[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

They dumped all the way down to 0.013. Who would do that? And why? They could have sold for a much better price if they didnt do a massive market order dump.

Malice and/or incompetence.

Malice, in that Dash/Shadowcash trolling is successfully goading Monero haters into acting irrationally.  (If your enemy is quick to anger, provoke him.)

Incompetence, in that somebody's shorts were/are way underwater and they needed a spectacular drop to get out alive.

Funny thing is people still want to short this epic rally.  My loans are almost always taken seconds after being offered at competitive rates.

5k BTC buy gets us to 0.03 XMR.  See ya'll on the mooon!  

[nanobrain]

or am i just looking at this thing on a too short time-frame.

This.  And look forwards as well as backwards.

As has been quoted here a lot recently, in 2011 BTC had its first break out and many of the early adopters cashed out "we'll never see prices as high as $32" they said, especially after it went back down to $5. 

The reason Risto esp mentions this a lot is because the circumstances for XMR are both similar and better than those in 2011; that's why most of the old lags here are not selling.

Check out the registration date on my profile. I watched it all. Sitting patiently.

WoW!!  I imagine you have some wallets that bring tears to the eye.

And bravo on still being here and still helping people.

[aminorex]

Anon136 is a stalwart friend to all manner of meritorious crypto innovation.  I suspect he is trying to save the world as well, in a sense, but would expect him to deny it.

[Anon136]

or am i just looking at this thing on a too short time-frame.

This.  And look forwards as well as backwards.

As has been quoted here a lot recently, in 2011 BTC had its first break out and many of the early adopters cashed out "we'll never see prices as high as $32" they said, especially after it went back down to $5. 

The reason Risto esp mentions this a lot is because the circumstances for XMR are both similar and better than those in 2011; that's why most of the old lags here are not selling.

Check out the registration date on my profile. I watched it all. Sitting patiently.

WoW!!  I imagine you have some wallets that bring tears to the eye.

And bravo on still being here and still helping people.

Na. I was an idiot. I watched and learned. Not making those mistakes again.

[Anon136]

Anon136 is a stalwart friend to all manner of meritorious crypto innovation.  I suspect he is trying to save the world as well, in a sense, but would expect him to deny it.

[aminorex]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

[Mr. Shortypants]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.

What what? Good sir, I will have you know, I am well covered.

[aminorex]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.

What what? Good sir, I will have you know, I am well covered.

[Quoted for preciousness, although the "Brand new" label won't last.]

That being the case, well done. You might like to double-up now, to fulfill your destiny, Mr. Shortypants.  It's rinse, repeat until sept 1, by priors.

[nanobrain]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

Of course, that wall could be a genuine attempt to depress the price while quietly accumulating in the 150s.

[aminorex]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

Of course, that wall could be a genuine attempt to depress the price while quietly accumulating in the 150s.

Which is precisely what a short seller would be doing.  If that really was his break-even line or better, it worked.

[nanobrain]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

Of course, that wall could be a genuine attempt to depress the price while quietly accumulating in the 150s.

Which is precisely what a short seller would be doing.  If that really was his break-even line or better, it worked.

 I would have thought accumulating in the 150s meant MrSP would actually be hoping the price would rise at some point ie long

To be honest, I don't really do (or get) leveraged trade -- I'm rather old fashioned with regard to debt, borrowing and such -- so my trading approach is probably a bit simplistic in your eyes.

[birr]

Bid sum climbing again.  Hard to believe, but it's like water seeping into a hole.

I think it's because it takes people a while to figure out where and how to buy monero.  The demand is there, but makes its way only gradually onto the order book.
Unlike many altcoins, Monero isn't a brittle, zero-sum game played in a closed system.
The world is waking up to Monero.
That's why this rally has legs.

[Duomo]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

[nanobrain]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

@Duomo,  I'm not sure but it seems like you are picking a fight with capslock, who was actually supporting what you said.

[nanobrain]

SAR on the 15min has just flipped.

Glass of wine time.

[Duomo]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

@Duomo,  I'm not sure but it seems like you are picking a fight with capslock, who was actually supporting what you said.

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

[Cryptobro]

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

He's saying primer is/was 'full of shit' dude.

[nanobrain]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

@Duomo,  I'm not sure but it seems like you are picking a fight with capslock, who was actually supporting what you said.

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

Its not sarcasm.  His and he are pronouns referring to Primer.

If you really are sitting on 'millions', take care...

[primer-]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

I've been mining this shitcoin since its launch, at times I had more than 15% of total hash rate, currently its over 2%.  I must have sold well over 300k XMR so far, 46k i sold for 550btc was all that was left (sold 150k+ in September 2015 to buy Ethereum, currently holding 70,000 eth).

Ethereum will eventually release a ring signatures dapp, when that happens prepare for a mega dump

[rpietila]

Rpietila/Wise Ones do you still concider 0.01 level to be a realistic dump level? Or is the dump that low anymore possible. Monero has broken pretty much every scenario that i know or am i just looking at this thing on a too short time-frame.

Yes, I am a fan of support/resistance levels theory still, and Fibonacci levels also, and to some extent Elliot waves. And the most I like scenario/probability  analysis.

Let's revisit my "original" reactions to the sudden rise that followed the breaching of the .0042 resistance:

Well it sure looked special, turning half of the existing XMR in 24 hours. Reminds me of the Mintpal pump.

That said, I believe much good was achieved regardless of anything. It is possible that this was the first real upleg. Or even if we fall back, I believe 420k will now be a strong support. Even going to 180-240k, nothing new there. Not many thought it possible to revisit 100k, yet even that happened!

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

The speculator must take into account all price scenarios, and ensure that none of them is ruinous.

And then after the second breakout, making an ATH in the process:

What happened to waiting until the price drops to the .004s?

That was one very valid and probable scenario, considering XMR price history since the beginning.

Now, the likelihood of going back to 0.004 is not large anymore.

If someone has sold speculatively, or wants to enter, it might be better to buy than wait for an uncertain meagre drop in price.

The people who bought BTC at $7 did very well.

Why changed my mind so soon?

1. I did not. It was all scenario thinking all the time. This scenario leaves no prisoners so better adapt quickly.

2. The influx of so many new people in the scene, who do not know or care about me, proves the growth (and is liberating)

3. The volume was/is huge. At first I took it as proof of artificial manipulation, but now it's at least possible the volume is real growth. If so, we are still much behind the equilibrium value.


So going back to 0.004 is not very likely. After only a few hours after breaking the ATH, I am leaning towards the negative scenario being 0.01 now.

My original probabilities when there was the breakout from 0.004 but initial failure to make an ATH:
- 30% that the ATH will be made without serious retracement
- 50% that there will be a retracement to the 0.004 zone but it will generally hold and become a confirmed support
- 20% that 0.004 will not hold and we go back to the previous trading range and all the 50k volume pump is a false breakout.

Here I told to refrain from buying, because it is 70% probability that we turn down, and if we do, the gain is at least double in the amount. If, on the other hand, the ATH is breached, I told in advance to FOMO, because that would confirm the first scenario that you do not want to miss out.


Currently it's hard to form scenarios because we are in uncharted waters but something like:

- 30% rise will continue without longer pullback, only flashcrashes
- 30% consolidation at 0.01 to confirm that as support, or staying in 0.01-0.02 range
- 40% we go lower than 0.01 (because it was a pump, or BTC rallies, or many reasons)

Despite that I forecast 70% probability for a decline and only 30% for the rise, I still exhort to buy or at least hold, because there is no limit to the upside in the positive scenario, yet the negative ones are very well contained, and even if they happen, you still hold the XMR and it will go back up later.