Bitcoin found strong support near 80,000$ (BTC ↑?)

[Confounding]

Hello everyone,

Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the 80,000$ price level.

So, Bitcoin rebounded from the 80,000$ region after a sharp correction from its October ATH, with price holding above the average entry levels of key metrics. Also, the convergence of the TMM (stands for True Market Mean), U.S. ETF cost basis, and the 2024 yearly cost basis around the low 80,000$ range highlights this zone as a major area of structural support.

BTC has so far bounced above 90,000$, 15% higher from its Nov. 21 low of around 80,000$, with price finding confluence support across three important cost basis metrics; the TMM, average U.S. spot ETF cost basis and the 2024 yearly volume weighted cost basis.

The TMM
Firstly, the TMM, represents the average onchain purchase price of BTC held by active market participants. It focuses on coins that have moved recently, filtering out long dormant supply, and therefore reflects the cost basis of investors who are most likely to trade. During the pullback, the TMM sat near 81,000$ and acted as clear support (https://imgur.com/a/TOzdORA).

The average U.S. spot ETF cost basis
Secondly, the U.S. spot ETF cost basis reflects the weighted price at which BTC has flowed into U.S. listed spot ETFs. The average cost basis currently sits around 83,844$, and BTC once again bounced off this level, which it similarly did during the April tariff-driven selloff (https://imgur.com/a/llH1wsm).

The 2024 yearly cost basis
And the third metric, the 2024 yearly cost basis, tracks the average price at which coins acquired in 2024 were withdrawn from exchanges. The 2024 cost basis near 83,000$, according to checkonchain, provided additional confirmation of demand, again was also seen as support during the April correction (https://imgur.com/a/bnrWhlg).

These metrics highlight the depth of demand of support in the $80,000 region.
(source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/12/these-three-metrics-show-bitcoin-found-strong-support-near-usd80-000)
(source: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/pricing/pricing_yearlycostbasis/pricing_yearlycostbasis_light.html)
(source: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_aviv_1/mvrv_aviv_1_light.html)
(source: https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_average-cost-basis-of-us-spot-etf-deposits.png)

Looking forward to hear your opinions,
Confounding

[philipma1957]

hmm 80k price and the s21xp

lets look at the miners angle

at 90k he gets 3.78 cents x 270= $10.26

at 80k he gets 3.33 cents x 270 =   $9.07

both cases he burns 87.6 kwatts

10 cent power = $8.76 burned

so at 90k he makes a mere 10.26-8.76=$1.50

at 80k he makes a smaller   9.07-8.76= $0.29

I would say most mining is commercial
and maybe 6 cents is what they pay.

so maybe $5.25 burn for the s21xp and a gross profit of $5.01 for the 90k price

and a gross profit of $3.82 for the 80k price.


I know there are s21pros and s21 plus units running

so you can see for mining at commercial levels 80k is barely ok.

I wonder if we drop to 65k how long does it take to shake a lot of miners out.

[MusaMohamed]

Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the 80,000$ price level.

So, Bitcoin rebounded from the 80,000$ region after a sharp correction from its October ATH

I am thinking more about history, past market cycles, past Bitcoin corrections from ATHs to bottoms, as main parts of my accumulation plan for the coming bear market.

I understand that I can not time the market, can not identify the market bottom but I make my plan for DCA accumulation and also reserve a fund for intensive purchases around bottom price area. That bottom fund will be used together with another fund for DCA and around bottom area, I will start to use it for purchasing bitcoins.

I think in this bear market, Bitcoin will be corrected about 55% to 65% or maximum 70% from ATH and my bottom DCA purchases will start when Bitcoin price falls to about $60k or $57k.

[logfiles]

I am thinking more about history, past market cycles, past Bitcoin corrections from ATHs to bottoms, as main parts of my accumulation plan for the coming bear market.

I understand that I can not time the market, can not identify the market bottom but I make my plan for DCA accumulation and also reserve a fund for intensive purchases around bottom price area. That bottom fund will be used together with another fund for DCA and around bottom area, I will start to use it for purchasing bitcoins.

I think in this bear market, Bitcoin will be corrected about 55% to 65% or maximum 70% from ATH and my bottom DCA purchases will start when Bitcoin price falls to about $60k or $57k.

We are soon going to find out about this, especially now when the selling pressure is high. I am a bit certain that before we even see Christmas, the price might tumble past $80K, maybe towards the $74-75K region.

I don't if we shall have that full-blown bear market that we used to have in the past cycles now that we have new players in the game that keep buying those lows every time BTC tries to drop, but I don't think $80k will hold for long.

[Darker45]

I don't if we shall have that full-blown bear market that we used to have in the past cycles now that we have new players in the game that keep buying those lows every time BTC tries to drop, but I don't think $80k will hold for long.

We've already lost at least 30% from the ATH. By the looks of it, there are more downward movements in the coming months. It seems the new players who are buying the lows couldn't absorb the entire pressure. I'm bracing for around 60% correction. The bulls are barely breathing. Saylor's almost $1 billion purchase yesterday even failed to resuscitate them, didn't even trigger a short green.

I'm a bit curious though because I've read around 3 days ago that exchanges' supply has registered a new low. Could it be that OTC supply is overflowing?

[ancafe]

Hello everyone,
So, Bitcoin rebounded from the 80,000$ region after a sharp correction from its October ATH, with price holding above the average entry levels of key metrics. Also, the convergence of the TMM (stands for True Market Mean), U.S. ETF cost basis, and the 2024 yearly cost basis around the low 80,000$ range highlights this zone as a major area of structural support.

BTC has so far bounced above 90,000$, 15% higher from its Nov. 21 low of around 80,000$, with price finding confluence support across three important cost basis metrics; the TMM, average U.S. spot ETF cost basis and the 2024 yearly volume weighted cost basis.

The bounce back at $85,000 indicates weak support, and Bitcoin was only able to test $90,000 for a relatively short time. Now is the moment that could create price consolidation around $90,000. We may see Bitcoin unable to break above $100,000 by the end of this year. Some events influencing Bitcoin's upward trajectory may appear less consolidative, allowing downward momentum to remain strong enough to push the price to a certain point.

As for the exact price, it may be difficult to predict, as Michael Saylor's large purchase also does not indicate a strong consolidation for Bitcoin support to recover, and we may see Bitcoin price continue to test key structural support zones in the coming days or weeks before the new year.

[EluguHcman]

I don't if we shall have that full-blown bear market that we used to have in the past cycles now that we have new players in the game that keep buying those lows every time BTC tries to drop, but I don't think $80k will hold for long.

We've already lost at least 30% from the ATH. By the looks of it, there are more downward movements in the coming months. It seems the new players who are buying the lows couldn't absorb the entire pressure. I'm bracing for around 60% correction. The bulls are barely breathing. Saylor's almost $1 billion purchase yesterday even failed to resuscitate them, didn't even trigger a short green.

Honestly the current market exhibition feels disappointing as based on the 4 years post halving.
What the market is referencing is just unusual and analysts keep getting the market wrong on tracks as the market posses trajectory different benchmarks and so on, perching on different support levels in a correction dimensions of which we can not even give adequate analysis about the phase of volatilities.

I also think the market would had be weakened worse than it is with the 30% dropped from the ATH but is being energized with the continues aggressive buying of institutions.
I am still optimistic that the market will recover and the bull will do it justice based on the next in line (bullishness) attributes after posts halving events.

So as we are still not sure if we are still in the bull or not, if it could fall to 60% then I assume all hope of the bullishness is gone and take it with faith that we have gone bear.

[logfiles]

Honestly the current market exhibition feels disappointing as based on the 4 years post halving.

Why are you disappointed?
Bitcoin rose from around $16K from the previous bear market to $125K, How much is that in terms of percentage increase and how many coins have been able to do that?

I also think the market would had be weakened worse than it is with the 30% dropped from the ATH but is being energized with the continues aggressive buying of institutions

There is still time for the drop. Bear market just doesn't happen overnight. Give it until the end of next year to realize what is going on.

[buwaytress]

Same as philip, wondering when miners start saying enough is enough. Just maybe I was even thinking that would not be 65k.

They will be the true markers for me every time of just what true support is. Cal it unscientific but that's simplest logic for me, usually.

[logfiles]

Same as philip, wondering when miners start saying enough is enough. Just maybe I was even thinking that would not be 65k.

They will be the true markers for me every time of just what true support is. Cal it unscientific but that's simplest logic for me, usually.

Most small scale miner are either out of the game already or are about to give up. Others are probably just doing it for the love of Bitcoin or as a hobby. Mining has mostly gone to large scale companies unfortunately where they get cheap land, lower industrial electric tariffs, reduced cost of mining equipment since they preorder or buy in bulk, reduced taxes/tax cuts among other things
I saw a story of how large scale miners are acquiring large pieces of cheap land in Texas which means that it's still good business for them as of now until it is not maybe sometime in the future