The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[SirChiko]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

So you won't live in stereotype?

[MICRO]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

[maker88]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

[maker88]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

[Wilhelm]

Having two houses on different hemispheres gives you permanent summer or winter, whatever creams your twinkie

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

[bitcoinsrus]

keep updating brah, i am interested. great posts

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

In fact, we will know within 10-15 days, at which point the price will hit the red velocity trendline. In all of its price history, Bitcoin has never accelerated faster than this line which means if we don't start going up at or before it, the July 'bubble' is a pipe dream.

edit: ...assuming the bubble peak is at $4,900.

Exciting times ahead...

[Arghhh]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA seems to think like this:

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

TERA needs to take anti-depressants.

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA seems to think like this:

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

TERA needs to take anti-depressants.

Nice finds!

[BitChick]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  

See thread: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=294625.msg3165590#msg3165590

[bitcoinsrus]

(just made this meme for fun)

[JulieFig]

(just made this meme for fun)

I'm sure this will get picked up and tossed around soon enough .

[Arghhh]

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  

See thread: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=294625.msg3165590#msg3165590

I just added that chart to my TARA-bear macro.

[BitchicksHusband]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Hey, I had to sell some this month too in order to pay my car payment.  If you gotta, you gotta.

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

[zimmah]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

I believe the best time to buy houses is during a currency collapse. So we'd need to wait a while before the dollar and euro collapse and than buy houses and other assets with gold/silver/bitcoin and than wait for the price to rise before selling them.

Renting them is also an option for a sustained income.

[Joe200]

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

Could you please post the dates of the peaks and how exactly you define a peak?

By my count, there have been six peaks as well. However, the number of days between peaks that I've identified has ranged from 99 (2010-11-07 to 2011-02-14) all the way to 664 (2011-06-09 to 2013-04-09).

PS. Cool graph. How did you generate it?

[Raystonn]

We all love this chart and hope it comes to fruition.  But I must point out that the bottom line is just a copy of the top line's slope fit to touch a single low.  This doesn't make it a particularly strong channel.  The bottom line may not have the same slope.