[XMR] Monero Speculation

[MooneroShill]

Google searches for the term Monero and XMR went 5x after alphabay announcement.

Reddit subscribers increased from 10-20 per day to 100-150 per day.

Still think it smells like a fake pump? LoL  

[target]

How did this coin get to be on the spotlight these days? is there any new development?
I did invest to this coinback when it was yet 1.50USD now I'm regretting why i moved elsewhere

[canth]

The game is about how many you own and can keep in your possession. If you own 1000 BTC, you are well positioned, but it is expensive to gain that position if you start now. If you owned 1000 BTC five years ago, it is equally good as 1000 BTC now, only if you have managed to keep it from theft, hack, taxman, your own mistakes in storage, and most importantly from your urge to sell.

Many reading this have 1000 XMR, or even much more. In five years, or less, it might have equal value as 1000 BTC now. Statistically, an extremely small fraction of people manage to do it, though.

I believe it's prudent to budget in advance that half of the remaining coins are lost, every time the price rises x10. So the ones who wish to have the coveted 1000 XMR when the price hits $5k, should buy 10k now.

Hmm... it seems that XMR is more mature now than BTC when I heard of it. It has 50 times higher market cap as well...

I like this strategy. Lot of people might say "SELL NOW", price may go down, which is certainly a probable outcome. As for me, I decided I want to have X amount of Monero and I try to adhere around that number. There was a brief time I played the sell because I thought it would go lower, then ended up buying back higher, then the price went lower...personally I don't want that stress and it causes me to make bad decisions. This is the opposite advice some people would give you (don't get attached to any asset, etc). I think you can get attached as long as you ensure the decision is right for you.

Personally, I like a variation of buy and hold that rpietila discussed for Bitcoin awhile back: https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=345065.0

• Pick the number you want to hold long term.
• Buy 2 or 3x that much and sell 10% every time it doubles.
• Optionally buy back in on significant dips.

 This way you get to take some profits, you hold a meaningful amount long term and if you want to buy back in on the dips, you have the funds to do so. Although no investment is 100% stressfree, this method has worked for my holdings.

[birr]

I'm curious how a currency like XMR is allowed to trade on Polo. How can they comply with KYC and AML given the fundamentals of XMR?

Monero is optionally transparent.

Kind of like paper dollars.  I can tell the IRS how many dollars Ignatz gave me for that flugelhorn.  Same with monero.

[Febo]

Since XMR gained nearly 300% in value in a few days and seeing 100btc buywalls at 0,0080 on polo, i honestly can not believe in "natural" growth.
The fallback will probably be as fast and deep as the upleg.

Monero gained 300% in value in a few months. (0.0021-0.0085)
In few days it gained 100% (0.0042-0.0085)
and in few weeks gained 200% (0.0028-0.0085)

Yeah, well on Aug 14'th it was around  0,003 and yesterday it was around 0,009, so thats a few days or weeks  

14t august was 0.0032 . and that was a minimum same as was  a maximum 0.009. It is always hard to catch maximums and minimums, my posts used more normal since you could get coins easily at that price at that time.  If we took this 2 extremes in calculation we get. 180% raise in last 10 days.  If you were a super lucky trader. You need a time machine to actually make it happen.

[luigi1111]

So, this artificial pump is over in a few days and XMR will have time to consolidate until December back to 0.0018 - 0.0024
I hope you guys are selling your coins and getting them back in December, because this was a Marketmakerpump starting with somewhat 1000BTC and now ending slowly 

How is it artificial?

Care to provide proof of your claims?

Well it sure looked special, turning half of the existing XMR in 24 hours. Reminds me of the Mintpal pump.

That said, I believe much good was achieved regardless of anything. It is possible that this was the first real upleg. Or even if we fall back, I believe 420k will now be a strong support. Even going to 180-240k, nothing new there. Not many thought it possible to revisit 100k, yet even that happened!


The game is about how many you own and can keep in your possession. If you own 1000 BTC, you are well positioned, but it is expensive to gain that position if you start now. If you owned 1000 BTC five years ago, it is equally good as 1000 BTC now, only if you have managed to keep it from theft, hack, taxman, your own mistakes in storage, and most importantly from your urge to sell.

Many reading this have 1000 XMR, or even much more. In five years, or less, it might have equal value as 1000 BTC now. Statistically, an extremely small fraction of people manage to do it, though.

I believe it's prudent to budget in advance that half of the remaining coins are lost, every time the price rises x10. So the ones who wish to have the coveted 1000 XMR when the price hits $5k, should buy 10k now.

Hmm... it seems that XMR is more mature now than BTC when I heard of it. It has 50 times higher market cap as well...

Not much to add here. Why i believe this is an artificial pump by a marketmaker, is well explained by Risto already.
Since XMR gained nearly 300% in value in a few days and seeing 100btc buywalls at 0,0080 on polo, i honestly can not believe in "natural" growth.
The fallback will probably be as fast and deep as the upleg.

You seem to be interpreting Risto's post very strangely -- verging on fantasy even.

Risto is drawing the parallel to BTC in 2011 ie a pullback is still possible before another exponential increase.  He advises the complete opposite of what you propose ie buy and hold rather than trade your holding away.

And as Febo states, even your figures are wrong.

Everbody reads what he likes to read, so nothing new to me. Interpret the writing as you like, regardless if it's Ristos or mine.
My Figures are not wrong, weeks are filled with days, but i do not want to argue about peanuts.

If it smells like a Marketmakerpump, it tends to be a Marketmakerpump 

Your figures are wrong. If you don't want to argue/defend them, correct them. A few days != a few weeks. Also, when using "gained", you should reference the correct number -- that is, 200%, not 300%. 0.003 -> 0.009 is a 200% gain.

Of course there's a lot of irrational exuberance. There always is on large price rises. Trying to be a "voice of reason" while utilizing falsehoods is counterproductive, however.

[explorer]

Google searches for the term Monero and XMR went 5x after alphabay announcement.

Reddit subscribers increased from 10-20 per day to 100-150 per day.

Still think it smells like a fake pump? LoL  

These are the numbers that speak.  Awesome.

[smoothie]

...getting into deep thoughts about XMR actually replacing BTC in 4-5 years

Why, in the name of all that is holy, would anyone use bitcoin and expose themselves to extortionists, kidnappers, and thieves (governmental, NGO, and freelancers), when an alternative exists?  XMR is now the single most liquid alternative.  The market, through the mechanism of price, will act to insure that there is enough liquidity to meet demand.

How liquid would monero be without Poloniex?

There needs to be other exchanges like BTC-e or others that garner large portion of daily volumes.

What good is liquidity if it is all centralized and can evaporate if a single exchange gets hacked, shut down, etc?

[aminorex]

Trying to be a "voice of reason" while utilizing falsehoods is counterproductive, however.

So true.  Thank you for reminding me to be cautious not to speak beyond my epistemic basis, to qualify provisional and conditional statements appropriately, and to take care that my words do not readily admit a false interpretation.  (The last of those being by far the most difficult.)

Uber-bullish though.  Trying not to get caught off-sides again.  Once I can get a fill, I will be very cautious about future market-making.  Too many upside catalysts in the pipe right now.

[LiskKing]

someone change subject : Wall Observer XMR/USD - Monero price movement tracking & discussion

XMR deserve better thread name than monero speculation like every ALT coin


XMR HOLDER VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU

[cAPSLOCK]

If it smells like a Marketmakerpump, it tends to be a Marketmakerpump 

What's funny is you've picked exactly the one time a large price rise in Monero is certainly NOT a "marketmaker pump".

This rise was based on news.  But you can do you your own DD.

[Dafar]

Bad time to get into Monero?? 

[kaeste]

It depends of you. People're trying to fill their bags before 1 september as much as it's possible.

[TrueCryptonaire]

It depends of you. People're trying to fill their bags before 1 september as much as it's possible.

Yup, definetely demand will be here. However, I am not sure how long it takes until we can start to see Monero price rising and get finally Monero to the bullish trend (still ATH from 2014 is untouched).

[Dafar]

It depends of you. People're trying to fill their bags before 1 september as much as it's possible.

Yup, definetely demand will be here. However, I am not sure how long it takes until we can start to see Monero price rising and get finally Monero to the bullish trend (still ATH from 2014 is untouched).

Wasn't the ATH 0.01? It looks like it almost touched it

[LiskKing]

It depends of you. People're trying to fill their bags before 1 september as much as it's possible.

Yup, definetely demand will be here. However, I am not sure how long it takes until we can start to see Monero price rising and get finally Monero to the bullish trend (still ATH from 2014 is untouched).

Wasn't the ATH 0.01? It looks like it almost touched it

this looks to be true. I suspect we are gaining momentum to break that point. Makes sense to slow down here just before.

[rpietila]

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

[aminorex]

https://www.scribd.com/document/322004737/Bitfury-Shared-Send-Untangling-in-Bitcoin-20160821

[aminorex]

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult...

I think the correct bottom is the day the DNM news was announced to the general public.  This move is motivated by that informaiton, and its retrace is a retrace of that specific impulse.  It is the only gap that needed to be filled.  Retracement to .618 is 0.0075, to 0.500 is 0.0069 to 0.382 is 0.0064.  That is how my bids are placed, anyhow.  So far, only 0075 has filled.

The previous move was on inside information, and there will be no retrace of that move, because the number of participants was vanishingly small compared to the number participating in the public information move.

[rpietila]

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult...

I think the correct bottom is the day the DNM news was announced to the general public.  This move is motivated by that informaiton, and its retrace is a retrace of that specific impulse.  It is the only gap that needed to be filled.  Retracement to .618 is 0.0075, to 0.500 is 0.0069 to 0.382 is 0.0064.  That is how my bids are placed, anyhow.  So far, only 0075 has filled.

The previous move was on inside information, and there will be no retrace of that move, because the number of participants was vanishingly small compared to the number participating in the public information move.

What you say is clearly a possibility. However, technical analysis ignores fundamentals and news, insider information, and everything except price, and that alone. If someone is out of XMR, it might make sense to enter slowly even at the current price. But XMR's nature has been to visit the key price points (in this case 420k) repeatedly, so I am interested to see what happens