Planning to Compound Bet on NBA There will be Overtime Market

[xLays]

Since the NBA season is about to start this coming October 22, I’m planning to do compound betting strategy on the "There will be Overtime" market bet in NBA games.
Usually, the odds for No Overtime market are around 1.02 to 1.05. My base bet will be start only $25. Let’s say I consistently bet on 1.05 odds for all 82 games of no overtime market if I manage to hit all 82 bets without a single loss, my compounded $25 would grow to around $1400 by the end of the season.

Do you think it’s worth the risk? Would you do the same? Has anyone here on bitcointalk tried doing this kind of compounding strategy before and successfully reach the desire amount?
Your thoughts please.

[Cointxz]

Season   OT Games
2014‑15   76
2015‑16   77
2016‑17   70
2017‑18   62
2018‑19   67
2019‑20   69
2020‑21   56
2021‑22   58
2022‑23   79
2023‑24   59

That’s the stats of the previous OT games based on statmuse. According to AI OT games is roughly 6%-9% of the total games.

I believe it’s worth the shot but the real pain is the motivation to continue halfway if you already have a decent win accumulated. 

[danherbias07]

I once had an idea of betting the other way. The "Will there be an Overtime- Yes", but I never went for No Overtime because I think there's no profit in it. Unless what will be done is like your idea.

Still, have you tried at least putting some 5-10 Overtime that will happen in the whole season? I mean, minus that from the profits, of course. How much will it be? How about 10-20 games with overtime? Will it still be profitable? It could happen, and looking at how balanced the teams are today, it will be scary to be for a "no overtime" option.

[Russlenat]

You can’t outsmart them, the odds are never in your favor, so it’s not really safe. And if you keep compounding your bets, it’ll just mess with your mood, especially when you’ve built up a good streak and then the game suddenly goes into overtime.. everything you worked for can disappear in seconds. For me, that’s not a good strategy. Just keep it simple, focus on mastering your picks and getting a good win percentage on point spreads and totals, with solid bankroll management of course.

The easiest way is to start with a decent bankroll and aim small. Doing the opposite.. starting small and aiming big - usually ends in failure.

[rbynxx]

Do you plan to just stick it on a single team or you want to bet it on all games if it's the latter I guess that's a lot of games. Let's say you manage to make it in the first month winning but I think just few losing streaks you'd be in a loss. If this is just an experiment I think sticking with a single team for now is a great step, you can level it up if you think you've got your system good. Last season the team with least overtime appearances was Boston Celtics, just 5-6 games.

[xLays]

Do you plan to just stick it on a single team or you want to bet it on all games if it's the latter I guess that's a lot of games. Let's say you manage to make it in the first month winning but I think just few losing streaks you'd be in a loss. If this is just an experiment I think sticking with a single team for now is a great step, you can level it up if you think you've got your system good. Last season the team with least overtime appearances was Boston Celtics, just 5-6 games.

I can stick to one team that’s why I mentioned 82 games. Or I might go with the team that’s currently at the bottom of the standings, like the one with the lowest wins this season. For my first five bets, I’ll go with Dallas since they got the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft.

I never really checked NBA overtime stats because my way of choosing teams to bet on doesn’t rely on that. I don’t think it matters much.

Whatever happens, I’ll just go with it. Once I start, I’ll post my progress here so we can see how far my bets go. If I lose, I’ll lock this thread.

[rbynxx]

I can stick to one team that’s why I mentioned 82 games. Or I might go with the team that’s currently at the bottom of the standings, like the one with the lowest wins this season. For my first five bets, I’ll go with Dallas since they got the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft.

I never really checked NBA overtime stats because my way of choosing teams to bet on doesn’t rely on that. I don’t think it matters much.

Whatever happens, I’ll just go with it. Once I start, I’ll post my progress here so we can see how far my bets go. If I lose, I’ll lock this thread.

Well, I thought it's just a single team you're betting on considering you said it was 82 games which happens to be the games played by all teams in NBA and you said by the end of the season. By that this will be done in just a month I guess if you're just aiming for 82 games randomly. Well, the floor is yours and I think it would be for the best interest of the community if you post here your bets beforehand maybe we'd be interested on it.

[stadus]

If you play by probability, according to the article
https://www.binomialbasketball.com/p/probability-of-nba-overtime-over

the chance of a game going into overtime is around 6% (rounded off). but you’re only getting odds between 1.02 to 1.05, which means you’re not getting the true implied probability, the odds are actually against you.

the real probability is about 94%, so technically the odds should be around 1.06 in decimal.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

[Maslate]

~snip~

the real probability is about 94%, so technically the odds should be around 1.06 in decimal.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Great explanation. So, we basically end up getting worse odds than the implied probability, which puts us at a disadvantage. I think it’s kinda the same with parlays , the more legs you add, the smaller your chances get. At that point, it’s not really about analysis anymore, it’s just pure luck.

So strategy doesn’t even matter much since it won’t help you win consistently.
@op, I hope you take some time to check what was shared here before starting your experiment.

[AbuBhakar]

~snip~

the real probability is about 94%, so technically the odds should be around 1.06 in decimal.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Great explanation. So, we basically end up getting worse odds than the implied probability, which puts us at a disadvantage. I think it’s kinda the same with parlays , the more legs you add, the smaller your chances get. At that point, it’s not really about analysis anymore, it’s just pure luck.

So strategy doesn’t even matter much since it won’t help you win consistently.
@op, I hope you take some time to check what was shared here before starting your experiment.

But this is always the case due to the house edge. All the bets we are taking is less than the true probability due to the house edge applied by the sportsbook. Which means an even match usually listed as 1.9 both sides while it should be a 2.0 odds if we will follow the true probability.

Taking 1.02-1.05 odds is somehow close to 1.06 the true probability of his pick.

The challenge on this bet is dodging the game that will result to overtime with 6% chance for that to happened on 82 trial.

[Russlenat]

But this is always the case due to the house edge. All the bets we are taking is less than the true probability due to the house edge applied by the sportsbook. Which means an even match usually listed as 1.9 both sides while it should be a 2.0 odds if we will follow the true probability.

Bookies aren’t always right, there are lines they post that are clearly undervalued. If you know the true probability, you can actually take advantage of that. It’s not always about the odds, it’s more on the ATS and totals.

But in OP’s case, since he’s betting on the game not going into overtime, then we have to look closely at the odds. Based on the stats he shared, it doesn’t really match the true probability. So if I were to bet, I’d skip that kind of outcome.. you’ll just end up losing in the long run. It’s not worth it, especially since if the game goes to OT, it kills all your accumulated wins in one go.

[Cryptohygenic]

Since the NBA season is about to start this coming October 22, I’m planning to do compound betting strategy on the "There will be Overtime" market bet in NBA games.
Usually, the odds for No Overtime market are around 1.02 to 1.05. My base bet will be start only $25. Let’s say I consistently bet on 1.05 odds for all 82 games of no overtime market if I manage to hit all 82 bets without a single loss, my compounded $25 would grow to around $1400 by the end of the season.

I actually don't bet on basketballs in the sport games because as I really don't understand the game that much I will barely make favourable decisions on betting on it.
But understand that in sports no teams can be underrated and not even the underdog. I will also reserve my congratulations to you only when you have made this aim achievable because in sports bets when you finally make this achievement a reality because you can be so confident on your decision and as sport games is unpredictable you could get a different outcome. Although NBA is a favorite basketball league which may give you a some good chances in analysing the teams regardless of not getting guaranteed of winning but atleast you will enjoy the tournament. So I hope you don't also prioritize on the money making but the fun too.

[Sanitough]

Although NBA is a favorite basketball league which may give you a some good chances in analysing the teams regardless of not getting guaranteed of winning but atleast you will enjoy the tournament. So I hope you don't also prioritize on the money making but the fun too.

When you’re just betting on the outcome of “no overtime,” it doesn’t really matter what basketball league it is, there’s not much difference anyway since you’re basically just playing with probability.

And I’m pretty sure OP isn’t the first one to try this kind of experiment, but still, I gotta admire his creativity in sports betting. He’s trying to find a way to outsmart the bookies, something most of us haven’t figured out yet - and probably never will.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Since the NBA season is about to start this coming October 22, I’m planning to do compound betting strategy on the "There will be Overtime" market bet in NBA games.
Usually, the odds for No Overtime market are around 1.02 to 1.05. My base bet will be start only $25. Let’s say I consistently bet on 1.05 odds for all 82 games of no overtime market if I manage to hit all 82 bets without a single loss, my compounded $25 would grow to around $1400 by the end of the season.

Do you think it’s worth the risk? Would you do the same? Has anyone here on bitcointalk tried doing this kind of compounding strategy before and successfully reach the desire amount?
Your thoughts please.

You are done on the 2nd day of the official tournament of the NBA.

OKC vs Indiana for 2 x overtime while the Golden State vs Denver Nuggets gone to Overtime.
There were only 2 games today in the NBA and both games went to Overtime I hope you did not bet for non OT today

[stadus]

You are done on the 2nd day of the official tournament of the NBA.

OKC vs Indiana for 2 x overtime while the Golden State vs Denver Nuggets gone to Overtime.
There were only 2 games today in the NBA and both games went to Overtime I hope you did not bet for non OT today

It’s too early to say that the experience won’t work, or maybe OP just picked the wrong team if he bet on a game that went to overtime. Anyway, let’s see if he actually puts it into action after reading that post explaining that mathematically, there’s no real value in betting on games not to go into overtime, especially when the odds are very low.