The line between lost and hodl

[ColdLava40]

The 21 million hard cap is the most famous number in finance, but the reality of Bitcoin’s economy is far more restricted. While the protocol dictates how many coins can be mined, the Invisible Burn dictates how many actually exist in the marketplace. Current estimates suggest that between 3.7 and 5 million BTC, nearly a quarter of the total supplyhave remained motionless for over a decade..

This massive block of dormant capital represents a forced scarcity that fundamentally alters the supply and demand equation, pushing Bitcoin’s valuation higher by effectively removing millions of coins from the table forever.

The line between a coin being lost and being held is often impossible to see until a wallet suddenly stirs. Many of these addresses belong to early adopters from the pioneer era who mined when Bitcoin was worth pennies. Their silence for over ten years isn't just a strategy, it’s a testament to a level of conviction that is rare in today’s attention driven market. Meanwhile, modern investors often flaunt their holdings to gain social influence. but then the original Ghost Whales have remained invisible, their wealth growing into billions while they stay in the shadows.

the lost category also includes the tragic side of digital sovereignty. This supply includes coins belonging to individuals who have passed away, those serving long prison sentences, and those who simply discarded an old hard drive in 2011, unaware they were throwing away a future fortune. In a traditional banking system, that money would eventually be reclaimed or redistributed.(We have seen this several times).In Bitcoin, that supply is effectively deleted. This creates a permanent supply shock. as global demand for Bitcoin grows, it is chasing a circulating supply that is much smaller than the headlines suggest..

The most fascinating moments occur when the assumed dead wallets wake up. From time to time, a Satoshi era wallet that hasn't moved a single satoshi in 10 years suddenly broadcasts a transaction to a new address. These awakenings tell us that the lost millions are not just a static number... they are a living part of the bitcoin economic story. When an ancient address moves its coins, it proves that the strongest hands in history are still here, and it reminds the market that every dormant coin is a ticking clock of potential value. this mix of intentional holding and accidental loss has turned Bitcoin into a net deflationary asset, where the scarcity is not just a code, but a consequence of human history.


References: https://youtu.be/mibQ1O4bxgYsi=VaIqjWVlJ1fHeQym
Bitcoin's Invisible Burn: Lost Coins Outpace New Supply

[MusaMohamed]

The 21 million hard cap is the most famous number in finance

Why 21M hard cap is most famous number in finance?
Could you share any link and discussion about this famous number, especially in finance?

The most fascinating moments occur when the assumed dead wallets wake up. From time to time, a Satoshi era wallet that hasn't moved a single satoshi in 10 years suddenly broadcasts a transaction to a new address. These awakenings tell us that the lost millions are not just a static number... they are a living part of the bitcoin economic story.

It is used for creating both hype and panic but if you understand well about Bitcoin and are experienced in Bitcoin market, you don't mind about the exact figure of how many bitcoins lost, and how many inactive bitcoins will wake up in the future.

You know that there are lost bitcoins and this means Bitcoin circulating supply will be less than 21M, it's enough without need of knowing whether there will be 20M or 19M bitcoins in accessible circulating supply after 2140 year.

Lost bitcoins, if actually lost forever, are lost for those holders in the past, but are gifts for us in the present and in the future, as lost bitcoins make bitcoin more scarce and helpful for Bitcoin value and price.

Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever

[Cryptomultiplier]

The line between lost and HODL is an invincible line that only the holder knows or may have initiated and it does automatically enter a Hodling investment and is long forgotten or remains dormant but with steady input.
Ever wonder why we see whale movements that no one knew existed until the final minutes and that's how it is and going to be for large holders, not those coins that have been lost and can't be accessible due to misplaced key phrases.
The lost numbers are a part of the 21million coins to be mined and it is a fact, it is still there on the Blockchain but there's no access to it.

[qurbanshah02]

The line between lost and HODL is an invincible line that only the holder knows or may have initiated and it does automatically enter a Hodling investment and is long forgotten or remains dormant but with steady input.
Ever wonder why we see whale movements that no one knew existed until the final minutes and that's how it is and going to be for large holders, not those coins that have been lost and can't be accessible due to misplaced key phrases.
The lost numbers are a part of the 21million coins to be mined and it is a fact, it is still there on the Blockchain but there's no access to it.

They know this, so they HODL, if we don't do it like this, then you also know how we will invest in it. I believe that HODL is better and this is more investment in Bitcoin. If a person is not patient with it, then he goes towards loss and that is why he later learns how to get more profit for himself. But at that time, the price time in which he has taken a loss has passed. That is because they know how Bitcoin can be operated and they have a sufficient number of Bitcoins and therefore Whales will not want to take any risk and reduce the price of Bitcoin or take a loss. It is obvious that when there is access to it even after having so many coins, it spoils the reputation of Bitcoin and it has been successful for so many years, it would not have happened.

[passwordnow]

The most fascinating moments occur when the assumed dead wallets wake up.

Not that fascinating to be honest because when a wallet moves from being assumed of dead for so long or simply being dormant, that's thought of being sold in the market. But when this is done in the fiats and long term bank accounts that have been dormant, the banks are going to deduct from the balance. The advantage is in holding bitcoin for so long, no policies of dormancy accounts and deduction from its balance. And what actually happens in the opposite for which is causes more value because of the 4 year cycle.

[Yaunfitda]

The most fascinating moments occur when the assumed dead wallets wake up.

Not that fascinating to be honest because when a wallet moves from being assumed of dead for so long or simply being dormant, that's thought of being sold in the market. But when this is done in the fiats and long term bank accounts that have been dormant, the banks are going to deduct from the balance. The advantage is in holding bitcoin for so long, no policies of dormancy accounts and deduction from its balance. And what actually happens in the opposite for which is causes more value because of the 4 year cycle.

Perhaps when we thought that it's already a dead wallet, then suddenly it moves specially those wallet in the Satoshi era, so that's where the fascination comes in as everyone has it's own opinion or speculation as to who is the owner of that wallet. And we have seen it already, millions and billions of dollars moving but we all know that it's just a Bitcoin address and so there is no name attached to it. So definitely, those are diamond hands, didn't move in 10 years or so. But one day those holders wake up and just decided to move to it another wallet or just sold off everything because they decided to buy something or started a business.

[joniboini]

The 21 million hard cap is the most famous number in finance

Why 21M hard cap is most famous number in finance?
Could you share any link and discussion about this famous number, especially in finance?

I've checked OP OP-linked sources, and I can't tell which part claims that 21 million is a hard cap in finances. I mean, mentioning a hard cap is already quite limiting. If anything, those sources are saying what most of us already know, which is that  Bitcoin's 21 million supply limit isn't actually 21 million. Either OP used the wrong wording, or he paraphrased it badly.

[snowpega]

Perhaps when we thought that it's already a dead wallet, then suddenly it moves specially those wallet in the Satoshi era, so that's where the fascination comes in as everyone has it's own opinion or speculation as to who is the owner of that wallet. And we have seen it already, millions and billions of dollars moving but we all know that it's just a Bitcoin address and so there is no name attached to it. So definitely, those are diamond hands, didn't move in 10 years or so. But one day those holders wake up and just decided to move to it another wallet or just sold off everything because they decided to buy something or started a business.

Actually mate, when those dormant or dead wallets get back alive and throw millions or billions into the market, then they create a panic condition, not because they bring big capital into the market to sell; the main reason is that they are OG wallets that have been sleeping for too long, and their activity shows that there is something wrong being cooked secretly, and this thing disturbs other investors, and that becomes the reason why investors start to exit from the market for their safe play.

And as a result, the market then becomes converted into the red colour. Then seeing all these condition holders like us I mean, that do not have a big capital start to get panic and fall prey to the game of FOMO that is always started by big whales. This is just my point of view. CMIIW! What do you think about it? Must share your opinion on this.

[pooya87]

The 21 million hard cap is the most famous number in finance,

Considering that bitcoin has not yet reached mass adoption, its 21 million cap is as unknown a bitcoin itself to majority of people.

Current estimates suggest that between 3.7 and 5 million BTC, nearly a quarter of the total supplyhave remained motionless for over a decade..

Usually those who "guess" the number of lost coins are simply counting the UTXOs that have not moved for a certain number of years. I say this to everyone who makes these claims: I started with bitcoin back in 2014 and I have small amount of coins from those years that I have not moved for 11 years. While I still own the keys, these "guessers" count my coins as lost.

Their silence for over ten years isn't just a strategy, it’s a testament to a level of conviction that is rare in today’s attention driven market.

Another problem with these guesses is that they guess that an early day miner only owns the coins that are not moved and didn't own anything else! In other words if they haven't moved dozens of 50BTC rewards from early blocks, they may have already moved a single block reward that is worth almost $4.5 million. Do they need to move all their coins? Not really. Therefore the rest are untouched and that doesn't show "conviction" of any kind...

Meanwhile, modern investors often flaunt their holdings to gain social influence.

I disagree. Investors don't do that ever. Those who are doing it, are the attention seekers and those silly social media kids who seek followers and views so they can make money from that traffic. These are not investors.

In any case, I have to say although the capped supply and the subsequent scarcity is an important characteristic of Bitcoin, but the more important thing to analyze is adoption because without adoption, none of that means anything. You can see that in altcoins with less supply than bitcoin that have no adoption, therefore they have a much lower value and constantly dumping until they die.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

Usually those who "guess" the number of lost coins are simply counting the UTXOs that have not moved for a certain number of years. I say this to everyone who makes these claims: I started with bitcoin back in 2014 and I have small amount of coins from those years that I have not moved for 11 years. While I still own the keys, these "guessers" count my coins as lost.

Similarly, people gussed total bitcoins owned by the Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto.

What they got is a figure which is definitely not accurate and an actual bitcoins owned by Satoshi Nakamoto can be bigger or smaller than their gussed figure. Their guessing and estimating work are based on big assumptions that earliest Bitcoin blocks and used Bitcoin addressed are owned by Satoshi Nakamoto while we never know the fact about it.

Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings now on Arkham.
Was Satoshi Nakamoto a greedy miner?
The return of the deniers and the revenge of Patoshi.
Satoshi ‘s Fortune: a more accurate figure.

[rat03gopoh]

In a traditional banking system, that money would eventually be reclaimed or redistributed.(We have seen this several times).In Bitcoin, that supply is effectively deleted.

How is it technically deleted? I think it simply tightens the market supply and reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity. However, Bitcoin in dormant addresses remains a source of price speculation, even though the effective supply is likely far below the actual amount.

The only coins that are considered permanently removed from circulation are those sent to a burn address.

[bhadz]

I guess that even satoshi's estimated 1M bitcoins that's assumed to be lost forever can still wake up all of a sudden. Even if the world decides and declares that it's gone forever, we'll never know. With all of those dormant accounts that have woke up during the bull run, that only tells one thing and that is possible for every wallet that has been stuck for so long. And we'll never know that those classified wallets/bitcoins that were lost forever, as long as the owner or the person who has accessed in it all of a sudden opens and transfers from that wallet becomes a headline that causes panic.

[ColdLava40]

How is it technically deleted?

When I say technically deleted from supply, I don't mean it's deleted in some what ctrl delete button or seize to exist.. they become technically dormant and no longer in supply and like you said, only contributes to bitcoins value through scarcity..

The only coins that are considered permanently removed from circulation are those sent to a burn address.

I do consider lost coins as burned because actually they just cannot be spent and remains dormant on the network. It almost same thing, the only difference is one is done intentionally and the other isn't.

Meanwhile, modern investors often flaunt their holdings to gain social influence.

I disagree. Investors don't do that ever. Those who are doing it, are the attention seekers and those silly social media kids who seek followers and views so they can make money from that traffic. These are not investors.

You mean some don't? We've seen many stories this year that would probably back my point.. one way or the other a few number of them flaunts their holdings on their social media pages. This in a way direct attention to them and also make them targets online.

[rat03gopoh]

I do consider lost coins as burned because actually they just cannot be spent and remains dormant on the network. It almost same thing, the only difference is one is done intentionally and the other isn't.

It's in circulation, not burned; neither you, nor I, nor Satoshi can be certain that the owner has lost access. Or, in the scenario where you lose the metal plaque containing your private keys in the middle of the ocean, and Jack Sparrow finds it 30 years later and accesses your bitcoins and spent it.

Dormant and burned are technically different things.

[JiiBs]

The line between a coin being lost and being held is often impossible to see until a wallet suddenly stirs. Many of these addresses belong to early adopters from the pioneer era who mined when Bitcoin was worth pennies. Their silence for over ten years isn't just a strategy, it’s a testament to a level of conviction that is rare in today’s attention driven market. Meanwhile, modern investors often flaunt their holdings to gain social influence. but then the original Ghost Whales have remained invisible, their wealth growing into billions while they stay in the shadows.

Well, someone dug up a City’s waste dump site in search for his hard drive that have been lost for over a decade and still got nothing. Surely, he made headlines with his actions to reunite with his lost hard drive and lost Bitcoins even with it not in hand.

People could still get famous with Bitcoin even without owning any at the moment and still stir for reactions.

The Whales that remain silent might be doing so not because they don’t like attention but, might as well be avoiding what comes with attention as we know, you can’t get one without the later. Meanwhile, attention seeking whales could always have an underlying goal that affects weak hands.

[SamReomo]

It's in circulation, not burned; neither you, nor I, nor Satoshi can be certain that the owner has lost access.

The coins that are lost are the ones that are not part of circulation if I'm not wrong, they're just inactive coins where no activity has been shown, it means to transactions or trading of such coins whatsoever. On the other hand the coins that are in circulation are the ones that we all trade on daily basis and it's because of those coins the market is active.

There're surely people who could be considered as strong hands whom we call masters of patience and hope because they've been holding their Bitcoin for quite long but also there are those who've lost access to their wallets and to private keys and seed phrases and such can be call as unlucky fellows.

[rat03gopoh]

It's in circulation, not burned; neither you, nor I, nor Satoshi can be certain that the owner has lost access.

The coins that are lost are the ones that are not part of circulation if I'm not wrong, they're just inactive coins where no activity has been shown, it means to transactions or trading of such coins whatsoever. On the other hand the coins that are in circulation are the ones that we all trade on daily basis and it's because of those coins the market is active.

Trading isn't always publicly visible; that's what cexs do; and all cexs have cold wallets that haven't been spent for years. This should be referred to as "no activity/trading" if your analogy holds.
There's no such thing as lost coins; they're recorded on the blockchain as spendable UTXOs. The OP means the owner lost access, but there's always the possibility that they could be accessed again in the future, either by the original owner or someone else. Any mined coins other than those sent to a burn address or locked by the protocol are spendable (in circulation supply).

This article explains circulating supply, total supply, and max. supply well. https://arongroups.co/crypto-articles/circulating-total-max-supply/

[henry_of_skalitz]

I do consider lost coins as burned because actually they just cannot be spent and remains dormant on the network. It almost same thing, the only difference is one is done intentionally and the other isn't.

It's in circulation, not burned; neither you, nor I, nor Satoshi can be certain that the owner has lost access. Or, in the scenario where you lose the metal plaque containing your private keys in the middle of the ocean, and Jack Sparrow finds it 30 years later and accesses your bitcoins and spent it.

Dormant and burned are technically different things.

I agree.

Burning is doing it by design or / and choice.

Dormant coins are not like this..

[Cookdata]

Actually mate, when those dormant or dead wallets get back alive and throw millions or billions into the market, then they create a panic condition, not because they bring big capital into the market to sell; the main reason is that they are OG wallets that have been sleeping for too long, and their activity shows that there is something wrong being cooked secretly, and this thing disturbs other investors, and that becomes the reason why investors start to exit from the market for their safe play.

And as a result, the market then becomes converted into the red colour. Then seeing all these condition holders like us I mean, that do not have a big capital start to get panic and fall prey to the game of FOMO that is always started by big whales. This is just my point of view. CMIIW! What do you think about it? Must share your opinion on this.

It make sense then when old wallet moves a wallet for people to panic but it has becomes a traditional manipulation. Why are afraid of the market when an old wallet sold their Bitcoin investment thag are worth just some millions but the same millions worth of Bitcoin are been sold on OTC and on chain like nothing happen. Why sell your coin or panic when the market dump only to pump the following day, seems some people don't know how market makers manipulate them.

We don't pay attention to the scary things that happened in the market enough, the Bitcoin sold by some exchanges are worth billions almost every week. Binance has been accused of dumping Bitcoin when Bitcoin was trading around $110k but I think it pays more when attention are given to 50 Bitcoin that are mined in the early blocks. It will make more sense how people are going to react by the time Strategy feels like selling one or two Bitcoin, because he said he is not selling doesn't make him Satoshi, the company gave some obligations to settle one day in the future.

[pooya87]

Meanwhile, modern investors often flaunt their holdings to gain social influence.

I disagree. Investors don't do that ever. Those who are doing it, are the attention seekers and those silly social media kids who seek followers and views so they can make money from that traffic. These are not investors.

You mean some don't? We've seen many stories this year that would probably back my point.. one way or the other a few number of them flaunts their holdings on their social media pages. This in a way direct attention to them and also make them targets online.

Yeah, well I wouldn't all them "investors" just because they had put some money into some asset(s). They are just inexperienced people with money making bets on random stuff they think is hot.