[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nanobrain]

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

How about: the impending adoption of XMR by AlphaBay is not rumour, it has been 'news' for a week now.  Come 1st Sept it will move from being 'news' to being reality (and then I suppose the real test begins). So, perhaps your powerful rule of thumb is just not relevant to this scenario.

EDIT Paratox beat me to it.

[xmrlove]

XMR dev update Ethereum Contracts on XMR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVlQE-ObEXk   (ethereum style smart contracts talk for XMR at 25min in)

[aminorex]

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

It's a good rule of thumb, but in this situation,  isn't the news already out for days? That XMR gets adopted by DNMs isn't a rumor anymore.  Or are you talking about something other than DN adoption of XMR that will be revealed on September 1st?

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on - and these are the ones connected enough to be posting on BTT!

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.

I think we are with 6 hours now of a new ATH.  Maybe 8. It is way slower now, certainly.  Most of the net flow due to the news has already occurred, but it is still net positive flow.  When it becomes net negative, price will go down, and I consider 012 to be first major support right now, although our current level may become first major support, if we level up again.


However if I am wrong, I definitely am not committing to do a Godiva ride on the subway.

[nanobrain]

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

It's a good rule of thumb, but in this situation,  isn't the news already out for days? That XMR gets adopted by DNMs isn't a rumor anymore.  Or are you talking about something other than DN adoption of XMR that will be revealed on September 1st?

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on.

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.

"As a dictum it is not semantically objective." Sorry but that's just gibberish.

You go on to say that people 'wander in' and basically have not heard the news...ergo we have moved past rumour.
 

[cryptonic21]

One more article: http://sputniknews.com/science/20160829/1044728112/monero-cryptocurrency-transactions.html

[aminorex]

One more article: http://sputniknews.com/science/20160829/1044728112/monero-cryptocurrency-transactions.html

"As a dictum it is not semantically objective." Sorry but that's just gibberish.

You go on to say that people 'wander in' and basically have not heard the news...ergo we have moved past rumour.
 

If so, it is because of language differences.  It is perfectly clear in my mind.

You are focusing on the words, not the underlying facts and causes.  Please rescan the part that isn't gibberish to you.  Then your critique may be on-point.

I think a week ago, the bitwa.la news would have leveled us up 20% in a matter of hours.  Today... Meh.  Whatever.  Long term, though it is bigger than DNM news.  We will outgrow DNM dependency quickly - much, much more quickly than did bitcoin.

[CTTE]

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

It's a good rule of thumb, but in this situation,  isn't the news already out for days? That XMR gets adopted by DNMs isn't a rumor anymore.  Or are you talking about something other than DN adoption of XMR that will be revealed on September 1st?

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on.

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.

"As a dictum it is not semantically objective." Sorry but that's just gibberish.

You go on to say that people 'wander in' and basically have not heard the news...ergo we have moved past rumour.
 

Dig out your dictionary, this may be "obtuse" but it is not "gibberish". I find I have to do that fairly often when reading a post from Aminorex but, his language is extremely precise when he wants it to be.

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost:

downloads section on getmonero seems to be down.

From IRC:
 

<_Slack> <fluffypony> the mining testnet node is down
<_Slack> <fluffypony> completely borked an upgrade
<_Slack> <fluffypony> software upgrade, I mean
<_Slack> <fluffypony> unrelated to MM
<_Slack> <fluffypony> and that’s also killed the relays and my IRC bouncer
<_Slack> <fluffypony> have to wait for helping hands at the DC to go fix.

That's why getmonero.org is down too currently.

[Dafar]

Since it broke 015 i can see it get to 018 easily.... 018-019 will probably be the point it starts turning down again


03 by.... sep 30?

 

[tifozi]

XMR dev update Ethereum Contracts on XMR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVlQE-ObEXk   (ethereum style smart contracts talk for XMR at 25min in)

Men-at-work 

[aminorex]

Since it broke 015 i can see it get to 018 easily.... 018-019 will probably be the point it starts turning down again

wake me up when there's a lower low.  until then the trend hasn't reversed.  stalled yes.  reversed, no.

[Dafar]

Since it broke 015 i can see it get to 018 easily.... 018-019 will probably be the point it starts turning down again

wake me up when there's a lower low.  until then the trend hasn't reversed.  stalled yes.  reversed, no.

Wake me up when Monero is 0.03


I guess I will be sleeping for a long time?  



And I wasn't suggesting a trend reversal, more of a resistance + dip. The trend is probably bullish on the hype of DNM adoption until Sept 1st when people realize hype was over-hyped and transactions in XMR is not as high as people assumed

[dEBRUYNE]

MAAM #29 Monero Ask Anything Monday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/505i9j/maam_29_monero_ask_anything_monday/

[dEBRUYNE]

New Digital Currency Spikes After Giving Criminals More Secrecy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/new-digital-currency-spikes-after-giving-criminals-more-secrecy

[Altitude]

Im starting to short monero on polo. I have a feeling the bog crash is upon us. Hope im right though.

[smoothie]

Im starting to short monero on polo. I have a feeling the bog crash is upon us. Hope im right though.

Let's see if you are right...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Im starting to short monero on polo. I have a feeling the bog crash is upon us. Hope im right though.

I think we need to welcome this type of activity because they bring liquidity for the new adaption and buying. I am not convinced how profitable it is to sell though.. to crash big time you need to convince some early guy with large bag to sell to cover your position.

I am not selling but you can ask someone else if they are willing to dump...

[nioc]

Yesterday morning I was on a break at work, yes Sunday, when I received a call from my gf who is out of town.  During our conversation she commented that I sounded "exceedingly calm".  You guys might be excited but this is what this upswing has done for my mood.   She knows of btc and Monero and my involvement but is limited in her understanding of them or my personal holdings.  She has had opportunity to invest but has declined.  When she hears of the recent rise she will inevitably ask why I didn't get her some   So yesterday I bought her some @0.0143 that she as yet doesn't know.  Of course any profits will be hers and any loses will be mine

Buying @0.0143 I must be crazy

[tifozi]

Im starting to short monero on polo. I have a feeling the bog crash is upon us. Hope im right though.

Still don't see it, are you finished yet?

[Altitude]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.