World of confusion

[Oshosondy]

It is as usual, the world full of people that will say something, but as they are saying something, another people will be saying the opposite.

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over, example is CZ the former CEO of Binance. Another example is JPMorgan analyst that said no crypto winter coming. There have been more than 5 people that are well known that I know that have said this, but most of them said it earlier.

But as they are saying it, other people will be saying another thing. Example is this news that I have just read: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-politics-liquidity-10x-research. This is not the first of such news.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

[BlackHatCoiner]

The four year cycle is most likely dead, though. And I think it's been dead for a long time now, not just since the 2024 "bull run". I am not saying that there will never be a crypto winter again, but the expectation that it'll keep repeating what it did in 2013 and 2017 due to "halvings" is just futile. Most coins (95%) are mined, the halving has little effect. There is still leverage trading, but this is primarily affecting the short term, and with more institutional adoption, incidences like the FTX are more difficult to occur again.

Be skeptical, of course, and expect anything. But, I think we're entering a new era, more "boring" than the previous, where bitcoin just compounds annually while everything gets diluted when measured in sats. 

[aoluain]

Well the bottom line is nobody has a crystal ball looking into the future and I would
say those big name 'economists' are preaching primarily to aid their own market base.

because everyone is saying something different and others slight variations on that,
some people are going to be right because the market will react in one way or the
other.

Personally I dont listen to them so I dont necessarily care, the market will do its thing
and there is one thing for certain - the market changes, it cant keep going up or down
indefinitely.

[Stalker22]

Bitcoin has shown only a slight increase in value of approximately 18% since its last halving event.  There have been a number of analysts that are now beginning to speculate that this may be an indication of a change in Bitcoins trading behaviour and that we could see an extension of the typical four-year cycle of Bitcoin to five years in length.  The reasoning behind these new predictions include the continually growing amounts of institutional cash flow being used to trade Bitcoin, along with the increased volume of liquidity waves occurring within the current macroeconomic environment.  Therefore, due to the above-mentioned reasons, it looks like the new trend will provide Bitcoin with continued and steady growth, and thus the potential for a peak in 2026.  It should be very interesting to see what happens to Bitcoin by the year 2026, as only then we will have the clarity as to how these trends will evolve and where Bitcoin will go in the future.

[FirmWars]

Why do I have the feelings that some of these people forecasting Bitcoin price are doing so based on their feeling and not based on real facts, because it seems that all of them just want Bitcoin to surge by next year and must stand at the price which they want it to be. The 4 years cycle must have changed, perhaps Bitcoin was already at an ATH before the 2024 halving but that didn't happen in the previous cycles, but based on real facts we should also think that winter will come and nobody knows when that would be, it could be next year.

[salad daging]

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over, example is CZ the former CEO of Binance. Another example is JPMorgan analyst that said no crypto winter coming. There have been more than 5 people that are well known that I know that have said this, but most of them said it earlier.

There are always contradictions among these famous figures, they may have their own analysis so that they say so, and I would not be surprised if they contradict because this is only from their predictions, maybe they also make these predictions just spontaneously.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

The price returned to $70K then I said it had entered the bearish phase, so it is called crypto winter now it is indeed time because we have passed the bullish.

[Zaguru12]

Why do I have the feelings that some of these people forecasting Bitcoin price are doing so based on their feeling and not based on real facts, because it seems that all of them just want Bitcoin to surge by next year and must stand at the price which they want it to be. The 4 years cycle must have changed, perhaps Bitcoin was already at an ATH before the 2024 halving but that didn't happen in the previous cycles, but based on real facts we should also think that winter will come and nobody knows when that would be, it could be next year.

You don’t need to think because all this analysis are nothing other than emotional predictions because there is absolutely no real or future data to say bitcoin will do such and such all what we all have is the historical data which we saw had a deviation this year. If you see most people that actually predict that the market will increase and give some unrealistic predictions those are people who hold and are looking for profit that’s why there own predictions is that the market will rise, while haters are predicting heavily of the market fall.

For me I align for now that the historical data isn’t broken yet even though the current market trend will actually suggest that, I expect it to go against more historical trends before I fully say its actually broken for now.

[philipma1957]

Why do I have the feelings that some of these people forecasting Bitcoin price are doing so based on their feeling and not based on real facts, because it seems that all of them just want Bitcoin to surge by next year and must stand at the price which they want it to be. The 4 years cycle must have changed, perhaps Bitcoin was already at an ATH before the 2024 halving but that didn't happen in the previous cycles, but based on real facts we should also think that winter will come and nobody knows when that would be, it could be next year.

Why winter?

To what purpose or reason does it always have to happen.

I would argue sideways with an upwards bias could be a 4-6 year trend.

Time will tell.

[m2017]

It is as usual, the world full of people that will say something, but as they are saying something, another people will be saying the opposite.

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over, example is CZ the former CEO of Binance. Another example is JPMorgan analyst that said no crypto winter coming. There have been more than 5 people that are well known that I know that have said this, but most of them said it earlier.

But as they are saying it, other people will be saying another thing. Example is this news that I have just read: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-politics-liquidity-10x-research. This is not the first of such news.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

There are as many different opinions as there are people, often radically opposed. Who should we believe and whose opinion should we listen to? It's unclear. More precisely, none of them know for sure what will happen next with the crypto market. But I'm more inclined to believe that we're already entering the initial stage of a bearish trend, and I highly doubt (despite some speculating about a possible rebound bitcoin higher) that there will be a significant uptrend before the start of the next bullish trend. The market can't grow forever and needs to "gain strength" for the next stage of growth. And right now (in the near future), it looks like a gradual decline will occur. I think only an extraordinary event in the industry could reverse the trend, a very "powerful and influential" event.

[shinratensei_]

Why do I have the feelings that some of these people forecasting Bitcoin price are doing so based on their feeling and not based on real facts, because it seems that all of them just want Bitcoin to surge by next year and must stand at the price which they want it to be. The 4 years cycle must have changed, perhaps Bitcoin was already at an ATH before the 2024 halving but that didn't happen in the previous cycles, but based on real facts we should also think that winter will come and nobody knows when that would be, it could be next year.

To be honest, i'm sure it's always by feeling and the data is there to validate their feeling. There is no amount of data that can help determine what is gonna happen in the future for sure when we are talking about bitcoin. The price action is too convoluted to make a one absolute prediction.
Some people might said 4 year cycle doesn't exist anymore, some might said the opposite. At the end of the day nobody know. Even people's opinion change with the sentiment of the market. Every time a big dump came in people kept saying bullish is over, market recovered back and everybody say we are so back.

Thats just how market works, the entire market filled with people that have different minds and opinions after all. These research about the four year cycle is just a guess. As for me I have the opinion that if bitcoin's cyclical gain diminished because the price is so high already, it means the pullback will be diminished in the same manner.

[coinrifft]

We still don't know and for sure there are still Bitcoin enthusiast who says that there will be no crypto winter. But the thing with Bitcoin's history, although fairly young is that it proved otherwise. Every 4 years we have the halving, and this event marks the cycle itself. So we can debate moving forward, but for me I think it will still hold and that we might be really in the bear season already just like in 2021 wherein after hitting $69k, the prices slowly declined. And the same is said, there will be no winter we will continue to 6 digits. But it didn't happen and it took another cycle to hit that $100k. So it's just history repeating itself.

[LogitechMouse]

It is as usual, the world full of people that will say something, but as they are saying something, another people will be saying the opposite.
---
Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

That just shows that whether they're an owner of a huge exchange, or a bank owner, they're predictions are just as accurate as Average Joes like you and me. 50-50. They can put an explanation to their prediction just so that it will be more credible, and more plausible to the public, but it's just as accurate as our prediction so what's the difference?

What some believe is that, if we go below $74,000, that will be the start of the bear market or winter season or whatever we want to call about it, but for me, ever since we closed below the 50 Weekly MA and stayed below it for quite some time already, that's a sign that we are already in a bear market. What more signs do we need to see in order to say that we are in a bear market already? These big people are just confusing us retail traders and investors so that we will lose our money along the way, and of course, they have lots of followers so some of them will lose their money, and they will not be accountable for their followers' losses.

[Hewlet]

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

The nature of bitcoin is one that you can not outrightly predict and this is the reason why we will continue to have all this kind of speculations that it authenticity will only be ascertained after a specific period of time. Like what happened during the last bitcoin circle, a lot of speculation came up as the period approached but at the end, we eventually saw a bull even before the circle finally came. What did that teach us? It teaches us that you can make your speculation as much as you want to buy at the end, what will happen is eventually going to be what will happen.

The four year circle doesn't look like what will be taking the form it use to take in the early years of bitcoin because to an extent, there's still other factors that are collectively contributing to the volatility of bitcoin other than the effect of bitcoin halving.

[Cryptohygenic]

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

And more confusion there is that those who would get it right by the next year had sometimes said the opposite before speculating on the other side. So after much being disappointed with there so analytical professionalisms skills, it all feels like some kind of market entertainments where no one knowledgeability about studying the phase and short term volatilities of bitcoin can be reliable.
So don't even think those who will get it right at the clock of the time is genus. They are just lucky like the traders who assumes irrationally while their faiths are not strong enough to be rely on.

[suhadi88]

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

And more confusion there is that those who would get it right by the next year had sometimes said the opposite before speculating on the other side. So after much being disappointed with there so analytical professionalisms skills, it all feels like some kind of market entertainments where no one knowledgeability about studying the phase and short term volatilities of bitcoin can be reliable.
So don't even think those who will get it right at the clock of the time is genus. They are just lucky like the traders who assumes irrationally while their faiths are not strong enough to be rely on.

I don't think the correction will be as deep as the figures mentioned above. BTC's current price is $86,300, and even if it were to plummet further, some would still hold on.

This situation is simply the result of post-interest rate cut rumors and analysis presented in several media posts, which have caused some people to panic and sell as a precaution, not an unreasonable dump. This is only a temporary drop before a reversal, as I've read that BTC will rebound to $104,000.

[Oshosondy]

I don't think the correction will be as deep as the figures mentioned above. BTC's current price is $86,300, and even if it were to plummet further, some would still hold on.

Bitcoin may not be down to such a price but there is nothing impossible, it is what that can happen within a short period not time. We are going to see what will happen by next year. I hope what these people are saying will be true, but many people are expecting the winter season.

This situation is simply the result of post-interest rate cut rumors and analysis presented in several media posts, which have caused some people to panic and sell as a precaution, not an unreasonable dump. This is only a temporary drop before a reversal, as I've read that BTC will rebound to $104,000.

Post interest rate cut rumour? Did you know that there was rate cut last week? The market did not really react to it. Also after rate cut, what that supposed to happen is the price to increase as people should expect more people to buy bitcoin at the time.

[iamsange]

I don't think the correction will be as deep as the figures mentioned above. BTC's current price is $86,300, and even if it were to plummet further, some would still hold on.
This situation is simply the result of post-interest rate cut rumors and analysis presented in several media posts, which have caused some people to panic and sell as a precaution, not an unreasonable dump. This is only a temporary drop before a reversal, as I've read that BTC will rebound to $104,000.

The BTC price will return to normal and for now it's actually at $86. For those who have invested heavily this will certainly be a matter of patience. There's no need to panic or anything else. What we need to think about right now is staying consistent with our personal principles so we don't need to sell at the current price. Even if we have funds saved, it's better to buy again when the Bitcoin price is declining.

Regardless of the Christmas celebrations the price will certainly reverse again as it did in mid-October when the figure was at $110 or even more than we mentioned earlier so we don't need to worry when the BTC price drops occasionally like it is now. It's a very normal thing for those of us who are involved in this Bitcoin forum so we don't need to listen to what is conveyed by the news that is indeed the news that does not convince our beliefs about Bitcoin.

[rbynxx]

People have something to say but it doesn't mean that they will always be right. I'd probably mind my own business if we all just be hearing these kind of things ven if it came from huge people we know in crypto. That's why it's best to limit the noise especially to an uncertain market like we are witnessing right now. I'd be better watch the data over someone claiming "this" or "that" statement.

[As-Soon-As]

It is difficult to say exactly what will happen to the price of Bitcoin in the future, but what we can say is only a guess. We are moving towards a bear market, as the Bitcoin price is coming to an end of its bull season, so the price of Bitcoin is naturally correcting. However, if the price of Bitcoin corrects in the Bitcoin market, the demand for buying by investors will increase, because investors will then buy more Bitcoin to increase their holdings. In this case, if the price of Bitcoin corrects, it will be winter for investors.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over...

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

That is the crossroads we find ourselves at. The 4-year cycle might be over, but some say that this is because the price depends not so much on halvings, but on liquidity, and that therefore, as we recover liquidity, the price will recover. Meanwhile, we may think that the cycles as we knew them are over, but this is because the market cap is so high and so many institutional actors have entered the market that the price does not have to follow the patterns of previous years.

With this second view, we could have reached the maximum price until the next halving, similar to gold, which has had very good periods but has also had many years of poor returns.