[XMR] Monero Speculation

[s1gs3gv]

Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.

This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat.

Strange times in alt land.

[smoothie]

Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.

This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat.

Strange times in alt land.

1. I'm pleased that Monero is not pumping to the moon just because...

and

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

Hopefully the market is steady and not going into pump and dump mode.

[s1gs3gv]

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels.

[smoothie]

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels.

Can't argue with that.

My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply.

Dash is a perfect example of this.

[s1gs3gv]

Dash is a perfect example of this.

the mcafee effect ~LOL~

[aerbax]

(xpost from the main Monero thread)

Looks like the Monero StackExchange "site" may open to the public tomorrow (8/9) (that's today for some of you)!

(This will probably only work for those of you in the private beta)
Link: http://meta.monero.stackexchange.com/questions/42/where-can-we-check-how-long-until-monero-is-in-private-beta/44#44

If you're NOT in the beta, I've got a screenshot available:
https://hellomonero.com/article/could-monero-stackexchange-site-open-public-tomorrow

Congrats to all who participated!

[bitebits]

My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply.
Dash is a perfect example of this.

the McAfee effect ~LOL~

You mean preventing it from spreading like a virus? Can't oppose.

But to be serious, highly agree with smoothie. Limiting supply may be increasing the price of the few coins actually being traded, but it is artificial and bad for liquidity. The market would be very thin for buying or selling any serious amount.

[smoothie]

As of my comment right now, 1 XMR is 1/10th the price of 1 oz of silver.

[nioc]

There has been discussion from time to time in regards to getting XMR on other exchanges for a) diversity and b) exposure on bigger markets.  The status quo has resulted in us fulfilling b).

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

[Eidheen]

Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels.  Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread!  XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again.  I like it.

[explorer]

Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels.  Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread!  XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again.  I like it.

Nice quote.  You should credit me for the writing of it, at least.

[dEBRUYNE]

The Monero StackExchange is now in Public Beta!

https://monero.stackexchange.com/

[aminorex]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

[Tommyhurley]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Exactly for this reason I bought 2500 XMR extra earlier today. I'm done now - apparently miners are not selling anthing below [x?] USD

[Bassica]

I never really feel I have enough. Every paycheck adds some xmr to the stash

[ArticMine]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Market making with a crypto currency like Monero can be very trough. As you correctly point out the market is going to have to find the appropriate levels after the GUI, and also after RingCT/multisig.

Edit: There is also the question of 0.0042-0.0043 XBT levels form a technical perspective. Monero has been in a trading range from 0.0009-0.0043 XBT since August 2014. A breakout from this trading range could be very sharp. 

[aminorex]

[aminorex]

As I see it, in 5 days, the bfx btc balances become eligible for transfer, at which time I expect some to flow into XMR.  It seemed like about 5% of DAO panic funds ended up in XMR.  Maybe 100kBTC flees bfx on Sunday, and about 0.5% (SWAG) of that flows into XMR, moving market cap by about 12%.

Totally wild guesses on those numbers, though.

[smoothie]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Market making with a crypto currency like Monero can be very trough. As you correctly point out the market is going to have to find the appropriate levels after the GUI, and also after RingCT/multisig.

Edit: There is also the question of 0.0042-0.0043 XBT levels form a technical perspective. Monero has been in a trading range from 0.0009-0.0043 XBT since August 2014. A breakout from this trading range could be very sharp. 

Most of the users that post in this thread probably would agree (they can chime in, perhaps I am wrong in my assumption) that "finding" the price is implicit that the price could fall as well, which it could.

I suspect good news such as more usability with a GUI and better privacy features with RingCT will net a higher found price than as of late.

Just my two cents.

[smoothie]

As I see it, in 5 days, the bfx btc balances become eligible for transfer, at which time I expect some to flow into XMR.  It seemed like about 5% of DAO panic funds ended up in XMR.  Maybe 100kBTC flees bfx on Sunday, and about 0.5% (SWAG) of that flows into XMR, moving market cap by about 12%.

Totally wild guesses on those numbers, though.

Or maybe people will get their BFX balances and transfer it out and have an epiphany to also draw their funds out of XMR too and go back to fiat funny munny.