People wants AI bubble to burst

[YellowSwap]

Why is everyone calling for AI bubble? It seems that the world want this bubble thing to happen, even Nvidia had to talk about it.



$120 Ddr5 ram stick now cost $180- $230

Now the next scarcity will hit graphics card too.

Both Nvidia and AMD had to cancel their upcoming graphics cards, due to chips scarcity.

[hugeblack]

It's true there's growing interest in AI applications, but that doesn't mean the bubble will burst. Rather, interest in AI will gradually decline, or at least we've reached AI peak. As for scarcity, we have huge investments in this field; for example, $53 billion CHIPS and Science Act ---> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

[BattleDog]

A lot of people don't actually want the AI bubble to burst, they just want their GPUs and RAM back at sane prices and are using "bubble" as shorthand for "this feels unsustainable".

What's happening now is three things at once: genuine demand from AI training, general supply chain / geopolitics, and a big dose of FOMO from companies slapping "AI" on every slide deck to pump their stock. That last part is what people are calling a bubble.

Even if/when the froth pops, the long-term trend is still based around more compute, more models and more demand. So I wouldn't count on RAM and GPUs going back to 2015 prices forever, but I also wouldn't be shocked if the used market is stacked with "AI startup liquidation" hardware a couple of years from now, just like it was packed with ex-mining rigs.

[teddybear]

Why is everyone calling for AI bubble? It seems that the world want this bubble thing to happen, even Nvidia had to talk about it.
~snip~

It's because they've inflated the evaluation and profits of companies that are sending money to each other.
Look at this and you'll understand what I'm talking about.
On top of it, they've created some sort of monopoly regarding AI and its advancements with only exception being China doing its own thing for the time being.

[Hispo]

So far people are calling this a bubble because most companies are losing money with these artificial intelligences, which are being offered for free to the bulk of people who are interested on them... The plan of companies like Open AI, Microsoft, Meta and others is making the population of the planet highly dependant on artificial intelligences, so when corporations start to charge actual money for what used to be free, then people won't have any option but pay in order to remain competitive.

Not even mention AI uses a lot of energetical and logistical resources which could be used in other sectors, like health and education.
Now people will experience and scarcity on GPUs and people won't be able to afford the most basic gaming setup in the coming years, all due to these companies invested in this new technology.

[justinlamode]

You are connecting two scenarios that have no connection because scarcity in chips does not connoted that AI is a bubble. AI being a bubble have more to do with the surge of AI as a technology and not the scarcity of supply chain for materials used for production. In a situation of such scarcities, it simply will make AI demand skyrocket and and not nosedive if we want to follow the laws of economics. I do not share the opinion that AI is a bubble, it is the new phase of technology that will find application in every field.

[tsaroz]

AI itself is a technology and not a bubble. But the way people and companies are investing in AI and the way the shares of these AI companies has rose, is said to be unnatural and a correction is due. There are people who buy shares for trading but the ultimate value of shares are determined by the dividends that they provide. The dividend of hardware companies like NVDIA is still solid as they sell hardware for cash but the dividend of the software companies that has invested heavily in AI is not good enough to sustain the price.
As the competition increases in AI, the service they provide is going to be cheaper while they have already invested a fortune on it. The ROI would be really small. The fear is not a sentiment but real market evaluation. AI investment being bubble is not a suggestion but a fact. The AI companies in US themselves are suggesting the government to bail them out when the crash happens.

[el kaka22]

"Want", is a weird one. I do not think people want it to burst, I think we are seeing them change and find this to be a bigger help for people if it does better. AI right now is very dangerous, because it's mostly wrong, it's trying it's best but still very wrong and there are way too many people trust it and that is causing issues.

Because if the whole world starts to believe something wrong is true just because AI was made wrong, then we are going to face a ton of issues. Grok was good on that part, because while it was wrong many times, we also knew it was wrong and mocked it, it's getting a bit better, but still pretty wrong and for us it's the "funny" AI, not the real one. Chatgpt is way more dangerous, because it looks legit, but can be as much wrong as grok, while acting like a serious AI.

[Odusko]

It's true there's growing interest in AI applications, but that doesn't mean the bubble will burst. Rather, interest in AI will gradually decline, or at least we've reached AI peak. As for scarcity, we have huge investments in this field; for example, $53 billion CHIPS and Science Act ---> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

I think we are far from that, AI sector just started, yes things may get expensive, but we are not near the end for AI and people have alot of positive outlook for AI and not negative like the thread make it sound.
We are witnessing a lot of significant developments in the AI tools and for sure competition is growing between ChatGPT and grok in terms of user preferences and compatibility with datas sourcing and applications, so the journey just started.

[Hispo]

"Want", is a weird one. I do not think people want it to burst, I think we are seeing them change and find this to be a bigger help for people if it does better. AI right now is very dangerous, because it's mostly wrong, it's trying it's best but still very wrong and there are way too many people trust it and that is causing issues.

It is not weird at all. There are a lot of people who are hoping for artificial intelligence to become a thing of the past and people and companies to move on from it, because those people would completely lose their jobs and career path to artificial intelligence.

If it is a bubble, I could not imagine who the business of AI would look like after all the hype is gone and companies start to take even higher losses than they are taking now. Companies are expecting us to get accustomed to Articial intelligences so they can charge us outrageous prices in the future. That could change if this alleged bubble burst.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Some people think AI bubble will pop because the circular economy between these AI companies basically just AI companies investing to other AI companies rinse and repeat.

If the economy were purely driven by the AI demand and supply, I'd be doubtful the bubble will pop. The chip shortage is a proof that the demand is there.

[livingfree]

Yeah, the computer parts are on a bubble because of the demand of AI from these corporations. Those who has plan to upgrade their PCs, you're quite late to the party already because the increase has been made already.

And if it regards with the pricing these tech stocks related to AI and as well as crypto, they're different.

The stocks are likely to go down since it's not going to be up at all times and it has no direct effect with the crypto that are into AI too.

Parts and stocks are the ones that have increased but with the crypto/altcoins that are in AI, I haven't seen they've rallied.

[pooya87]

This should be in economics board not altcoin board.

Generally speaking the evidence shows the AI bubble is just beginning to grow and is nowhere near its peak to want to talk about it bursting. That means all companies and related stocks have a good potential of growing.

However if you are talking about the fake AI related tokens (since this is altcoin board) that was always a bubble because tokens are useless and they are only using AI as a buzzword and don't really have anything to do with it. So any price they have is way above their actual value which makes them a bubble.

$120 Ddr5 ram stick now cost $180- $230
Now the next scarcity will hit graphics card too.
Both Nvidia and AMD had to cancel their upcoming graphics cards, due to chips scarcity.

Part of that is because of the global conflict specially between US and China over Taiwan which has destabilized the supply chain (eg. the rare earth metals used in production of chips) and production of chips.

If that conflict gets any worse (eg. China invades Taiwan) the price of everything (computer hardware related) would shoot to the moon.

[bettercrypto]

"Want", is a weird one. I do not think people want it to burst, I think we are seeing them change and find this to be a bigger help for people if it does better. AI right now is very dangerous, because it's mostly wrong, it's trying it's best but still very wrong and there are way too many people trust it and that is causing issues.

It is not weird at all. There are a lot of people who are hoping for artificial intelligence to become a thing of the past and people and companies to move on from it, because those people would completely lose their jobs and career path to artificial intelligence.

If it is a bubble, I could not imagine who the business of AI would look like after all the hype is gone and companies start to take even higher losses than they are taking now. Companies are expecting us to get accustomed to Articial intelligences so they can charge us outrageous prices in the future. That could change if this alleged bubble burst.

Nowadays, AI apps are becoming incredibly trending and are proving to be useful and helpful, especially for social media influencers creating content about the new AI tools they discover.
I also believe we are truly in an era where AI is flourishing.

We don't know exactly how long or how far this hype will go, but since AI offers so many benefits right now, as long as you have an internet connection, anyone can surely access
and enjoy the greatness of AI apps.

[passwordnow]

Some people think AI bubble will pop because the circular economy between these AI companies basically just AI companies investing to other AI companies rinse and repeat.

If the economy were purely driven by the AI demand and supply, I'd be doubtful the bubble will pop. The chip shortage is a proof that the demand is there.

While that's the big thing right now, it's still possible that the pop can happen once the supply of the chips goes back to normal. But I think that it will take a long time before it happens, the US and China fighting for that semiconductor company in a small country, Taiwan is also taking into notice. They don't have to fight over it and they can simply make deal for both ends to benefit from that because if not, this shortage is going to be longer than expected.

[Ojima-ojo]

Some people think AI bubble will pop because the circular economy between these AI companies basically just AI companies investing to other AI companies rinse and repeat.

If the economy were purely driven by the AI demand and supply, I'd be doubtful the bubble will pop. The chip shortage is a proof that the demand is there.

While that's the big thing right now, it's still possible that the pop can happen once the supply of the chips goes back to normal. But I think that it will take a long time before it happens, the US and China fighting for that semiconductor company in a small country, Taiwan is also taking into notice. They don't have to fight over it and they can simply make deal for both ends to benefit from that because if not, this shortage is going to be longer than expected.

Supply chain will get eas off in the future, and things will become more accessible, and cheaper, as against what is widely speculated about the scarcity that will lead to increase demand and ultimately price surging in the future.

China and the US will definitely come to agreement and cooperation when the trade crisis is resolved and terms meant by both parties involved.

[malekbaba]

AI bubble may burst. Why?
Companies are selling Ai products at very high price and we are making sky high expectations.
Recently Ai produces banks of money and market will correct the price by nature. And Ai is mostly controlled by key companies, so it feels like centralized monopoly.
But Ai bubble may not burst,  rather it will decline. Cause people are investing into real business like chip production,  infrastructure building,  so there will be prolonged use case for future.

[TastyChillySauce00]

While that's the big thing right now, it's still possible that the pop can happen once the supply of the chips goes back to normal. But I think that it will take a long time before it happens, the US and China fighting for that semiconductor company in a small country, Taiwan is also taking into notice. They don't have to fight over it and they can simply make deal for both ends to benefit from that because if not, this shortage is going to be longer than expected.

Chip shortage definitely a concern, but the thing is these AI companies have been the highest bidder and they're just buying more than ever now to scale their AI need for computing power.

There are also other chips tailored for LLM or machine learning still being cooked behind the scene such as the recent meta deal with google to use google's chip. I think this one gonna be the reason why the bubble pop in the future if there's any.
A contender in chip that provides more efficient and lower cost computing tailored for AI that can become a difficult competitior for NVIDIA and can be the cause for the NVIDIA stock to dump so hard.

[passwordnow]

While that's the big thing right now, it's still possible that the pop can happen once the supply of the chips goes back to normal. But I think that it will take a long time before it happens, the US and China fighting for that semiconductor company in a small country, Taiwan is also taking into notice. They don't have to fight over it and they can simply make deal for both ends to benefit from that because if not, this shortage is going to be longer than expected.

Supply chain will get eas off in the future, and things will become more accessible, and cheaper, as against what is widely speculated about the scarcity that will lead to increase demand and ultimately price surging in the future.

China and the US will definitely come to agreement and cooperation when the trade crisis is resolved and terms meant by both parties involved.

I think during the pandemic height or pre-pandemic, the prices of GPU have risen as well thanks to the in demand of GPU mining. But then, when ETH switched to POS, the market of GPUs have calmed down. And that's why I think the demand right now due to AI is going to calm down soon as well but we don't know when.

Chip shortage definitely a concern, but the thing is these AI companies have been the highest bidder and they're just buying more than ever now to scale their AI need for computing power.

There are also other chips tailored for LLM or machine learning still being cooked behind the scene such as the recent meta deal with google to use google's chip. I think this one gonna be the reason why the bubble pop in the future if there's any.
A contender in chip that provides more efficient and lower cost computing tailored for AI that can become a difficult competitior for NVIDIA and can be the cause for the NVIDIA stock to dump so hard.

There's also the bubble in the AI sector. They're overpriced, the agents that are being sold and we'll see that when most of these huge investors have come to realize that it's still going to be NVIDIA that's monopolizing even this industry. And employees of NVIDIA that would like to cash their stocks, would simply dump if this rise continues.

[Balmain]

It's not right to call it an AI bubble, but perhaps it's exaggerated, which is why they're attracting high investments. AI has now reached a point where it can access all data, and that's why some people say AI has nowhere else to go. Nvidia's GPU hardware may have so many buyers due to fear and anxiety, so as not to be left behind. New models were announced every week, but nothing truly significant was ever released.