

Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income)

Year      Price (USD)      Sale (BTC)      Remaining BTC
2036      960,000          0.1042          0.8958
2037      1,120,000        0.0893          0.8065
2038      1,280,000        0.0781          0.7284
2039      1,440,000        0.0694          0.6590
2040      1,920,000        0.0521          0.6069
2041      2,240,000        0.0446          0.5623
2042      2,560,000        0.0391          0.5232
2043      2,880,000        0.0347          0.4885
2044      3,840,000        0.0260          0.4625
2045      4,480,000        0.0223          0.4402
2046      5,120,000        0.0195          0.4207
2047      5,760,000        0.0174          0.4033
2048      7,680,000        0.0130          0.3903
2049      8,960,000        0.0112          0.3791
2050      10,240,000       0.0098          0.3693
2051      11,520,000       0.0087          0.3606
2052      15,360,000       0.0065          0.3541
2053      17,280,000       0.0058          0.3483
2054      19,200,000       0.0052          0.3431
2055      21,120,000       0.0047          0.3384
2056      30,720,000       0.0033          0.3351
2057      33,280,000       0.0030          0.3321
2058      35,840,000       0.0028          0.3293
2059      38,400,000       0.0026          0.3267
2060      61,440,000       0.0016          0.3251
2061      66,560,000       0.0015          0.3236
2062      71,680,000       0.0014          0.3222
2063      76,800,000       0.0013          0.3209
2064      122,880,000      0.0008          0.3201
2065      133,120,000      0.0008          0.3193

You not taking into consideration bull runs or bear runs already make this table inaccurate, I am afraid. I appreciate your effort but bitcoin will not continue to appreciate value every year with no corrections or down times. Bitcoin goes down, you buy. Bitcoin goes up, you sell. This way you can earn profit which you are hoping to do, yes?

[Pandorak]

This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.

Calculations like this are indeed interesting because they attempt to provide an overview of how 1 Bitcoin can be managed to become a source of long term income. However, it should be understood that models like this are highly dependent on assumptions about the future price of Bitcoin, which is inherently uncertain. I think it is healthier to maintain realistic expectations rather than relying entirely on projected figures. As i am doing now, i am accumulating Bitcoin using the DCA method with discretionary funds. I think this looks better and more realistic. In addition, i view Bitcoin not only as an investment asset but also as a form of protection against the decline in value of the assets we own. In this context, it helps ensure that the value of the money we have is not eroded by inflation and also provides an opportunity to profit from investment returns.

That's not solid planning though, specially in bitcoin market where it has been proven already that it can have long bear markets where price keeps going down instead of going up. Then you end up selling a bigger percentage of what you have to get the same fiat value out. I'm talking about a period like 2018 for example.

I would also not call it "passive income", that is more like slow liquidation of your investment. A passive income shouldn't involve your initial capital melting away but instead you should still be able to keep the 1BTC and still earn the annual $100k.
Assuming $1 mil price, that makes it a 10% profit which is possible without having to touch the capital.

Exactly, this looks more like a gradual liquidation of assets, because ideally, passive income should come from mechanisms that generate yield without sacrificing core assets (initial capital). Like using a crypto lending platform, which allows us to lend Bitcoin in exchange for interest, only this is riskier, because if the platform goes bankrupt, the funds could be lost. Bitcoin operates on a Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism that relies on mining, not staking like Ethereum, so the option chosen to generate yield is riskier. I think keeping 1 Bitcoin intact while looking for ways to generate yield from it with lower risk would be much wiser.

[Isay]

This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.

Calculations like this are indeed interesting because they attempt to provide an overview of how 1 Bitcoin can be managed to become a source of long term income. However, it should be understood that models like this are highly dependent on assumptions about the future price of Bitcoin, which is inherently uncertain. I think it is healthier to maintain realistic expectations rather than relying entirely on projected figures. As i am doing now, i am accumulating Bitcoin using the DCA method with discretionary funds. I think this looks better and more realistic. In addition, i view Bitcoin not only as an investment asset but also as a form of protection against the decline in value of the assets we own. In this context, it helps ensure that the value of the money we have is not eroded by inflation and also provides an opportunity to profit from investment returns.

In fact, it is up to everyone to decide, I support your ability to accumulate and control the amount using DCA

But think about the fact that not everyone can do this, it is partly necessary to have a little knowledge of trading, personally I know how to trade and have a lot of experience, but I did not write about this because it will already be very tricky and difficult,

This option is also impossible to guarantee in the long term, I will even say more, it is generally unrealistic to somehow calculate,

With this calculation that I wrote, I included such things as the complexity of mining, halving and the minimum cost during mining to which bitcoin should not fall, I understand that this does not give a 100% guarantee that bitcoin will not do this,

But if this happens and the price falls below the minimum cost of mining, then the blockchain will stop due to the fact that all ASIC miners will turn off due to the fact that bitcoin will be cheaper to buy than to mine.

That's why I think that such a calculation, although crazy, can be counted on.

[Lida93]

These are the kinds of projections newbies see online and rush to invest in bitcoin. This calculation above looks very clean and will easily excite anyone who is interested in investing their money. However, I think this post is flawed by the fact that it did not put some factors into consideration. I would want to know from op if he has tried this strategy and consistently earned $100,000 annual profits to be confident enough to recommend this to others.

...

The strategy isn't coherent and doesn't meets the reality of the financial market that is known to be a volatile one where bear markets exist and could last beyond a year and more before the bulls when bitcoin holders can start making profit thereafter the circle. Under such market I don't understand how anyone can be making annual $100k profits as calculated by the op.

[AmoreJaz]

These are the kinds of projections newbies see online and rush to invest in bitcoin. This calculation above looks very clean and will easily excite anyone who is interested in investing their money. However, I think this post is flawed by the fact that it did not put some factors into consideration. I would want to know from op if he has tried this strategy and consistently earned $100,000 annual profits to be confident enough to recommend this to others.
...

The strategy isn't coherent and doesn't meets the reality of the financial market that is known to be a volatile one where bear markets exist and could last beyond a year and more before the bulls when bitcoin holders can start making profit thereafter the circle. Under such market I don't understand how anyone can be making annual $100k profits as calculated by the op.

This is like misleading, thus, many people have the notion that this market is quite giving huge profits. But once they already involved themselves in this type of investment, they will realize that there's more than meets the eyes in this asset. Thus, if you are already a holder, be conservative with your estimates. Otherwise, you will get disappointed with your investments.

Even if btc is more than a decade old, still, its volatility is the main interest of most holders. Because of the wide range of price increase/drop, it is a very good avenue for them to get involved in this market to generate some profits. But no one should rely on this market to accumulate their passive income because it is not.

[d5000]

Alternative and more realistic calculation:

Situation 2025: You have 1 BTC and want to have, each 4 years, the same amount in USD. The rest will be sold or spent as "passive income".

Price evolution:

Let's say that we hit a 140,000 ATH this year and have then new ATHs each 4 years with 70% of the previous cycle profit.

- 2025: 140,000 (100% profit compared to previous ATH of 69,000$)
- 2029 240.000 $ (70% previous ATH - 0.7 * 100%)
- 2033 360.000 $ (49% previous ATH - 0.7 * 70%)
- 2037 480.000 $ (34% previous ATH - 0.7 * 49%)
- 2041 600.000 $ (24% previous ATH - 0.7 * 34%)

We simplify greatly here: let's say 2025-28, 2029-32 etc. the price is exactly the same and then it jumps to the next level.

You then need the following amount of BTC to hold your USD value. The difference between your current holdings and the holdings at the "last level" is the payout you can afford without losing USD value:

- 2025-28: 1 BTC - no payout
- 2029-32: 0.58 BTC - payout; 0.42 BTC in 4 years, 0.105 BTC per year, ~0.009 BTC per month (2200$)
- 2033-36: 0.38 BTC - payout: 0.2 BTC in 4 years, 0.05 BTC per year, ~0.005 BTC per month (1700$)
- 2037-40: 0.29 BTC - payout: 0.09 BTC in 4 years, 0.0225 BTC per year, ~0.002 BTC per month (960$)
- 2041-44: 0.23 BTC - payout: 0.06 BTC in 4 years, 0.015 per year, ~0.0011 BTC per month (660$)

So you get the idea, right? With a shrinking volatility there is no stable passive income, instead the value you can afford to pay out gets lower and lower. Nevertheless the idea may not be that bad.

[Darker45]

I'm afraid you're being too optimistic to the point that you seem detached from reality. If you plot your predictions on a graph, it would look far from the graph that contains Bitcoin's actual performance in the past. You seem to have even completely disregarded bear seasons. Annual growths are also too high. It's simply unrealistic.

I guess it's enough for us to stack as much Sats as possible and avoid setting timelines. We're in an uncertain market. We stack Sats, hodl, and take profit at the best possible time. Also, let's have our main sources of income outside Bitcoin investment. It doesn't seem prudent to assume a generous annual yield from it.